“Galactic x-risks: Obstacles to Accessing the Cosmic Endowment” by JordanStone

<p> Once we expand to other star systems, we may begin a self-propagating expansion of human civilisation throughout the galaxy. However, there are existential risks potentially capable of destroying a galactic civilisation, like self-replicating machines, strange matter, and vacuum decay. Without an extremely widespread and effective governance system, the eventual creation of a galaxy-ending x-risk seems almost inevitable due to cumulative chances of initiation over time and across multiple independent actors. So galactic x-risks may severely limit the total potential value that human civilisation can attain in the long-term future. The requirements for a governance system to prevent galactic x-risks are outlined, and updates for space governance and big picture cause prioritisation are discussed. </p><p><strong> Introduction</strong></p><p> I recently came across a series of posts from nearly a decade ago, starting with a post by George Dvorsky in io9 called “12 Ways Humanity Could Destroy the Entire Solar System”. It's a [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:00) Introduction</p><p>(03:07) Existential risks to a Galactic Civilisation</p><p>(03:58) Threats Limited to a One Planet Civilisation</p><p>(04:33) Threats to a small Spacefaring Civilisation</p><p>(07:02) Galactic Existential Risks</p><p>(07:22) Self-replicating machines</p><p>(09:27) Strange matter</p><p>(10:36) Vacuum decay</p><p>(11:42) Subatomic Particle Decay</p><p>(12:32) Time travel</p><p>(13:12) Fundamental Physics Alterations</p><p>(13:57) Interactions with Other Universes</p><p>(15:54) Societal Collapse or Loss of Value</p><p>(16:25) Artificial Superintelligence</p><p>(18:15) Conflict with alien intelligence</p><p>(19:06) Unknowns</p><p>(21:04) What is the probability that galactic x-risks I listed are actually possible?</p><p>(22:03) What is the probability that an x-risk will occur?</p><p>(22:07) What are the factors?</p><p>(23:06) Cumulative Chances</p><p>(24:49) If aliens exist, there is no long-term future</p><p>(26:13) The Way Forward</p><p>(31:34) Some key takeaways and hot takes to disagree with me on</p> <p><i>The original text contained 76 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> June 18th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/galactic-x-risks-obstacles-to-accessing-the-cosmic-endowment?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/galactic-x-risks-obstacles-to-accessing-the-cosmic-endowment</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/cfylxhnh7q6jmph4iqp4" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/cfylxhnh7q6jmph4iqp4" alt="Credit: calvin mccarter https://calvinmccarter.writeas.com/grabby-aliens-or-false-vacuum-decay-bubbles" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/ihsvslev9mg7cmuyqbfd" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/ihsvslev9mg7cmuyqbfd" alt="Bar graph showing cosmic threats discovered from 1640-2120, with peak around 1980-2000." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/jceejv0kornhabhzgvwn" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/x7YXxDAwqAQJckdkr/jceejv0kornhabhzgvwn" alt="Graph showing probability P(t) over time with three different curves marked x300,000,000, x2, and x1." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>