“An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely, potentially catastrophic, and we can help avoid it.” by JoelMcGuire

<h3 data-internal-id="h.nabinwqg6bs8">Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?</h3><p data-internal-id="h.v2pilpwnghb7">An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely and potentially catastrophic. We should research better ways to avoid it. </p><p> TLDR: I forecast that an invasion of Taiwan increases all the anthropogenic risks by ~1.5% (percentage points) of a catastrophe killing 10% or more of the population by 2100 (nuclear risk by 0.9%, AI + Biorisk by 0.6%). This would imply it constitutes a sizable share of the total catastrophic risk burden expected over the rest of this century by skilled and knowledgeable forecasters (8% of the total risk of 20% according to domain experts and 17% of the total risk of 9% according to superforecasters).</p><p> I think this means that we should research ways to cost-effectively decrease the likelihood that China invades Taiwan. This could mean exploring the prospect of advocating that Taiwan increase its deterrence by investing in cheap but lethal weapons platforms [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:13) Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?</p><p>(02:04) Part 0: Background</p><p>(03:44) Part 1: Invasion -- uncomfortably possible.</p><p>(08:33) Part 2: Why an invasion would be bad</p><p>(10:27) 2.1 War and nuclear war</p><p>(19:20) 2.2. The end of cooperation: AI and Bio-risk</p><p>(22:44) 2.3 Appeasement or capitulation and the end of the liberal-led order: Value risk</p><p>(26:04) Part 3: How to prevent a war</p><p>(29:39) 3.1. Diplomacy: speaking softly</p><p>(31:21) 3.2. Deterrence: carrying a big stick</p><p>(34:16) Toy model of deterrence</p><p>(37:58) Toy cost-effectiveness of deterrence</p><p>(41:13) How to cost-effectively increase deterrence</p><p>(43:30) Risks of a deterrence strategy</p><p>(44:12) 3.3. What can be done?</p><p>(44:42) How tractable is it to increase deterrence?</p><p>(45:43) A theory of change for philanthropy increasing Taiwan's military deterrence</p><p>(45:56) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Flow chart showing policy influence between think tanks and Taiwan security outcomes.</p><p>(48:55) 4. Conclusion and further work</p><p>(50:53) With more time</p><p>(52:00) Bonus thoughts</p><p>(52:09) 1. Reminder: a catastrophe killing 10% or more of humanity is pretty unprecedented</p><p>(53:06) 2. Where's the Effective Altruist think tank for preventing global conflict?</p><p>(54:11) 3. Does forecasting risks based on scenarios change our view on the likelihood of catastrophe?</p> <p><i>The original text contained 16 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> June 15th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/an-invasion-of-taiwan-is-uncomfortably-likely-potentially?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/an-invasion-of-taiwan-is-uncomfortably-likely-potentially</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5b4d8ecb1a0b219ccac5a3c0089925ca364b720ba0473804de4dd071f13a4298/xp93vxnlcrylgrfiwaac" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/5b4d8ecb1a0b219ccac5a3c0089925ca364b720ba0473804de4dd071f13a4298/xp93vxnlcrylgrfiwaac" alt="Military map showing missile ranges and naval ports around Taiwan Strait." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/d5306db97271780ba8bfbc7e2d1f98414bd8e0d3f33462758302f344f3104162/rr38mj2upyferq4wxnkl" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/d5306db97271780ba8bfbc7e2d1f98414bd8e0d3f33462758302f344f3104162/rr38mj2upyferq4wxnkl" alt="Large cargo ship stranded on beach with massive crane apparatus" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/annjlghs2kpwiu0hpyel" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/annjlghs2kpwiu0hpyel" alt="Flow chart showing policy influence between think tanks and Taiwan security outcomes." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/f6b1a74d7d326033bbb3f36dfe4f8e737606e15b287ba1558e2698e435e1e8d0/ppu6fh67e5cc0udfdvar" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/f6b1a74d7d326033bbb3f36dfe4f8e737606e15b287ba1558e2698e435e1e8d0/ppu6fh67e5cc0udfdvar" alt="Line graph showing Taiwan's military spending from 1976 to 2023." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/a9be36e26e785da51e6ea7be3a58d170cf6993f3f89c223d330dd86bfb81e102/hgf9wgdiiazvcwjnbpbv" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/a9be36e26e785da51e6ea7be3a58d170cf6993f3f89c223d330dd86bfb81e102/hgf9wgdiiazvcwjnbpbv" alt="Black and white close-up of intense eyes beneath dark cap." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/f1lldxgbibrhzhif5qgm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/f1lldxgbibrhzhif5qgm" alt="Timeline showing Xi's terms, National Congresses, and China's modernization goals through 2049." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/872738dc03211907a2ad8b3fac9a08615b81f4f9b8691681aa106398f2cf010b/lejgfxrxmldknscjznd6" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/872738dc03211907a2ad8b3fac9a08615b81f4f9b8691681aa106398f2cf010b/lejgfxrxmldknscjznd6" alt="Graph titled "Against the grain" showing China's commodity imports and manufacturing index (2011-2024)." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/9dd298573a31efcf7fdb703a9879e3e898593eee488db73def18cf4057871f82/kmeke02phdekqvtkxfsu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/9dd298573a31efcf7fdb703a9879e3e898593eee488db73def18cf4057871f82/kmeke02phdekqvtkxfsu" alt="A world map visualization showing missile trajectories and nuclear detonations." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/dtsfyzqmhv5rfssrtrhq" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/dtsfyzqmhv5rfssrtrhq" alt="Graph showing relationship between Taiwan defense investment and invasion probability reduction" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/39d6cadf16245b24bcc0bd1ebac92763b547439c285ab6878fb058b372cdf96d/c30jazlsvzh4bwnzoxsr" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/39d6cadf16245b24bcc0bd1ebac92763b547439c285ab6878fb058b372cdf96d/c30jazlsvzh4bwnzoxsr" alt="Military comparison table showing ground forces between PRC and Taiwan Strait region." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/345c2b84a0b0eddbcf7db7c66d1a2038e18fc9b23d2161278b1356682d0e5359/tnlvxznvpxbthvyd6z3a" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/345c2b84a0b0eddbcf7db7c66d1a2038e18fc9b23d2161278b1356682d0e5359/tnlvxznvpxbthvyd6z3a" alt="Graph showing predicted probability of China invading Taiwan through 2035, reaching 25-50%." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/1f48a2700bace53433ef6de7b144c4357d0a9be2d5a0af72171acdf289d40809/ifglrnszrcdatjzw8wgv" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/1f48a2700bace53433ef6de7b144c4357d0a9be2d5a0af72171acdf289d40809/ifglrnszrcdatjzw8wgv" alt="Bar graph showing ADZ violations increasing from 2020 to 2024." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/otatfwllqli2o8w9cw6o" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/otatfwllqli2o8w9cw6o" alt="Line graph showing Taiwan's military spending as GDP percentage, 1976-2023." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/j08qjdcjqw5izkkarhci" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/j08qjdcjqw5izkkarhci" alt="A bubble chart titled "Combatant deaths in conventional wars, 1800-2011," showing interstate and civil wars across multiple regions." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/ixrouxb86hztw0jgrerr" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/ixrouxb86hztw0jgrerr" alt="Flow diagram showing risk reduction stages between USA-China international cooperation." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/9866132ac4a78c89e023bf66b33f45ac2b40bd8a79252b18f8d567af76d03b54/mc6layi3vhmk8qyau9dx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/9866132ac4a78c89e023bf66b33f45ac2b40bd8a79252b18f8d567af76d03b54/mc6layi3vhmk8qyau9dx" alt="Graph showing "Active Chinese Warships by Type" compared to U.S. warships, 2002-2023." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/xm2lrkxqzs70kzsut4mw" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/xm2lrkxqzs70kzsut4mw" alt="Graph showing Taiwanese attitudes towards political integration with PRC from 1995-2020. The chart tracks three positions: independence, status quo, and unification, with status quo maintaining the highest support throughout the period." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/s9tkfna3o7ezyi4uj0gj" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/s9tkfna3o7ezyi4uj0gj" alt="Bar graph showing "Catastrophic Risk Estimates" comparing Domain Experts versus Superforecasters. This graph displays risk percentages for various catastrophic events, divided into anthropogenic (blue) and non-anthropogenic (orange) categories. The highest risk estimates appear to be for AI and nuclear catastrophes, particularly among Domain Experts." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/23c12540c441a77754191b427ac0fc5c0de02103b8cb715fbaa3b2db67cb9c19/zrbmnyiyvtzh9dudhqxy" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/23c12540c441a77754191b427ac0fc5c0de02103b8cb715fbaa3b2db67cb9c19/zrbmnyiyvtzh9dudhqxy" alt="Map showing suitable beach landing locations along Taiwan's coast from The Economist The map highlights potential landing spots marked in red (most suitable) and pink (medium suitable) around Taiwan's coastline, with two key locations labeled as Jinshan South and Jialutang. It shows the Taiwan Strait separating mainland China and Taiwan, with surrounding waters including the East China Sea and Philippine Sea." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/513c08f5b192c461bf706d15661d91a8539e41844f943aaf072dce7d43c21e9c/d4iivdx6gfnvrwarw8ch" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/513c08f5b192c461bf706d15661d91a8539e41844f943aaf072dce7d43c21e9c/d4iivdx6gfnvrwarw8ch" alt="sfx_ewss tweets: "Another #PLA mock target of #Taiwan presidential office in Alxa League, Inner Mongolia, #China. #TaiwanStrait #ChinaPLA". The tweet includes two images: An aerial satellite view showing a white mock facility layout in a desert area, and a Google Maps street view of what appears to be central Taipei, suggesting a comparison between a military training facility and its potential target." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>