DHUnplugged Podcast

March is the WORST month for markets in a long time. International equities getting killed Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down The markets Trump Card no longer works… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets) - Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105) - For Real ? End of War? Markets - WORST month in a long time - International equities getting killed - Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down Happy Passover and Happy Easter! - Made a brisket 2 ways! One Food item and then back to business - New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow..... - Reaction from crowd and recent FDA - Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....) Monday Morning Again - 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great... ---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled ------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher.... - It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?) - Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?) - So we have until the day after Easter? Tuesday.... - Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call - - Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/- - Everything turned higher - green across the board More Crazy Records - BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day. - For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented. - Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs ---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven days Hormuz Tolls/Permits - Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait - Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers - Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island - Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politically Hedge Funds and Money Managers - Plans continue - equities coming out to cash - Hedges applied - H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown --- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire ------- HOWEVER - damage has been done... More.... - Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war. - Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high. - Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month. Capitulation of More To Come? GS Prime Book Market Metrics FRIENDLY REMINDER - It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15 - IRA deposits due by 4/15 Food Deal - Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US. - Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place. - The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers. - This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distribution Emerging Markets - According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions. - A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms. - The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions w

JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE! Correction in some areas and sectors. Crude oil DROPS after “good” talks and a deal brewing with Iran. Airports are a mess. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE - Need a new CTP - Airports are a mess - Not Kosher - Futures moves Markets - From the Brink....All is good? - Correction in some areas and sectors - US Dollar Rises, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Drop - Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran - reversing all of the above JCD UPDATE - AH waiting by the microphone on a Tuesday in March - - no John... 9pm, 9:05, 9:15pm... - Health update etc...Can we get the story? - Thoughts on John S. Dvorak (Mimi on No Agenda) - Family backup! Market Update - Small-Caps taking the brunt of the selling - Russell 2000 small-caps are down 10% from their high - an official correction -- Interestingly the R2000 is still up this year by about 2% - Stocks up on Monday after President Trump says intense negotiations over weekend and postpones targeted attacks for 5 days (after giving a 48 hour ultimatum) Manipulation? Say it ain't so... - Dateline Monday morning... - Futures took a leg down pre-market - even after Friday (after close) President Trump said he was looking to wind down the Iran affair - At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume. - A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. - Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social. - Futures on DJ up 1,000 and oil down 89% --- Were there really conversations and negotiations over the weekend? A Few Leftovers that need to be discussed Private Credit Again - All of a sudden they are admitting there is a problem..... - Blackstone Inc. approved redemptions of a record 7.9% from its flagship private credit fund, totaling about $3.8 billion. - Redemption requests have increased across multiple private credit funds in recent quarters. - Investor unease is being driven by concerns over the private credit asset class, particularly exposure to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption. - According to Hugh Chung, CIO of Endowus, Blackstone’s experience suggests these concerns are asset-class wide, not limited to a small group of managers. - Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms, driven by rising defaults on loans to software companies. - Rowan emphasized that the shakeout is unlikely to be short-term, calling it foreseeable and predictable, and underscoring the importance of disciplined underwriting and strong risk management. - He argued that investors should prefer having credit risk reside within private markets firms, rather than on bank balance sheets backed by government-insured deposits, which can amplify systemic risk. - LATEST: Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of their biggest Private Credit funds. Michael Gayed: Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch PRIVATE CREDIT More OpenAI Funding - Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said in a release Friday. - The investment boosts OpenAI to a $730 billion pre-money valuation, which marks a big jump from its $500 billion valuation in a secondary financing in October. - The will use some of the money to expland and buy more chips and cloud from NVDA and AMZN (? Circular?) MORE ON THE CIRCULAR SHAM - OpenAI said it is expanding its existing $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services by $100 billion over the next eight years. - AWS will also serve as the exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI’s enterprise platform Frontier, which it unveiled earlier this month. AI and Where we stand - Can we talk about Anthropic? Is the Government going to crush Claude? - What is our Go-to AI bots? - What stage are we at right now? LLMs > Infernce>Agentic - - What comes after Agentic Netflix OUT - Last week, Netflix exited the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery after a competing bidder submitted a superior offer. - The decision followed pre-planned bidding scenarios, with co CEO Ted Sarandos saying the company knew exactly how to respond once the higher offer emerged. - Sarandos said the Paramount deal is likely to drive significant cost-cutting, including roughly $16 billion in reductions and thousands of job losses. - He emphasized that Netflix will continue investing in its business and explore new ways to collaborate with theater owners, rather than pursuing large acquisitions.&