HBS Managing the Future of Work

Return guest, Harvard Business School senior fellow Karen Mills, is uniquely qualified to assert that the Covid-19 pandemic poses a greater threat to US small businesses than the Great Recession of 2008-2009. She directed the Small Business Administration from 2009 to 2013 and has been advising Congress and fintech companies on how to help small businesses through the pandemic. She is the author of Fintech, Small Business & the American Dream.

The pandemic has increased demand for online, remote freelance and contract work. Digital labor platform Toptal provides a market for highly skilled freelancers and contractors working in such fields as software engineering, artificial intelligence, design, and project management. Not surprisingly, the downturn has sent more workers to the platform. In some cases, employers have turned to the platform to find temporary work for their idled employees. CEO, Taso Du Val, joins the podcast. (Toptal’s remote work playbook: https://www.toptal.com/playbook)

Contact tracing—mapping the spread of a virus by identifying individuals in the chain of transmission—is an essential tool in the fight to limit the damage of Covid-19. Early experience in South Korea, China, Singapore, Germany, and elsewhere has shown what works. Successful schemes save lives and mitigate economic losses. Smartphone apps have a role play, but as with e-commerce, security and privacy are concerns. Harvard’s Safra Center for Ethics recently published a paper outlining how contact tracing can be designed to protect users’ privacy. Coauthor Sham Kakade, a computer scientist at the University of Washington, explains.

Post-Covid recovery will hinge on how well countries leverage talent. This lends new relevance to international business school INSEAD’s 2020 global ranking of that capacity. Released in January, the school’s seventh annual Global Talent Competitiveness Index (GTCI) weighs countries’—and major cities’—ability to attract, foster, and maintain talent. The 2020 GTCI focus on AI is also apt, given predictions that the coronavirus will speed trends like automation. Co-author Felipe Monteiro interpreted.

Unilever was several years into a company-wide plan to revamp its workforce when the coronavirus flared into a pandemic. The multinational entered the crisis braced for change. Executive vice president Nick Dalton discusses how that flexibility has helped Unilever maintain business continuity, provide for worker safety, and coordinate remote work. With the disruption of global supply chains and ordinary life largely locked down, all eyes are on the consumer goods business.

Kent Thiry is a veteran healthcare executive with decades of experience observing public health policy and administration at both federal and state levels. He shares his assessment of why the US was slow out of the blocks in responding to Covid-19. Looking at the virus’ likely effects on the healthcare market, he anticipates that the crisis will accelerate adoption of tele-medicine. More broadly, he foresees a shift of more manufacturing to domestic locations, a speed-up of automation, and prospects for a greener, lower-carbon economy in the recovery from the current slowdown.

The Covid-19 pandemic appears to be accelerating the global workforce shift toward freelance and contract work, as it makes remote work a more attractive option. For many, the traditional employment model is being replaced by digital labor platforms like Freelancer.com, which touts skills outsourcing and innovation crowdsourcing. What’s in it for enterprises and freelance workers? Vice President Sarah Tang explains.

Harvard economist Edward Glaeser is an expert on how cities function as economic engines and centers of innovation. He notes that the advantages of density in spurring creativity and productivity are mirrored by the vulnerability it creates to threats like disease. Cities and their most vulnerable residents have borne the brunt of pandemics since antiquity. As Covid-19 tests the resources and resilience of urban centers and confronts leaders with difficult choices, Glaeser explains the policy options for protecting people and stabilizing the economy.

Canadian entrepreneur Irfhan Rawji has insight into the pandemic’s influence on a wide range of sectors, from US companies working with global tech specialists, to startups in a variety of markets, the organic food business, and healthcare. He shares his observations on the coronavirus’ impact on the nature of work; how it is shaking up the VC world; increasing demand for organic and locally produced food; and testing the Canadian and US healthcare systems.

In Episode 3 of the Covid-19 Dispatch series, we talk to The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson, who recently wrote about contact tracing. In the fight against Covid-19, this critical public health tool has been used unevenly. Thompson notes that South Korea and Singapore have had success with smartphone apps, but that South Korea’s reliance on GPS, along with surveillance video and credit card transactions, raised privacy concerns and may have discouraged participation. Singapore used Bluetooth proximity data, which doesn’t reveal geolocation information. The latter may provide the model for tracing efforts in the US and elsewhere.

