“What I wish I had said about FTX” by AppliedDivinityStudies

<p><strong> The failure rate is not 0</strong></p><p> The base rate of failure for startups is not 0: Of the 6000 companies Y Combinator has funded, only ~16 are public. This is the wrong reference class for FTX at a $32b valuation, but even amongst extremely valuable companies, failures are not uncommon:</p><ul> <li> WeWork had a peak valuation of $47b</li><li> Theranos had a peak valuation of $10b</li><li> Lucid Motors had a peak valuation of $90b</li><li> Virgin Galactic had a peak valuation of $14b</li><li> Jull had a peak valuation of $38b</li><li> Bolt had a peak valuation of $11b</li><li> Magic Leap had a peak valuation of $13b</li></ul><p> That is only a handful of cases, but the reference class for startups worth over $10b is also pretty small. Maybe 45 private companies and another ~100 that have gone public. I'm playing pretty fast and loose here because the exact number isn't important, the odds [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:04) The failure rate is not 0</p><p>(03:54) Why does risk matter?</p><p>(06:45) Looking back from today</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> October 31st, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f5YfiCrunAHFeDpSQ/what-i-wish-i-had-said-about-ftx?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f5YfiCrunAHFeDpSQ/what-i-wish-i-had-said-about-ftx</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/f5YfiCrunAHFeDpSQ/ansxs6eqm9om1gxbthbc" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/f5YfiCrunAHFeDpSQ/ansxs6eqm9om1gxbthbc" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>