Decoding the Gurus

Our cover is blown. Our secret funders unmasked. Code Red: Abort! Abort! This is not a drill.Supplementary Material 47: The DTG Conspiracy UNMASKED, Quantum Idiots, and Triggernometry Prophecies00:00 Glowing Introduction03:14 The Secret Conspiracy at the Heart of the Podcast08:17 The Israel Connection19:09 Cenk Uygur's Pickleball Conspiracy23:25 Comment Section Conspiracies30:20 Pizzagate Conspiracies Revisited37:55 The Value of debating with ChadBigCum42:26 AI discourse reflections43:43 Ben Burgis's hyperbolic reaction to AI use44:53 The AI revolution and its potential impacts47:53 Social and Economic Disruption and Job Replacement51:33 The Dangers of Slopified Work and AI economies55:47 Statistical Analysis Software and the value of Friction57:36 The Perils of AI Usage outside of your Skillset58:59 The Solution is within yourself!01:04:22 The Hundred Schools of AI discourse01:05:58 Double Slit and Quantum Physics Insights from Warren Smith01:12:39 Schrodinger's poor, misinterpreted cat01:13:48 The Wonderful Benjamin Boyce01:14:41 Quantum Woo and Arrogant Sensemakers01:18:29 Young Matt and Aged Chris01:20:13 The Triggernometry Prophecy01:23:54 Quid Pro Quo in the Discourse Circuit01:28:25 The Anti-Institutional Horseshoe Theory of MEHDI HASAN01:37:18 So Long and Thanks for All the Fish!The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 40 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusLinksReddit post unmasking our Israeli backersMother Jones article on whether 'pizza' is a codeword in the Epstein files (Spoiler: No it is not)Mickey's Opinion Piece in The Canadian Jewish News about "quiet anti-semitism"Ben Burgis is suggesting a journalist should be fired for using AICenk Uygur’s Pickleball ConspiracyVigeland & Citarella on Epstein: The One Conspiracy to Rule Them All (YouTube)Benjamin Boyce and Warren Smith discuss Quantum PhysicsTriggernometry: Mehdi Hasan Debate on the Iran War, Immigration and the Israel LobbyCreator of Horseshoe Theory Dies aged 100

Mickey is BACK with two new papers he has co-authored, a bunch of opinions, and a very unwelcome idea: maybe the problem with AI isn't that it doesn't work but that it works too well!The first paper, Against Frictionless AI, argues that AI assistance and its ability to take away the effort from thinking, writing, and smooth out social(like) interactions could be robbing those activities of the very thing that makes them worthwhile.The second paper is a more empirical investigation that presents a bunch of studies examining the topic of the (alleged) moralisation of AI. Some findings suggest that opposition to AI among some people isn't really about risks or trade-offs but rather about non-negotiable sacred moral values. Who knew?We also discuss effort justification, reproducible research, robosexual allyship, and just how much humanity remains within the cyborg Matthew Browne.And remember... It's just like our opinion, man!LinksDecoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs? (Patreon Series)Ovsyannikova, D., Oldemburgo de Mello, V., & Inzlicht, M. (2025). Third-party evaluators perceive AI as more compassionate than expert humans. Communications Psychology, 3, Article 4.Zohar, E., Bloom, P., & Inzlicht, M. (2026). Against frictionless AI. Communications Psychology, 4, Article 39.Oldemburgo de Mello, V., Côté, É., Ayad, R., Inbar, Y., Plaks, J., & Inzlicht, M. (2026). The moralization of artificial intelligence (Manuscript under review).Paul Bloom's Small Potatoes Substack- My friend thinks it's a good idea for us to spend most of our time with AI companions- Is it irresponsible for academics to refuse to use AI?Mickey's Speak Now Regret Later Substack - AI Alarmism Trades on Fear, Not FactsMickey's provocative tweet on his recent paperDTG Previous Interview with Mickey on the Replication Crisis, Mindfulness, and Responsible HeterodoxyAndy Masley Substack debunking the AI water usage claimsAndy Masley Substack: Using ChatGPT is not bad for the environment - a cheat sheetPataranutaporn, P., Karny, S., Archiwaranguprok, C., Albrecht, C., Liu, A. R., & Maes, P. (2025). “My Boyfriend is AI”: A computational analysis of human–AI companionship in Reddit’s AI community. arXiv.Critical response to Mickey's paper from Roy Schulam on Substack

