Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

The suspect in the latest mass shooting in the United States is still on the run. At least 18 people in the city of Lewiston in the state of Maine are dead, and a further 13 are injured. Police are hunting 40-year-old Robert Card, who is believed to be armed and dangerous. There's a "shelter in place" order for residents and two neighbouring towns. Portland Press Herald lead reporter Marla Hoffman told Hawkesby that these places are small town America, and it's unfathomable to think it's happening there. She says it's broad daylight now and people are very scared and in shock. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are hopes Christmas will bring businesses a cash bounce. The latest Retail NZ sales index —for the third quarter— shows many retailers sat in a holding pattern before the election. 59% reported increasing prices and just 57% felt confident their businesses would survive the next year. Business NZ CEO, Kirk Hope, told Kate Hawkesby that there’s a lot more certainty after the election. He said that there is a very clear pathway for businesses and a lot more clarity around what policy is going to be. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Further concern about the state of Wellington City Council's books as it agrees to a new budget for the Town Hall. The council agreed to approve up to $147-million towards the redevelopment, an expense which could bring the total up to $329-million. The heritage-listed building has been closed to the public for the past decade for quake-strengthening. Wellington Chamber of Commerce Chief Executive Simon Arcus worries this could impact rates or other projects. He says they've raised concerns about debt for a long time. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You’ve got to think there’s something very rotten in the state of the public service in this country that they’re carrying on —in some quarters where they know full well they’re getting cancelled— that they’re carrying on hiring people, working on projects, spending money, commissioning work. Why? They’re not going anywhere. Three Waters, light rail, Let’s get Wellington Moving... why are people on these projects persevering when they must know it’s over? They’re gone, surely the spending stops. It’s reckless and wasteful, and smacks of a deluded sense of entitlement that they can carry on in the false belief —or maybe just arrogance— that wasting taxpayers' money on contracts and outlay trumps the reality, which is they’re toast. Give it up. Stop already. Hundreds of thousands of dollars are being spent on things that will be completely irrelevant and non-existent. There is a guy, as we know from yesterday, at Three Waters hiring people. What a waste of time and money. This is another problem with delayed special vote counting and a delayed formation of a government of course. It all takes too long. I was heartened to hear even PM in waiting Chris Luxon saying the process needs to be sped up. The electoral commission —under the previous government— actually extended the special vote count period if you can believe it. To account for those enrolling on the day, they added another week. Madness. So now we wait this crazy three weeks whereby belligerent public service operators carry on with their head in the sand spending money on stuff going nowhere. If the new government had been able to get their feet under the desk sooner, all this would have been stopped by now and the country would not still be haemorrhaging cash on go nowhere projects. People like the Three Waters man would be stopped in their tracks. Luxon said people should have been able to read between the lines by now and those projects stopped. Full stop. Those resources and that money needs to go to other things, he said. He’s incredibly frustrated with the time delay and people like that guy abusing it by hiring and carrying on, wasting our money, says everything you need to know about how the previous government operated and why they lost our trust. Luxon said they can’t stop these projects themselves until they’re officially a government, but he did say he’d have hoped people would read the room and stop. Mark Mitchell said it’s a complete disrespect of taxpayers' money and I agree with that. So how much responsibility should the caretaker government have in all this? Should they be putting this stuff on ice? Why are they allowing a spend up free for all on stuff the incoming government will axe? Megan Woods agreed it seems wasteful but said they’re in caretaker mode. Is that a good enough excuse? She said it’s up to the incoming government to disestablish any programmes, she said it’s not a perfect world but it’s the way it is. It just feels to me that while all the excuses and hot air is getting bandied about, yet more money’s being spent, or should I say wasted. And I think we as taxpayers deserve better. Hopefully a change in direction and a shift in priorities with this new government will refresh outdated attitudes within the public service, and this nose-in-the-trough-to-the-bitter-end mentality, will stop. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's Government has made further public comment on the conflict in Israel and Gaza. Outgoing Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, in consultation with incoming Prime Minister Chris Luxon, has joined international calls for humanitarian corridors in Gaza and designated safe areas. Honorary Consul for Israel, Henri Eliot, told Kate Hawkesby that what's missing is the New Zealand government recognising Hamas as a terrorist organisation. He says the hostages still being held in Gaza aren't being talked about enough. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Dunne is someone I really respect because he’s emerged from a life inside politics to remain an engaged and informed observer on the outside. He makes a lot of sense, which is why I love having him on this show. He recently gave an interview where he talked about the fact we shouldn’t have to wait this long for election results. I agree. I’m sure most of us do. I mean we voted for a system like MMP which is not that clear cut so that parts on us, but surely the mechanism for counting special votes can be sped up. As it stands, special votes have to be sent back to their electorates. That’s your first hold up. Secondly they’re counted manually. They’re also taking all this time to scrutinize the roll, check for any duplication of votes, recount votes... and bear in mind there are around 567 thousand special votes apparently this year. But Peter Dunne says we need to speed it up. He said, “the votes need to be transmitted back to the electorates, they should be counted much more quickly and then those results declared within days.” So days, not weeks, and I agree. Could they do it? An overhaul of how the electoral commission operates would be needed, and I actually think that’s not a bad thing. I mean on the face of it, the electoral commission seems an antiquated cumbersome old system. Too much paperwork, easy vote cards and voting packs having to be sent out to every letterbox, which were in many cases too slow to get out anyway, and as it turns out you don’t even really need them. A wacky rule around when a candidate dies in terms of adding a seat to create a potential overhang and having to go through a costly by election. Crazy. But all of this dilly dallying and waiting three weeks means we wait almost a month after voting to get a government formed. All that time of limbo and nothing happening. All that time of