Insights Now

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we delve into the evolving landscape of alternative investments and their growing role in institutional portfolios. As the world of alternative investing becomes more accessible, we’ll explore how institutions have historically leveraged these assets for diversification and enhanced returns. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor within our North America Institutional business, to discuss key themes such as vintage year diversification, liquidity considerations, and the importance of strategic and tactical asset allocation. Watch the video version on YouTube. Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives, Principles of Alternatives Investing, and Alternatives 2025 Outlook Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

U.S. equities have been on a tear in recent years. After climbing 26% in 2023, the S&P 500 finished up 25% on a total return basis in 2024, marking the best two-year stretch for the index since the late 90s. That said, with a select few companies driving the bulk of this rally, markets have become unbalanced, and concentration risk remains a significant issue heading into 2025. In times like these, active management is as important as ever. Our thirteenth season of Insights Now, titled “The Analyst’s Edge: A day in the life of equity research analysts,” will be all about the research backing our portfolio managers’ investment decisions. We will sit down with best-in-class buy-side equity research analysts from across J.P. Morgan, exploring a range of sectors and diving deeper into the most exciting trends driving markets today. With a new administration taking the White House, 2025 is likely to be another exciting yet volatile year for equity investors, so stay tuned to learn more about the opportunities we are following most closely. At the heart of the recent equity market rally sits the semiconductor industry. Home to companies like Nvidia, Broadcom and other key beneficiaries of the AI frenzy, semiconductor stocks gained over 75% in 2024, far outpacing the broader market. That said, semiconductor applications extend far beyond just artificial intelligence. Companies serving traditional end-markets, like automotive, consumers, aerospace or defense, have lagged behind. While artificial intelligence will remain a key source of demand for the industry, improving demand from these other end-users could drive the next leg of the rally. To share the latest on the semiconductor industry, Gabriela Santos, the new co-host, will be joined by Eric Ghernati, a technology-focused equity research analyst here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Watch the video version on YouTube. Resources: Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

As the U.S. economy continues its robust growth into 2025, this episode of Alternate Realities delves into the complexities of investing amidst challenges like inflation, interest rate volatility and market concentration. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Oksana Aronov, Head of Market Strategy and Alternative Fixed Income, and Hamilton Reiner, Portfolio Manager and Head of U.S. Equity Derivatives. They discuss the importance of diversification and strategic hedging in both fixed income and equity markets, emphasizing the need for absolute return strategies. The conversation also highlights the potential for unlocking value beyond the "magic seven" stocks, offering valuable insights into navigating today's evolving financial landscape. Watch the video version on YouTube. Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Despite last year's excellent returns in public markets, alternative assets are garnering increased attention due to their income diversification benefits, high equity valuations and the potential for above-trend inflation. As alternative investments become more accessible to the public, allocations to these assets are expected to rise in the coming years. This trend underscores the importance of general education and thought leadership in the field of alternative investments. This is precisely the mission of the Guide to Alternatives and the Alternative Realities podcast. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Aaron Mulvihill, the newest Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who will be focusing specifically on alternative assets. Watch the video version on YouTube. Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

