Epsilon Theory Podcast

Three fund collapses in three months, even as markets hit new highs. What do the Archegos, Greensill, and Melvin Capital blow-ups have in common? Leverage.

Part 1 of a four-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire. Originally published August 8, 2018

We're going to Pack-source a slate of investment strategies for an inflationary world. Here are five tentpoles to organize and support that effort.

Very little of investing today is buying and selling shares of common stock in individual companies. Instead, we buy and sell what Wall Street calls "products". Mutual funds, ETFs, options, REITs, SPACs, etc. Dave Nadig, who literally wrote the book on ETFs, helps us understand the history and future of the business of Wall Street.

Every political movement has a political philosophy, and for Trumpism and MAGA it’s the Dominion theology of the charismatic/Pentecostal church. Neither the rise of Donald Trump nor the attack on our Capitol can be understood without an examination of this faith and its constructed political narratives. Believe it or not.

What's happening with Reddit and Gamestop and Robinhood is a revolution, but not the revolution you think. This isn't a "democratization" of Wall Street. You were played. Again. It's a revolution in Common Knowledge. And that changes everything. Again.

Rusty and I discuss the dramatic spike in Covid cases in Ireland over the last two weeks of December, and the risk of seeing a similar "Ireland Event" here in the US.

A conversation with Brian Portnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth, about the role of money in shaping a life of meaning. How do we give better advice about money to others ... and to ourselves?

Can Bitcoin preserve its revolutionary potential after a Wall Street bear hug?

On this special episode of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we share an excerpt from a conference call we recorded on February 13 discussing our thoughts on the market selloff earlier in the month. You’ll hear from Christopher Guptill, co-CEO and chief investment officer at Broadmark Asset Management and Dr. Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory.

On episode 26 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we welcome back Rusty Guinn, our executive vice president of asset management, to talk about political markets — a topic just as important to Ben as capital markets. Be sure to also check out the companion pieces to this podcast on the Epsilon Theory website: “Always Go To the Funeral,” “Sheep Logic,” and “Before and After the Storm.”

On episode 25 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’re joined by Peter Cecchini, Chief Market Strategist, Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross-Asset Strategy at Cantor Fitzgerald, to discuss one of his recent notes, “Failure to Inflate.” As Peter writes, “The theories that guide monetary policy fail to explain why growth and inflation remain so low in developed economies.” Tune in to hear why this is and what might bring about higher inflation.

We're back with episode 24 of the Epsilon Theory podcast! Ben shares his thoughts on the inflation narrative and a new idea reminiscent of C-SPAN to make politics at every level more transparent and engaging.

On episode 23 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’ve assembled the all-star team – Jeremy Radcliffe (Salient’s President), Rusty Guinn (Salient’s EVP of Asset Management), Neville Crawley (Founder & CEO of Engram Labs) and of course, Dr. Ben Hunt – to discuss whether we are at the inflection point when the proverbial punch bowl is taken away, and, as investors, what we do now.

On episode 22 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’re in Las Vegas at the 2017 EQDerivatives conference. Both Dr. Ben Hunt and our guest, Devin Anderson, managing director in equity derivative sales at Deutsche Bank, were speakers at the event this year. In a nod to David McCullough’s 2015 book, The Wright Brothers, this episode explores whether the ubiquitous ideas floating around finance today actually have wings and can fly.

On episode 21 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Brad McMillan, CFA, CAIA, the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network®. Brad graciously hosts us at Commonwealth’s headquarters in Waltham, Massachusetts. Ben and Brad talk about their mutual love for Terry Pratchett, narrative causality, the French elections, and how technology is changing the financial advisory business.

By the time we got to episode 20 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, change was bound to happen. Coming to you from our New York office, Dr. Ben Hunt and producer Michael talk about changes to the Epsilon Theory website, Ben’s role, and the entire political system.