The pandemic has magnified Amazon’s role as household supply line and pushed the company to quickly adjust how it does business. The retail giant has revised scores of operating processes in response to customer demand, workplace safety requirements, and public health directives. For an enterprise with half a million employees in the US, implementing these changes has been a mammoth management challenge. Ardine Williams, the company’s vice president of workforce development discusses how the coronavirus has changed business as usual.

The Covid-19 pandemic has thrown more people out of work than at any time since the Great Depression, and did so with unprecedented speed. In this debut episode of the Managing the Future of Work podcast’s Covid-19 Dispatches, economist and New York Times columnist Justin Wolfers discusses alternatives to the official unemployment figures; best and worst case scenarios; economic insecurity; and the need for federal aid to state and local governments.

Artificial intelligence seems to have repealed the laws of business physics, allowing “digital native” companies to grow at the stroke of a key and cross traditional market boundaries unimpeded. In their new book, Competing in the Age of AI: Strategy and Leadership When Algorithms and Networks Run the World, HBS professors Marco Iansiti and Karim Lakhani show the inner workings of the “AI factory.” Traditional businesses can’t bolt on AI and analytics and expect to compete. Marco explains how firms can adapt and discusses the implications for workers and public policy.

Fred Goff wants to tap the Web’s scale and connectivity to rebalance capitalism for the benefit of workers. The former hedge fund manager launched Jobcase, a workforce platform and online labor organization, in 2015. It’s a job search site, a clearinghouse for qualifications, and a support network for its 100 million members, most of whom lack a four-year degree. The AI-augmented community wields significant consumer- and investor influence. Fred shares his views on degree inflation, the skills gap, and the need for greater diversity in the workforce.

Nearly twenty years ago, Richard Florida famously identified the “creative class,” an amalgamation of knowledge workers and those in the arts, culture, and design fields. He established creativity as a basic economic force. Amid increasing inequality and unstable work arrangements, diminished techno-optimism, and the rise of global innovation hubs, he is still bullish on America’s capacity for invention. Florida argues for place-based economic development and skills-building up and down the socioeconomic ladder.

Workplace sexual harassment can derail careers, depress morale, and decrease productivity. The #MeToo movement focused attention on the issue, but left companies to figure out how to address this common and underreported problem. Harvard Law grad Ally Coll and tech entrepreneur Neta Meidav are working to change the culture around harassment. Coll is cofounder and President of the Purple Campaign, a nonprofit focused on business practice and public policy that is piloting a corporate certification program with the likes of Uber, Airbnb, Expedia, and Amazon. Meidav is cofounder of startup Vault Platform, whose application makes it easier to report and track harassment. They discuss the broader cultural and legal context and what leadership can do to promote safety and fairness in traditional and nontraditional workplaces.

HBS alum Stephen Moret led Virginia’s winning proposal for Amazon’s 2019 HQ2 expansion. A crucial factor in the Commonwealth’s success was its billion-dollar commitment to developing talent, particularly in computer science and engineering. In beating out states that pledged vastly greater subsidies to the retail giant, Virginia validated the view that targeted investments in workforce development can spur economic development. Moret draws on his experience in Virginia and Louisiana, and his doctoral research on higher education to explain how public and private sectors can boost growth and improve worker prospects. He also sheds light on the role post-secondary studies play in determining the arc of graduates’ career opportunities.

Dan O’Connor, retail expert and executive-in-residence with the HBS Managing the Future of Work project, traces the evolution of retail from the corner store through big-box, e-commerce, and the emergence of omni-faceted digital platforms. What are the implications for employers and employees throughout the sector? Retail accounts for more than 5 percent of US gross domestic product (GDP) and employs more than any other industry, roughly 16 million workers, or one in ten. Globally, the emergence of mega-platforms like Amazon and Alibaba, with their consolidated supply chains and mountains of customer data, is forcing the industry to adopt leaner and more responsive operating models while the workforce comes to terms with automation and other advances.

Amazon in the summer of 2019 announced a sweeping five-year plan to bolster the skills of a third of its US workforce—close to 100,000 worker-learners. The plan includes apprenticeships, partnerships with local community colleges, and internal programs. As Amazon’s Vice President of Workforce Development, Ardine Williams, notes, the initiative isn’t philanthropy. She argues that Amazon’s investment in training workers—even if some ultimately leave for higher-paying jobs—makes good business sense.

