Fault Lines

Today, Les, Morgan, Algene, and Marc examine China's accelerating base construction in the South China Sea, with new activity at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands drawing fresh scrutiny. Beijing has been building artificial islands since launching a major dredging campaign in 2013, insisting the infrastructure is civilian while expanding its military footprint across waterways that carry roughly 30% of global oil trade. International courts have ruled against China's claims, but Beijing has largely ignored those rulings — and few are pressing the point.Is China's construction at Antelope Reef part of a deliberate strategy to deny the U.S. the ability to come to Taiwan's aid? With the U.S. already depleting munitions and military assets at a significant rate, how dangerous is a moment of softening toward Beijing? What investments must the United States make now to restore deterrence before China's position becomes unassailable?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@morganlroach@algenesajery@washingtonflackLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/yuiNj-goMoY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Jamie, and Algene break down a dizzying week in U.S.-Iran policy — from the President threatening to "end Iranian civilization" to declaring a two-week ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has signaled new conditions for ships passing through the strait, as both sides trade proposals during the ceasefire. The White House is calling it a historic military operation but critics argue Iran may be gaining leverage over one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.What has the United States actually gained from the last six weeks of operations? Is this ceasefire just the start of negotiations — and where could those negotiations realistically lead? And if Iran’s military capability has been degraded, is there any opportunity for real change inside the country?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@algenesajery@msjamiejacksonLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/_hJjYyOXdw8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jess, Les, Jamil, and John discuss the dramatic recovery of an F-15 airman who was shot down over southwestern Iran, evaded enemy forces, and was ultimately rescued in a complex operation that included a last-minute aircraft failure and on-the-ground improvisation. While the mission marks a rare good news story in the ongoing conflict, it also raises serious questions about Iran’s ability to target advanced U.S. aircraft, with both an F-15 and an A-10 reportedly hit in the same day.What does this incident reveal about Iran’s air defense capabilities, and who or what might be supporting them? As the financial costs of the conflict mount and the Pentagon eyes a massive defense budget, how sustainable is this level of engagement? And with the possibility of escalation growing, are Americans prepared for the risks that come with a larger and longer war?@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjones@johnclipsey@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/24VXiSOaWyQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jess, Matthew, and Algene discuss Artemis 2's launch this week, sending four astronauts on a ten-day trip around the Moon for the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972 — built with allied partners in Canada and Europe, and costing a fraction of what the original moonshots ran.But while Americans are glued to the launch, China and Russia are quietly teaming up on their own lunar ambitions, with Beijing eyeing a base near the Moon's south pole. Can the U.S. and its allies out-innovate and out-invest a coordinated rival space program? As commercial launch costs plummet and private sector involvement grows, what does the future of allied cooperation in space actually look like? What does it take to inspire the next generation of explorers?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@nottvjessjones@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/qFl1UTQp3v4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Morgan unpack how the war with Iran is reshaping global energy markets and giving Russia an unexpected boost. As supplies tighten, the  demand for Russian oil has surged and the U.S. has temporarily eased restrictions on certain Russian shipments. At the same time, tensions with NATO and coordination with European partners remain uneven. Is this a temporary stabilization measure or a longer term policy? How does easing restrictions affect the war in Ukraine and Moscow’s broader leverage? What other options  did the administration have to address the energy crunch?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@lestermunson@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/URtPIjRWvo4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Andy examine Russia's deepening involvement with Iran as Moscow's list of reliable partners shrinks. With Assad ousted from Syria, Maduro sidelined, and Cuba caught in an American vice grip, Russia is losing friends fast. Russia and Iran have exchanged weapons, intelligence, and military technology — including Iranian drones now being built in Russia and provided back to Iran. Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly positioned itself for short-term economic gains in Iran's energy sector, even as the war with Ukraine grinds on.How sustainable is America's strategy of isolating Russia? Can Russia be trusted as an ally to anyone, given its pattern of abandoning partners when it becomes inconvenient? Is Russia's relationship with Iran a genuine strategic alignment or simply a marriage of convenience that will fracture under pressure?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/bLxROWvvkd4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jess, Amy, and Jamie unpack Pakistan’s reemergence on the global stage as a potential intermediary in the U.S.–Iran conflict. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has taken an active role in negotiations, with President Trump appearing open to Islamabad playing a larger diplomatic role. The outreach includes high-level engagement between U.S. officials and Pakistan’s military leadership, signaling a possible reset after years in which U.S. ties with India sidelined the relationship. Pakistan has also joined the Board of Peace initiative and is leaning into a dealmaking approach that aligns with the administration’s style, even as it maintains strong economic ties with China and a history of balancing between competing powers.Is Pakistan a credible broker in the Iran conflict, or simply playing both sides as it has in the past? What does this renewed engagement mean for U.S. relationships with traditional partners like India? Why is Washington turning to nontraditional partners at this stage of the conflict? And should Congress demand greater clarity on what, exactly, the administration is offering Islamabad in return for its role?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@amykmitchell@msjamiejacksonLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pcyV-osM-5o Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Matthew, and Matt unpack the growing uncertainty in Iran as the United States prepares to deploy up to 3,000 additional troops while President Trump advances a 15-point peace plan. At the center of this moment is a fragile leadership picture, with Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly in power but sidelined by injury and inexperience, and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emerging as potential intermediaries—or future power brokers.Who is actually speaking for the U.S. in these talks, and is there a credible counterpart on the Iranian side? As a coalition forms to secure global energy flows, does this mark a turning point in allied coordination? With rapid advances in defense technology underway, is this conflict reshaping not just the region, but the future of warfare?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/iZvcp5MHLq4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Jess, and Matt examine Iran's latest escalation after Tehran launched two intermediate-range missiles at Diego Garcia, a US-UK joint base on Friday. This morning, President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming weekend progress in talks with Iran. The announcement comes as Iran demonstrates it can now hold more than just the Middle East hostage, with its longer-range capabilities potentially dragging Europe directly into the conflict.                                           Is Trump's pause a genuine diplomatic opening or a negotiation tactic? With Iran's longer-range capabilities in play and the Strait of Hormuz increasingly unstable, will European capitals finally be compelled to act? What does this mean for U.S. marines deploying to the region?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/3I3w-gcbrlQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jess, and Amy examine the Trump administration's rumored $200 billion supplemental appropriations request for operations in Iran — a figure that would exceed every previous wartime funding request. The request comes alongside whispers of a $1.5 trillion defense budget, a staggering 50 percent increase over last year. Both the House and Senate declined to disapprove military action in Iran, even as questions mount about what the funds will actually cover and whether this signals a prolonged conflict ahead.Is this request a bridge to permanently higher defense spending, or a temporary surge tied to specific operational needs? How does a $200 billion ask square with the administration's repeated claims about military readiness and stockpile health? If Congress can't muster the votes for standalone authorization, could they push this through budget reconciliation instead? Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cRhG08wn9eQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Andy, and Algene unpack rising tensions between the Trump administration and NATO, as European allies show little appetite for joining a U.S.-led mission tied to Iran—even as they face rising economic stakes. President Trump’s frustration has been clear, underscoring a growing divide despite longstanding alliance ties.Are the U.S. and NATO still aligned, or drifting toward something closer to a “frenemy” relationship? Is Europe reverting to a more cautious posture toward Iran—or just being consistent? And with regional partners backing the U.S., can Washington move forward without NATO—or does sidelining it weaken the strategy?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajery@AndyKeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/mP-FW5XqIp0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess examine what the Trump administration’s next move on Cuba might look like. Reports suggest Raúl Castro’s grandson may be quietly engaging with U.S. officials, including Marco Rubio. Some proposals envision allowing Cuban-Americans to invest in the island, though questions remain about whether meaningful economic engagement is possible without major political change.What does the administration hope to achieve in Cuba, and would regime change bring lasting reform? Would Cuban-Americans be willing to invest in the island without clear property rights and the rule of law? Are the Cuban leadership’s reported outreach efforts genuine—or simply another stalling tactic? And as unrest grows inside the country, what might finally become the tipping point for real change on the island?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/qdXmBD6CKO0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Les break down a clash between the Pentagon and Anthropic, a leading AI company. The dispute arose after Anthropic said it does not want its technology used for mass surveillance of Americans or in fully autonomous weapons systems, while the Department of Defense insists its tools must remain available for any lawful purpose. When the two sides couldn’t agree, the Pentagon ordered Anthropic’s Claude AI removed from Defense Department networks and Anthropic sued.Who ultimately sets the terms when private technology meets national security? Could this sweeping ban disrupt defense contracts and supply chains that increasingly rely on AI? And at a time of escalation in the Middle East, does sidelining a major AI provider strengthen U.S. security — or risk slowing innovation when it matters most?