Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

Why has Russia been unable to suppress Ukrainian air defenses? What is the true state of its missile stockpiles and production rates? Is the F-16 the best aircraft to provide to Ukraine to replace its old Soviet fighter jets? How can the West disrupt the chips supplies for the Russian military? Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Justin Brock and Dr. Jack Watling from Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) about their findings from the recent trip to Ukraine

What lessons should Taiwan and its allies draw from the current conflict in Ukraine? Is the tank obsolete? Are commercial drones the future of warfare? Dmitri Alperovitch speaks to Franz-Stefan Gady, a research fellow at IISS and a deep thinker on the future of conflict and war, about his recent trip to Ukraine and the non-obvious lessons for Taiwan from this conflict

Military coup or orderly transition? Nothing lasts forever and in this edition of the podcast, Dmitri Alperovitch speaks to Daniel Treisman, professor of political science at University of California, who specializes on Russian politics and economics, about how Putin's multi-decade reign of Russia might end

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman, who is just back from a trip to Ukraine. They discuss: - The latest on the fight in Kherson and Luhansk - Impact of Russian terror strikes on civilian infrastructure - Ukrainian morale - How Putin's mobilization is progressing - What the Russians are trying to achieve with the dirty bomb scares, - Lkelihood of use of nuclear weapons and - How this war might end

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado's Executive Director Sarah Stewart talk to Kevin Wolf, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, about the latest export control measures announced by the Biden Administration that are now crippling the Chinese semiconductor companies and why this is one of the most important actions the US could have taken to deter an invasion of Taiwan

In the latest episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman about the Kerch bridge attack, as well as: - Prospect of nuclear weapons use by Putin - Analysis of how Russia's mobilization drive has gone thus far - Kherson and Donbas counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces - Why the Russians continue their pointless attacks in Donetsk oblasts - Ongoing game of musical chairs taking place at the highest levels of Russian military hierarchy - And the strange things happening with Starlink in Ukraine - Where the war is heading in 2023

Twitter Space recording from September 21, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch , Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the implications of Putin's partial mobilization order and the impact it may have on the outcome of the war, as well as Putin's own political futures

How did the Russian northern front collapse so rapidly and what can be expected now in the fight for Donbas and Kherson? Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the latest Ukraine counteroffensive developments with Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military.

Twitter Space recording from September 10, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman on the implications of the rapid collapse of the Russian forces pocket in northern Ukraine and what the future holds for Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south

Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports? Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets and the causes behind the recent increase in food prices and what can be done about it. Topics covered: How likely is the current grain crisis to lead to famine? What is the impact of resumption of Ukraine's grain exports after a deal brokered by Turkey? Why were wheat prices increasing even before the Russian invasion? Ukraine's wheat is a tiny fraction of global production. Why is it having such outsize effects on price? Can substitute crops make up for missing wheat? What will be the impact of fertilizer shortage on food markets? What can governments do to alleviate future food crises? Episode produced by Patrick Gray (risky.biz)

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant Topics covered: $10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months? Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure Russian artillery ammo stocks Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory

In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive. Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine. Topics covered: Ukraine's weapons needs for a successful counteroffensive and the challenges they will face Strategic objective of the counteroffensive and how can it help turn the tide of the war Why now is the window of opportunity for a counteroffensive and why it may be narrowing How Ukraine preserved their best troops despite high combat losses The strategic importance of partisan movement in the south and its command and control by Ukrainian special forces The story of how Russians captured Luhansk oblast by shelling their own forces How maneuver defense stopped the Russian offensive in the Donbas How the Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces and the importance of NATO training The lessons the Russians have learned since their earlier failures and their plan in the third phase of the war Why long range missiles are not currently a priority for Ukraine Morale impact of Russian apparent torture and execution of POWs

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world. Topics covered: When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe? What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected? What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1 flows? Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying? How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers? Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms? What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies? How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India? Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s. Topics covered: Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken What options exist for helicopter aid

July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered: HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects? Can ATACMS 300km range missiles break the Russian Black Sea Blockade? Why was Russia so obsessed with trying (unsuccessfully) to hold Snake Island? Is Russia executing a real operational pause before another assault on Donetsk oblast in Donbas? How long will it take for Russia to rebuild its combat losses? Are prisoners with military experience the future of the Russian military? What's happening with the Russian Kharkiv offensive? Has Ukraine launched the Kherson offensive or are we still seeing just preparations for one? How much is the war really costing Russia?