Art Bilger is sounding the alarm over systemic trends in the world of work—the mismatch of labor force skills and job requirements; automation; underemployment and structural unemployment. The Wall Street veteran, whose CV includes successes in media and high-tech, founded nonprofit media production company WorkingNation in 2016 to bring attention to these sweeping and rapid changes, which he warns could lead to economic and societal crises. Through news coverage, short documentaries, a podcast, and town hall-style events, WorkingNation focuses on individuals and groups whose stories underscore the difficulties and illustrate solutions.

For decades, enterprise systems vendors have promised legacy businesses virtual omniscience—decision-making informed by real-time, comprehensive views of their organizations’ activities and relevant external factors. This holy grail has eluded large established organizations, with their complex agglomerations of systems. Silicon Valley software developer Aera Technology touts an AI-assisted upgrade, tapping disparate systems and data flows to provide comprehensible and timely recommendations and automated decision-making. President and CEO, Fred Laluyaux, explains how advances in computing power coupled with vast stores of data are ushering in a new mode of operations, with computers handling more routine analysis and decision-making. This, in turn, is accelerating the automation of previously “safe” knowledge work. Laluyaux discusses the benefits and the organizational changes and challenges.

Financial Services giant Prudential is pursuing a hybrid workforce strategy. It’s all-in on automation for underwriting and other data-intensive, but routine, tasks. And it looks to the labor market for certain in-demand skills. But, according to vice chairman Robert Falzon, the New Jersey-based multinational is committed to cultivating the capabilities of its 50,000 employees. Many of its workers are also its financial services customers. This, along with low unemployment in the industry, helps explain why Prudential is working to develop its internal market for skills, identifying both supply (workers) and demand (jobs) in terms of competencies, expertise, and attributes, rather than experience and general categories. Falzon explains how this symbiotic approach leads the company to pursue efficiencies as it also looks to foster the careers of its home-grown talent.

The Washington Technology Industry Association’s Apprenti apprenticeship program is a creature of the Seattle tech industry. But since its 2015 founding, it has become a national player in the workforce development market. As a partner in the federal government’s push to extend apprenticeships beyond construction and the trades, Apprenti is addressing the skills gap while diversifying the tech workforce. Executive Director Jennifer Carlson discusses how Apprenti connects employers with promising candidates, many of whom lack 4-year degrees, and helps them navigate the complexities of federal and state systems.

Computer-aided design pioneer, Autodesk, is tightening the integration of design and production in everything from architecture to movies. This simple concept has far-reaching implications for the nature of work. Jobs, supply chains, and industries are set to become more transparent, automated, and interconnected. Construction is on the verge of becoming more like manufacturing, thanks to machine learning and cloud-based automation and control. Manufacturing is becoming more automated and customized. Training will become a continuous function of many jobs. CEO Andrew Anagnost is collaborating with Autodesk customers and workers to speed the process and seeking ways to mitigate the disruptive effects. He joins us to discuss these changes and how to address the skills gap in tech, construction and manufacturing.

Werk Enterprises uses surveys and data analytics to help organize work through a set of predefined, flexible arrangements, rather than the traditional 9-to-5 in the office. This HR version of mass customization can recalibrate the relationship between employers and employees to better match the needs of both. HBS alumna Anna Auerbach and her cofounder, Annie Dean, were initially motivated by the challenges facing professional women, whose careers have often suffered due to the conflicting demands of work and life. Werk touts hard numbers – in employee retention, net promoter scores, and productivity -- to make the business case for carefully tailored flexibility across the board, in contrast to the chaotic approach blamed for recent high profile pullbacks.

International trade expert and former presidential advisor, Richard Baldwin, discusses his latest book, The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work. He argues that the speed and sweep of economic and social changes resulting from global connectivity and AI could provoke widespread dissatisfaction. These factors are already influencing white-collar, middle-class employment. Work that can be automated or done remotely offers employers huge potential savings. Jobs that require onsite collaboration and interpersonal skills look less vulnerable.

The Aspen Institute has spent the past decade deconstructing how top US post-secondary schools bolster their diverse students’ work and life prospects. The nonprofit recently released its Workforce Playbook, which distills the best practices of leading community colleges and lays out the challenges they face. This work-based learning curriculum writ large informs college administrators, business leaders, and policy makers as they look for innovative ways to cultivate community talent pipelines.

