Episode 1411: Think Tank: Use scenario planning to estimate China's future impact on chemicals
China has a huge impact on the global chemical industry in terms of supply and demand so analysis...
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Show Notes
China has a huge impact on the global chemical industry in terms of supply and demand so analysis of future demographic and economic trends is important for business leaders.
- Huge variation in forecasts for changes in population
- Chemicals demand growth scenario planning is vital
- Must take into account China’s success in technology and exports
- Demand boost if export earnings are funnelled back into pension and healthcare reforms
- ICIS base case 2025-2050 sees 2% polyolefins demand growth per annum, down from 10% between 1992 and 2024
- More container traffic may return to the Suez Canal if ceasefire holds