a new government ready to get going and sink their teeth in and make some changes but can’t until it knows what shape it’s taking, and crucially, who’s in it. It actually puts us all back if you think about it. If you factor in that three quarters of the country wanted a change of direction, then that’s three quarters of us stuck going nowhere. Which means the country is going nowhere. I guess the alternatives would have to be soundly tested though – I mean automatic vote counting machines like in the US could be considered dodgy by some, so however the system changed it would have to get buy in. But surely not sending votes back to their electorates would be one easy fix to speed things up. That seems OTT. Because it’s not just getting on with it to appease our curiosity as to what formation the next government will take – ie, with or without Winston, but also what decisions need to be made, what changes are coming. Whether the new government has time to enact much before Christmas. Can they get a new mini budget up? Can they get going on their first 100 days list? Can they push through the reforms they want to push through? Starting a new government about 8 weeks out from Christmas doesn’t leave much time to kick into gear, and as far as I can gather, we’re all pretty keen for change to kick into gear, sooner rather than later. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Concerns that Wellington City Council's financial books aren't in a good state. Castalia was commissioned by a group of locals for an independent analysis of public records, which suggests a one-billion-dollar budget blowout. Group member and Wellington Lawyer, John Swan, told Kate Hawkesby that the council's 'reckless.' He says they've bitten off more than they can financially chew, but concedes that some of it is down to inflation. Council Chief Financial Officer Andrea Reeves says the analysis makes assumptions based on outdated information. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Rotorua Councillor says they'll be more transparent with the public, but some meetings need to be confidential. A Chief Ombudsman review of eight councils has found some have effectively closed workshops to the public for invalid reasons. It followed complaints they were undermining local democracy by making decisions away from the public eye. Rotorua Lakes Councillor Fisher Wang told Kate Hawkesby that the community should also expect the council to be fully informed. He says that means sometimes they have to meet and discuss things behind closed doors when the topic is of a confidential nature. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christopher Luxon's staying tight lipped about coalition discussions. Meanwhile, ACT's David Seymour says he's happy to make the coalition agreement public once it's been struck. Arrangements in 2017 weren't made public by Jacinda Ardern, with the Chief Ombudsman ruling details couldn't be requested under the Official Information Act as it came within her capacity as Labour leader. Former National Health Minister Jonathan Coleman told Kate Hawkesby that historically, it's always happened behind closed doors. He says negotiations are always kept private, and even in retrospect no one really knows what went on and why things were negotiated. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Emergency warnings have been issued for people in the way of fast-moving fires in southern Queensland. From today, residents in several towns about 250 kilometres from Brisbane have been urged to leave their homes immediately. Evacuation centres have been set up. Australia correspondent Donna Demaio says one of the fires, which has burned about 200 hectares of land already, is deemed suspicious. She says temperatures will also be hovering around the mid 30's which will make things extra tough. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How good is a long weekend? And is Labour weekend not one of the best? It’s the downhill slide to Christmas, which by the way is just nine Fridays away now. It’s heading into summer, it’s just a vibe. I notice people had an extra spring in their step – the sun was shining, the AB’s won a place in the final, we had two good games of rugby to watch in fact, there just seemed a real buzz over the weekend. I’m sure great weather helps, especially after the winter we’ve had. But I always think Labour weekend signals just how crazy busy the summer season may get if you live anywhere near a tourist hotspot. Where we live rurally is near a thriving wee summer hotspot which attracts huge crowds of people – particularly at weekends, but even more so at public holiday weekends. And it’s a catch 22 for locals. On the one hand you’re thrilled for your local pub and shops and village to get such great business, but on the other hand you can’t even get through the traffic to get a Pub lunch. So, happy for the Pub, sad for us. I bet locals in places like Waiheke, or the Wairarapa, or Raglan, or Kaikoura, or Northland, etc, feel the same way. But it does make me wonder how much small communities are prepared for the summer surges, how much infrastructure is in place to cope with the sudden influx? It would be nice to have some way of expanding facilities or road access at times like this, but the fact it’s so seasonal makes that a bit tricky, doesn’t it? You can’t build a bigger Four Square and have extra through roads, if in reality they’re going to sit empty for the rest of the year. But how good to see business back buzzing and tourists in town. Beaches filling up, surfboards on roofs, boats being towed, cafes overflowing. Even if it means you can’t get lunch at your local Pub because it’s so chocka. We are lucky to have such beautiful surrounds in this country – and especially at a time like this with so much volatility going on around the world, it makes you feel grateful to live in a haven like New Zealand. Yes, there’s a lot wrong in this country right now but we still have free access to beautiful beaches, parks, and hikes. We can get in a car and drive to spectacular scenic vistas that people from other countries would pay big bucks to be able to do. When the world feels tumultuous, somehow our distance from it all, makes us feel safer. Or at least lucky to be so far away. Doesn’t make chaos in other parts of the world any less hard to watch, but it does make us grateful for what we have I reckon. And in rural areas in particular it does feel a million miles away from chaos. But the gateway to the summer season always starts to unlock the crowds, which definitely happened this weekend. It’s not just rurally though, cities are about to be flooded with people too. The cruise ship business says it's preparing for a huge influx of cruisers arriving soon. Which makes you wonder how ready our CBDs are for that too actually. So this weekend was maybe the calm before the real surge starts to pump. How good though, especially if the sun was shining where you were. I reckon sun, an AB’s win, and a change of direction for the country, is a great combo that’s got us all on a bit of a buzz after a long wet tedious winter. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Four years on from the March 15th Christchurch terror attacks, the coronial inquest is beginning today. Coroner Brigette Windley will hear up to eight weeks of evidence. She will determine the cause and circumstances of the 51 deaths and make recommendations to prevent similar tragedies in the future. Herald reporter Anna Leask told Kate Hawkesby that the coroner will look at whether people could've lived if emergency services or hospital staff had done things differently. She says there are a few other questions the families don't feel have been answered, including whether the gunman had help. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The outgoing and incoming governments are blaming the caretaker convention for keeping tight-lipped about the situation in the Middle East. The convention applies when an outgoing administration is preparing to make way for an incoming one. International Geopolitical Analyst Geoffrey Miller told Kate Hawkesby that New Zealand's done the minimum: condemning the Hamas attack, calling for restraint from Israel's response, and funding humanitarian aid. He says beyond that, ministers have been reserved by design because of the caretaker convention. Miller says we're waiting for formation of a new government for a fuller response. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A macroeconomics professor is hitting back at a forecast our economy is on track for a soft-landing. Infometrics has revised its expectations for next year up to 0.9% growth, saying strong migration figures are having an effect. Auckland University Professor Robert MacCulloch told Tim Dower that the report is silly. He questions how they could come out with a line like that when next year the International Monetary Fund ranks our GDP growth at 180 out of 189 countries in the world. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are suggestions that we need to redefine what constitutes a one-in-75 years flood. A new housing development on land which flooded during Auckland's record-breaking January downpours is drawing criticism. AUT construction expert John Tookey told Tim Dower that there's legislative requirements that you have to be able to deal with degrees of flooding. He says if you're in a zone such as this, you need to have design features within the property which reduce the worst effects of a one-in-75 years flood. The site's developer declined to comment. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fresh concerns today about alcohol advertising near schools. Today's Medical Journal reports on a survey around more than 50 Auckland schools, which found each of them had at least one alcohol ad within 500 metres. And it's pointing out there was alcohol advertising close to 63% of low-decile schools. Instinctively, that doesn't sound so good but can we just back up the bus here for a second? One alcohol ad within 500 metres of a school... does that strike you as an end of the world is nigh situation? No, me neither. If it's the only ad for anything in that 500 metre radius and it's as big as a house, maybe that would register but would it send you steaming off to a bottle shop? Did advertising have anything to do with your early choices around drinking? No? Thought not. More likely the influences that steered you towards or even away from a particular product, or from alcohol altogether, were a lot closer to home. Wouldn't it have been your peers, your family, and the way they conducted themselves around alcohol? That's likely where most of us get our early impressions of the pros and cons of alcohol. Most likely where we saw it going a bit awry from time to time. Now obviously advertising works. We know it does. Radio advertising works particularly well, just quietly. And if advertising didn't work at all, businesses wouldn't do it. Advertising for tobacco is maybe a good example. Did you know it's been 60 years since we started banning ads for tobacco on radio and television? But did taking away the ads cause everyone to stop smoking overnight? No. It's taken a lot more work and a lot more regulation than that. I'm not saying advertising doesn't play a part in encouraging people to try different brands. But to jump from seeing a few ads to saying it causes young people to start drinking earlier and even binge drink, that's too much of a leap. And to be honest, when you make wild claims based on small amounts of data you probably do your cause more harm than good. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tomorrow morning brings with it what is set to be an intense match. The semifinals between the All Blacks and Argentina kicks off at 8am. Former All Black and Sky Sports Presenter, Jeff Wilson, told Tim Dower that this tournament was never going to be won in round one. He said once you get to this point of the tournament, the draw doesn’t matter as the teams have nothing to lose. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK Prime Minister has publicly pledged his support for Israel, in Israel. Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Rishi Sunak says he stands by Israel's right to defend itself in line with international law. He says he also welcomes Netanyahu's decision to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, and the UK will increase its aid to the region. UK Correspondent Vincent McAviney told Tim Dower that he was echoing the same sentiment of the US, warning them to be cautious about occupating Gaza. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dire scenes in the Middle East. At least 500 people have been killed in an airstrike of a Gaza Hospital. Hamas says it was caused by an Israeli strike, while Israel claims a rocket from a militant Palestinian group falling short is responsible. Jacqui Southey, Research Director at Save the Children, told Kate Hawkesby that the humanitarian situation is becoming dire. She said that food, water, and medical supplies are running out, but it’s impossible to get aid in without a ceasefire. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I want to thank Auckland airport shareholders for being vocal on the state of Auckland airport. They got grumpy and got into it with the airport at the annual meeting this week. And it's not before time. Issues with delays, queues, bags, lack of service, lack of staff, have been going on far too long and too many travellers have already suffered needlessly. The worst time I think was when the airport CEO came out and said 'it's complex'. Well, that's running an airport, isn't it? Of course it's complex, yet airports all over the world, in countries all over the world, way busier and bigger than us manage to do it every day. So why can't we? So frustrated shareholders apparently grilled the airport over all the problems, for which the airport and biosecurity officials apologised. But is an apology enough? I'd say no - what we need is action, we need it turned around, we need it fixed. It was reported that 'one shareholder hit out at the airport's inconsistency in service.' They'd called the airport 'an absolute zoo'. Another called it 'an absolute shambles,' and the lack of help, 'disgusting'. But in acknowledging the problems and saying they're unacceptable and apologising for them, the airport's still not actually fixing them, are they? I notice whenever we challenge the airport on all these issues and their lack of any decent service, they all run for the hills pointing the finger at each other. 