“Experts & markets think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possible” by LintzA

<p> The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now. </p><p> Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself:</p><ul> <li> What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and</li><li> At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted?&nbsp;</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong> Forecasts[1]</strong></p><ul> <li> The US won’t be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus</li><li> Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold</li><li> If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:45) Forecasts</p><p>(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators</p><p>(03:20) Some relevant research</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> October 8th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>