Ken Wilber, the grand architect of Integral Theory, enters the Decoding chamber (wearing a striking but slightly unconvincing wig) as we explore a worldview that confidently absorbs every religion, philosophy, and half-remembered psychology paper into one majestic, Borg-like synthesis. Resistance, as it turns out, is not just futile... it is probably “first-tier thinking".This is a world of elaborate, baroque cosmologies. Layers within layers, quadrants within stages, spirals within states, with each offering a map of reality that grows more intricate the closer it gets to its own centre. Traditions are not debated so much as absorbed, their distinctiveness dissolved into a higher synthesis that always leads to the ultimate insight: integral theory.Get ready to experience high-level political analysis where Kamala Harris becomes a “fractured green" and Donald Trump the embodiment of a "rational orange". You will also learn how Ken is working with AI companies to help them incorporate integral thinking into their algorithms. The implications this has for human evolution are hard to fathom.Finally, in true Columbo fashion, we circle back to Matt's core philosophical system … panpsychism. Just a small detail, and also take some time to conduct a brief spiritual inquisition into Matt’s alleged Christian upbringing. Fortunately, nothing is rejected. Everything is integrated, including all possible critiques.SourcesSuma Gowda: Ken Wilber on Future of Consciousness, AI, Trump's Election: A Deep Dive into Spiral DynamicsThe Rise and Fall of Ken Wilber – Mark MansonRebel Wisdom: Interview with Ken Wilber- What Happened to Jordan PetersonDS Wilson finds wisdom in Ken's approachKen Wilber's website

In this Gurometer double bill, Matt and Chris break out the much-sought-after Gurometer™ to score Teal Swan and Scott Galloway across the 11 recurring guru traits. In one efficient episode, we compare cosmic-certified spirituality with secular man-talk (and a surprising amount of puffer-jacket merchandising). As a bonus, get ready to thrill at Matt's eternal puzzlement at his own simple binary question of 'guru-osity'.LinksGurometer scores to dateThe full episode is available for Patreon subscribers (51 mins).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusGurometer: Teal Swan and Scott Galloway00:00 Back to the Gurometer: Teal and Scott02:33 Galaxy Brain-ness04:18 Cultishness05:25 Anti-Establishmentarianism08:31 Grievance Mongering10:55 Self Aggrandisement and Narcissism 14:30 Cassandra Complex18:03 Revolutionary Theories21:49 Pseudo-Profound Bullshit26:07 Conspiracy Mongering28:50 Excessive Profiteering36:25 Moral Grandstanding40:33 Overall Gurometer Score41:27 Rapid Fire Bonus Guru Points

