ICIS - chemical podcasts

Collapsing second quarter financial results show that the industry may face permanently low growth, driving the need for radical business model transformation. - Q2 financial results show persistent downturn in sales, profitability- Europe chemicals still plagued by China-driven global overcapacity, higher production costs, poor downstream demand- BASF reports double-digit fall in net income, weighed by lower prices. Warns of second half risks from stronger price reduction, lower volume growth- Dow CFO said consumer durables, building and construction will likely remain weak through the rest of the year - Need for widespread closures to balance supply and demand- Chemical companies need to adopt radical new business models- End of China’s economic miracle means there will be no return to strong demand growth globally

European petrochemical leaders should take inspiration from Japan, which is further ahead in reducing base chemicals while expanding in specialties and low carbon technologies. - Japan hit by high naphtha feedstock costs, growing global overcapacity- 70% of crackers are more than 50 years old- More than 10% of Japan’s crackers could close- Downstream production also closing such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and paraxylene (PX)- Japan basic chemicals losing ground, new focus on specialties - Pushing materials for semiconductors, electronics - Also expanding into bio-naphtha and pyrolysis oil - Japan’s chemical companies want to licence recycling technologies- Using ammonia and hydrogen to reduce dependence on LNG- South Korea chemicals face existential crisis

Typhoon Gaemi will test the resilience of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply chain, causing temporary shipment delays and port closures.

CHENGDU (ICIS) -- Asia’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) market has been relatively flat in recent months, a situation that has been prolonged by the persistent supply overhang in Asia and the lack of demand outlets. Weak performance in derivative epoxy resins market to endure Reduced run rates likely to remain a key response from ECH makers Upcoming capacities to add pressure on a structurally long supply picture In this podcast, markets reporter Michelle Liew discusses trends in the Asia ECH market, as well as the near-term outlook.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- China's installed capacity of gas power generation is projected to surpass 150 GW by 2025, representing roughly 6% of the country's total installed power generation capacity. This presents substantial investment prospects within China and aligns with the nation's ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Hydrogen, often regarded as a potential fuel for blending with natural gas, offers a promising avenue for reducing emissions from power generation. In this podcast, ICIS senior LNG analyst Xu Fei will delve into the mechanics of hydrogen-fueled gas turbines and their potential to significantly cut carbon emissions.

Senior Editor for PET, Caroline Murray, and Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball talk about the current state of the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET (R-PET) markets and the uncertainties both face for the rest of the year. These include: PET feedstock situation High freight costs impacting availability Capacity growth in Asia Upcoming recycled content targets for R-PET Limited availability of food-grade R-PET pellets

SHANGHAI (ICIS)—In this podcast, markets reporter Shannen Ng discusses how northeast Asia’s methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) supply is expected to remain tight as Q3 progresses, however, poor demand expectations in the Asian import markets for the rest of this quarter remain. Polymeric MDI sentiment in SE Asia, India supported by tight supply Monomeric MDI particularly sluggish and expected to remain so Weak demand outlook for China’s downstream construction and automotive sectors

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- In this podcast, Asia ethylene editor Josh Quah and analyst Aliena Huang discuss the factors impacting arbitrage flows of ethylene from the US to Asia. Spot arbitrage window between US and Asia closed but term arrivals for July remain healthy Storm Beryl, low affordability in Asia, may keep spot arbitrage trades closed into Aug Panama Canal traffic levels expected to return to pre-congestion levels by Oct

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- In this podcast, ICIS analysts Patricia Tao, Lewis Unstead and Aliena Huang delve into how the upcoming CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) will impact China’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors and hydrogen’s crucial role in its low-carbon economy. China's national energy law draft includes hydrogen, a shift towards low-carbon Move comes ahead of EU's CBAM CBAM to affect global trade, particularly for high-emission products

LONDON (ICIS) -- Europe’s run up to holiday season has been unusually busy for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets, including some spot prices reversing for the first time since March 2024.In this ICIS podcast, European PE and PP senior editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake pick out July’s big themes, from logistics (hurricane Beryl and still-spiked Asian freight rates) to the mismatch between how local suppliers and converters are experiencing demand this month.They also highlight what to watch for August.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, which shows that corn production is forecasted to increase by 240m bushels while for soybeans the outlook is for a decrease by 15m bushels.Senior editor Mark Milam talks to Sylvia Traganida about the report and the latest developments in the US market.