The end of the year is near, and that means everyone is comparing their Spotify Wrapped and Apple Music Replays, making the case for why their most-listened-to song is the best. We wanted to do something similar for Insights Now. That is why, for our final episode of season 12, we will reflect on some of the most important takeaways from the 23 episodes we recorded this year. From exploring the fastest-growing themes in alternatives to navigating the complexities of the U.S. election, we’ve covered a lot of ground, so stay tuned as we recap our “greatest hits” of 2024. This episode explores the main themes and insights from the past year. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, the Chief Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and new co-host for the Insights Now podcast. Watch the video version on YouTube. Resources: Explore the full Investment Outlook here. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to explore the transportation sector's resilience amid geopolitical and market disruptions. we'll talk about how transport assets, like ships and planes, have shown stability during events such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The discussion highlights the sector's critical role in global trade, the impact of regulations like the Jones Act and the evolving landscape influenced by tariffs and China's economic activity. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Anurag Agarwal, Head Portfolio Manager for our Global Transportation Group, to discuss the distinction between opportunistic and core investment strategies in the transport sector, emphasizing the stability and income potential of leasing critical transport assets. Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In recent years, the notion of “correct” portfolio construction has been challenged and diversification has become unpopular. Stocks and bonds have shown an increased propensity to move together, calling into question the efficacy of the classic “60/40” portfolio. Moreover, sustained outperformance in select segments of global financial markets has caused portfolios to drift away from target allocations and left many investors with little motivation to allocate elsewhere. However, with a new year comes new forces driving markets, and the winners of the past may not be the winners of the future. To prepare portfolios for any unforeseen risks that may arise in 2025, diversification remains the best option, although the ways in which investors can diversify may look different than before. To share his thoughts on diversification in the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: Explore the full Investment Outlook here. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. The pandemic, geopolitical tension and climate change have revived industrial policy around the globe. In the U.S., the IIJA, IRA, and CHIPs act collectively represent the largest investment in infrastructure since the Cold War. In particular, there are significant opportunities in modernizing and expanding the electrical grid as decarbonization and data centers drive up demand. In addition to these secular tailwinds, core infrastructure’s steady, uncorrelated cash flows make it a valuable portfolio diversifier. Today, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Chris Simard, an Investment Specialist in the J.P. Morgan Infrastructure and Investment Group, to parse through all of this and more. Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. Despite uncertainty at the onset, 2024 is shaping up to be yet another impressive year for the economy and markets. A resilient consumer has put the U.S. on pace for another year of above-trend growth, and the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% so far, breaching $6,000 for the first time in history. That said, with a new year comes new opportunities as well as challenges. As the cyclical imbalances exacerbated by the pandemic and tight monetary policy continue to improve, economic conditions should normalize further in 2025, although a new element of policy uncertainty introduced by the incoming Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress threaten to cloud the outlook. While new policies might hurt prospects in some asset classes, they should benefit others, and investors have plenty to be excited about heading into the new year. To dive deeper into our 2025 outlook, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: Explore the full Investment Outlook here. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the current landscape of commercial real estate, highlighting opportunities beyond the office sector. We’ll talk about the ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., which has been made worse by past overbuilding, lack of workers and zoning issues. The industrial sector is thriving, driven by the rise in e-commerce and logistics, with a significant increase in delivery vehicles. Retail is evolving, with neighborhood strip centers and high-end luxury performing well, while middle-tier malls struggle. Real estate is a valuable component of investment portfolios, offering risk mitigation, inflation protection and consistent cash flow. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Chad Tredway, Head of Real Estate Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the opportunities he’s seeing on the market. Chad leads our investment management business in the United States for real estate and his team focuses on the $70 billion of real estate that we own. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00) Direct vs. Public market real estate investment (01:19) Housing shortage in the U.S. (02:23) The J.P. Morgan approach to single-family rentals (03:41) Office space recovery post-COVID (05:34) Industrial space and delivery trends (07:15) Retail space outlook (08:26) Real estate in investment portfolios (10:34) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. As we usher in a new year, the investment landscape is almost certainly set to change. That’s why in our twelfth season of Insights Now titled, “Preparing for the path forward,” Dr. David Kelly will sit down with portfolio managers and strategists from across J.P. Morgan to discuss their key takeaways from 2024, and what they expect from the economy and markets in 2025. With the new year just around the corner, tune in to hear what opportunities we are most excited about, and what risks we are most mindful of, heading into the new year. With the U.S. election in the rear-view mirror and the Federal Reserve finally easing policy, the forces driving financial markets in 2025 could differ greatly from 2024. Policy uncertainty should step in for election uncertainty, and the monetary policy debate will center around how quickly the Fed will cut, not when it will begin cutting. Still, with the U.S. economy displaying impressive resilience and structural tailwinds supporting prospects abroad, there remains a wide menu of attractive opportunities for investors to consider across global stocks and bonds, and plenty of ways to diversify. That said, markets can move quickly. Investors striving for alpha should be active in portfolios and allocate to their highest conviction ideas instead of sitting passively on the sidelines. To share some of his highest conviction ideas for the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager in our Multi Asset Solutions group here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources visit our website. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ash Williams, Vice Chair of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Ash served as Chief Investment Officer and Executive Director of the Florida State Board of Administration, where he oversaw $250 billion in assets. He has extensive experience as an institutional investor in both public and private markets. Throughout their conversation, they cover a range of topics surrounding the importance of alternatives in a portfolio and the best approach to constructing a portfolio with alternatives. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00:00) Risk and return within alternatives (01:27) Allocating capital toward alternatives (04:37) Process of picking specific alternatives (06:30) Institutional vs. individual portfolio allocations to alternatives (13:01) Importance of manager selection (15:40) Opportunities in alternatives today (17:06) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. On previous episodes, we’ve discussed the muted return outlook for a traditional 60/40 portfolio, and the return enhancing potential of Private Equity and Venture Capital. As companies wait longer to IPO, investors are turning to private markets for access to the fastest growing part of a business’s lifecycle. In this episode, we’re going to explore the opportunities in private healthcare and biotechnology. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gaurav Gupta, Managing Partner of Life Science Private Capital within J.P. Morgan Private Capital. He is a neurosurgeon turned investor, and we’re so excited to have him here to discuss the trends he’s seeing in the market. Timestamps: Typical healthcare investments (1:01) Investing in private healthcare vs. public healthcare (5:42) Private equity exits and valuations in healthcare (9:13) AI and drug development in healthcare (10:56) Regulatory changes within healthcare investment (16:06) Best opportunities in healthcare investment (18:33) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. On previous episodes, we’ve discussed what’s called the “democratization of alternatives.” Put simply, alternatives have become more accessible to individuals as the investment vehicles have evolved to address pain points like high minimums and long lockup periods. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The platform is designed to help clients navigate the world of alternative investments. We’ll hear from Anastasia about what iCapital does to help individuals feel confident investing in alternatives, as well as her perspective on the trends we’re seeing in the market. Resources: For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. The U.S election is just a few short weeks away, and many investors are picking through campaign-trail noise to decipher what policies each administration would pursue and their implications. With both Former President Trump’s and Vice President Harris’s campaigns promising hefty amounts of spending but few clues on how it will be funded, the longer-term trajectory for taxes, the deficit and federal debt is largely uncertain, but must be addressed. According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. debt held by the public as a percent of GDP is expected to increase from a likely 98% in fiscal 2024 to over 120% in 2034. This assumes that provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act sunset as scheduled and increase taxes by $4 trillion at the end of 2025. If these tax cuts are extended, however, debt held by the public could rise to 130% of GDP over the same period. Regardless, policies from either side of the aisle will impact the fiscal health of the United States, and as a result, the balance of risks and opportunities that investors must consider when building portfolios. Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the different paths forward for fiscal policy. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. Within our financial system, the idea that the Federal Reserve should operate as an independent entity is fundamental. Importantly, the Federal Reserve is a political institution that is accountable to Congress, but also to the public, and its independence ensures it can conduct monetary policy in a way that it perceives to be in support of its dual mandate without undue political pressures. However, some candidates on the campaign trail have expressed interest in giving other branches of government a say in the Fed’s decision-making process, meaning that this election could have major implications for the ways in which monetary policy is conducted, its efficacy and the public’s confidence in the central bank. To explore the implications of any changes to the Federal Reserve’s independence, Gabriela Santos is excited to be back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Listen to the audio version of the Insights Now podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on Youtube. In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the alternatives landscape from the perspective of the individual investor. Historically, these asset classes have been the domain of institutional capital, but the structure of alternative investment vehicles is evolving in ways that make them more accessible. Not only do individual investors have more access to alternatives, they also may have a greater need as the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges like elevated valuations, positive stock-bond correlation and a negative real yield. Additionally, as more companies are choosing to stay private for longer, alternatives allocations are becoming increasingly necessary to access these high-growth areas of the market. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Kristin Kallergis, the Global Head of Alternatives for the J.P. Morgan Private Bank, to discuss all of these themes. Kristin’s team manages $180BN of private wealth across a wide array of alternatives solutions, giving her unique insight into the evolution of this market. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00), Individuals vs. Institutions investing in alternatives (1:15), Liquidity needs within alternatives for individual investors (3:10), Selecting the right manager for alternatives (4:59), Popular asset classes within alternatives for individual investors (6:21), Niche asset classes (8:02), Private equity cash flow (10:12), Alternatives and secular themes (13:06) Resources: For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. Federal government regulatory policies have the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the investment opportunity set and both candidates for president have expressed strong opinions on regulatory issues. However, their attitudes on regulatory oversight appear to vary across industries and issues affecting the economy and society. In addition, their power to implement regulatory change is limited both by political realities and the courts. For investors, it is important to remember that it is policy, not politics, that matters most for markets and the economy. However, history suggests that regulatory policy may not always impact markets in the ways we’d expect. To dive deeper into proposed regulatory policies and their potential impacts, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. With comprehensive oversight and deep expertise in a diverse array of investment vehicles, including real estate, real assets, hedge funds, private equity, private credit and liquid alternative solutions, our mission is to demystify these often lesser-known asset classes. By providing clear, real-world examples, we aim to bridge the knowledge gap and empower investors to make informed decisions. Our goal is to bring these complex investment opportunities to life, showcasing their strategic value and how they can be effectively integrated into a diversified portfolio to achieve long-term financial objectives. Join us as Dr. David Kelly is joined by Brandon Robinson, Deputy Head of Private Markets, to discuss the different ways that adding alternatives into a portfolio can enhance clients’ outcomes and the benefits of private market investing. For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. As rising geopolitical tensions and the pandemic fallout have uncovered weaknesses in global supply chains, many nations have begun to rethink their trading relationships. U.S. policy, for example, has turned increasingly nationalistic, with recent administrations implementing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade, allocating funds toward domestic development of strategic industries and proposing other protectionist measures to support domestic activity. This election season, tariffs and trade have once again found themselves at the forefront of recent discourse, with both candidates proposing a stricter stance on trade policy, but to varying degrees and in different forms. Regardless of the outcome in November, these policies will have a profound impact on the global economy and have the potential to redefine the opportunity set across global financial markets. Today’s episode discusses whether tariffs have been effective in the past and explore the investment implications of a more strict trade policy. For this conversation, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, joins Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 2020 and 2021 were banner years for the private equity market as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted fundraising, deal and exit activity. More recently, however, macro uncertainty and higher interest rates have put a damper on the asset class, which is highly dependent on leverage. Still, better-than-expected economic growth has supported recent performance. As companies, particularly in the Technology sector, wait longer to IPO, private equity has become an increasingly important way to get exposure to the high growth potential of early-stage companies. For decades, investors have used private equity to supplement their public equity allocations, enhancing returns, reducing volatility and providing access to secular market trends. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ashmi Mehrotra, the Co-Head and Portfolio Manager within the Global Private Equity Group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the trends and investment opportunities she’s seeing in the asset class. Time stamps: Introduction (00:00), Types of PE investments most focused on (1:00), Secondaries and Co-investments (1:32), Sectors and types of companies (6:59), Implications of slowing M&A and IPO activity (10:42), What dynamics are going to drive PE activity? (11:59) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. So far, this U.S. election cycle has been nothing short of turbulent and a looming source of volatility for much of this year. With the summer now behind us and November quickly approaching, investors should more seriously consider the implications of the upcoming election, and the opportunities and risks that may arise from it. That is why for the 11th season of Insights Now, titled “The policy and investment implications of the U.S. election,” David and I will discuss topics at the forefront of this election season, and explore the impacts proposed policies could have on the markets and economy. We’ll cover a range of topics, from immigration and tariffs to taxes and Fed independence, so tune in to stay informed on what could drive volatility heading into November, and how you can better prepare your portfolio for a post-election world. Over the past year and a half, surging immigration has helped boost labor supply at a time when U.S. demographic trends were sluggish and recession fears were elevated, providing a nice tailwind for the labor market and the economy more broadly. At the same time, immigration has caused significant stress for migrants and the communities that they arrive in, making the issue one of the most politically sensitive topics this election season. For our conversation, we will focus on the magnitude of the recent immigration surge, discuss how long it can continue and explore what it might mean for the economy and corporate profits moving forward. To dive deeper into all this, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, will be co-hosting this season and will be joined by the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode: The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation has long been the accepted stalwart portfolio strategy. Currently, however, higher inflation has made the protection typically offered by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds less certain. Equity risk premiums are low, and interest rate volatility is high. On top of all that, public markets are becoming increasingly efficient, muting opportunities for excess return. As a result, investors are turning to Alternatives to ensure portfolios can still meet their long-term goals. Each alternative asset class has distinct characteristics and consequently a distinct role in portfolios. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Shawn Khazzam, Head of Private Wealth Alternatives, Americas, to discuss the different ways clients are using alternatives to enhance the risk-reward profile of their portfolios. Shawn is responsible for the growth strategy, sales and distribution of the private market alternative investments offered by the firm. Resources: For more insights on Alternatives visit our website here. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. The 2024 presidential election is well underway and has already delivered a host of surprising twists and turns. Against a backdrop of relatively stable economic growth and quite impressive U.S. stock market returns, the election adds a source of uncertainty for investors. Could the election outcome pose a risk to markets, or certain sectors and asset classes? And, in what can sometimes be a tense and polarizing time in society, how can investors navigate this uncertainty and invest with confidence this year? In the final episode of this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help address these questions.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Deficit spending is not at all a new phenomenon in the United States. In fact, it is the norm, and the U.S. has run a budget deficit in 81 of the last 95 years, or 85% of the time since 1929. What is abnormal, however, is how large the pile of U.S. debt has grown relative to the broader economy. In fiscal year 2023, U.S. debt held by the public ballooned to $26.3tn, or a striking 97% of GDP, while the budget deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, and projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the debt dilemma may only get worse in the coming years. With the election quickly approaching, and last year’s debt ceiling and downgrade drama still fresh in investors’ minds, we often get asked “How will rising federal debt impact the markets and the economy?” To help us dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, interviews the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Before 2021, the United States hadn’t seen a major bout of inflation for almost 40 years. And even when inflation peaked in June 2022, consensus estimates showed that most thought inflation would be almost back to 2% by the end of 2024. However, the journey to 2% has been more challenging than expected. Since mid-2023, inflation has remained in the 3-4% range, primarily due to persistently high shelter and auto insurance prices. This has caused the Fed to be on an extended pause. However, the latest CPI report brought some positive news, showing a month-over-month decline in prices for the first time in over a year. Year-over-year CPI inflation now sits at 3.0%, still well above a number consistent with the Fed’s 2% target for the personal consumption deflator. This episode explores if inflation can get back to its 2% target, the potential obstacles, and whether inflation even needs to be 2%. With this and the outlook for short-term interest rates being among the most dominant drivers of financial markets today, we think this discussion will be particularly useful. To help us dive deeper into this question, Mary Park Durham, Research Associate, will be interviewing the usual host, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Going into 2023, almost everyone was predicting a recession within the next 12 months. However, what we saw was quite the opposite: the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% year-over-year pace, and the unemployment rate stayed below 4%. This positive momentum has continued into this year, although the economy is gradually cooling. This robust economic performance has been puzzling because many of the typical recession indicators have been flashing red for a while. The U.S. had two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022, the yield curve remains inverted, and credit markets are notably tighter. Despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy has managed to stave off a recession and appears resilient to higher interest rates. This raises the question: how long can the U.S. continue to avoid a recession, and if one were to occur, what would likely trigger it? To help us dive deeper into this question, Mary Park Durham will be interviewing the usual host, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. After the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in December, many investors came into this year expecting multiple rate cuts. In fact, in early January, markets were pricing in over six full cuts in 2024 alone. Since then, sticky inflation has caused the Federal Reserve to reassert its hawkish tone, and the outlook for the economy, inflation and monetary policy has become increasingly uncertain. As a result of this, investors often ask us “When will the Federal Reserve begin cutting rates?” To dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, will be interviewing the regular host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Excitement around artificial intelligence has been a key driver behind strong market performance over the past year. This makes sense, as it has potential to be one of the most transformative technologies in modern history. That said, widespread AI implementation is still in its early stages, and its broader implications for the economy and investing remain unknown. This has left many investors wondering, “How will AI shape the markets and the economy?” To help answer this question, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Joe Wilson, Portfolio Manager, for a discussion on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on the economy and markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube. As technology has improved, so has market efficiency, and generating alpha through active management is as challenging a task as ever. In light of this, “tax alpha,” or creating value through tax management strategies, has grown in importance and popularity and has left investors asking, “How can I minimize taxes in your investment strategy?” For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for taxes, and how investors can minimize their tax burden.