In our never-ending quest to alienate all potential online audiences, we finger-wag about rampant Epstein conspiracism and explain why we are, on balance, anti-murder.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (2 hours, 42 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusIn our never-ending quest to alienate all potential online audiences, we finger-wag about rampant Epstein conspiracism and explain why we are, on balance, anti-murder.00:00 Intro03:39 Flooding Adventures06:54 Eric's Troubles with his Silicon Friend13:09 Peter Boghossian's Hardcore for Grok17:16 A Promising Paper on reducing AI Hallucinations22:17 Statistical Consults23:12 Epstein Discourse Lollapalooza27:24 Eric Weinstein thinks Epstein is connected to UFOs29:09 Rogan Plays Apologist for Trump on Epstein32:21 Emma Vigeland and Joshua Citarella engage in Conspiracy Hypothesising35:07 Reasonable Conspiracy Theorising42:24 The Real Conspiracy44:26 Epstein and Ghislaine puppeting the culture wars48:18 The Joy of Conspiracy Theories53:29 Epstein and Bannon created QAnon as a Psyop01:01:37 What about ritual child abuse, dissolving bodies and cannibalism?01:09:05 Lurid Cannibal Fantasies01:15:56 Emma's UFO theory01:20:08 The Joe Roganification of Podcasts and some strategic disclaimers01:24:14 A dichotomy in contemporary American attitudes to Wealth?01:28:32 The Mainstream Media won't focus on Epstein's connections with Israel and Mossad01:32:08 The REAL Epstein scandal that no one wants to talk about01:34:36 Behind the Bastards coverage of Epstein01:36:01 Epstein's alleged role in creating microtransactions in games01:40:46 Epstein's cringey Edutainment ideas01:50:53 What Robert Evans Got Wrong01:54:08 There are No Coincidences02:00:57 The Danger of Appealing Narratives and also... Michael Tracey02:06:00 The Anti-Murder Podcast02:07:47 Warren Smith highlights Violent Rhetoric aimed at Konstantin02:14:12 Justifying Murder is Bad... M'Kay?02:17:55 Experiences of Violence and Naivety02:21:16 Levels of Political Violence02:23:49 Destiny's Community and Edgy Political Violence Takes02:27:56 Alienating online audiences 10102:30:14 Eric talks wormholes with a UFO maniac02:35:28 Lord of the Idiots02:36:18 Does Matt know Snorlax?02:39:43 A failed disclaimer outroLinksErik arguing with GrokBoghossian’s hardcore rules for GrokH-Neurons: On the Existence, Impact, and Origin of Hallucination-Associated Neurons in LLMs (Gao et al., 2025)YouTube comment under our NXIVM video about EpsteinPeople article claiming Epstein was Putin’s Wealth ManagerTaylor Lorenz – Panic World: How Epstein Warped the Entire InternetGarbage Day: “Here’s How Epstein Broke the Internet”Eric Weinstein on Piers Morgan connecting Epstein to UFOs and his “research”Triggernometry’s 7th appearance on RoganAmerican Alchemy: Eric Weinstein & Eric Davis on WormholesBBC: Ex-police chief said Trump told him in 2006 “everyone” knew about Epstein’s behaviourJoshua Citarella & Emma Vigeland – Epstein, Conspiracy & Right-wing Media | DoomscrollPew Research: Demographics of the Progressive Left in the United StatesDebunking claims about Ghislaine Maxwell being a Reddit power modObama did not say aliens are real – PBS NewsHourNBC News: Epstein’s relationship with Ehud BarakAl Jazeera: What were Jeffrey Epstein’s links to Israel?Warren Smith’s post about threats from Digital GnosisDigital Gnosis Substack statementDestiny’s Head Mod Confronts Him On His RhetoricEric Weinstein Demands UFO Secrets From Pentagon ScientistEpstein email documentsEmail from Pablos Holman to Epstein (document 1)Email from Pablos Holman to Epstein (document 2)Email from Pablos Holman to Epstein (document 3)Epstein forwarding Holman’s email to Bobby KotickPablos Holman responding and dunking on Kotick

In Part 2, Matt and Chris return to Blindboy, now broadcasting from a solar-powered podcast and therefore morally unimpeachable. The darkness, however, remains. Having established in Part 1 that the global elite are a vampiric class of depraved blackmailers who traffic children and delight in cruelty, in Part 2, Blindboy offers us some welcome relief in the form of answering the question of what it looks like to be one of the good ones. You may be surprised to learn that it involves a missing dressing room, muddy socks, and a loyalty to small-time promoters that some might call heroic.The episode also traces an ambitious historical arc: from street gangs in 1800s Limerick to the New York underworld, Meyer Lansky, Roy Cohn, CIA brothels and LSD interrogation programmes, and eventually to Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein. The connecting thread is a continuous tradition of sexual blackmail passed from master to apprentice that has, apparently, been quietly guiding Western (criminal) civilisation for the better part of two centuries. Matt and Chris sift through the historical material, examine the leaps required to keep the chain intact, and consider whether a conspiracy hypothesis that explains quite so much, quite so neatly, might deserve a small dose of skepticism. As you might anticipate, the episode features discussions of many of our old friends, including strategic disclaimers, moral grandstanding, and layered preemptive defences. Finally, get ready to learn who the real villain is, when the mask is finally removed.... spoiler: it's neoliberal capitalism. A revelation that some listeners may have suspected from the very beginning.LinksBlindboy: A Deep Dive into Jeffrey EpsteinThe Rest is Classified: Was Epstein a Russian Spy?Epstein Files Declassified: Mossad, Israel, and Ghislaine MaxwellEpstein Files Declassified: Was he a Spy?The Saville Inquiry Report on Bloody Sunday (2010)BBC Panorama reporting on the British Army’s Military Reaction Force (MRF)Popular Mechanics article on Operation Midnight ClimaxUS Senate Church Committee report on MK-Ultra and CIA covert experimentation and the archived reportNY Times: What Donald Trump Learned From Joseph McCarthy’s Right-Hand ManA less conspiratorial but more sympathetic perspective on Epstein's influence by Taylor Lorenz and Ryan BroderickAn in-depth critical review of Whitney Webb's book (by an academic who might be a little conspiracy-prone themselves)Webb, W. A. (2022). One Nation Under Blackmail-Vol. 1: The Sordid Union Between Intelligence and Crime That Gave Rise to Jeffrey Epstein, VOL. 1. Trine Day