Rampant overcapacity in China will change as limits to refinery expansions and new plants may stifle feedstock availability. - Big structural reforms needed to improve China’s economy- China petrochemical trends become more complicated - Country plans to cap refinery capacity at 1 billion tonnes/year from 2027-2040- China forging closer relations with Saudi Arabia- Swift rise in China electric vehicles threatens petrochemical feedstocks- Zero carbon rules limit future plant construction in China- Europe needs to act fast to protect its industry

Caprolactam (capro) availability in Europe has been very tight until recently due to a shortage of sulphur and low downstream demand. Slow capro demand has also helped balance the market.Senior capro editor Marta Fern talks to senior editors Julia Meehan and Sylvia Traganida about current developments in the market and what lies ahead.

The US overtook the Middle East for the first time as China’s largest supplier of propane and butane in the first half of 2024.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- China is pushing ahead with plans to meet its national emissions targets by facilitating low carbon hydrogen production through regulatory reforms. China’s hydrogen production and demand have been increasing steadily in recent years but renewable hydrogen, a critical enabler for hard-to-abate industries to reduce carbon footprints, accounted for less than 2% of China's total hydrogen production in 2023.China has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emission by 2035 and carbon neutrality by 2060.ICIS Asia deputy news editor Nurluqman Suratman and ICIS hydrogen analyst Yu Yunfeng discuss China’s hydrogen developments on this podcast.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) — Asia propylene will continue to see new capacities coming from China in H2 2024, while its demand is also likely to improve as new derivative projects come up.Margin challenges may continue to impact the market by altering propylene and its derivatives’ operations. As China is the largest producer and consumer globally, dynamics in the country will impact the wider Asia propylene market. What will be the outlook for propylene in 2024? In this podcast, analysts Joey Zhou and Seymour Chenxia discuss the trends and outlook for the Asia propylene market.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- China's recent decision to include hydrogen in its draft national energy law signals a transformative shift in the country's energy landscape.By positioning hydrogen alongside traditional energy sources, China is unlocking vast investment opportunities and paving the way for robust market growth in the burgeoning hydrogen sector.In this podcast, ICIS analysts Patricia Tao and Yu Yunfeng delve into how this strategic focus on hydrogen will reshape China's energy sector and foster sustainable industrial growth.

Climate change and warming oceans mean that the US Gulf Coast chemical sector will have to adapt to more frequent weather events such as Hurricane Beryl.- Gulf Coast area where Hurricane Beryl made landfall houses 13m tonnes, 29% of US ethylene production capacity- Beryl is earliest Category five hurricane on record; busy season forecast- Warming oceans mean there may be double the number of severe hurricanes - Energy, chemical industries must adapt to cope with more weather events- Move towards net zero carbon gives opportunity to relocate plants, infrastructure

Squeezed by high propane costs and weak propylene prices, some Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) operators are turning to a potential lifeline: commercializing hydrogen, a valuable byproduct of their operations.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- The ICIS recycling analyst team recently presented on Asia’s recycling market at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Seoul, Korea, and at Alliance to End Plastic Waste’s CEO round table in Beijing, China. Join recycling analysts Joshua Tan and Chua Xin Nee in this podcast as they have a conversation about key takeaways from both events, pyrolysis in Korea, and recycling in China. If you would like to know more about Asia’s recycling market, feel free to reach out to our recycling analysts at [email protected] and [email protected].

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- The ICIS recycling analyst team recently presented on Asia’s recycling market at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Seoul, Korea, and at Alliance to End Plastic Waste’s CEO round table in Beijing, China. Join recycling analysts Joshua Tan and Chua Xin Nee in this podcast as they have a conversation about key takeaways from both events, pyrolysis in Korea, and recycling in China. If you would like to know more about Asia’s recycling market, feel free to reach out to our recycling analysts at [email protected] and [email protected].