Watch the video version on YouTube. From Baby Boomers to Generation Z, each generation has faced their own unique set of investment challenges and opportunities during their lifetimes. While the bulk of wealth in the U.S. belongs to older generations, wealth amongst younger generations is growing rapidly, and they represent an increasingly important piece of the investment pie. As advisors prepare for the next generation of investors, the question of “how do, and how should, different generations invest?” has been top of mind. To help answer this question, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. For more insights visit our website here.

Watch the video version on YouTube. A long cycle of U.S. equity outperformance over international equities has left investors wondering, “why add international stocks to a portfolio?” However, as the global economy has turned a corner, so have prospects for international equities, and many international markets have performed well in 2024 so far. In fact, more than half of the 50 top performing companies this year are located outside of the U.S. In addition to favorable valuations, an improving economic backdrop and positive fundamentals should highlight plenty of opportunities across the globe. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to share her views on the benefits of allocating internationally.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Most of this season is devoted to questions investors ask us about where to invest. However, given an increased focus on building tax efficient, transparent and flexible portfolios, we are also often asked, “How should I invest.” While traditional investment vehicles have made it difficult to reach all these objectives simultaneously, the emergence of actively managed ETFs are helping to reshape the investment landscape as we know it. While this technology is still relatively new, active ETFs are quickly becoming a critical piece of the investor toolkit. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jon Maier, Chief ETF Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help us learn more about the history of active ETFs, and how they can be used to build stronger portfolios.