'Oh it's not us it's them. It's not customs, it's bio security, it's not baggage, it's the bridge guys, it's not our fault it's the airlines fault.' And yes there are a lot of moving parts - airlines, ground handlers, customs, bio security, and so on... but why can't they cohesively all be overseen in a way that functions? It's not like we haven't had a functioning airport before, so why can't we have it again? What's wrong? What's changed? No one seems to want to be honest enough to say what it is - or bother pinpointing what the problem is. I'd hazard a guess it's lack of staff, lack of qualified or decent staff, lack of systems, lack of good management. All of those things can be fixed, but to do that you have to be honest about identifying the problems, and you have to want to fix them. Running around pointing fingers blaming different departments is not going to cut it. And as for the airport blaming flight delays, I mean that's just BS quite frankly. Flight delays are nothing new. Airports have dealt with flight delays for as long as planes have been flying. They say their rosters can't cope if the flight changes, then hire more people. Work the rosters in a less regimented fashion. Stop operating on some rigid intransigent unionised schedule. Be flexible - work with all the moving parts you've got. You can't argue it's a place of so many moving parts and then fix it with rigid rostering. So I'm not sure how this gets sorted if the powers that be won't actually work with what the problems really are, and try to address them honestly, and with real intent to actually make it better. And maybe that's the crux of it - are the 'powers that be' actually just the wrong people for the job? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hollywood actor Alec Baldwin may be re-charged over the shooting of his colleague on the movie set Rust. Cinematographer Halyna Hutchins was killed during rehearsal in 2021, after the gun Baldwin was handling went off. US correspondent Mitch McCann told Kate Hawkesby that special prosecutors dropped the involuntary manslaughter charges five months ago, because the gun might have been modified and malfunctioned. He says since then, they've reportedly received new analysis of the weapon, which could lead to new charges in the coming weeks. Baldwin's lawyers are calling this a misguided prosecution. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AA’s view is that the employment market has tipped back in favour of employers. Seek data shows the number of job ads fell 2% in September. Frog Recruitment Managing Director Shannon Barlow says workers are better off than pre-covid, with wage increases coming through and more flexible working conditions. She told Kate Hawkesby that now with fewer jobs around, employees may be less choosy. Barlow says they may not push as hard for more benefits. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A social media expert says imposing a fee on users to verify their accounts is a smart move. In a bid to combat bots and scammers, X —formally Twitter— is creating a $1 annual fee for new, unverified users, starting with New Zealand and the Philippines. Social media commentator Vaughn Davis told Kate Hawkesby that it means credit card companies will have to verify who's real and who's not. He says requiring someone to pay just one dollar, the burden will be on the bank to figure out who's real and the social media platform won't have to jump through those hoops. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two things that have come to light out of the weekend that I think shed a real insight into how shallow we are as a country. And don't worry I include myself in this, I’m as shallow as the best of them, and in fact I was front row for both of these sideshows. One, whose Toni? And two, Luxon’s wife’s arms. I mean when Chippy said he wanted to thank a new special person in his life and then went on to announce a new partner by the name of Toni, I almost fell off my chair. Mic drop moment. Was this the outgoing PM coming out? Would someone so intent on family privacy be doing this now? On election night? During his concession speech? Inviting the whole of NZ into his private life? I wondered if it was just me frantically googling Toni, but then I saw a story saying Google searches for Toni spiked Saturday night – so fess up, come on, we were all doing it. Not that there’s anything wrong with him having a new partner of course, just that it was odd he would announce a marriage break up a year ago and ask for us all to stay out of his private life, and then to an enormous audience invite us all back into his private life. And although I’m very happy for him to have a new love in his life, I also wonder how much of a distraction that was during the year given how often he turned up unprepared for interviews and hadn’t read or seen any media. So maybe that explains something. But all the best to him of course. Which brings me to shallow obsession of this country number 2: Amanda Luxon’s arms. Given the interest in her unbelievably toned and spectacular biceps, Luxon was asked to explain it. (Of course he was). To which he told media she’s always had biceps, just no one’s ever noticed them before. Imagine the day after you win an election, one of the things you have to explain is your wife’s biceps. But here we are. Maybe we’re all desperate for some light relief? Maybe we all just genuinely want the inside scoop on how to have arms like she does? He said she’s fit, runs every day, is a go getter. We also heard she’s a former ballet dancer, and the ballet dancers tell me once a ballet figure, always a ballet figure, so that’s a good advertisement for ballet. But Luxon said she helped him with his exercise and diet regime during the campaign, which was apparent actually, given he lost weight and seemed to gain energy throughout. You know what they say, behind every great man... I feel like we all need an Amanda Luxon at home telling us what to eat and how to exercise, and maybe she could share arm workout tips too? So aside from a new government, we got new goss didn’t we? Chippy’s new partner, and Luxon’s super fit one. Hopefully for both of them, that’s it and we’ve had our moment of fascination and they can go back to being behind the scenes which is obviously where they prefer to be. But we just needed some light relief, didn't we? The campaign was too long, the election night was long, and now coalition negotiations could be long too. Is it any wonder small distractions —albeit yes, shallow ones— are grabbing us right now? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Joe Biden will head to Israel tomorrow, hoping to prevent a regional war. Otago University international relations expert Robert Patman told Kate Hawkesby that Biden is taking a calculated risk should the conflict escalate. He says the purpose of Biden's visit is to express solidarity with Israel and open up a humanitarian corridor. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Security has been ramped up in parts of Europe after a suspected terror attack in Belgium. Two Swedish football fans were shot dead near the stadium hosting a Euro 2024 qualifying match. The Tunisian man who claimed responsibility has been killed by authorities in a Brussels Cafe. He'd identified himself as a member of the Islamic State. Europe correspondent Gavin Grey told Kate Hawkesby that those hosting games are staying on high alert. He says security has been tightened for the England-Italy game at London's Wembley Stadium, as well as the upcoming France and Scotland match in Lille. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A small business advocate says companies are still feeling the pinch despite lowering inflation. The inflation rate in the year to September was 5.6%, lower than the 6% in the year to June. Small Business Voice NZ Chief Executive Max Whitehead says while he's optimistic for the future, that lower rate isn't being reflected in many's experience. He told Kate Hawkesby that there isn't the confidence at the moment for businesses to reinvest in themselves. Whitehead says they're reluctant to put money into things like machines which can improve productivity. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are hopes that the new speed cameras being installed in Auckland will change driver behaviour. They measure the average speed a vehicle travels between two cameras and will only ticket drivers if the average speed between them is over the limit. Research shows they can reduce road injuries or fatalities by more than 50%. Driving safety instructor Tony Williams told Kate Hawkesby that the sophisticated cameras are likely to have an astronomical cost. The cameras are being installed at Matakana, Dairy Flat, Redvale, Whitford, Karaka, and Glenbrook, with testing starting in December. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

