Episode 1
Ajeya Cotra on Forecasting Transformative Artificial Intelligence
Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Ajeya's report on AI 01:16 What is transformative AI? 02
Future of Life Institute Podcast
October 27, 202247m 41s
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Show Notes
Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence.
Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:53 Ajeya's report on AI
01:16 What is transformative AI?
02:09 Forecasting transformative AI
02:53 Historical growth rates
05:10 Simpler forecasting methods
09:01 Biological anchors
16:31 Different paths to transformative AI
17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI?
25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI
30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough?
33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation?
38:15 Will AI be limited by training data?
41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn?
47:22 The next episode