For our next season, we want to hear from you as we will be counting down the top 10 questions investors have concerning the economy, the markets and investing. Please provide suggestions here. This episode concludes the ninth season of Insights Now and marks the end of our deep dive into the world of alternatives. As investors continue to face elevated valuations across equities and abnormal interest rate volatility, the case for investing outside of traditional markets is as strong as ever. Whether investors are searching for outsized returns, stable income or diversification, alternatives offer a solution that can achieve these outcomes, and we hope this season helped bring those opportunities to life. For our final conversation this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Anton Pil, the Global Head of Alternatives at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Anton sits in a very unique seat given he oversees our entire alternatives platform, so tune in to hear how he views the balance of risks and opportunities across the asset class. For additional insights on alternatives visit our website here.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Over the past year, investors have been inundated with negative reports of elevated mortgage rates and empty office buildings, weighing on their sentiment toward real estate investing. However, real estate comes in many shapes and sizes, and each sector has its own fundamentals and use cases in the portfolio construction process. In fact, while some segments may look more attractive than others, valuations across the asset class have reset as rates have climbed higher, and investors searching for diversification, steady income and inflation protection have an entirely new menu of opportunities to choose from. That said, after nearly a decade of suppressed interest rates, real estate investors may have to re-calibrate their approach for the return of a structurally higher cost of capital. To share how he is approaching the market against the backdrop of higher rates, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Doug Schwartz, a Co-President and Portfolio Manager within our Real Estate Americas Platform. Doug has been with the firm since 2004 and has almost 30 years of industry experience across a range of functions, including transactions, asset management and risk management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Over the last decade, extraordinarily low interest rates have made it difficult for investors to generate income within portfolios. While rates have risen over the past two years, so has bond market volatility and a higher correlation between stocks and bonds has made the search for uncorrelated sources of income even more difficult. However, at the same time, infrastructure has built a strong track record of generating steady income while exhibiting low correlation to a traditional portfolio and less sensitivity to economic and market risks given the essential nature of the assets. Against a backdrop of stretched valuations across risk assets and some uncertainty towards the outlook for monetary policy and inflation, there's no better time to discuss how investing in infrastructure can help build better portfolios. To share his views on the asset class, I'm joined by Nick Moller, an investment specialist and managing director within our Infrastructure investment group.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Coming out of the pandemic. Fiscal and monetary stimulus provided support for fundraising deals and exit activity within the private equity market. Even as fiscal stimulus has waned and the Federal Reserve has tightened policy. Better than expected economic activity and earnings have supported recent performance. For investors looking to supplement their public equity allocations, private equity can help enhance portfolio returns, as it has done for multiple decades and provide exposure to rapidly growing companies at the forefront of key market trends and themes. That being said, private equity does have the drawback of lower liquidity, and higher interest may pose a threat to future returns. For today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Stephen Catherwood, Co-head of our Private Equity Group with over 20 years of experience on the team. They dive deeper into the current balance of risks and opportunities in the private equity market.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Portfolio Managers from across J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help shed some light on the rapidly growing and increasingly important world of alternatives. These conversations will range from broad overviews of the entire opportunity set, to asset class-specific deep dives across private equities, private credit, real estate and more. Since 1950, the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has delivered a strong annualized return of 9.3%. However, with elevated valuations across U.S. equities and low bond yields relative to history, returns from public markets may be less impressive moving forward. That said, for those willing to venture outside of the classic 60/40, adding a sea of alternatives to a portfolio can meaningfully improve outcomes and enhance returns. Of course, there are many different types of alternative assets, each with their own distinct characteristics. For investors, understanding how to leverage these alternative strategies can make the difference between falling short of your long-term goals and surpassing them. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Pulkit Sharma, Head of Alternative Investment Strategy and Solutions here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the benefits of allocating to alternatives and the opportunities that he’s seeing across alternative asset classes. For more resources, please visit the Guide to Alternatives.