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xMBSoKtRW1I Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, and Jess preview the upcoming Trump–Xi summit scheduled for March 31 in Beijing. Despite the significance of a meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest powers, preparations appear unusually thin. Major head-of-state visits typically involve months of diplomatic groundwork, detailed agendas, and large business delegations, but reports suggest that planning for this summit remains unclear, with few policy objectives publicly identified. What should the United States be aiming to achieve from this meeting? Is the administration missing an opportunity to shape the U.S.–China relationship at a critical moment, or is a quieter, less theatrical summit the strategy? And with China seeking stability and the U.S. balancing global crises from the Middle East to Europe, could this meeting quietly reset expectations between Washington and Beijing?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cVYcWn6nCoM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jamil, Les, and Andy take stock of the war with Iran as the conflict enters its second week. Tehran has continued missile and drone attacks across the region, including strikes toward Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, even as Iran’s president publicly apologized for some of the attacks. Meanwhile, Israel struck major fuel infrastructure inside Iran, and reports indicate the regime has selected Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah, as the country’s new Supreme Leader, raising questions about a potentially more hardline and hereditary turn in Iran’s leadership.What does the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei mean for the future of the Iranian regime and its relationship with the United States? Is this a moment Washington could use to pressure the regime as its command-and-control structure shows signs of strain? And with conflicting statements emerging from Iran’s political and military leadership, are we witnessing the fog of war or deeper fractures within the regime itself?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/irans-foreign-minister-rejects-calls-ceasefire-continue-fighting-rcna262291https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/07/offer-from-irans-president-to-not-attack-neighbours-provokes-internal-backlashhttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/world/middleeast/israel-iran-oil-strikes.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RlA.7y5K.rylKW2rO5YJs&smid=nytcore-ios-share @jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunson@andykeiser@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ZKEBLbNgWdg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Morgan, Joshua, and Algene revisit the war with Iran as the conflict enters its seventh day. Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles across the region, including strikes toward Azerbaijan, Turkey, Cyprus, and several Sunni Arab states, in what appears to be an effort to widen the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest Russia is providing targeting intelligence to Iran, while Ukraine has offered assistance to the U.S. and Israel based on its battlefield experience countering drones and missiles.Where does the conflict go from here? Will Iran’s efforts to broaden the war draw in new actors or continue to push regional states closer to Washington? What role might partners like Ukraine or private defense companies play as the demand for missile and drone defense grows? And as Congress narrowly votes down resolutions opposing the war under the War Powers Resolution, does that effectively amount to legislative approval of the President’s actions?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@morganlroach@joshuachuminski @AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-zyJzSLc78Q Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Andy, Jess, and Marc provide an update on the escalating conflict with Iran following the launch of Operation Epic Fury. The joint U.S.–Israeli campaign is still underway, with strikes targeting Iranian missile and naval capabilities while Tehran and its proxies retaliate against U.S. interests in the region. What began as a decapitation strike has quickly expanded into a broader military effort, raising questions about how far the United States intends to go.Is this still a limited operation, or the start of a longer regional conflict? How long can the United States realistically sustain a campaign of this scale? And as Congress debates war powers and funding while global shipping, energy markets, and U.S. force posture come under pressure, what are the wider consequences of this campaign?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@andykeiser@nottvjessjones@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/FZlIW8T9R6g Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Morgan discuss Operation Epic Fury and the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran. The operation marks a historic moment in a decades-long confrontation that has shaped every American presidency since 1979. The immediate questions now center on what comes next, for Iran, the region, and the broader international system.Will this decapitation strike trigger the collapse of the regime, or does Iran’s deeply entrenched security apparatus remain intact? Should the United States actively support fragmented opposition groups, and if so, how? And as Iran’s partners in Moscow and Beijing weigh their response, what are the risks of escalation, including potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and global energy markets?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/YOkOGb9ZPyk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Andy unpack a deadly and still-unfolding incident off the coast of Cuba, where Cuban authorities opened fire on a Florida-registered speedboat, killing one U.S. resident. Havana claims the vessel carried weapons and gear that could have been used for a terrorist attack and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the episode as an “unusual incident.” What exactly do we know about the incident? Is this an isolated maritime confrontation or the kind of flashpoint that could provoke a major U.S. response? How does the U.S. military's build up in the Middle East impact how Washington may respond to this episode?