Eye On The Market

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.

Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.

Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.

An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.