In this episode, Matt and Chris turn their attention to Blindboy Boatclub, the Irish podcaster, satirist, and former member of the Rubberbandits. Blindboy is recognisable for his plastic-bag headwear, which has transitioned from a comedy prop into something a bit deeper and more philosophical. His podcast blends ASMR-style delivery, stream-of-consciousness storytelling, and cultural and political commentary, drifting between reflections on mental health, colonialism, Irish history, and the origins of the month of February. It is a distinctive format: whispered monologues over gentle piano where poetic association, personal reflection, and narrative intuition take precedence. For many listeners, that unique mixture of introspection, politics, and storytelling is exactly the appeal. As you might imagine, it is not entirely our bag, but to each their own.However, when Blindboy turns his attention to the recent Epstein document releases, the narrative becomes considerably darker and drifts into some familiar gurusphere territory. Blindboy describes this as a “phone call episode”, an unscripted stream-of-consciousness riff with minimal fact-checking, and then proceeds to expound for over an hour on a sprawling narrative connecting elite conspiracies to the hidden psychological forces shaping modern politics. Along the way we encounter a parade of lurid spectacles, including necrophilic Hell’s Angels, secret society members masturbating in coffins, murdered women buried on Trump’s golf course, potentially cannibalistic elites, and healthcare CEOs who delight in causing pain and misery. We also discover the crucial, if previously underappreciated, role that Jeffrey Epstein apparently played in the creation of the modern culture wars.As usual, the goal is not to adjudicate the politics involved but to examine the rhetorical and epistemic patterns at play. What happens when a charismatic storyteller combines emotionally compelling narratives with speculative leaps? How do strategic disclaimers like “I’m not saying it’s true” interact with extended conjecture? And why do some conspiracy frameworks feel persuasive when wrapped in an appealing ideological package? Matt and Chris listen through Blindboy’s riff to see how well the arguments hold up once the plinky-plonk piano fades and the claims are examined in the cold light of day.LinksBlindboy: A Deep Dive into Jeffrey EpsteinBlindboy: Butter Melting Down The Neck Of A Warm HorseThe Guardian: ‘I have a bag on my head. Deal with it!’ Is Blindboy the perfect podcaster?The Rubberbandits: Horse OutsideBobby Fingers' performance art on YouTubeJake Tapper shared the removed DOJ documents that contain allegations against TrumpA detailed debunking of the claim that Ghislaine Maxwell was a Reddit Mod2013 article covering approval for Trump’s family cemetery2016 New Yorker Article about Trump wanting to be buried at his golf courseThe Verge: Christopher Pool ‘moot’ rejects the claims about Epstein creating the 4chanRon Rosenbaum’s 1977 article on the Skull and Bones society initiationsAmerica's Secret Establishment: An Introduction to the Order of Skull & Bones (Sutton, 1986)Atlantic Article from 2000 that mentions the coffin masturbation rumourArticle from the NYT: How The Times Is Digging Into Millions of Pages of Epstein FilesThe Rest is Classified: Was Epstein a Russian Spy?Epstein Files Declassified: Mossad, Israel, and Ghislaine MaxwellEpstein Files Declassified: Was he a Spy?Le Monde: Some consequences for the Sultan who Epstein messaged about the torture videoBBC: Luigi Mangione will not face the death penalty if convicted, judge rulesAn in-depth critical review of Whitney Webb's book (by an academic who might be a little conspiracy prone themselves)2022 Podcast featuring Brian Thompson (United Healthcare CEO) discussing his views on healthcareCritical examination of the headline denial rate of UnitedHealthcare2024 US Senate Report on Insurance Denials under Medicare Advantage Insurers