On episode 19 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Rusty Guinn, Salient’s executive vice president of asset management. Picking up from their last conversation on fake news, Ben and Rusty consider the kinds of information that we have at our disposal and if we are asking the right questions in our analysis — or just searching for the answers we want.

On episode 18 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Neville Crawley, the former CEO of Quid, Inc., a data intelligence software company based in San Francisco. Dr. Hunt and Neville speak about advancements in big data and big compute, and the potential to further impact investing.

On episode 17, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined once again by Downtown Josh Brown. He’s an author, CNBC contributor, and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The last time Josh joined the podcast was right after the first presidential debate. With the election and inauguration behind us, now what? Ben and Josh take on the proposed 2017 Fed rate hikes, the potential impact of a higher dollar, and what matters most in investing.

A new year and a new president. On episode 16, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Rusty Guinn, executive vice president of asset management at Salient, to explore when the media morphed from agent to principal.

On episode 15 and the last of 2016, host Dr. Ben Hunt answers listeners’ questions about the Eurozone and what’s next in Italy, OPEC, and rates.

On episode 14 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient President and Chief Strategy Officer Jeremy Radcliffe and co-CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager from Broadmark Asset Management, Chris Guptill. As they explore how a Trump presidency might be similar to Reagan’s presidency and what a “no” vote in Italy could mean for markets, Ben and Jeremy are in awe of Chris’s encyclopedic knowledge of market history.

On episode 13 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined in San Antonio by Grant Williams, founder and publisher of Things That Make You Go Hmmm… and co-founder of Real Vision TV. It’s the day after the 2016 presidential election and time to explore how and why Trump won, what it might mean for markets, and where Dr. Hunt and Grant are turning their attention.

On episode 12 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt takes a trip down memory lane to look back on the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. He applies those lessons to today’s markets and upcoming election, and nostalgically shares what might boost his spirits.

On episode 11 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by two of his daughters, Hannah Hunt and Harper Hunt, to find out if they have an anthem this election season: a rousing cause or political movement about which they feel passionate. They also discuss the role of government and if their difference of opinion is a result of a generational gap.

On episode 10 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Joshua Brown, author, CNBC contributor, and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Ben and Josh discuss their reaction to the first presidential debate and what it would mean to have a President Clinton or a President Trump.

We’re back in Houston on Episode 9 of the Epsilon Theory podcast. Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient’s chief investment officer Lee Partridge and deputy CIO Rusty Guinn to discuss Ben’s latest note, fiscal reform, and what to do as investors in volatile markets.

Live from New York in episode 8 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt tackles LIBOR, the money market, and explores magical thinking and why the Fed and other central banks display symptoms of this activity.

On episode seven of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined in San Francisco by Salient's president Jeremy Radcliffe and deputy CIO Rusty Guinn to talk journalism, the coup in Turkey, and election politics. Producer Michael Corrao concludes with a surprise for Ben to celebrate the three year anniversary of Epsilon Theory.

On episode six of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined again by Salient deputy chief investment officer Rusty Guinn to talk about an observable shift among equity and fixed income investors, intellectual property, and Dungeons & Dragons.

On episode five of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt riffles through the mailbag to answer reader questions. Join the conversation and subscribe to Epsilon Theory newsletters or this podcast on iTunes.

On a special episode of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe discuss the economic and historical context of the Brexit vote. Dr. Hunt contends that “this is a Bear Stearns event and not a Lehman moment” and explains what he thinks could lead to a systemic shock to markets and the end of the Eurozone.

On episode three of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient’s chief risk officer Rusty Guinn. Through anecdotes about Donald Trump, Mikhail Baryshnikov and David Mamet, they search for the elusive “true authenticity” in people, politics and finance.

On episode two of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe examine why the once-trusted models in finance and politics are broken and what this means for central bank policy and the upcoming U.S. election.

In episode one of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe discuss the origins of Epsilon Theory, how Dr. Hunt came aboard Salient in 2013, and why game theory can be used to more skillfully understand markets and politics.