Illinois Policy Podcast

There is an "endless appetite" for spending in Springfield, but who is actually paying the bill? Former Deputy Republican Leader Tom Demmer pulls back the curtain on the chaotic, high-stakes game of the Illinois state budget on the latest episode of the Illinois Policy Podcast. As Governor Pritzker prepares his annual budget address, Illinois faces a potential structural deficit. Despite failed attempts at a progressive income tax, state spending continues to rise, driven by pension liabilities and Medicaid expansion. This episode analyzes the General Revenue Fund (GRF), the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) projections, and the economic impact of having the nation's highest corporate tax rates. We discuss the need for a spending cap, the reality of outmigration, and fiscal reforms needed to stabilize the Illinois economy.

Is Chicago in an economic death spiral or an undervalued investment opportunity? In this episode, we sit down with investor and former corporate lawyer Stu Loren to analyze the hard data on Chicago's economic trajectory. The findings are eye-opening: the average Chicago worker is effectively 10% poorer today than they were five years ago, and the city is growing at a fraction of the rate of Sun Belt competitors like Austin and Nashville. But the conversation takes an unexpected turn. Despite the challenges, Stu makes a compelling contrarian case that Chicago's economic struggles may have created a rare buying opportunity. With emerging strengths in nuclear power, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and logistics, Chicago has the fundamentals to stage a major comeback—if city leadership can implement the right reforms. We dig deep into the numbers behind Chicago's pension crisis, examine what the data really says about public safety, break down the high-stakes Chicago Bears stadium standoff, and expose the massive inefficiencies plaguing Chicago Public Schools. Whether you're a Chicago resident, business owner, investor, or just someone interested in urban economics and public policy, this episode delivers the data-driven analysis you won't find anywhere else. Is Chicago a buy, sell, or hold? Listen now to find out.

Chicago and Illinois are dedicating nearly a third of their revenues just to pensions and retiree benefits — starving public safety, infrastructure, and basic services. In this episode, JPMorgan market strategist Michael Cembalest breaks down the real numbers behind Illinois’ pension crisis, from unfunded liabilities to 911 response times and outmigration.

Chicago is facing record outmigration, failing schools, and rising taxes. In this debut episode, Paul Vallas—former Chicago Public Schools CEO and 2023 mayoral candidate—joins us to break down why families are leaving Chicago, how the Chicago Teachers Union controls city policymaking, the real state of crime and safety, and how things could have been different. Listen now and subscribe to the Illinois Policy Podcast for honest conversations about Illinois’ future. 00:00 – Chicago’s Crisis: Crime, Taxes, Schools 00:41 – Welcome to the Illinois Policy Podcast 01:07 – Introducing Guest: Paul Vallas 01:25 – What Could Have Been Different? 02:03 – Chicago’s Public Safety Problem 03:17 – Housing & Development Failures 04:03 – Springfield: Missed Opportunities 06:00 – Teachers Union’s Grip on Chicago 07:19 – CPS Staffing & Spending Issues 09:22 – Why Families Are Leaving Chicago 12:03 – How Schools Were Reformed in the Past 14:01 – Local Control and Magnet Schools 15:52 – Lowering Education Standards 18:22 – Attacks on Testing & Accountability 20:03 – Charter and School Choice Options 22:16 – Failing “Sustainable Community Schools” 24:19 – How Unions Block Real Options for Families 25:13 – Public Safety: The Reality vs. Rhetoric 27:18 – Schools, COVID, and the Crime Spike 28:39 – How Prosecutors Changed Crime Trends 29:39 – Domestic Violence on the Rise 30:39 – Why Crime is Underreported 33:30 – Chicago as a “Sanctuary City for Criminals” 35:09 – Police Staffing and Crime Correlation 37:14 – CTA Safety and Ridership Decline 39:11 – Chicago’s Future Forecast 41:07 – The Three Financial Crises Facing the City 42:51 – Who Will Lead Chicago Next? 44:23 – Cook County Politics & Preckwinkle’s Influence 45:46 – Closing Thoughts with Paul Vallas

The new, 103rd Illinois General Assembly session starts today. What are the key issues incoming lawmakers should address? Bryce Hill, director of fiscal and economic research at the Illinois Policy Institute, recommends three solutions Illinois legislators could pursue to solve long-term problems and grow opportunity in Illinois.