Another episode where the guest is not a sense-making prophet or a galaxy-brained guru, as we engage in academic dialogos with Oxford psychologist Andrew Przybylski. This is a preview of our Decoding Academia series on Patreon (now 30+ episodes deep), where we swap internet gurus and rhetoric for actual researchers and empirical debates.Andrew’s work spans motivation, gaming, and digital technology. His most recent crime is that he studies the impact of technology and has not found evidence that it is destroying wellbeing and ushering in civilisational collapse. We discuss the ongoing moral panic around smartphones, social media, and teenagers’ allegedly pulverised minds and why much of the debate rests on statistical techniques roughly equivalent to staring deeply at Excel spreadsheets and hammering SPSS until the desired narrative appears.We get into measurement problems around “screen time,” why trivially small correlations become front-page catastrophes, and how the discourse rewards confident storytelling far more than (boring) careful causal inference. Also covered: cross-cultural evidence, the policy implications of airport pop science bestsellers, and the potential civilisational threat posed by Warhammer 40k.If you enjoy episodes where we analyse methods rather than metaphysics, the full Decoding Academia series lives on Patreon.Relevant Research (Przybylski & collaborators)Andrew's Academic Profile and Personal WebsiteFassi, L., Ferguson, A. M., Przybylski, A. K., Ford, T. J., & Orben, A. (2025). Social media use in adolescents with and without mental health conditions. Nature human behaviour, 9(6), 1283-1299.Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2023). Estimating the association between Facebook adoption and well-being in 72 countries. Royal Society open science, 10(8).Vuorre, M., Orben, A., & Przybylski, A. K. (2021). There is no evidence that associations between adolescents’ digital technology engagement and mental health problems have increased. Clinical Psychological Science, 9(5), 823-835.Orben, A., & Przybylski, A. K. (2019). The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use. Nature human behaviour, 3(2), 173-182.Orben, A., Dienlin, T., & Przybylski, A. K. (2019). Social media’s enduring effect on adolescent life satisfaction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(21), 10226-10228.Przybylski, A. K., & Weinstein, N. (2017). A large-scale test of the goldilocks hypothesis: quantifying the relations between digital-screen use and the mental well-being of adolescents. Psychological science, 28(2), 204-215.Johannes, N., Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2021). Video game play is positively correlated with well-being. Royal Society open science, 8(2), 202049.Przybylski, A. K., Rigby, C. S., & Ryan, R. M. (2010). A motivational model of video game engagement. Review of general psychology, 14(2), 154-166.

We return to some old friends, and almost immediately, we regret the decision. Also, get ready for some heady insights from history, a new conspiracy hypothesis, and Game Theory based insights.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 37 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusSupplementary Material 4500:00 Introduction01:15 Mick Drop04:44 Scott Galloway's Favourite Conservative06:37 Konstantin Kisin: Neither Right Nor Left11:51 Insane Ad Reads in Podcastistan17:08 Aella's insights on history20:30 Bret's New Conspiracy Episode22:10 Bret on Epstein, Pizzagate, and Ritual Murder30:58 Heather, the personification of strategic disclaimers31:49 Bret's New Conspiracy: Epstein is Alive36:31 The Real Culprit is Game Theory44:25 Bret is a Force of Nature who is always vindicated46:36 The Grand Unification of Conspiracy Theories48:25 Cenk Uygur promotes 9/11 Conspiracies51:42 Peter Thiel in Ghoulish Pro-Nazi Form55:15 The Descent of the Discourse57:47 Eric visits Triggernometry (Again): Russian Woes01:05:20 The Eric Squid Ink Manoeuvre01:14:49 Eric is pro-Nuclear weapons tests01:19:27 Weinstein drives can take us multiplanetary01:28:28 The Weinstein Function: Justifying Enlightened Centrists Everywhere01:30:37 Drew Pavlou's latest stunt backfiresSourcesIs Epstein Alive? The 313th Evolutionary Lens (Bret Weinstein & Heather Heying podcast episode)DarkHorse clip discussing the Epstein theory (YouTube)Aella’s history insights threadAella’s large thread about homeschoolingInterview where Aella discusses the perceived benefits of homeschoolingBret Weinstein responding to critics saying he has lost his mindBret Weinstein linking Epstein and COVID conspiraciesCenk Uygur promoting 9/11 conspiracy claimsCenk Uygur criticising media responses to his conspiracy theoriesPeter Thiel comments invoking Weimar-era parallelsDrew Pavlou’s stunt backfires