This year had no shortage of surprises for investors, from strong returns in stock markets to the impressive resilience of the U.S. economy. Along the way, we’ve confronted all sorts of shocks: a new war in the Middle East, Washington dysfunction, even higher interest rates while the labor market and consumer have seen continued strength. As we look to 2024, there is cause for both concern and optimism. A soft landing is still in view, but there’s a number of risks that could potentially divert us from that path. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the economic outlook for 2024. For more insights, read the full investment outlook here.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Successful long-term investing requires both the flexibility to navigate the ever-changing market tides and an engine of long-term assets to carry you forward. In this episode, we’re going to talk about both—how investors can build portfolios to navigate volatile market environments and generate better long-term returns. Such an endeavor requires an in-depth understanding of portfolio composition, the drivers of risk and return and the right mix of asset classes that are best suited for different market environments. In today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Corey Hill, Head of U.S. Portfolio Insights at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to dive into how his team is helping investors build stronger portfolios. Stress test your portfolios in future market scenarios (Powered by research from Dr. David Kelly), visit the tool here.

Watch the video version on YouTube. The menu of investment solutions has evolved dramatically over the last 10 years, as innovation in financial planning tools has enabled the development of customized and flexible strategies. This episode discusses one of model portfolios. With increased efficiency, better customization, and greater flexibility, model portfolios are built to navigate unpredictable market cycles while maintaining a focus on the needs of investors. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Beth Nardi, Head of Model Portfolio Distribution at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help us learn about model portfolios: what they are, who they’re made for and the investment challenges they’re designed to address.

Watch the video version on YouTube. Regardless of where you are in life, you need a plan for the future, and for most Americans, that involves planning for retirement. The task can feel overwhelming at times and easily be pushed aside for later, more pressing times. However, a well-constructed plan for the future not only helps ensure a secure retirement, but can be a powerful engine for savings and wealth generation. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Michael Conrath, Chief Retirement Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to guide us through the toolkit for retirement planning and the key strategies that individuals can leverage. Explore our insights on retirement strategies: https://bit.ly/3MDHxYd

Watch the video version of this podcast on YouTube. New and innovative technologies have disrupted industries time and time again, creating more efficient ways to reach desired outcomes. The financial services industry is no exception, and options for investing today look far different than they did 100 years ago. The exchange traded fund, or ETF, is one example of these technologies changing the ways that we invest. Investors may associate ETFs with passive management, but the recent growth of actively managed ETFs is challenging that assumption. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bryon Lake, Global Head of ETF Solutions at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss how investors are using active ETFs to harness the tools of active management in a complex investment environment.