The Chicago Teachers Union and other teachers' unions oppose Invest in Kids, a tax-credit scholarship program that allows underprivileged children to attend private schools of their choice. Why would teachers advocate against a program that helps low-income students? Mailee Smith, staff attorney and director of labor policy at Illinois Policy Institute, refutes opponents' false claims about the program and explains why the Illinois General Assembly should reinstitute Invest in Kids during its next session.

The new year will bring new state laws, many of which passed before lawmakers and the public had time to review them. How will these complex laws change life in Illinois? Joe Tabor, director of policy research at Illinois Policy Institute, gives an overview of Illinois' new laws for 2023 from the controversial SAFE-T Act to a new constitutional amendment.

The COVID-19 pandemic introduced many Illinois parents to the concept and practice of school choice. What is school choice and why has it become such a politicized issue? Nathan Hoffman, director of state policy and legislative strategy for the American Federation for Children, joins us to discuss the benefits of school choice and why Illinois should extend Invest in Kids, a state tax-credit and school-choice scholarship program.

Both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, small businesses led Illinois' job growth. What policies can the state adopt to further encourage small-business growth and promote economic vitality in Illinois? Bryce Hill, director of fiscal and economic research at the Illinois Policy Institute, shares his recommendations on today's episode

The consolidated election will give voters a chance to elect their local school board members, who influence spending on property tax bills and make other important decisions regarding education. While the election isn’t until April 4, 2023, petitions to run for school board are due Dec. 19. Director of Labor Policy Mailee Smith explains why local elections are so important. She breaks down what to know if you want to get active in local school board races.

Voting polls have opened for the Nov. 8 general election and Illinois residents can cast their in-person votes at locations statewide. What's at stake for Illinois? Bryce Hill explains what voters need to know about everything from Amendment 1 to the gubernatorial race to how many candidates are running for Statehouse office.

With only a few days left until Election Day, Illinois' government unions continue to tout Amendment 1, a proposed constitutional amendment at the top of the Nov. 8 ballot. Amendment 1's chief sponsor admitted the amendment cannot protect all Illinois workers -- so why are proponents still saying it can? Mailee Smith, director of labor policy at Illinois Policy Institute, explains why Amendment 1 is a "legal trick" that would hurt more workers than it would help if it passes.

Many misleading narratives surround Amendment 1, the proposed constitutional amendment at the top of the Nov. 8 ballot that proponents disingenuously call a "Workers Rights Amendment." Mailee Smith, director of labor policy at Illinois Policy Institute, identifies the top Amendment 1 myths that have spread during election season in this week's episode of The Policy Shop.

Three years after the Chicago Teachers Union went on its last strike, the CTU maintains that its job is to represent teachers. But is that really what CTU does? Director of Labor Policy Mailee Smith reviews how CTU leadership's top priorities do not include representing its adult members nor serving the children in their care.

New research from the Illinois Policy Institute projects that commercial property taxes for Illinois businesses will grow to almost $2 billion by 2026. Amendment 1 on the Nov. 8 ballot would likely increase that amount even more. Illinois Policy Institute Vice President Austin Berg explains why Amendment 1 would make Illinois' notorious business climate even worse.

Illinois gubernatorial candidates Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Darren Bailey will face off in their first debate on Thursday, Oct. 6. And the no. 1 issue voters care about right now? The economy. Illinois' economy isn't as rosy as Gov. Pritzker sells it to be. Bryce Hill explains how Illinois' economy is performing and what it means for voters.

Illinoisans pay the second highest property taxes in the nation. If Amendment 1 passes, not only will that remain status quo, but it’s also expected for taxes to rise significantly. Find out how much your property taxes could go up if Amendment 1 passes at illin.is/taxcalc. Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop with more.