Ever heard of cognitive dissonance? That thing a psychology lecturer might have explained to you once upon a time, likely using the same UFO cult example everyone else uses. Well, a new paper by Thomas Kelly suggests that the UFO cult example might have been ever so slightly oversold.Kelly's archival work suggests that the researchers didn't just observe the cult as reported. Instead, they infiltrated it, faked supernatural experiences, assumed quasi-leadership roles, and then wrote up the results as if the group had spontaneously doubled down on their failed prophecy, which they had not. Because the leader recanted, and the group fell apart shortly after the failed prophecy. Minor details.Matt and Chris discuss this paper, a 2024 multilab replication, and some other papers by Kelly, considering the ever-reliable tendency of researchers to find exactly what they are looking for.It's cognitive dissonance all the way down, folks.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 10 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusDecoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked?00:00 Introduction02:04 Cognitive Dissonance Theory06:41 Classic lab evidence: effort justification & the ‘severe initiation’ study08:33 When Prophecy Fails: The Original Account10:54 The debunking: archival evidence, misconduct claims, and ethical red flags20:22 Replication reality check: multi-lab results and ‘strong vs weak’ dissonance31:40 Beyond one case: survivorship bias, failed prophecies, and early Christianity parallels35:51 Christianity as Historical Anomaly or Cognitive Dissonance Exemplar?41:48 Thomas Kelly: Interesting biosafety takes and a possible Christian lens45:43 The importance of seeking for disconfirming evidence50:23 Conspiracy-theory dynamics & narrative elaboration56:30 Classical Psychological Theories and Personal Motivations01:03:07 Steps that can be taken to reduce biases01:05:01 Stay tentative, check evidence, and don’t pick sides too fast01:06:30 A lesson from Scott Alexander!SourcesAcademic Papers and BooksFestinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford University Press.Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. University of Minnesota Press.Festinger, L., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1959). Cognitive consequences of forced compliance. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 58(2), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0041593 (The original induced-compliance/$1/$20 study)Kelly, T. (2026). Debunking "When Prophecy Fails." Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 62(1), e70043. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhbs.70043Kelly, T. (2025). Failed prophecies are fatal. International Journal for the Study of New Religions, 14(1), 48–71. https://doi.org/10.1558/ijsnr.33085Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on liking for a group. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 59(2), 177–181. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0047195Vaidis, D. C., Sleegers, W. W. A., van Leeuwen, F., DeMarree, K. G., Sætrevik, B., Ross, R. M., ... & Priolo, D. (2024). A multilab replication of the induced-compliance paradigm of cognitive dissonance. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 7(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459231213375Croyle, R. T., & Cooper, J. (1983). Dissonance arousal: Physiological evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45(4), 782–791. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.45.4.782 (The study that the Vaidis et al. 2024 multilab replication was based on)Podcasts ReferencedThe Studies Show [formerly Science Fictions] podcast. Episode 90: Cognitive dissonance.QAA Podcast. Episode 350: “When ‘When Prophecy Fails’ Fails.” Interview with Thomas Kelly.Conspirituality podcast. Episode 284: “When Prophecy-Science Fails” (w/ Thomas Kelly), 20 Nov 2025.Blog Posts & Other SourcesAlexander, S. (2023, February 14). Contra Kavanagh on fideism. Astral Codex Ten. (Contains the PMDD / Slate vs. Vox example discussed near the end of the episode)Kavanagh, C. (2023). Am I a fideist? Medium. (Chris’s response to Scott Alexander)Alexander, S. (2023, February 15). Trying again on fideism. Astral Codex Ten.Kelly, T. Open Science Framework repository containing scanned archival materials from the Festinger papers (Bentley Historical Library, University of Michigan).Kelly, T. (2025, March 18). Yet another White House says it won't fund engineered deadly viruses. Tablet Magazine.Kelly, T. Christians for Impact. Politics and policy.

