Daybreak with Anton

Cash savings balances are near all-time highs. When overall trading is thin (like in August when many investors are on vacation), the market is prone to stall. After Labor Day, school will be in full swing, and most market players will be back at their desks. Will you be ready when investors are back in the driver's seat and cash balances start to roll back into the stock market? Call us if you are not as we welcome the opportunity to assist you and your family.

Institutional investors' biggest fears for the past two years are the impact of rising interest rates due to the Federal Reserve rate hike campaign. Now that a recession appears to be a low probability, investors new fear is if the Fed's will resume more rate hikes if inflation appears to be heating up. Wage growth will be a major factor to rising inflation going into 2024 and investors will be encouraged by reports that employers are slowing their hiring and wage increases. Listen in this Brief our analysis of the labor market and what it may mean to investors going into the fourth quarter.

The stock market has taken a pause since peaking its year high on July 31. Is this the beginning of a more protracted correction or a new buying opportunity? In this Brief we unpack what's we believe investors are doing and a strategy for your portfolio.

Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) release their report on the sentiment of small business owners. Although the index is still well below prior year highs, the trend has been positive for the last several months and recovering from lows reached earlier this year. Read in this issue our observation of this report and what it may indicate for the stock market.

Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects of consumer spending based on their financial assessment of households. Financially stable consumers spend more and especially when consumers feel "wealthy" based on their view of the economy, equity in their home, and investment account values. We can learn a lot about the prospects of the stock market based on retailers' assessments for the holidays because favorable results for both investors and retailers are dependent on consumer spending. In this Weekly Brief we do a deep dive into what data executives are looking at to potentially derive our own conclusions for the stock market. The hope for all is a Christmas rally due to continued economic grow and everyone enjoying a great holiday season. Merry Christmas!

President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 on December 29, 2022 that has improved in many ways the ability to save for retirement. However, it is important to monitor tax laws as it concerns your retirement account. The 401(k) retirement plan is not disappearing yet, but the potential of double taxation or worse on retirement distributions can impact your overall returns. Read in this Weekly Brief as we unpack the new laws as it concerns 401(k) and possible changes to your retirement contributions beginning 2024.

The Federal Reserve has recently announced its 10th rate hike in an effort to curb inflation, leading analysts to predict a potential recession in 2023. It's important to remember that recessions are a normal part of economic fluctuations, with the US having experienced 13 since World War II. Attempting to time recessions or markets is impossible, and making significant portfolio moves can be challenging even for professional investors. Jerome Powell's recent comments may suggest a pause in future rate hikes, and overall, we maintain a positive outlook for the US economy and stock market.

In 2014 my wife gave me a gift certificate for an introductory flight. That 45-minute flight sparked a lifelong interest in flying that resulted in obtaining my pilot's license and aviation experiences I had never thought possible. In this personal reflection on pursuing my aviation goals, are many life lessons that will hopefully encourage you to take the first steps in pursuit of your lifelong big audacious goals.

Are the fears and worries in 2022 of a recession in 2023 coming to fruition? In this Weekly Brief we review the challenges the Federal Reserve faced in 2020 and 2021 and why they needed to raise rates as rapidly as possible in 2022. The concern among many analysts and commentators were the rate increases would stifle economic growth and spiral the economy into a recession. Read in this Week our observations of recent economic reports that don't seem to be indication such dire outcomes.

Yesterday's National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey on small businesses indicated many key aspects about the health of small businesses. As expected, hiring qualified employees and supply chain disruptions are still a factor for businesses. However, there are several positive indicators about small businesses that represent 99.9% of all businesses in America and have created 66% of all new jobs since 1996. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the report and what it may mean for the stock market.

Recent economic reports on labor and manufacturing are indicating a slowing but growing economy. In this Weekly Brief we review several reports that together paint a picture of a soft landing of a sustainable and growing economy albeit at a slower pace. The scenario that Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, had hoped would be the case vs the doom and gloom crash landing many analysts predicted last year.

Inventories are dropping for manufacturing and trade companies while rising for retail businesses. A mixed bag of information that may indicate that businesses are still growing while consumers are pinching pockets on their spending. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of these reports and the status of the US stock market.