Watch the video version of the podcast on YouTube. In this episode, we dive into alternative assets. Alternatives have seen incredible growth in the last decade, and have provided new strategies for investing in public and private markets, as well as better ways to generate alpha, income and diversification in traditional stock and bond portfolios. There are many kinds of alternative assets, and all have specific benefits and risks that require investors to understand each of them individually. Alternatives have also become much more accessible, and the growth of their overall asset size increasingly means that all investors—regardless of whether they’re actually invested or not—need to know what is happening in alternative markets. For this conversation, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Anton Pil, Global Head of Alternatives, who has led the impressive growth of the alternatives platform at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. For more insights on alternatives, visit our website here.

As we wrap up our summer series, Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist for the JP Morgan Investment Bank, to dive into the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Inflation has continued to moderate and economic data has proved resilient since the Fed’s July meeting, raising hopes for a soft-landing. Meanwhile, stock markets have continued to fare much better with investor sentiment resembling the start of a new bull market. For investors, many questions remain before we can call an “all-clear” on the economic outlook, and looking beyond the cycle, more structural changes may define long-term implications for the pathway of rates, growth and inflation. In this episode, two of JP Morgan’s most prominent thought leaders sit down to tackle many of these questions.

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube. While the broader economy has remained resilient this year, the real estate sector has faced its fair share of headwinds. Higher mortgage rates and home prices have weighed on the residential sector and tighter lending conditions following the regional banking crisis have created a challenging backdrop for commercial real estate. Additionally, it remains unclear whether pandemic-induced disruptions are merely temporary road-bumps, or the beginnings of a new “regime” within real estate. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Dave Esrig, a Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the trajectory of the real estate market.

Watch the video version of this podcast on our YouTube channel. For our second episode of Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the next generation of investors. They dive deep into how this younger demographic is shaping the investment environment and driving key themes in the markets today. For more resources on investing for the next generation please reach out to your J.P. Morgan representative and visit our website here.

Watch the video version of this podcast on YouTube. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, particularly generative AI, appear likely to revolutionize the way we work, innovate and create. This disruption can have significant economic implications, with the most significant likely to be accelerating labor productivity, and thus economic activity, after years of stagnation. In the first episode of our summer series Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, and Michael Albrecht, Global Strategist on the Multi-Asset Solutions Team, to discuss the broad range of implications AI may have on labor markets, economic growth and the future investment environment. As the importance of and attention to AI continue to grow, we are working hard at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to share our insights on the many questions regarding this technological wave. Please stay tuned for more insights by visiting the Market Insights homepage.

As we conclude this season, which we entitled a Bond’s Eye View of the world, a lot of core arguments for adding fixed income at the start of the year still remain in place. So far, the Fed has continued to hike rates but they may, finally, be at the end of their tightening regime, and if we are at peak rates, that means now is the time for investors to lock in yields before they fall. Bonds could also provide portfolios with important diversification properties as we eye this next downturn. So, as investors take a closer look at their cash and bond holdings, we hope this season has helped shed light on the different opportunities within bonds, and how to think about duration, credit and income within portfolios. To wrap up our last episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bob Michele, CIO and Head of our Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Group at JP Morgan Asset Management, for a conversation on his outlook for the economy, the Fed, and ultimately, bond markets.

In today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, portfolio manager in our Multi-Asset Solutions group at JP Morgan Asset Management. Phil manages portfolios with a global opportunity set, and in doing so is actively making decisions on how to allocate the pieces of the pie within portfolios. What's the optimal mix of stocks versus bonds? And then how do you allocate within those sleeves? Where can you get the best bang for your buck in terms of returns, while also managing risk in portfolios amidst an uncertain macro outlook? These decisions largely depend on relative valuations, the outlook for interest rates and growth, and the relative attractiveness of yields. In this episode, we’ll hear form Phil on how he’s shifting the dials in portfolios right now, and the slice he's allocated to fixed income.