June 26, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Henry Schlottman (OSINT war analyst, US army veteran) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered: Is Belarus getting dragged into this war? Who is running Russia's war? Why are commanders being replaced? How best can Ukraine use the new HIMARS artillery systems that are now arriving? What difference are they likely to make on the battlefield? Is Russia in danger of running out of ammunition? Is Russian advance stalling in the Donbas? Can Ukraine target the Crimean Bridge bridge and what are the implications of their strikes on energy and rail infrastructure in Russia and Crimea? Is Russia still having logistics issues in the Donbas offensive? How is Wagner performing in the fight and why did Prigozhin get a Hero of Russia medal? Can Western defense industrial base keep up with Ukrainian ammo and weaponry needs and expenditures? Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael, @HN_Schlottman

June 19, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered: - Near-term prospects for Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south to take back Kherson - Will the new Western artillery systems arrive in time to make a difference for the current fight in Donbas - Why is maintenance the biggest issue for Ukrainian deliveries of new Western weapons - How fast can the Ukrainian ports be demined to allow for sea export of grain and oilseeds - Why haven't we heard more about the impact of Switchblade kamikaze drones that everyone was so excited about just weeks ago - What is the state of exhaustion/force rotations on Russian and Ukrainian sides - What's happening on Snake Island right now - Does Russia have the troops to make trouble for Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria - Is Russia running out of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and artillery shells - Is a ceasefire likely in the near future - What are the lessons learned from this war for the US military Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

June 5, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered: - Latest on the war in the Donbas, Russian progress and Ukrainian counteroffensives - Will the Western military aid (howitzers, MLRS/HIMARS, armor, UAVs...) be enough to help Ukraine in this stage of the fight? - Why is the rate of Russian casualties appearing to decrease from earlier in the war? - Can current high rate of Ukrainian casualties be sustained? - Are the Russians performing better at close-air support and electronic warfare than they had been earlier? - Putin's war on global food supplies - Can the Ukrainian ports be safely demined now? - How long can this phase of the war continue? - Russia: Bad military or bad plan? - Russian force design: why they weren't prepared for this fight - Shadow mobilization options for Russia Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85 Recent article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussed on the podcast: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

May 27, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Maria Shagina (Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies) about the economic war the West is waging against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. In-depth analysis of the state of current sanctions, their impact on Russia now and in the medium to long term, what more can be done to ratchet up the pressure, the role that China is playing in the current economic confrontation and whether sanctions will have the desired effect in the end. Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @Maria_Shagina

May 15, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation and formerly an analyst on Russian military capabilities at the US Department of Defense) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. In-depth analysis of why the Russian military has performed so poorly at each stage of the conflict, botched river crossings in Donbas, possibility of annexation of Kherson and other parts of occupied Ukrainian territories and implications of such action on the possible employment of nuclear weapons in this conflict. Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch , @KofmanMichael and @MassDara

May 8, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and US Navy Capt. Chris Carlson (Ret.) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Discussion of how the cruiser Moskva may have been sunk, the implications for Black Sea fleet, the importance of Snake Island, update on Donbas offensive and how a Russian mobilization may unfold. Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

May 1, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Nolan Peterson (Ukraine-based Senior Editor of Coffee or Die Magazine) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Discussion of the state of the Ukrainian military and whether the western weapons aid is getting to the front lines, economic conditions in Ukraine, fight for the Donbas, Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov's apparent visit to the front-lines in Izyum and how this has become a war of artillery. Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @nolanwpeterson

April 24, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Discussion of the fight for Donbas, how Russia is doing now on logistics and tactics, the sinking of Moskva, Russia's blockade in the Black Sea and the strangling of the Ukrainian economic and the outlook on the how the war might end ollow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) talks about nuclear nonproliferation with Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk), Director of East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies at Monterey. Topics discussed include: - What is the latest status of the Iran nuclear deal negotiations? - What are the key objections to JCPOA? - What does Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei truly want? - Why has Iran already beaten all world records at the longest time to acquiring a nuclear bomb? - How significant is the benefit of a nuclear weapons program to countries like Iran and North Korea? - Did we forever miss the opportunity to contain nuclear proliferation in the 70s-90s with a lax enforcement regime? - 16 years after North Korea first tested a nuclear device, is it time to acknowledge that North Korea is not going to give up its weapons and refocus our diplomatic strategy with them on more achievable objectives? - And much more... Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @ArmsControlWonk

April 3, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces and implications of the conflict for Taiwan and its defense with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Ivan Kanapathy (former Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia on the National Security Council and US military attache in Taiwan, now Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies). Topics: Russian withdrawal from the northwest, is threat to Kyiv/Odessa/Kharkiv over, what's next in the Donbas, what is the endgame in the south, how real is the threat to Finland and Sweden if they move forward with NATO accession, what lessons can Taiwan learn from Ukraine, how capable is China at amphibious landings and suppression of air defenses, and much more! Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

March 27, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Discussion of potential cyber attacks on US and allies with Chris Krebs (former director of CISA, co-founder of Krebs Stamos Group) and analysis of Russia's announced endgame for the war with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @C_C_Krebs

March 20, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Update on the campaign, challenges the Russians are facing, prospect for a coup in Russia and much more with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Andrew Monaghan (Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute) Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

March 13, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Update on the campaign, Russian training deficiencies, prospect of nuclear escalation and much more with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute) Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

March 6, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces: the state of the campaign, Russian plans and failures, Ukrainian defenses and much more with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute) Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85