Chemical companies can expect to pay even more for container space along the Asia to Europe route as attacks against shipping persist, port congestion grows and demand rises. - Shipping rates soar amid congestion, rising demand, echoing post-pandemic era- Shipping reliability, customer service levels have fallen- Shippers reorganizing routes, focussing on big ports like Singapore- Global container shipping capacity growing by 20% year-on-year - Container fleet utilization over 90% despite rising supply- End of Houthi Red Sea attacks would cause freight rates to collapse- Demand rising for containers even though industrial demand is flat - Huge investment in port, road, rail infrastructure especially in Asia- Logistics problems leave oversupply trapped in Asia- More trade barriers may protect regional markets

In this podcast, ICIS analyst Claire Gao explores the oxo-alcohols market overview and outlook.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s base oils supply is expected to improve slightly in H2 2024, while overall demand will likely improve towards the later part of Q3 with the onset of the seasonal peak. Group I brightstock supply from southeast Asia and Group II supply from South Korea expected to gradually increase India demand to pick up in September after monsoon; China demand to remain stagnant amid economic woes Tight Group I base oils supply to remain offset by sluggish demand In this podcast, editors Matthew Chong and Michelle Liew discuss trends in the Asian base oils market.

LONDON (ICIS)--European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor, Melissa Hurley, explores the global glycol situation with Judith Wang, Cindy Qiu, Melissa Wheeler and Antulio Borneo. Asia tug of war between limited imports and sluggish demand Downstream polyester plants may cut operating rates further in China China MEG inventories fluctuated between 700,000 and 800,000 in June European import supply set to improve in July Tropical storm Alberto brings heavy rainfall but no impacts to gulf coast production MEG US demand could be affected by the issues with PTA plants in Mexico Additional reporting from senior editor Judith Wang, Cindy Qiu and Melissa Wheeler and Antulio Borneo.

LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols market and the majority of its derivatives have been characterized by ample supply in June, particularly following the lifting of OQ Chemicals' force majeure at the end of May.Demand across most markets remains tepid and slow due to ongoing economic challenges. The construction and coatings industries have not experienced the expected seasonal surge.Butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye speaks to oxo-alcohols reporter Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers reporter Cameron Birch and acrylate esters reporter Mathew Jolin-Beech about market dynamics down the oxo-alcohols value chain.

In this podcast, we will have Mason to talk about China MMA market.

ICIS consultant, James Ray, describes how the shale gas revolution has benefited the US economy and chemicals plus views on demand and the green transition.- US shale gas revolution has helped entire economy- Low energy costs key driver of economic growth- Post-pandemic soaring demand, crimped supply pushed margins very high- US chemicals margins have now normalised, companies profitable- US construction market hurt by inflation, high interest rates- US auto industry improving but inventory still high- Companies, consumers less willing to pay green premium in tough times- Economics, incentives drive US business decisions- US incentives much more effective than Europe sanctions

China's propane import growth is expected to remain strong this year although local authorities have been encouraging food catering and residential end-users to switch from bottled LPG to piped natural gas (PNG). In this podcast, ICIS LPG analysts Yan Wang , Lillian Ren and natural gas editor Yueyi Yang discuss the current market dynamics and outlook.

LONDON(ICIS)--European downstream demand remains low due to inflation and high interest rates. Add logistics issues and a continuous flow of imports to that, and the doom of European petrochemical industry begins. But with the recent reduction in interest rates by ECB and increased tariffs on Asian EVs, there is hope that the acetone and phenol derivative chain might come back to its glory. Europe ICIS editors Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins), Meeta Ramnani (polycarbonate), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate) and ICIS senior analyst Michele Bossi (Aromatics & Derivatives) discuss the latest development in imports, bans and interest rates that are likely to impact the acetone, phenol and derivatives markets.

