Dantes Outlook Market Podcast

In a rapidly shifting global landscape marked by geopolitical tension and increasing fragmentation, wealth management is no longer just about markets. It’s about optionality. In this episode, Damanick Dantes, CMT, founder and portfolio manager at Dantes Outlook, sits down with Dalton Skach of Henley & Partners to explore how ultra-high-net-worth individuals and families are thinking beyond traditional portfolios by integrating global mobility, jurisdictional diversification, and long-term planning into their wealth strategy. The conversation covers recent market and geopolitical developments, insights from global mobility trends, and how aligning where you invest with where you live can enhance resilience across economic cycles. For global entrepreneurs, family offices, and investors navigating liquidity events, this episode offers a timely perspective on building a truly global wealth framework. Visit www.dantesoutlook.com for more information on our total portfolio solutions. And our friends at www.henleyglobal.com for information about global citizenship and residency. Our team can connect you. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Key Topics: The original Turtle experiment and lessons from Richard Dennis Why and how trend following focuses on small losses and large winners Volatility-based position sizing and risk management discipline - Diversification across equity markets, currencies, commodities, bonds, and individual stocks Current market dispersion and what it means for systematic strategies The psychological challenge of sticking with trend during whipsaws and drawdowns The growing role of ETFs in managed futures How advisors can size and integrate trend-following sleeves within broader allocations Key Takeaways: Trend following is agnostic — it adapts rather than predicts. Diversification across a broad global universe improves opportunity and resilience. Proper allocation and manager selection matter more than short-term performance. No strategy is perfect — understanding drawdowns and behavioral discipline is critical. Learn More: Jerry Parker & Chesapeake Capital: www.chesapeakecapital.com Dantes Outlook's RIA & OCIO Services: www.dantesoutlook.com Dantes Outlook Substack for ongoing research and portfolio insights: www.dantes.substack.com Disclaimer: The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Episode Highlights:Why 2025 delivered strong returns across most asset classes — except cryptoBitcoin and Ethereum’s negative YTD performance in contextKey technical breakdowns in Bitcoin using weekly and monthly trend modelsThe erosion of the “digital gold” narrative and rising equity correlationsWhy extreme fear isn’t enough to signal a bottomMacro regime insights: inflation vs. growth sensitivity in BitcoinGold’s resilience and role as a portfolio stabilizerHow Dantes Outlook’s Bitcoin/Gold rotation strategy navigated the yearResearch & Data Sources:Market and on-chain data from GlassnodeInternal quantitative models from Dantes OutlookAcademic research on asset behavior across macro regimesHappy holidays from Dantes Outlook!Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Topics Covered:November performance recap for the Moderate Global Balanced PortfolioActive equity selection and regional tiltsFixed income positioning: intermediate-term U.S. TreasuriesYTD performance vs. benchmark and risk-adjusted resultsBitcoin–Gold Rotation strategy: why gold dominated signals this yearHow aggressive clients can use the rotation sleeveNew absolute-return breakout strategy and its early outperformanceHow global diversification and trend-based discipline helped narrow tracking errorWhere to find the full allocation breakdown (Substack)Key Highlights:Portfolio outperformed the global 60/40 benchmark by 30 bps in NovemberEquity sleeve remains 63% of the portfolio, with strong regional contributionsFixed income tilts added to monthly returnsBitcoin–Gold model returned 41% YTD, with reduced crypto drawdownsAbsolute-return strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 by ~8% since launchVisit us at www.dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Key TopicsThe cyclicality of trend, value, momentum, and other stylesWhy Dantes Outlook blends trend, relative strength, and dispersionManaging risk during the crucial mid-30s to 40s accumulation yearsSequence-of-returns risk and why it is the “silent killer” of retirement portfoliosHow rolling return analysis helps investors avoid misleading conclusionsThe case for global diversification beyond U.S.-centric portfoliosWhy non-U.S. equities may be entering a long-term leadership cycleMaintaining a risk mandate you can stick with across market regimesVisit us at www.dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Key Topics CoveredWhy major equity indices sit far above trendUnderstanding rotations and style cyclesLessons from past extremes (2021, dot-com bubble, 2008–2021 growth dominance)Why valuations matter for decade-long returnsThe risks behind overspending, AI optimism, and mega-sized corporate debt dealsInsights from the Association for Corporate Growth conference in NYCInnovation vs. investor objectivity: avoiding hope-based investingHow the Dantes Outlook's framework is adjusting factor exposureWhy global value is gaining relative strengthWhy combining value + quality (“QARP”—Quality at a Reasonable Price) smooths returnsQuality as a low-volatility style that resists market drawdownsWhy shifting entirely to deep value today would be a mistakeCreating a global blend across different economic cyclesInvestor TakeawaysMarkets move in cycles—don’t chase the latest swing.High valuations today imply lower long-term expected returns.A blended factor approach can avoid “value traps” and speculative bubbles.Quality + value helps build a durable core with opportunistic upside.Patience and discipline drive long-term returns—not market gamification.Best ForLong-term investorsAdvisors and CIOs refining factor exposuresListeners seeking plain-language explanations of market cyclesAnyone rethinking portfolio positioning in a late-cycle environmentVisit us at www.dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