Oisin Hanrahan, co-founder and CEO of home services gig platform Handy, has succeeded by finding order and opportunity in chaos. The former HBS student has navigated messy transitions, cutthroat competition, and a challenging venture funding environment. He is also on the front lines of the battle over worker classification. Now part of gig services conglomerate ANGI Homeservices, Handy has branched out from cleaning into skilled trades, contracting, and retail partnerships

What do sales clerks have in common with NFL quarterbacks? Apart from a competitive nature, both can benefit from VR training. Former Stanford football player Derek Belch drew on his athletic background and a Master’s in VR to deliver the virtual goods via STRIVR, the startup he co-founded with Stanford professor Jeremy Bailenson. STRIVR started out supplying VR to football teams and has since made a concerted push into the enterprise. The technology has the potential to improve hard and soft skills.

Life events, personal interests, and a host of other factors lead people to step away from work. The key is how to handle reentry. Carol Fishman Cohen, HBS ‘85, draws on her own experience to consult and write about what it means to come back from a career break in today’s economy. She sheds light on who the would-be returners are, what they bring to the workplace, the barriers they face, and how employers can include them in their talent pipelines.

Robots aren’t necessarily primed to take over, but advances in machine learning are readying the mechanical components of the workforce for more complex and autonomous tasks. Startup Osaro specializes in deep reinforcement learning systems, artificial intelligence for industrial robots. CEO Derik Pridmore talks about the adaptive decision-making capabilities working their way into warehouses and factories, and the prospect of machines with a wider, more human range of cognitive capabilities.

Technology is changing financial institutions’ relationships with local businesses and sole proprietors, which account for half of America’s workforce. HBS professor and former head of the Small Business Administration Karen Mills sheds light on the ongoing transformation. Will new technologies expand access to credit for sole proprietors and small businesses on Main Street? How will these new technologies affect community banks? And what are the key challenges to smart Fintech regulation?

The Center for Energy Workforce Development was created in 2006 to help the industry prepare for a generational wave of retirements and to diversify its workforce. Utilities are the proverbial canary in the coalmine, as U.S. organizations across the board struggle with skills gaps and demographic shifts. Southern Company Executive Vice President and CEWD Chair, Beth Reese, discusses the task of replenishing the talent pipeline from the dual perspective of utility exec and consortium head.

CareerWise Colorado is redefining job training and expanding the talent pipeline. The nonprofit apprenticeship program, patterned on the successful Swiss system, places college-track students in businesses from advanced manufacturing to finance. Founder Noel Ginsburg and COO Ashley Carter explain how Careerwise allows students to earn as they learn, become valued employees, and develop career networks and long-term prospects. It’s built to replicate, ramping up in Colorado and expanding nationally.

Western Governors University was founded in 1997 to expand access to affordable higher education and to offer instruction grounded in the requirements of the job market. WGU President and HBS alum Scott Pulsipher tells Bill about the school’s innovative online model, which delivers a proficiency-based curriculum to working adults and members of underserved groups. With over 115,000 full-time students, WGU plans to reach an even wider audience. Is this a model for the future?

More people in the US have criminal records than have graduated from college. Joe DeLoss, founder of restaurant chain Hot Chicken Takeover, argues that people with a range of life experiences that previously kept them out of the workforce, like the formerly incarcerated, homeless, and addicted, defy easy categorization. With appropriate management, including clear expectations, relevant benefits, and frequent feedback, he says they can help create productive, stable, and profitable businesses.

Can a Manhattan Project on steroids revitalize languishing US regions and drive balanced economic growth? In their book Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream MIT economists Jonathan Gruber and Simon Johnson hearken back to the scientific, technical, and economic juggernaut assembled during the Second World War to make the case that public investment in innovation is the key to stimulating growth and reversing rising inequality across the country.

The phrase “gig worker” often conjures an image of a driver providing a routine service for low pay. But freelancers provide services on a contracted, or “gig,” basis in a wide range of fields from cosmetology to carpentry. In this episode, Joe hosts Thumbtack CEO Marco Zappacosta, whose platform matches hundreds of thousands of professionals with contract jobs across the country. Marco provides a unique view into the shared challenges these varied “pros” face. Will platforms like his provide the solutions?