Consumer sentiment drops, but will it affect spending? Find out why tracking spending habits is a better predictor of the economy than consumer sentiment. Plus, a look at how stimulus dollars and wage increases have impacted household income in 2020 and 2021.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank may not be a systemic issue prevalent in the banking sector. However, there are challenges in the credit and lending industry due to the rapid rise of interest rates in 2022 and into 2023. Read in this article an in-depth analysis of the missteps of Silicon Valley Bank that lead to its ultimate demise and what we can learn from this situation.

Yesterday's Factory Orders indicated that consumer spending remains in positive up trend and a good start of the year. The US economy remains in a positive trend and more favorable in contrast to Germany's Factory Report also released yesterday.

The doomsayers predicting a recession in late 2022 or in 2023 so far are thankfully incorrect. The US GDP gained momentum in the second half of 2022 and recovered all the declines of the first half to end the year with positive overall gain. Read in this Weekly Brief more evidence we referenced why recession fears may have been overstated and what we see as a likely forecast for 2023.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their monthly housing sales report this morning. The bad news is the report indicated a 12th consecutive monthly decline in home sales with the good news the decline may be slowing. In fact, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying that he forecast the potential bottoming of home sales with the potential to see increase activity going into the spring.

Analysts have been forecasting a hard landing for the economy in 2023 due to many concerns that include the aggressive rate hike policy by the Federal Reserve. As it turned out, the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy has proven to be more accurate than analyst's projections. In this Brief we review the possibilities of either a soft landing or no landing at all.

Spring and summer always follow winter. No matter how cold or deep the snow, spring is only a few months away. If history is a guide to the future of the US economy, this period of world pandemic, supply chain disruptions, hyperinflation, and war, will also fade away and lead into the next US bull market and economic growth trend. Read in this Weekly Brief or listen to our podcast as we review key similar challenging times in US history and how the economy not only survived but thrived in subsequent years.

The advantage of being at the bottom of market cycles is the potential for significant gains during the recovery can be terrific. In this issue we outline several stocks bouncing back big time – 30% to 40% - so far this year. Is this the beginning of a new uptrend or a "dead cat bounce" when stocks experience a short term rally only to reverse to new lows?

The Federal Reserve started a rate hike policy on March 17, 2022, that continued throughout the year, targeting to lower inflation based on several indicators. Investors are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a recession. Retail sales have declined in the past two months, which suggests that the advance estimate for third-quarter GDP will be lower than previously thought, with personal consumption expenditures less supportive of growth. Additionally, the housing market has seen a decline in prices and transactions, which typically represents the largest expenditure of consumer spending, and the relevance of this is that it may impact the US economy, stock market, and corporate profits.

Another year over and a new year starting. If there is any time to get ahead of your schedule and plan and take proactive steps towards your goals, it is now. In this Brief, we discuss some real-life lessons learned on the SEC Football field that turned the tables on Alabama's Nick Saban.

Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, wants to reduce inflation by raising interest rates. This is important to investors and affects industries like housing and energy. The Fed slowed its rate hike plan, recognizing the impact on inflation. A professor suggests that inflation may already be at the target rate.

With a new year is new hope for an improving stock market. In this Weekly Brief we review many of the anomalies that impacted almost all sectors of the economy that created unusual price swings. Most investors forget that the pandemic and subsequent government restrictions on society occurred during a strong economy that appears to still be in tack three years later. Most certainly, the US economy is recovering faster than most other countries. We look at how prices fluctuated during 2020 and 2021 that set up a needed correction that may provide insight to how markets may recover in 2023.

DFTF or "Don't Fight the Feds" has been the theme for investors this year. The steady decline of the stock market has been matched by the aggressive rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve. However, investors are slowly renewing their hope that on December 14 Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, will give the message investors have been waiting all year for. In this Weekly Brief we decipher the impact the Federal Reserve is having on the stock market and more importantly what other factors are in place to ignite the next market rally once the Federal Reserve begins to slow their rate hike policy.

Mixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992. However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers. A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders. No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising interest rates and prices and implementing precautions should the US economy slow faster than projected. All this to say, is the most anticipated recession forecasted for 2023 indicates a low bar of expectations for next year that may result in pleasant surprises should conditions not be as dire as analysts' project.

In this week's episode, Anton shares some stories in his recent months and reasons he is thankful - also, why you might be too!