Senior Editors for Recycling, Emily Friedman and Matt Tudball take a look at how both the US and European R-PET markets are seeing more activity around imported material, and what that means for local recyclers in the US and the EU, including: The growing numbers of imports into the US Price competitiveness of imports vs. local material Balancing recycled content with cost-saving objectives How imports stack up against legislation in Europe

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia recycled polymers markets were sluggish for the most part in 2023. In early 2024 too, challenges that dim the short-term outlook persist.Some legislations surrounding recycling were also put in place in the region over the last few years, but the obstacles that limit the growth of this sector still remain.In this chemical podcast, ICIS senior editor Arianne Perez and analysts Joshua Tan and Chua Xin Nee share their insights on the topic.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Propane in northeast Asia is losing its advantage over naphtha as a cracking feedstock, but the spread is expected to widen again in August-September due to higher naphtha forecast prices. Propane price spread over naphtha below $50/tonne for the first time since end-January NE Asia propane firm on year-to-date high China PDH plants run rates Crackers using imported propane require about two months to evaluate feedstock economics In this podcast, ICIS LPG analysts Yan Wang and Shihao Zhou discuss the current market dynamics and outlook.

While the butanediol (BDO) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) markets in Europe have benefited from challenges in importing volumes from Asia, demand remains subdued for sectors.In this podcast, ICIS Europe Engineering Plastics editor Meeta Ramnani and ICIS Europe BDO editor Yashas Mudumbai discuss the current dynamics and the outlook ahead.

Methanol has long-term potential as a major player in the energy transition, especially for use a marine fuel.- Methanol mainly made from coal in China, natural gas elsewhere- Used to make formaldehyde, acetic acid, in China mainly coal-based methanol to olefins (MTO)- Q2 typically peak demand for Europe construction but subdued this year- Concerns about overcapacity globally as new projects come onstream- Use a marine fuel may be a big driver of growth long term- Energy transition offers great opportunities

Jumping freight rates, political changes and monsoons are all at play for June in various polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets around the world, so while it is potentially a calm month on the surface, there’s a complex mix of factors to watch.Senior editors for PE and PP, Nadim Salamoun and Ben Lake join senior editor manager Vicky Ellis to discuss the June outlook for Europe, Middle East, South Asia and Africa.

The sentiment for most fertilizer products is bearish due to a lack of strong demand globally.Following the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) annual conference in Singapore the ICIS fertilizer team discusses the latest trends and developments in the market.

MOL’s €1.3bn polyols project helps move the company’s balance from transport fuels towards chemical production, according to Peter Csaszar, senior vice president, chemicals. - Long-term, Hungary’s MOL will move towards chemicals as demand for transport fuels declines- Russia-Ukraine war raised importance of energy security - Commercial scale start-up of polyols project by end summer-early autumn- On-spec commercial production expected by end 2024- Production targeted at Europe- Europe chemicals still suffering, improvement expected by 2025- MOL has 35-year contract to manage Hungary’s municipal waste - Waste provide feedstocks for recycling, energy recovery- New EU parliament must make industrial policy a top priority

The outlook for European PVC remains challenging, as construction activity is trending below normal seasonal levels.Analyst Valentina Cherubin and Senior Editor Chris Barker discuss expectations for the rest of 2024, including the impact of the Red Sea crisis and lower-than-expected interest rate cuts later in the year.

LONDON (ICIS)—Supply down the oxo-alcohols value chain has improved as OQ Chemicals has restarted production and some Asian imports are available. Across markets, demand continues to be subdued by economic pressures and there has been little seasonal improvement. Oxo-alcohols market editor Nicole Simpson speaks to butyl acetate (butac) editor Marion Boakye, acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin Beech, and propylene glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, about the current conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

SEOUL (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS markets editor Josh Quah shares an update on the ethylene (C2) market in Asia based on discussions during the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2024. S Korea Jun cracker run rates may see some downward adjustment, though unlikely to be significant Jul arrival demand uncertain amid turnarounds, some recovering margins C2 export allocations to hinge on polymer profitability APIC 2024 is being held in Seoul, South Korea, from 30-31 May.

The soda ash market narrative reminds one of Dickens' A tale of two cities: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times [...]we had everything before us, we had nothing before us."From the vertiginous highs of the post-pandemic boom to the slumbers brought in by high borrowing costs, soda ash players are navigating rougher seas with lows elongated compared to typical cyclical troughs and highs that had exhausted anyone involved in selling the molecule for over two years. Likewise, the promises of a boom in consumption via the lithium carbonate to support lithium ion battery-run electric vehicles is also tempered by the idea that global oversupply could through the molecule back into the depressed mode and low margin era it has known for decades.Demand from the from the all-important flat glass applications servicing the construction and auto industries have stabilised after a year-long slow decline and is likely to remain slower in H2.Regionalism is at all time highs. And Supply from China is once again in the line of mire.ICIS soda ash editors Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela from Europe, Helen Lee from Asia, and Bill Bowen from the US talk about the changing market conditions as China switches from net exporter to net importer in Q1-Q2.