‘Jacinda was prepared to sell her grandmother”.. read the headline yesterday. A statement made by Ron Mark when interviewed about how coalition negotiations have gone in the past with NZ First. Unfortunately, he went on to say in the article that not only was she ready to sell her grandmother, but she did. Ouch. What an indictment on an already unpopular leader. But it should serve as a warning to Luxon and co as they head into the rocky, murky waters, that is the negotiation of coalition deals. Hopefully they don’t feel they need to sell the grandparents. Two other things to bear in mind: one, Winston’s’ a wily old dog, and two, Luxon is new to this politics game. I hope he’s flanked by enough political savvy to keep him from trying to flog the family jewels, but then again, he may not even need Winston. All the talk of the specials leaning left I don’t buy this time round. Remember, a lot of those specials are overseas voters – the very ones who got locked out, pinged in MIQ, missed funerals for loved ones, or scarpered overseas post the lockdowns, in disgust with where our country was going. The brain drainers... how do you reckon they’re voting? Yes, the specials tend to lean left – as they have in the past, but this time round is different. This time who's to say they won’t go the way the rest of the votes have gone, a punishment for Labour? The Greens of course always pick up all the student votes, and they may pick up those disgruntled Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for National – but we wait, we watch, we hope for the best. And when I say the best, I genuinely believe a two-party government beats a three-party one, purely because there are less moving parts. I said this before the election and I still believe it. And no, it’s not because I hate Winston, as some texters have accused me, I just don’t believe he adds value. He has pet projects he obsesses with: racing, provincial growth fund, superannuitants, but outside of that he seems to not really care. He's a lot of noise and grandstanding, not a lot of action. Although super gold card holders will disagree, they probably think he's the messiah. I’m just not sure NZ First voters this time will get what they wanted or hoped for, out of their vote for him – especially if he’s not even in government. So a tricky time of negotiations ahead and I’m not sure how over it we all are in terms of being happy not to hear about any politics for 3 weeks while they sort it out, or desperate to be across every aspect as they go. I mean when Luxon says we’re not negotiating it through the media, that’s fair enough and I believe that’s his wish. But what if ACT or NZ First – if they’re involved, think differently? You’d like to think that with so much rhetoric around the grownups being back in charge, that they would actually all act like grownups, but we’ll see. The temptation to use the media will loom large for anyone feeling disgruntled, but it will be a particular irony if that’s Winston given he’s so adept at shunning them and talking them down all the time. But you just know that if anyone's going to loop them in, leak, and play a negotiating game including them, it will be him. Oh the irony. So a long three weeks ahead? Or we just don’t care? Let me know what you think. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour MPs are set to realise the magnitude of their election loss today. The party is set to farewell a large number of outgoing MPs at their first caucus meeting this morning. Former Labour MP and Political Commentator, Peter Dunne, recalled what it was like in 1990 when the party had a big election loss. He says the big shock was when the new caucus met and they realised how few of them were left. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation is likely to be back on the rise as motorists continue to pay more at the pump. Stats NZ will release its latest inflation figures at 10.45am. Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan expects inflation in the year to September to reach 6.2%, up from 6% in the year to June. He told Kate Hawkesby that global events and the removal of the fuel subsidy are pushing up fuel prices, but National's plans to reduce government spending could reduce inflationary pressure. Kiernan says it will take time for any cuts of departmental spending to show up in our inflation figures. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A whirlwind trip to Israel could be on the cards for US President Joe Biden. The death toll in Israel has surpassed 1,400, while Gaza has reported more than 2,700 hundred casualties. The planned trip comes after Biden said in an interview that an Israeli occupation of Gaza would be a huge mistake. Washington Post reporter Yasmeen Abutaleb told Kate Hawkesby that it's the first time he's drawn a limit on what he'd endorse from Israel's response. She says Biden has said previously Israel has a duty to respond overwhelmingly to Hamas' attacks. Meanwhile, MFAT says around 50 New Zealanders are understood to still be in Israel, with 20 registered in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The number of people who expect house prices to continue to fall is dropping. The ASB Housing Confidence Survey shows 8% believe that, down from 34% last quarter. More people think now's a good time to buy but there's still a split. Aucklanders are the most confident house prices will increase. ASB economist Nathaniel Keall says it suggests the market's at a turning point. He says people still think prices will fall further and interest rates will rise, but the number is far less than even a few months ago. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gazans are being urged to evacuate south as Israel prepares for ground operations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to "demolish Hamas" after their deadly rampage through Israeli border towns. Israel has unleashed a ferocious bombing campaign on Gaza in retaliation for the attacks that killed some 1300 Israelis, mostly civilians. Gaza authorities say more than two thousand 200 people have been killed there, a quarter of them children. European Correspondent, Gavin Grey, told Kate Hawkesby that it's become increasingly difficult to get foreign nationals out of the country. He said that the UK’s foreign secretary is working to secure the opening of the Egyptian border for a short time in an effort to get British nationals out. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well what a weekend. From the nail biter of a fantastic AB’s game, which, for the record, I was never in any doubt of. For those of you who were still listening to our election night coverage at midnight Saturday night you would have heard me say I picked the AB’s to win – so you know, never in any doubt from me, just saying. Just so happy for Fozzie to be honest. I feel like he deserved that. Likewise I thought the Nats deserved to win Saturday night like they did. You can’t take away from Luxon what he was up against... from a shambolic leaking party at the start, to some in house scandals, to an unsympathetic media, to constant grilling about how unliked and unpopular he was, to a gruelling and nasty campaign against him from Labour and their Union mates at the CTU. He had it all thrown at him, and he just kept going. Slow and steady wins the race. On reflection, personally, if we made one mistake it was getting sucked in by the polls, we started to believe them. I did anyway. I think questions need to be asked now about how pollsters are conducting these in this post-landline age. They seemed ropey at the beginning, but then as they stacked up and up and up – and we sure weren’t short of polls— they seemed to all be telling a similar story. Turns out, they were wrong. Worst culprits were obviously Newshub, where an excited Jenna Lynch breathlessly announced just a couple of days out from election day that ‘the Nats had crashed’. It really got to the point of crazy at the end there. Maybe we all just went nuts because it was such a long campaign, we were all delirious by then. But I don’t think we as voters were well served by the so called non-biased press gallery reporting, and by sideshows like whether Chris Luxon believed in dinosaurs. I think what the wipe out for Labour very clearly points to is a rejection of Jacinda – particularly in Auckland where National did so well. I mean Chloe won the electorate seat of Auckland Central, but Auckland had a massive blue wave. And I actually put Chloe’s win down to name recognition and just being a face of Auckland for so long. Mahesh came dangerously close there and I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with next time – he just needs more time and more name recognition. But Hipkins got a hospital pass from Jacinda of the very worst kind, I felt bad for him in the end. Voters rejected lockdowns and her sneering treatment of them and the fact her very own Mt Albert electorate is so close to flipping blue for the first time in history, speaks volumes about how toxic the Jacinda brand had become. International coverage leapt on it, one headline calling it a ‘devastating verdict on Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand votes out Labour party in 'bloodbath'. CNN said: "New Zealand shifts right as voters punish ruling party". And I do think it was the party getting punished —and Jacinda— more so than Chris Hipkins himself. So look it’s all on for Luxon now. After an exhausting campaign it now seems the nitty gritty of the hard work really starts for him: how he cobbles together his government, who gets what, does he need Winston after specials are counted or not, and how the heck does he make it all work. All I can say at this point is thank god the All Blacks won, thank goodness the election campaign is over, now all we need is for the sun to keep shining. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The National Party says it's keeping the special votes in mind as it starts working out how it will form government. Deputy Leader Nicola Willis says they won't be doing any negotiating via the media because they want to respect the privacy of prospective coalition partners. She told Kate Hawkesby that work is going on. Willis says they're progressing relationships with parties they want arrangements with. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The All Blacks have made it to the quarter-finals, facing Ireland on Sunday morning. The team for the match has officially been named, and Mark Telea is out for disciplinary reasons. Irish Rugby Commentator, Michael Corcoran, told Kate Hawkesby that it’s finals footy from here on in. He feels that whoever wins this match will go all the way to the finals. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A number of airlines have suspended their services out of Israel, leaving hundreds of thousands of people stranded. As a result, the UK arranging special flights to get British nationals out of the country. Europe Correspondent, Vincent McAviney, told Kate Hawkesby that they are commercial flights, and as a result people will have to pay for them. But, he said, this will allow them to flee the conflict and get back to the UK. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A catch 22 for a West Coast town facing a daunting prospect of eventually being washed away. The Waiho River has been changing its course and rising due to sediment build up. If nothing's done, it's feared the township of Franz Josef could be gone in 20 years. The West Coast Regional Council put forward a 10-year plan to sacrifice the southern stopbanks protecting farmland and properties. Chairman Peter Haddock told Kate Hawkesby that the community has been aware of the build-up of the river for the last 20 years. He says the council has a responsibility to act now, because if it does nothing they'll end up like Hawke's Bay's Esk Valley, which has seen devastating flooding. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well this is the last time I talk to you before Saturday... although we’ll all be here Saturday night. Mike, me, Heather, and Barry, if you want to tune into ZB’s election coverage or watch it live streamed on the ZB or Herald websites, we’ll be here. Depending on how it goes if you look closely on the livestream you may see me tearing my hair out. Honestly, I’ll be glad to see the back of it. It’s been too long, too divisive, too feisty, too nasty. I think that’s all been a turn off for voters and it may go towards explaining the current apathy. If the polls don’t pick up Saturday, then I think that says something about how this whole campaign —from every side— has been run. The sniping, accusations and insults has been gross. The misinformation that’s been allowed to run unchecked, fuelled by media, has been a disappointment. Christopher Luxon said on this station yesterday when Kerre asked him what’s true and what isn’t given all these attack ads that he was grateful to be given the opportunity to clarify that, given no journalist had asked him that yet. Can you believe that? All the disinformation out there and not one journalist stopping to ask if it’s even true. Luxon says he’s confused as to why the media waste time asking random inane questions like, ’do you believe in dinosaurs?’ which then becomes a feature on the 6 o’clock news over and above policy that will impact the daily lives of New Zealanders. Labour has a high-powered machine of negative publicity blitzing National these last couple of days, making claims that simply are not true. Attacks is all they have, but the sad thing is how many people may fall for it without checking for themselves or reading the policy. How many believe the attacks and think National will cut their winter energy payments? (Not true) Or sack teachers (not true), add interest to student loans (not true), drop University fees free (not true), the list is endless. Luxon says they’ve tried to counter all this misinformation, but if the media won’t cover it, how do they get cut through? But the key thing we as voters need to start doing I think, alongside understanding MMP better, is think more big picture. We’re so in the weeds now and into the micro, that we’re not pulling back and looking at the bigger picture. A change of government is one thing, but it’s not enough – that government needs to be able to act decisively to elicit wholesale change to turn around the direction of this country. If it can’t do that, if it's encumbered by in fighting, hobbled by the handbrake that is Winston and his petty demands, or him siphoning off money for side shows like the provincial growth fund, then they achieve nothing. They’re ineffective, and we don’t get the change we need. And then come 2026, they’re potentially out. The country lurches left again – probably with a new iteration of a fresh version of a Jacinda, and with a greater push to move further left, back to all the things Hipkins shelved like a wealth tax and a capital gains tax. We don’t want to waste 3 years on a circus act. We need proper government that can be bold decisive and effective, and if there are too many pieces in that puzzle, then it won’t be real impactful change. Anyway we’ll know, hopefully tomorrow night just how messy or otherwise it’s looking. And if you haven't voted already just remember, your most important vote is your party vote. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Hipkins and Chris Luxon went head-to-head last night in their final debate before polling day tomorrow. Political Editor, Jason Walls, told Kate Hawkesby that he agrees with commentators who described the tone as 'cranky'. He says it was clear Hipkins' tactic was to try get under Luxon's skin which worked for the most part. Walls says he found Hipkins to be quite aggressive during the debate. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on his way to Israel. Once there, he'll meet with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz have formed an emergency government and war cabinet. US Correspondent Mitch McCann told Kate Hawkesby that they will only deal with bills and government decisions regarding the conflict. He said that it’s Israel’s latest step, and it’s predicted they’re preparing for a ground attack on Hamas. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A tale of two polls - but there's just one answer. Newshub-Reid Research and 1News-Verian have released their last opinion surveys before election night on Saturday. Both suggest the only viable coalition is National, paired with New Zealand First and ACT - but the margins are narrowing. Political Commentator Brigette Morton told Kate Hawkesby that the election is shaping up to be about getting the vote out. Advanced numbers are currently sitting behind what was predicted, and there’s been much discussion about the soft and undecided votes. The problem with the polls, Morton said, is that for them to actually matter the parties have to get out and get every single vote they can. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Incoming migrants are giving the New Zealand workforce a boost. Stats NZ has revealed the year to August saw record high net-migration, with 110,000 more people moving to New Zealand than leaving. Westpac Senior Economist, Satish Ranchhod, told Kate Hawkesby that part of the reason job ads have come down is because businesses are able to find staff more easily. He said that without migrants, they had to advertise much more widely and were still unable to find the workers they needed. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two Ws are potentially going to ruin our weekend: Winston and Wayne. Winston could kill all the fun Saturday night by holding the whole country to ransom and not forming a government. Wayne Barnes could ruin Sunday morning with his calls against the AB’s... we are potentially in for a rocky weekend of woe and misery leaving us all with a collective hangover Monday. The country could sink into a deep depression. More so than it already is. Yikes. I’m still aghast at how many people don’t understand MMP. I know someone who went to vote yesterday, the person next to them said to the volunteer at the polling station – ‘so wait a minute have we got two votes?’ The volunteer said, ‘yes one is party vote one is electorate vote.’ He replied, “what’s electorate vote?” I know of another person who wants to change the government, hates the way the country’s going, wants change, but in the booth decided they were fed up with all the politicians and so did a “protest vote” and voted Green. Now Green doesn’t change the government. Protest votes don’t work, there’s no such thing. It’s just a vote. Your party vote is the most important one. Where you put it matters. It changes the government or it doesn’t. We still as a country do not seem to understand this. After all these years of MMP, we still don’t know what we’re doing which worries me no end. I’m also worried about the polls, the lack of enthusiasm and engagement, and the difficulties I’m hearing about with overseas voting —links not working, papers not uploading or downloading— because when it’s too hard people give up. If I had a magic wand, I would change the voting system. MMP doesn’t work, I regret voting for it. In my defence, I had no idea what I was voting for. It seems now 25 years on, many of us still don’t get it. That’s a shame. Because if you think about it, why don’t we educate ourselves on this stuff? We can cite exactly the machinations of how the World Cup works, who's in what draw playing what side and where they’ll end up after pool games, who gets who in the quarters and what that means for the semis and whose refereeing, we can tell you everything about that and educate ourselves happily on that. But on one of the single most important things we will ever do, every 3 years, we can’t be bothered working out how it works. Is it that we don’t fully understand how important government is? Is it a slow boil lobster in a pot situation? We don’t wake up to how bad it is until it’s too late and then we get all mad and hate what’s happened but when we get our chance to have our say, we don’t understand it, so we just tick any box. Or worse, don’t vote at all. The people who don’t vote and see that as a protest, again, it’s not, it’s just a wasted vote and a missed opportunity to participate in democracy. If you don’t vote, you can’t complain about what New Zealand chooses for you. But is politics so boring that we just switch off, and then when it comes to voting we can’t really be bothered finding out how it works? So we just moan a lot but don’t make any effort to fix anything. I know well educated people who still don’t know how it works and haven’t bothered trying to find out. Last night’s polls —if we believe the polls— tells us Winston is likely kingmaker. And then if Wayne Barnes buggers it up for us at the quarter final, don’t be surprised if I sound depressed Monday. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New research shows rural kids are less likely to gain University Entrance than urban counterparts. An Auckland University study's found rural students had a 15% lower university entrance rate, creating barriers for them to get into courses like medicine. Area Schools Association President Louisa Barham told Kate Hawkesby that it doesn't surprise her or concern her. She said that there’s a difference in pathways and curriculum between urban and rural schools, as the environment influences what is focused on and what students are likely to do once completing their education. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I’m just not sure how —in this day and age— we’re still doing hazing rituals at Uni initiations. I know it’s huge in America, but like all the US’s bad habits, why’s it come here? It seems particularly prevalent in Otago. So far this week we’ve heard of horrific initiations, one involving biting the legs off a live duck, I mean I can’t even believe we’re saying that in a sentence it’s so barbaric. The other one being where two students allegedly got told to strip down to their underwear only to be called “piggies”. It was reported they were told “to strip to their underwear and stand in the centre of the room while 30 men and women watched on.” The second-year students who’d asked them to do this, then ‘used marker pens to circle parts of the young women’s bodies deemed to be “fat” and called them “the piggies” during the evening.’ I mean how is this happening in 2023? How is this possible that women could do this to other women? The idea was to humiliate them, which was very effective. It’s disgusting. Other initiation incidents apparently include ‘a group of women who were made to chain smoke inside wheelie bins, which then filled with carbon monoxide, causing one of them to pass out.’ I mean shame on the people demanding other students do this kind of thing, but also shame on the participants for doing it. How is this a thing? The duck leg thing was horrific enough, the students who allegedly ‘were forced to bite the legs off a live duck as part of a “sick and twisted” flat initiation, along with binge drinking games that involved eating their own vomit.’ I mean when it’s that sick and twisted, why are you participating? And whose overseeing all this? Who at the initiation end of the Otago Uni experience is not warning newcomers about these sick grotesque rituals and letting them know they don’t have to do it? Where’s the heads up? Where’s the duty of care to these students? Stuff like this could scar you for life. It’s an impressionable age, kids just want to fit it in, they obviously believe they’ve got to do it.. so why is the University not more on top of this stuff? Embarrassing people as a means to have them secure a place in a flat by making them do horrific things may seem outside of the University’s remit, but it’s not. This is their students, in their student town, being forced to indulge in dumb student rituals that can have dangerous and lasting consequences. The Otago Student’s Association claims these are ‘pretty isolated incidents’ and not part of the culture there. But the people who were humiliated of them claim it is part of the culture. So whose right? Otago Uni for its part had sent the proctor ‘to ‘flats identified as likely to host events and providing face-to-face information, followed by specific targeted email advice’ in a bid to crack down on initiations apparently, but that clearly didn’t work, the message did not get through. Their warnings were ignored. I just think emails and warnings and claiming its ‘pretty isolated’ actually has zero effect on the perpetrators. There needs to be a zero-tolerance approach to students who want to behave like barbarians. I’m not sure how Otago Uni gets that message through, but they need to work a bit harder at it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The death toll in the Middle East conflict continues to rise. A thousand Israeli people have died since Hamas' surprise attack, while retaliatory attacks in Gaza have killed more than 800. Up to 150 Israelis are believed to be held hostage currently, with Hamas saying it won't negotiate over them 'until the end of the battle'. US President Joe Biden will address the American people shortly about the conflict. Washington Post Foreign Affairs Columnist, Ishaan Tharoor, told Kate Hawkesby that there are questions of how Biden defuses a crisis like this — one which potentially may reach a scale never seen before. He says he'll have to articulate some form of vision beyond his already pledged 'unwavering support'. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas rages on. Israel's death toll has surpassed 1000 people since Hamas' attack, while more than 800 are dead in Gaza following retaliatory strikes. Up to 150 Israelis are being held hostage currently. Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni told Kate Hawkesby that they're waiting on the next steps and will provide humanitarian support when the opportunity arises. She says those kinds of measures take time, but New Zealand is always quick to provide support and will do so when possible. US President Joe Biden will address the American people about the conflict shortly. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I think what stood out for me yesterday when Chris Hipkins was in the studio with Mike for a couple of hours, was how relaxed Hipkins was. As the two hours slipped by, he seemed to get more relaxed, leaning back in his chair more and more, taking it easy. I wondered if the Coke Zero hadn’t kicked in, or maybe he was just tired, or maybe he’s just given up. I mean don’t get me wrong, I thought he came across well, I think relaxed is good. But I was interested to hear what he backs about his government, and what he was less proud of. MIQ, the debt still owed to them over that and their handling of how to manage that, he thinks they could’ve done that better or differently. As an Aucklander who felt like they got locked down for way too long I can tell you from where I sit, I’d have liked to think he would have felt they could have handled that better. He didn’t mention any regrets around slow procurement of PPE or RAT tests or locking Kiwis out of their own country for so long, or having the borders shut seemingly forever, but he did think they could've managed the costs owed for MIQ better. He still doesn’t know how much money is owed from that, interestingly. But he does back his government’s approach to crime, co-governance, and management of the economy. He puts a lot of the criticism of his government’s performance down to international headwinds or global pressures, doesn’t take much responsibility for what their part in it all has been. But when asked if he backed his Foreign Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, he said he did. Now her appointment was odd from the get-go. She was a Jacinda appointment that left people scratching their heads, she had no background in foreign affairs whatsoever, she didn’t like travel, she hadn’t held senior roles at cabinet level before... it didn’t make a lot of sense. She also yesterday put her foot in it when she didn’t condemn the attacks on Israel. While other international leaders condemned them, she described it as ‘an outbreak of violence between Israel and Gaza...’ and called for ‘an immediate end to all violence.’ Now alongside being so embarrassing that the PM and leader of the opposition had to jump in immediately and correct that statement, it also got picked up by overseas media. Sky News Australia reported that she failed to condemn the attack. Nicola Willis, who we had on the show yesterday, said Mahuta’s statement was so weak, that Christopher Luxon had to speak up and condemn the attacks on Israel, followed by the PM. So does the PM feel Mahuta is out of her depth as Foreign Minister or does he support her? Well he told Mike yesterday he supports her and thinks she’s doing a great job, although he said he thought her words ‘could have been stronger’. But here’s the weird thing, she didn’t even run that statement past him, they didn’t even talk before it went out. Hence he had to put out another one straight after it. But he backs her on the international stage, said he has absolute confidence in her. Which I think helps explain why his party is so often accused of not reading the room. If you think that’s an acceptable offering from your foreign minister, and you don't even want to pick up a phone to each other beforehand, then you’re probably not aware of how low the bar has sunk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.