Over the past 30 years of managing investor portfolios, the theater of financial markets has produced some of the most interesting and sometimes comical characters of Wall Street. Most importantly is how we can learn from them and identify who we should listen to for advice and those simply to watch and listen. In this Weekly Brief, we feature the fun of this theater from the opening act early each morning and the willing participants of Wall Streeters, all of us investors. Its great entertainment this financial theater and for many a terrific way to grow your investment account.

The US continues to improve in nearly every industry sector and none better than the record 23 consecutive monthly gain in factory and manufacturing production. The Federal Reserve is causing a re-balance of economy with many long term benefits to investors. Listen in this Weekly Brief our positive analysis and forecast of the stock market and economy.

The next 60 days represent the "holiday season" and for us some of the most memorable times of the year. Read in this Brief the joys of this time of the year and what you can look forward to.

Life is like one long hike. Planning, preparation, and proper supplies will assure a successful hike as it will also in life. Listen to this issue, our experiences hiking in Maui, and the life lessons we learned along the way.

The holiday season is near and in this Weekly Brief we review projections for holiday sales this season. The stock market has started the fourth quarter with a bang and we discuss what will be needed to continue this rally.

History has many experiences of the Dow Jones Industrial Average selling off and entering new bear markets (down > 20%). However, the Dow Jones has always recovered from a selloff and in many situations rallied to new highs within 24 months. In 2020, the Dow Jones plummeted 37% in 40 days but was back to its previous high by November 13 or in 275 days. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of past stock market corrections and subsequent rallies that demonstrate the resilience of the US economy and stock market.

Is the housing market on track for another bust of declining home prices and high vacancies? Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of this week's National Association of Housing Builders and our view of the future of the residential housing market.

This week I attended the Advisor Circle Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, CA. In this Brief I review comments from key speakers on the economy and stock market. Hint, they are not panicking.

The saying is the stock market rises like a staircase and drops like an elevator. Listen in this Weekly Brief why we remain optimistic and propose patience over panic as your investment strategy.

Jerome Powell gave his speech last week and Wall Street is having a fit. Federal Reserve is not giving them what they want! Can the Federal Reserve successfully tame the inflation challenges of the future of our economy? Listen in this Brief our view of Jerome Powell's speech and most importantly his missed insights that evidence points to their policy is working.

Is housing about to experience another crash like 2008? Listen in this Brief our analysis of last week's existing and new housing sales reports and projections for the residential market.

The stock market is in recovery, but the bond market is not. Why are stocks going up and bonds declining in value? Listen in this Weekly Brief as we unpack this divergence and reveal the long term risk with bonds.

There are more jobs available in the US than in recent history. Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that over 528,000 new jobs were filled the previous year month and nearly 100% higher than expectations. Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and the prospects for the stock market and holiday sales in the second half of this year.

More bad economic news is music to the ears of the Federal Reserve. Listen in this Weekly Brief why this is good news not only for the Federal Reserve but investors as well.

Again the market proves that it looks to where the economy is going and not where its been. Last month there was record setting bad economic data while the SP500 had its best month of the year. Listen in this Brief our analysis of this separation and what it might mean for your investments.

When is bad news good? (e.g. your distant uncle died and you have an inheritance) The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index dropped in July to the lowest level since 2020. Listen in this Brief our analysis of this report and why it is good news for investors going into 2023.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released it's Consumer Price Index report that at high level appears to be on a torrid rise not seen since November 1981. But is there more to this report and is it possible a few bad apples have outsized influence on the index? Listen in this Brief as we break down this report and determine if there is a silver lining to be discovered

Now that fixed mortgage rates have ballooned 100% these past several months will housing continue to boom or bust? More importantly, what will be the impact on the future of the stock market? Listen in this Weekly Brief our analyst of housing and stock market as the Federal Reserve battles rising inflation.

Giant slayer Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, is battling the giant of hyperinflation. Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of his battle strategy and our score card of his success against rising prices and the future of the stock market.

Consumer sentiment drops to the lowest level in recorded history since the 1940's. How bad is our economy and why are people so depressed? Listen in this Brief comparisons to previous times when consumers almost felt this bad and how the stock market performed shortly after consumer sentiment reached these lows.

Is the US in approaching a recession, already in a recession, or nearly completing a recession? Listen in this Brief the true definition of a recession and historically how the stock market performs before, during, and after recessions.

Can investor herd mentality predict stock market bottoms and tops? Listen in this report one indicator that has consistently preceded the next stock market rally.