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/sr8CJ5O7adg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Matt, and Algene break down President Trump’s State of the Union address, the longest in history and filled with familiar themes, economic boasts, and political theater. The President claimed a historic economic turnaround and emphasized tariffs, national strength, and a tough posture against Iran. But while the speech delivered pomp and pageantry, it offered little in the way of a clear forward-looking strategy at a consequential political moment.How will allies and adversaries interpret the address, particularly amid ongoing tensions with Iran and economic friction with Europe? Did the emphasis on tariffs and economic nationalism reinforce stability or raise new questions about U.S. reliability? And in a year when voters consistently cite affordability as their top concern, did the President meaningfully address the challenges facing everyday Americans or miss an opportunity to shape the political landscape heading into November? Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@WMattHayden@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/GTW9ff7Jcec Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Jess, and Morgan unpack the geopolitical undercurrents of the Winter Olympics. The spotlight has fallen on athletes like Alysa Liu, competing for the United States, and Eileen Gu, who chose to represent China after reportedly receiving a lucrative offer from Beijing. Meanwhile, the U.S. men’s hockey team’s victory over favored Canada, America’s medal race with Norway, and even off-ice political theatrics have fueled debate about nationalism, identity, and how leaders frame athletic dominance.Do medal counts and hockey championships shape national narratives in ways that affect how countries see themselves and each other? Do the Winter Olympics play into Trump’s view of the world? In an era where global competition extends from military power to medal counts, how much geopolitical weight should we really assign to the Games?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Vp69UEMjtMk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, Matt, and Jamil examine the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, hosted in Washington yesterday. The Board was created to focus on the reconstruction of Gaza and the coordination of post-conflict stabilization efforts. The first meeting brought together officials from dozens of countries, alongside political and business leaders, and included a sweeping promise of $10 billion in U.S. funding.How does the Board of Peace impact regional stability and post-conflict governance in the Middle East? What does its existence signal for the future role of international organizations like the United Nations? What does the Board’s current membership say about the priorities and vision behind the initiative?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@NotTVJessJones@morganlroach@WMattHayden@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/aHxHGEmEdeA Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Andy, and Algene discuss the deployment of 100 U.S. troops to Nigeria, with another 100 on the way. The forces are tasked with training, intelligence sharing, and logistical support for Nigerian troops battling extremist violence in the north, but will not participate in combat operations. The move follows President Trump’s sharp criticism of the Nigerian government, including claims that it has failed to protect Christians from what he has called a “genocide.”What is really driving instability in Nigeria and is Washington framing the conflict correctly? Will a limited U.S. security presence help address the root causes of violence, or risk reinforcing a misleading narrative? And as reports surface of Nigerians being recruited under false pretenses and sent to fight in Ukraine, what does that tell us about the pressures facing Nigeria’s youth and the consequences of prolonged instability?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@andykeiser@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/VrjT2IM1Yts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break down Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he closed to a standing ovation. The remarks come at a delicate moment, with European leaders still unsettled by disputes over Greenland and tariffs. Rubio’s tone contrasted sharply with Vice President Vance’s harsher message at last year’s conference, suggesting a stylistic shift even if the administration’s broader approach remains the same. Was Rubio extending a true olive branch, or delivering the same message in a more diplomatic wrapper? As transatlantic ties evolve, how will Europe navigate expectations about responsibility and defense? If Washington and its partners fail to get back on the same page, can they hope to compete effectively with China?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/KuPBfpbKQaM?si=lp48EgPXzb0GoS_d Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, Les, and Matt examine whether real change could finally be coming to Cuba. The United States has declared a national emergency with respect to Cuba and threatened tariffs on countries supplying the island with oil. This follows Washington’s move to cut off Venezuelan oil, leaving the island increasingly isolated as its economy buckles under decades of mismanagement. At the same time, Russia and China continue to use Cuba as a platform for intelligence and influence just miles from American shores.Does this moment present a genuine strategic opportunity to reshape the balance of power in the Caribbean? What are national security risks posed by Russian and Chinese activity on and around the island? What would meaningful change in Cuba actually look like?