Nationwide, there is a broad, far-reaching narrative that there are not enough teachers and that the teacher shortage is a huge problem to be solved. What is the truth about Illinois? While some districts are struggling, the data from Illinois State Board of Elections show over the last decade, Illinois has 45,000 more teachers but 180,000 fewer students in public schools. Director of Labor Policy Mailee Smith joins the Policy Shop to break down what may be happening.

Voters in both Tennessee and Illinois face an Amendment 1 on their respective Election Days. But they're very different amendments with very different outcomes that will drive the two states in very different directions. Mailee Smith tells the Policy Shop how Tennessee's amendment will help bolster its business environment while Illinois' amendment will have the opposite effect.

At the very top of the ballot Nov. 8 is a proposed amendment to be added to the Illinois Constitution. Touted by proponents as a way of helping workers, the truth is the amendment would hike taxes on all Illinoisans and cement Illinois' reputation as an un-friendly place to do business. Mailee Smith breaks down everything voters need to know on this episode of the Policy Shop.

Most of the nation has recovered from the pandemic economic downturn, but Illinois hasn’t: the state is still missing nearly 89,000 jobs compared to February 2020. Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop to talk about what’s affecting Illinois’ job market and hindering its labor force.

Chicago Public Schools students and families returned for the 2022-23 school year. But with record low enrollment, one-third of those schools will be half-empty. Mailee Smith joins the Policy Shop to share why militant tactics from the Chicago Teachers Union have led to higher CPS costs, lower enrollment and lower test scores.

Illinois unions members give hundreds of dollars a year to union dues. But most of that money is spent on politics - not representing workers' interests or protecting them. Mailee Smith follows the money. She joins the Policy Shop to show where government union money goes and why Amendment 1 would harm all Illinoisans.

After a few years of homes flying off the market, signs are indicating the market is starting to cool. Is a housing bubble going to burst? Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop to discuss what’s going on in Illinois' housing world, how prices fare today and what to expect next.

Recession is the buzzword of the week as the economy begins to cool. So, are we in a recession or no? And what does that mean for Illinois? Director of Fiscal and Economic Research Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop to talk about the state and national economic picture. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

Speculation is brewing that Gov. Pritzker is testing the waters for a presidential run. What would a Pritzker presidency look like? Let his Illinois record serve as a guide. Austin Berg joins the Policy Shop to talk through Pritzker’s failures on budget, tax and economic policy. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

Gov. Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot are out on national and international tours, respectfully, touting their recent economic wins. But Illinoisans left at home face a dire jobs market: 1 in 6 jobs lost during COVID are still missing in Chicago and Illinois. Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop to discuss the state’s economy and what it means for large and small businesses alike.

Voters will decide the fate of Amendment 1 on Nov. 8; the first time Illinoisans have an opportunity to vote against rising property taxes. Austin Berg joins the Policy Shop to explain why Amendment 1 would cause homeowners to experience a $2,000 property tax hike. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

It was a bad month for big businesses in Illinois as Boeing, Caterpillar and Citadel announced they're moving their headquarters out of Chicago. Illinois Policy Institute President Matt Paprocki joins the Policy Shop to discuss what these businesses' departures mean for the state. And how state leaders can turn things around. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

Voting is the most important action a citizen can take to ensure his or her voice is heard in government. Increased voter turnout is good for our communities - locally and statewide. Jim Long joins the Policy Shop to explain a new initiative that will increase voter turnout. He also breaks downs common myths and misconceptions about voting by mail. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

Illinois has seen hundreds of thousands of residents move away in recent years. Maybe you’ve even wondered whether you should move, too. But nothing is permanent, and Illinois’ people problem is something we can fix. Matt Paprocki joins the Policy Shop to talk about how to turn the tide on Illinois’ challenges and who he’s talking to to fix the state’s problems. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

New numbers on public school enrollment show the more school districts kept students from the classroom and in-person learning, the more those schools saw enrollment decline. Amy Korte joins the Policy Shop to walk through what the numbers show about Illinois and talk about what’s next for public policy battles that affect education. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

What's the deal with Illinois' population? Are we gaining residents like Gov. Pritzker has recently said or are we losing residents, as has been reported for seven straight years? Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop to break down the Census Bureau releases and share the truth about Illinois' population story. Learn more by subscribing to the Policy Shop newsletter at illin.is/newsletter.

