Global Macro Update

Michael Howell of GL Indexes and Capital Wars joins Ed D'Agostino to explain how global liquidity is being drained by four converging forces—central bank tightening, surging oil, a rising dollar, and spiking bond volatility—just as a massive wall of COVID-era debt comes due for refinancing. He makes the case that the bull market is likely over, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is breaking down, and where investors should be looking.

Geopolitical strategist Jacob Shapiro breaks down the long-term implications of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Recorded in the middle of extraordinary oil price swings and a Strait of Hormuz disruption, the conversation moves beyond the daily headlines to explore what this conflict means for the Gulf states' ambitions as global financial hubs, the vulnerability of critical energy chokepoints, and the accelerating shift toward a multipolar world.

Eric Fine, an emerging markets bond portfolio manager at VanEck, discusses how EM bonds currently yield roughly double what you get in developed markets at lower volatility. And yet, almost nobody owns them. He also unpacks how Middle East tensions are creating winners among oil exporters, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and what 13 years of outperformance says about where fixed income is heading.

Yields have every reason to go up—and they're not. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins Global Macro Update to explain what that signal means and why he's more cautious on the economy than the current consensus. Neil was among the few against the 2022 recession narrative and was proven right. Now he's watching the same four indicators, and the conclusion has flipped. Plus: tariffs, AI and the labor market, and a candid take on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination.

Jan Stuart, one of the sharpest oil minds on Wall Street and global energy strategist at Piper Sandler, cuts through the headlines for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026. Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam? Jan answers all… and more.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave is here this week to discuss emerging markets, China's manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US. If you're discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), this conversation is for you.

Marko Papic discusses the evolving landscape of GeoMacro analysis, emphasizing the integration of political and geopolitical factors into investment strategies. He highlights the rapid changes in market dynamics, the implications of dollar debasement, and the shifting focus of investors toward global opportunities, particularly in Europe. Papic also explores the structural reforms and economic potential within Europe, as well as the importance of defense spending in the current geopolitical climate.

George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures discusses the shifting global order in this essential conversation. He explains why the world is "re-anchoring" away from the Cold War framework, how Russia's failure in Ukraine has ended its status as a global power, and why the US-China relationship is now the defining geopolitical dynamic of our era.

Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders joins us to discuss why geopolitical events rarely move markets long-term, how AI investment themes are evolving, and why 74 stocks outperformed Nvidia in 2025. Plus, Sonders shares her jigsaw puzzle philosophy on investing and more.

"Even before a single missile or shot at Taiwan, the market will already react." Ed sits down with Lyric Hughes Hale, editor-in-chief of EconVue, and Taiwan-based analyst Eric Huang to discuss a hidden vulnerability in global markets: Taiwanese insurance companies.

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Hear about his market cycle clock—and why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

Everyone worries AI will take their job. Steve Lord thinks we'll hit a bigger wall first: power. Lord is COO of Burkland Associates, which works with Andreessen Horowitz and dozens of other top VC firms. Hear about the infrastructure bottleneck facing AI, what went wrong with crypto's original promise, and Lord's advice for founders trying to raise capital in today's market.

CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell built his framework for tracking global liquidity while at Salomon Brothers. His central thesis: the ratio between debt and liquidity predicts financial crises and asset bubbles. Howell explains why the $350 trillion global debt pile requires $70 trillion in annual refinancing, how ZIRP created the "everything bubble," and what happens when the bill comes due.

While the Fear and Greed Index just hit "Extreme Fear" territory, Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly says we're in more of a rotation than a panic. Brent and I talk about the AI trade—why Meta's earnings marked a shift, whether OpenAI's $500 billion valuation is defensible, and why 65% of respondents would short it. Plus, why Buffett just bet on Google.

Bruce Mehlman unpacks the government shutdown, the recent Democratic sweep, and the AI bubble. Then he pulls out his crystal ball for the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential predictions.

Everyone is wondering if we're in another tech bubble. There's a mad rush to invest in AI, and tech companies are breaking valuation records, with Nvidia leading the charge. My friend Jared Dillian believes we're back in 1997/98. Hear why on today's episode.

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race, India's potential as a tech superpower, and how drug cartels impact Mexico's relationship with the US.

There's a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni's predictions: he's usually right. Today, Dr. Ed explains AI's impact on the labor market, how boomers are propping up consumer spending, and what the Fed should do next. You'll also hear his take on China, rising gold prices, and the Mag 7 by listening now.

MBS Highway founder Barry Habib says mortgage rates could drop below 6%, warns about supply-demand imbalances, and unpacks emerging threats from AI job displacement that could impact homeownership and wealth creation.

Large-cap growth has been on fire for 15 years, but that streak may finally be coming to a close. As Big Tech's summer rally fizzles out, small-cap value stocks are showing signs of life. In this interview, Jared Dillian breaks down the concept of a "style-box rotation," explaining why small-cap value may be poised for a powerful turnaround.