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@morganlroach@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Andrew, and Amy unpack Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, where he is set to meet with President Trump to discuss the ongoing U.S. negotiations with Iran. Netanyahu intends to ensure Israeli security interests are addressed and to share intelligence as Washington continues talks with Tehran. While the Trump administration pursues diplomacy, it has also deployed U.S. carriers to the region, signaling that negotiations are backed by force. The administration has made clear its core demands are full denuclearization and an end to the regime’s violent repression of protesters. But with Iran weakened, boxed in, and facing deep internal unrest, would its regime rather endure U.S. pressure than accept terms that could threaten their grip on power? As both leaders weigh the risks of escalation today, can they shape an outcome that prevents a nuclear Iran without triggering a broader regional conflict?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@morganlroach@amykmitchell@AndrewBoreneLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-6IvHW_uTVY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Jess break down Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory in a snap election, a historic result that gives the Liberal Democratic Party a two-thirds majority in the lower house for the first time since World War II. The outcome dramatically strengthens Takaichi’s political mandate and opens the door to significant shifts in Japan’s national security policy. With a strong working relationship with Washington, the moment may be ripe for deeper U.S.–Japan coordination and a stronger coalition to counter China’s growing military power, including its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.While Takaichi now has the authority to act on national security issues, economic concerns are what drove voters to the polls. Can she deliver economic results while advancing a more assertive defense agenda? And as China pushes regional red lines, how will Japan balance domestic pressures with the strategic realities ahead?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/BAf34HsixlI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matt unpack the expiration of New START, the 2010 arms control treaty long described as the last remaining guardrail on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.  Washington and Moscow together hold roughly 85% of the world’s nuclear weapons but Russia has proven an inconsistent arms control partner, raising questions of what, if anything, comes next. Is negotiating a new agreement worthwhile if Russia and China show little interest in being constrained?  What would a credible next framework need to include? And absent a formal treaty, what informal mechanism can realistically prevent a new arms race?@morganlroach@lestermunson@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/SzqhtbLQ1EQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Andy survey a busy week in the Western Hemisphere, as the Trump administration sharpens its focus closer to home. President Gustavo Petro’s visit to the White House signaled a thaw in U.S.–Colombia relations, with renewed counternarcotics cooperation and discussions around exporting Venezuelan natural gas to Colombia. Meanwhile, Panama’s Supreme Court annulled a contract allowing a Hong Kong–based company to operate ports at the Panama Canal, prompting sharp warnings from Beijing and aligning closely with Washington’s push to limit China’s influence in the region.Are these signs that the U.S. is finally reasserting itself in the Western Hemisphere? Is the message landing with China and Russia as Washington draws firmer lines around the Panama Canal, Venezuela, and regional security? And after years of U.S. neglect that allowed Beijing to become a top trading partner for many Latin American countries, can renewed attention actually push adversaries out and deliver lasting influence?Check out these sources that shaped our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-calls-panama-court-ruling-ck-hutchison-port-contracts-shameful-pathetic-2026-02-03/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-meet-colombian-president-gustavo-petro-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-rcna257101 @morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunson@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/m8I6GmEM9pI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Matt turn to Sudan, where a brutal civil war has entered its third year and now stands as one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. As fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continues to displace millions and drive staggering civilian casualties, regional powers are deepening their involvement. With Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, and others backing opposing sides, the conflict is increasingly shaped by proxy warfare and emerging military technologies.What does this escalating proxy fight mean for U.S. interests? As Washington pulls back traditional aid tools and shifts its foreign policy posture toward trade and economic leverage, does the U.S. still have influence in a conflict this severe? How should policymakers think about Sudan’s strategic geography, especially as China and Russia look for openings to expand their footprint? And in a war where outside actors fuel the violence but Sudanese leaders bear responsibility, what role, if any, should the United States play?Check out these sources that shaped our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/general/sudan-humanitarian-situation-is-worst-crisis-of-2025/ar-AA1SIQ00?ocid=BingNewsVerphttps://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/sudans-war-torn-capital-sees-commercial-flight-land-129749973 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html @morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/V-2AvosoABM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fault Lines Episode 551: Between Rhetoric and Reality: What’s Going on in IranToday, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess take a closer look at Iran, where widespread unrest continues largely out of view. Reports suggest protests have erupted in hundreds of cities, with tens of thousands killed or detained as the regime has tightened control, shut down the internet, and doubled down on its support for the Ayatollah. As Europe moves to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and U.S. naval forces operate nearby, President Trump has issued stark warnings, calling on Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions and stop killing protesters, while hinting at behind-the-scenes contact with Iranian interlocutors.What happens now? Is this another wave of protests destined to be crushed without meaningful international support, or is there a real window for outside pressure to make a difference? What does Trump mean when he says “help is coming,” and does credibility suffer if that help never materializes? Is the United States prepared to act, or content to wait and see yet again?