How should we think about improvements in artificial intelligence? Bill speaks with Joshua Gans, co-author of "Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence," which argues that AI advances can be boiled down to making better predictions. As a component of a vast array of activities, enhanced prediction will have ripple effects throughout the economy. What new functions and business models will it create? What difficult questions will it force society to answer?

In a world where jobs are constantly changing, the workforce must be able to continually add skills, and receive credit for them, to remain relevant. In this episode, Joe speaks with Anant Agarwal, MIT professor and CEO of education platform edX, who says “the future of work is the same as the future of learning.” Launched in 2012 as a joint venture of Harvard and MIT, edX has brought to market innovative solutions for today’s learners. But will their approach address the needs of tomorrow's workforce?

Improvements in machine learning and image recognition, and gradual acceptance by regulators, have brought innovative companies the threshold of the radiology lab. Bill sits down with HBS Professor Shane Greenstein to discuss one such company and the challenges of creating effective applications and bringing them to market. Greenstein also shares insights on how AI will impact radiologists, often labeled vulnerable to automation. Will they be freed from routine tasks? Or will they soon be a thing of the past?

Foreign talent is critical to the success of American companies. But the barriers to hiring skilled foreigners are rising: increased bureaucratic scrutiny and new regulations make it harder to bring workers into the country, and hostile anti-immigrant rhetoric pushes talented foreigners away. Bill speaks to Envoy Global CEO Dick Burke about the challenges companies across the country face and how Envoy helps them navigate the complex immigration environment to meet their talent needs.

Goldman Sachs, a bastion of Wall Street for over 150 years, has been remaking itself using new technology. Marty Chavez, co-head of securities and former CFO, has played a key role in this transition as workflows, position titles, and business models across the bank are reimagined. As he says, trading and coding are now “literally” one and the same. Hear him describe how technology is changing what it means to be a bank and give tips to executives working to navigate the transition to AI.

AI has been predicted to replace humans in professions ranging from customer service representatives to medical doctors. But many have pointed out elements of human work that would be difficult to imagine being performed by AI. HBS Professor Raj Choudhury discusses his investigations into uses of technologies based on machine learning. AI, he says, will be a valuable tool in the hands of experts. Listen to hear why.

The recent wave of geopolitical events, including Brexit and changes in U.S. policies, are creating uncertainties for firms that must manage global talent. Rina Montalvo, News Corporation’s Director of Global Mobility, has an inside look at the impacts. How are these events affecting deploying talent globally? How are large companies gearing up to handle them?

As jobs change faster and faster and companies work to prepare their employees for the future, it is more important than ever for firms to assess the talent they have and understand skills they need to compete. David Blake, founder and Executive Chairman of Degreed and author of the new book The Expertise Economy, talks to Joe about how companies can learn to speak the language of skills and empower employees working to gain them.

If you ask her about emerging technologies, Sophie Vandebroek – VP of Emerging Technology Partnerships at IBM – can tell you firsthand how the pace of change is moving faster and faster. From AI to blockchain, Bill talks with Sophie about how businesses are harnessing the cutting edge of advanced technologies and what one of the world’s largest enterprise technology companies has learned from putting them to use. Link to transcript.

Almost a third of workers—and more senior executives—say their careers have been adversely affected by caregiving obligations. As Joe explains to this episode’s guest host, HBS alum and Care.com CEO Sheila Marcelo, demographic trends and the changing role of women in the workforce mean that employers must make informed choices and “do the math.” By not accounting for costs like reduced productivity and increased turnover, employers leave money on the table when it comes to care. Link to our new report

The largest charter school network in the US, KIPP, is preparing young people, K–12, to lead what CEO Richard Barth calls “choice-filled lives.” This starts with teaching both academic skills and “soft skills” that are crucial for success at work and continues with proper guidance about the different paths towards a successful career. Hear why Barth is bullish on how the future of schools is gearing up to connect students to employers and a lifetime of employment. Link to transcript.

Examining the realities of rural America, Larry Summers concludes that the problem is not just one of providing people with incomes—it’s about the very basic human connection between work and satisfaction. Speaking with Bill, Summers advocates “employer subsidies” to encourage hiring in depressed regions, as opposed to measures like Universal Basic Income, which “send a message that it’s fine not to work.” Link to transcript.