Inflation is hitting record highs across the nation and higher prices are affecting everyone, everywhere in the country. In Illinois, we face unique challenges, such as multiple layers of taxation that already makes gas costlier than neighboring states. The result of a more expensive cost of living is that many Illinoisans have essentially experienced a pay cut. Bryce explains what Illinoisans need to know about rising prices and what to do about it.

Other states across the country, including many of Illinois' neighbors, have recently cut taxes, often permanently. But Illinois is going the opposite direction, hiking taxes on residents and businesses. Adam Schuster explains why how the state is stuck. Subscribe to the Policy Shop newsletter to learn more at: illin.is/newsletter

Voters in Illinois may have same-day voter registration and vote-by-mail options, but a form of voter suppression still plagues the state: roughly half of Illinoisans have no choice when it comes to who will represent them in the Statehouse. That's set to change in 2022 with the most competitive election in 24 years. Adam Schuster joins the Policy Shop to talk about why ballot choice is so important to democracy.

Tuition at Illinois public universities has skyrocketed over the past 15 years, making college unaffordable for many families. Adam Schuster explains what’s causing this rise and what it means for future students.

The most important and alarming issue on the Nov. 8 general election ballot is the Workers Rights Amendment, also known as Amendment 1. Mailee Smith breaks down a major lawsuit related to the amendment and what voters need to know about the issue.

In 2021, Chicago issued more automatic speeding tickets than there were residents of the city. Why? The city's reliance on nickel-and-dime revenue is pushing bad policy choices that unfairly burden low-income residents. Adam Schuster talks Chicago speed cameras and why these fines are so regressive in nature.

Illinois lawmakers pulled an all nighter to adjourn spring legislative session and pass a $46.5 billion budget by 6 a.m. on April 9. What did lawmakers accomplish? Adam Schuster joins the Policy Shop to talk through the line items. From stimulus checks for residents to mandatory signs touting gas tax relief, Illinois saw an election year budget that kicks the can on solving Illinois' problems until after residents cast their vote.

Between historically low interest rates and the pandemic-fueled need for more space, the U.S. housing market has been on fire. Orphe Divounguy joins the Policy Shop to provide an in-depth look at Illinois' real estate market and how it compares with the rest of the nation.

Gas prices are skyrocketing across the country. And while the pain is felt nationwide, gas prices are always worse for Illinoisans, where drivers pay the second-highest gas taxes in the nation. Adam Schuster joins the Policy Shop to breaks down the various layers of taxes that drive pain at the pump in Illinois.

Former House Speaker Mike Madigan was the longest serving House Speaker in the nation and at one time the most powerful politician in Illinois. In March, he waas indicted on federal racketeering charges. Fixing Illinois' longstanding history corrupution goes passed rooting out one man. Austin Berg joins the Policy Shop to explain how Madigan got and kept his power and how illinois moves forward to fix corruption forever.

March 12 marked two years since Gov. J.B. Pritzker imposed some of the nation’s strictest COVID-19 mandates, creating uneven rules that favored large over small businesses. Many Illinois business owners had to close shop permanently, while others are finding ways to reinvent their business. How is the Illinois jobs recovery now two years into the pandemic? Bryce Hill explains more on the Policy Shop.

Lots of businesses tried to get started during 2021 in Illinois, but the ones that create jobs had a tough time launching. That’s why Illinois unemployment remains high and salaries depressed during a national labor shortage. Bryce Hill joins the Policy Shop to explain.

The number one fiscal priority for Illinois lawmakers is something most aren’t talking about: refilling the trust fund for unemployment insurance. Otherwise, small businesses face another tax hike after a grueling two years in which many businesses struggled and failed. The best way to prevent a large tax hike on businesses is to use what is left of the American Rescue Fund Act money. Adam Schuster explains more on the Policy Shop.

Guest: Mailee Smith

Guest: Orphe Divounguy

Guest: Dr. Orphe Divounguy

Guest: Adam Schuster