“New Cause Area: Low-Hanging Fruit” by Tandena Wagner, Jackson Wagner

<p> Hi, I’m Tandena Wagner. As part of my research for EcoResillience Initiative (an EA organization searching for the best ways to preserve biodiversity into the long-term future), I’ve investigated several common claims that various resource limitations could be disastrous for civilization – ie, that we’re approaching “peak oil”, or imminently running out of phosphorus, soil nitrogen, chromium, etc. For the most part, I’ve found these claims to be overblown, often thanks to systematic exaggeration caused by the poor epistemic environment of activist environmentalism. In general, Paul-Erlich-style resource limitations do not seem pressing compared to other risks to civilization.</p><p> However, there's one key resource that I’ve become increasingly concerned about: human civilization might be running out of low-hanging fruit.</p>This kid can’t reach the fruit because he's just a baby. &nbsp;But soon, this kid's problem could be the WHOLE WORLD's problem.<p><strong> Low-hanging fruit is essential for continued human thriving</strong></p><p> You might [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:13) Low-hanging fruit is essential for continued human thriving</p><p>(03:35) What would it mean if humanity exhausted the low-hanging fruit?</p><p>(04:32) New ways of making fruit hang lower are getting harder to find</p><p>(05:52) Shorter trees -- lower fruit</p><p>(08:50) Low-hanging fruit has broad benefits</p><p>(10:28) The Fruit is Too Damn High</p><p>(13:07) A fruitful direction for future research</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> April 1st, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/new-cause-area-low-hanging-fruit?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/new-cause-area-low-hanging-fruit</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/pjauvfvp2sgjfavktrkm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/pjauvfvp2sgjfavktrkm" alt="This kid can’t reach the fruit because he’s just a baby.  But soon, this kid’s problem could be the WHOLE WORLD’s problem." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/hl9lzikw5g0f8xcoy9ox" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/hl9lzikw5g0f8xcoy9ox" alt="Tantalus, a figure of Greek myth, infamously ran out of low hanging fruit.  Could this be humanity’s future?" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/jjmrcmyaegtvbt092uzg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/jjmrcmyaegtvbt092uzg" alt="Artist’s representation of how bad it feels when you run out of fruit." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/hretpmdhfqot4ec9jh1w" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/hretpmdhfqot4ec9jh1w" alt="Like this." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/l31bhoxufus9ji6xxfnz" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/l31bhoxufus9ji6xxfnz" alt="You might not like it, but this is what diminishing marginal returns looks like." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/zid0qp80ecwgl4n1gsz9" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/zid0qp80ecwgl4n1gsz9" alt="Pictured: not a viable long-term strategy for safely developing transformative AI, lifting africa out of poverty, or reversing Eroom’s law." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/hdtmg4zuwr3epyspyddl" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/hdtmg4zuwr3epyspyddl" alt="Fun fact: <span><u>wheat plants also used to be SUPER tall</u></span>, like literally 6 feet high, since it needed to outcompete weeds to get sunshine.  But once humans started growing fields of 100% wheat, all that extra stalk height was just wasted energy, so we bred it to be shorter." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/w2kpsaa2bw1cxhxlkor3" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/w2kpsaa2bw1cxhxlkor3" alt="The future of fruit?" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/xzfrzes3quw2wg1hrou9" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/xzfrzes3quw2wg1hrou9" alt="It has to live like this, because the fruit is too damn high." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/my0dacrg41wjlpyqhwte" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/my0dacrg41wjlpyqhwte" alt="You can’t, can you?  The situation is objectively out of control." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/jfvpfjpoodauvig6h4xg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/jfvpfjpoodauvig6h4xg" alt="Nobody in this photo is happy about what’s going on here." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/uob3acna22rfexjy2wsd" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/uob3acna22rfexjy2wsd" alt="This is your brain on fruit." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/qalpjyd4o1wmpdqrgsnx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/qalpjyd4o1wmpdqrgsnx" alt="According to all known laws of aviation…" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/on40lgc7kunx9xi0olqi" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5RNHhZ2KSesrGmSto/on40lgc7kunx9xi0olqi" alt="Pictured: me, doing cause prioritization research" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. 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