Chemical distributors are seeing signs of a sequential improvement in demand, but increasing geopolitical volatility threatens any recovery, according to the head of trade group Fecc. - Sequential improvement in demand, destocking winds down- Red Sea disruption highlights continuing fragility of supply chains- Geopolitics creates growing instability and volatility - Europe chemicals need political support - Permitting needs to speed up to enable low carbon energy transfer- South Korea chemicals under intense pressure to consolidateClick here to download the 2024 ICIS Top 100 Chemical Distributors In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Dorothee Arns, Director General of Fecc (European Association of Chemical Distributors), ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- Recycled polymers markets in Asia faced different market dynamics, driven by various factors like additional capacities, inflationary pressures and support from downstream demand. Asia R-PET trade to gain support from new extrusion capacities within Asia and long-haul markets Asia R-PE to continue to perform poorly in H2 in line with cheaper virgin PE prices and inflationary pressure which impacts finished goods demand Uptake from the automotive sector lends support to Asia R-PP, with trade expected to be moderate until end of the year In this podcast, Asia recycling editor Arianne Perez discusses trends in the market as well as what lies ahead.

Chemical companies can gain recognition as leaders in innovation, and also evaluate their own new product pipeline by taking part in the ICIS Innovation Awards, according to last year's winner. ICIS Chemical Business deputy editor, Will Beacham, interviews David Dupont, Arkema’s vice president specialty polyamides. Click here to find out how to enter this year’s ICIS Innovation Awards. Entry deadline Friday 7 June.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- Northeast Asia continued to see an oversupply of ethylene, and downstream margins remained weak. The supply-demand balance is expected to improve with a slowdown in capacity growth in China. In southeast Asia, the market is likely to continue to be under pressure in H2 2024. NE Asia in oversupply as players begin looking to H2 2024 arrivals Standalone-based derivatives margins remain weak NE Asia and US arbitrage weighs on SE Asia market, downstream demand tepid In this podcast, Markets Editor Josh Quah and Analysts Amy Yu and Shariene Goh discuss trends in the Asian ethylene market and what we can expect in the near future.

In this podcast, ICIS editors Hwee Hwee Tan and Jady Ma discuss current trends in Asia's acetic acid market.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Earlier than usual re-stocking activities of gasoline blend stocks had curbed the price gains for paraxylene (PX) in Asia, while a lack of strong demand growth in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyester markets had kept market confidence low. Key PX bullish factor is the limited new capacity expansions Asia adds two new downstream PTA capacities in the first half of the year ICIS expects PX prices to be supported in Q3, but Q4 to face a downward pressure In this podcast, Senior Editor Samuel Wong and Senior Analyst Jimmy Zhang discuss trends in the Asian PX market and what we can expect in the near future.

The White House announced on 14 May that it would increase tariffs on $18 billion worth of imports from China to protect American workers and businesses. How will this latest development impact China’s LPG supplies from the US, which was the second largest LPG exporter to China in 2023, following the Mideast. In 2018, China raised the import tariff on US LPG from 1% to 25% in retaliation to tariffs hikes implemented by the former US president Donald Trump. In this podcast, ICIS Analyst Lillian Ren shares insights on the potential impact on Chinese imports of LPG, including propane and butane.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- The ample supply of propylene in Asia as well as some new polypropylene (PP) capacities in China is expected to weigh on discussions in SE Asia in the coming months. Asia C3 to see length from China PDH restarts, SE Asia volumes China PP exports to weigh on SE Asia discussions Asia PP prices to come under pressure in June-July In this podcast, ICIS editors Julia Tan, Jackie Wong and Lucy Shuai discuss some of the trends in the Asian propylene and PP markets and what we can expect going forward.