Cult Season rumbles on as Chris and Matt expand their minds in an attempt to absorb the cosmic insights of spiritual influencer and alleged cult leader Teal Swan (born Mary Teal Bosworth, 1984). Our intrepid hosts explore her recent appearance on the Just Tap In podcast with Emilio “starchild” Ortiz — a beanie-wearing vessel of pure credulity, lobbing softball metaphysical questions gently into the astral winds.The topic covered is ostensibly “Major 2026 Predictions” but this is really just an entry point for discussion of the ancient origins of AI, multiversal astral contract negotiations, and, of course, the urgent need to discuss masculinity before we spiritually implode.You will learn insights, such as: how AI will eliminate ageing, guide us to SOURCE, amplify our shadow, and corrupt and deceive us ... all at once. Aliens and other cosmic beings are deeply concerned with and also not really all that bothered with humanity. Also, pop stars are apparently set to receive divine instructions to stabilise the collective psyche in 2026. And how we are all trapped in a planetary pressure cooker that will run at least until 2030. Teal is trying not to scare us, but it doesn’t look great (though it might also be great and lead to utopia).Expect astral board meetings, sensemaking redefinitions of “power” and “love”, warnings about the painful sacrifices required to join Teal’s “conscious community”, and some distinctly uncomfortable talk about opening gates and reframing mother–son dynamics. As ever, Matt and Chris attempt to decode the elevated vagueness, semantic gliding, and cosmic scaling of very earthly anxieties.All hail SOURCE!Decoding ContentJust Tap In Podcast #260: "Teal Swan – Why 2026 Is a Psychological & Relational Tipping Point for Humanity"LinksThe Gateway (Gizmodo Podcast, 2018) - Six-part investigative series by Jennings BrownThe Deep End (Freeform/Hulu, 2022) - Four-part docuseries by Jon KasbeMormon Stories #1607: Growing Up with Teal Swan - Diana Hansen Ribera - Interview with Teal's childhood best friendMormon Stories #1328-1331: Leaving Mormonism to Join Teal Swan's Cult - Jared DobsonBBC- Teal Swan: The woman encouraging her followers to visualise deathScam Goddess: The Culty Con of Teal Swan w/ Sarah MarshallConspirituality 111: Who's Afraid of Teal Swan (pt 2) (w/Jennings Brown)Prosody's Gurudex Website

In this Decoding Academia episode, we take a look at a 2025 paper by Daria Ovsyannikova, Victoria Olden, and Mickey Inzlicht, asking a question that might make some people uncomfortable/angry, specifically, are AI-generated responses perceived as more empathetic than those written by actual humans?We walk through the design in detail (including why this is a genuinely severe test), hand out deserved open-science brownie points, and discuss why AI seems to excel particularly when responding to negative or distress-laden prompts. Along the way, Chris reflects on his unsettlingly intense relationship with Google’s semi-sentient customer-service agent “Bubbles,” and we ask whether infinite patience, maximal effort, and zero social awkwardness might be doing most of the work here.This is not a paper about replacing therapists, outsourcing friendship, or mass-producing compassion at scale. It is a careful demonstration that fluent, effortful, emotionally calibrated text is often enough to convince people they are being understood, which might explain some of the appeal of the Gurus.SourceOvsyannikova, D., de Mello, V. O., & Inzlicht, M. (2025). Third-party evaluators perceive AI as more compassionate than expert humans. Communications Psychology, 3(1), 4.Decoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs?01:40 Introducing the Paper10:29 Study Methodology14:21 Chris's meaningful relationship with YouTube AI agent Bubbles16:23 Open Science Brownie Points17:50 Empathetic Prompt Engineering: Humans and AIs21:17 Study 1 and 231:35 Study 3 and 437:00 Study Conclusions42:27 Severe Hypothesis Testing45:11 Seeking out Disconfirming Evidence47:06 Why do AIs do better on negative prompts?54:48 Final Thoughts

In this interview episode, we are joined by physicists Sam Gregson (Bad Boy of Science YouTube channel) and Tim Henke to examine the rise of science populism: a style of science communication that borrows the tactics of political populism, including grievance narratives, institutional distrust, and conspiratorial framing, while presenting its advocates as lone truth-tellers battling a corrupt academic elite.We discuss how DTG favourites like Sabine Hossenfelder and Eric Weinstein, as well as fresh new faces Brian Keating and Avi Loeb, deploy selective truths about physics to fuel self-aggrandising, anti-expert narratives.Along the way, we also cover stuff like why “physics hasn’t progressed in 50 years”, cranks are useful props for populist arguments, and the strange obsession with Nobel Prizes.If you are interested in guru dynamics, science communication, and physics crankery, this might be an episode for you.LinksBad Boy of Science (Sam Gregson)Tim's Profile WebsiteBad Boy of Science – The Rise of Physics PopulisersTheories of Everything (Kurt Jaimungal)Losing the Nobel Prize – Brian KeatingInto the Impossible (Brian Keating)Sabine Hossenfelder’s YouTube ChannelThe Portal (Eric Weinstein)The Galileo Project (Avi Loeb)Sean Carroll – Mindscape / Preposterous UniverseNot Even Wrong (Peter Woit)