@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/YgxnXBFULCc Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, Andrew, and Amy break down the National Defense Strategy released last Friday, the Pentagon’s core blueprint for deterring adversaries and preventing conflict. Issued just weeks after the White House rolled out its National Security Strategy, the NDS reinforces familiar themes: deterring China through strength rather than conflict, pushing allies and partners to shoulder more regional security burdens, prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, and revitalizing the U.S. defense industrial base. Does the strategy signal a meaningful pivot toward de-escalation with China? Can U.S. allies and partners realistically fulfill the burden-sharing roles the strategy assigns them? And as sovereignty, trade, and security increasingly collide, does this strategy provide a clear framework for managing overlapping global threats—or allow for too much ambiguity at a critical moment?@NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@morganlroach@AndrewBorene@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Z1HdVjwfpvM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Matt discuss the removal of General Zhang Youxia, one of the most senior figures in China’s military. Zheng’s ouster, amid allegations of corruption and possible espionage, marks the latest in a sweeping series of purges that many say have hollowed out China’s top military leadership, leaving Xi and just one other general at the apex of the Central Military Commission. As Xi appears to position himself for an unprecedented fourth term in 2027, the shakeup raises new questions about stability inside the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.Is Xi consolidating power or has paranoia begun to consume his own system? Do these purges weaken China’s ability to act militarily, particularly toward Taiwan, or do they increase the risk of miscalculation? And as Beijing continues aggressive exercises, cyber operations, and coordination with Russia, how should the United States interpret this moment? @jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunson@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/k9_kzrJSN3s Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Matthew, and Jess discuss the latest diplomatic push around Ukraine, following a flurry of high-level meetings at Davos and beyond. President Trump and President Zelensky met for more than an hour as the World Economic Forum wrapped up, while Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. For the first time since the war began, American, Ukrainian, and Russian officials are now slated to meet face-to-face in Abu Dhabi to discuss military and security issues, raising questions about whether momentum toward a negotiated settlement is finally building.But are we actually any closer to peace? What would it take for Putin to seriously engage, given his repeated rejection of past proposals and the political risks he faces at home? Is Trump’s increasingly tough rhetoric a signal of leverage, hinting at greater military support for Ukraine if diplomacy fails, or a strategy to give Putin a face-saving off-ramp? @morganlroach@lestermunson@WMattHayden@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HA-taYy4ero Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss Greenland as President Trump arrives at the World Economic Forum in Davos and once again places the Arctic island at the center of global attention. While Trump’s rhetoric has sparked backlash across Europe, the debate raises serious strategic questions: Greenland’s growing importance to U.S. national security, its role in Arctic defense, and why Washington has sought greater influence over the territory for more than a century.Should we be wringing our hands or rending our garments over the Kerfuffle with Europe? Does the United States have a legitimate national security interest in Greenland, and if so, what’s the right way to pursue it without fracturing NATO unity? How should Washington balance pressure with reassurance to allies already rattled by the war in Ukraine? And as Trump enters his second year in office, what does the Greenland debate tell us about how this administration plans to wield power going forward?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RTw7qRU1Z6U Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Andrew, and Joshua take a step back from the headlines for a Fun Friday roundtable on the best and worst American foreign policy decisions, inspired by a recent Council on Foreign Relations article drawing on conversations with the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. From the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods to PEPFAR and the peaceful end of the Cold War in Europe, the team reflects on moments when U.S. leadership, economic power, and long-term thinking paid real dividends.What separates foreign policy successes from failures? Why do some hard-power decisions look effective at first but unravel over time? And as the U.S. looks ahead, what should decision-makers keep firmly in mind before reaching for any one instrument of power?Check out the article that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.cfr.org/ten-best-ten-worst-us-foreign-policy-decisions/?utm_source=newsrelease&utm_campaign=best-worst-2026&utm_medium=email&utm_term=PressCFR%20-%20Including%20Members%20and%20Staff @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@AndrewBorene@joshuachuminskiLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/FR_W1-fpr5o Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.