We descend once more into the Gurusphere, encountering secret peasant archmages, decline narratives, Epstein emails, and endless moral panics.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 37 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus00:00 SM 44 PF00:23 Introduction01:30 Konstantin Kisin: Not Left Or Right, Just Right05:20 Boghossian is shocked by pessimistic French people08:50 Konstantin and Warren Smith as relics of the anti-SJW era12:45 A PSA! Hyper Capitalism Tier Update!18:36 Matt's AV Setup20:01 Recommendation: Successville (British version)21:40 My peasant farmer dad is secretly an Archmage!28:14 Scott Galloway talks with Gwyneth Paltrow40:18 American Capitalist Culture and the Gurus48:54 Bryan Johnson vs AG151:45 Bryan Johnson & Epstein Schmoozing58:09 Bari Weiss's Peter Attia Woes59:14 Epstein and QAnon Conspiracies01:03:23 Overinterpreting Epstein emails01:09:04 Shermer promotes Dave Rubin to hawk his book on Truth01:10:37 Conspiracy Theory prevalence on left and riht01:17:44 Jonathan Haidt and his anti-social media crusade01:23:15 Plato on the Corruption of the Youth01:24:30 The Eternal Appeal of Decline Narratives01:26:22 They won't let you enjoy things anymore...01:30:24 Matt's laissez-faire parenting tips01:31:45 Life lessons from Lord of the Rings01:34:17 The Witch King of Angmar defeated by a Woke White WomenSourcesKonstantin Kisin on not being left or rightBoghossian and Kisin bemoan civilisational decline narrativesThe Guardian on Bari Weiss’s new CBS “Podcastistan” hiresNiall Ferguson on how Trump “won Davos”The Guardian: Elon Musk had more extensive ties to Epstein than previously knownMy Farmer Dad Is Secretly an Archmage – viral short-form fantasy dramaBehind the Scenes of My Farmer Dad Is Secretly an ArchmageOriginal Chinese version of My Farmer Dad Is Secretly an Archmage (Destiny’s Keeper)Michael Shermer promoting Dave RubinMichael Shermer previously promoted Stefan MolyneuxBryan Johnson criticising AG1 (sort of)Miami Herald’s early investigative coverage of Jeffrey EpsteinEarly New York Magazine profile of Jeffrey Epstein (2002)Vanity Fair on Jeffrey Epstein and elite power networks (2003)New York Magazine on Epstein before the non-prosecution deal (2007)Michael Shermer on conspiracies and truth-seeking on The Rubin ReportHong (2026) on the cognitive foundations of decline narrativesNew York Times on Jonathan Haidt and new evidence on social mediaOliver Curry pushes back on Haidt’s claimsChris Ferguson responds critically to Haidt’s arguments

In a rare departure from our usual diet of online weirdos, this episode features an academic who is very much not a guru. We’re joined by Julia Rohrer, a psychologist at Leipzig University whose work straddles the disciplinary boundaries of open science, research transparency, and causal inference. Julia is also an editor at Psychological Science and has spent much of the last decade politely pointing out that psychologists often don’t quite know what they’re estimating, why, or under which assumptions.We talk about the state of psychology after the replication crisis, whether open science reforms have genuinely improved research practice (or just added new boxes to tick), and why causal thinking is unavoidable even when researchers insist they are “only describing associations.” Julia explains why the standard dance of imply causality → deny causality → add boilerplate disclaimer is unhelpful, and argues instead for being explicit about the causal questions researchers actually care about and the assumptions required to answer them.Along the way we discuss images of scientists in the public and amongst the gurus, how post-treatment bias sneaks into even well-intentioned experimental designs, why specifying the estimand matters more than running ever-fancier models, and how psychology’s current norms can potentially punish honesty about uncertainty. We also touch on her work on birth-order effects and offer some possible reasons for optimism.With all the guru talk, people sometimes ask us to recommend things that we like, and Julia's work is one such example!LinksJulia Rohrer’s websiteThe 100% CI blogRohrer, J. M. (2024). Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 18(3), e12948.Rohrer, J. M., Tierney, W., Uhlmann, E. L., DeBruine, L. M., Heyman, T., Jones, B., ... & Yarkoni, T. (2021). Putting the self in self-correction: Findings from the loss-of-confidence project. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 16(6), 1255-1269.Rohrer, J. M., Egloff, B., & Schmukle, S. C. (2015). Examining the effects of birth order on personality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(46), 14224-14229.BEMC MAY 2024 - Julia Rohrer - "Causal confusions correlate with casual conclusions"Dr. Tobias Dienlin - Less casual causal inference for experiments and longitudinal data: Research talk by Julia Rohrer