In this episode:Why extreme bearish sentiment often precedes market recoveriesThe role of relative strength in identifying global equity opportunitiesHow Dantes Outlook is adapting its allocation framework amid shifting leadershipThe importance of staying systematic and globally diversified through volatilityFor full portfolio updates and performance insights:👉 Access the Alpha Capture Portfolio Report on Dantes Outlook Substack (subscribers only)Disclaimer:This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Dantes Outlook LLC is a registered investment advisor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment decisions can change based on market conditions. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Topics Covered:High-beta vs. low-volatility stock performanceWhy narrow market breadth can lead to leadership shiftsSigns of improving fundamentals after a mild earnings recessionThe impact of new small-business tax cuts on growth and jobsThe case for quality stocks in a late-cycle environmentGlobal opportunities in value and emerging-market equitiesKey Takeaway:Rotation and selectivity — not just momentum — will shape the next leg of this market.Visit us at dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

In This Episode:Why Treasuries are having their strongest October in years.The significance of the negative stock–bond correlation and what it signals for portfolios.Inflation and labor market trends supporting potential Fed rate cuts.How gold, palladium, and other metals fit into a late-cycle allocation.Our portfolio adjustments: longer-duration Treasuries, selective pro-cyclical tilts, and risk management strategies.Why loose financial conditions continue to support speculation — and how we’re positioning for the next phase of the cycle.Resources & Links:Subscribe to our Dantes Outlook Substack for full market intelligence updates and model portfolio insights.Email our team: [email protected] for private client access and portfolio consultation. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

In this episode:Key findings from the Q3 2025 Market Intelligence ReportWhy asset dispersion is narrowing and what that means for diversificationWhere our models see strength—select metals, emerging markets, and durationThe implications of a neutral dollar and extended U.S. equitiesHow we’re positioning portfolios for selective exposure and flexibilityReferenced in this episode:Dantes Outlook Market Intelligence Report (Q3 2025)Substack: https://dantesoutlook.substack.comLearn more: https://dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Topics Covered:– Introduction: A new perspective from Riyadh and Dubai– First impressions of the Middle East’s financial centers– Inside the CMT Global Investment Summit: sentiment, structure, and surprises– Regional vs. U.S. focus: where investors see opportunity– The Dantes Outlook framework: mapping the market and business cycles– Challenging assumptions about the Middle East’s global role– Key insights investors should be watchingVisit us at DantesOutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Abdulelah’s background and pathway to technical analysisMentorship, the CMT Association, and Riyadh chapter goalsGrowth opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the UAECyclicality, sector exposure, and local vs. global dynamicsUsing relative strength and market breadth in regional analysisAdjusting time frames and macro considerationsVision for growing a regional professional networkLooking ahead to the CMT conferences in Riyadh and DubaiVisit us at www.dantesoutlook.comEmail damanick@dantesoutlook to request a meeting. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Why copper/gold and silver/copper ratios may be sending different signals this cyclePositioning ahead of the FOMC meeting in rates and FXDuration strategy during rate-cutting cyclesActive vs. passive performance in the bond marketElena Zeng on Chinese equities:Hong Kong momentum rebound vs. mainland lagRelative strength of China vs. EM equitiesDomestic liquidity, share buybacks, and foreign inflowsWhy China remains a tactical allocation, not a core holdingVisit us at DantesOutlook.comEmail [email protected] to request a meeting The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Topics CoveredSetting the global context: the $7 trillion daily FX market and its driversThe advantages of technical analysis in high-liquidity marketsRule-based systems and algos: strategies for 24/5 tradingKey FX trading approaches: trend, mean reversion, breakouts, session-based, and news-drivenDubai’s financial rise: DIFC, regulation, and the time zone advantageThe role of the CMT Association and Women in Technical Analysis in shaping the future of financeUpcoming EventsSeptember 28 – CMT Riyadh Community Meeting: a premier forum for market professionals across Saudi Arabia and beyond.Register hereSeptember 30–October 2 – CMT Global Investment Summit in Dubai: an elite gathering of fund managers, strategists, and investors decoding cross-asset trends and innovations in global markets.Register hereWomen in TA dinnerVisit us at www.dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

U.S. Valuations: Deutsche Bank research shows that historically, high valuations have led to weaker 10-year returns, raising questions about long-term U.S. equity performanceAI and the Mag-7: The current rally is highly concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks, creating a potential disconnect between pricing and fundamentals.Global Equities & Currencies: State Street reports that the 9% year-to-date decline in the U.S. dollar has boosted international returns, with Europe benefiting mostSector Leadership in Europe: BlackRock highlights resilience in banks, aerospace & defense, luxury, and semiconductors, while remaining cautious on healthcareDiversification: AQR stresses the importance of liquid diversifiers, like trend-following strategies, in reducing risk and improving long-term returnsPortfolio Insights:Dantes Outlook Alpha Capture ETF Model Portfolio gained 2.33% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 30 bps.Key contributors: cyclical sectors, emerging markets, inflation beneficiaries (INFL), and Eurozone/U.S. bond exposure.Year-to-date results: Moderate +6.54%, Aggressive +32.67%, Conservative +9.45%Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com to learn more.Email [email protected] to request a meeting. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Rates & Fed Policy: Markets are overly optimistic on rate cuts; inflation remains sticky, keeping the Fed cautious (DeepMacro).Equity Positioning: Systematic funds are heavily tilted toward equities, with allocations at or near record highs (MenthorQ).China Equities: Narrowing gap between H-shares and A-shares signals opportunity; liquidity and household cash provide strong support (HSBC).Market Breadth: Short-term indicators are overbought, but long-term breadth remains healthy (Dantes Outlook).Fixed Income: Attractive yields unlikely to return to pre-pandemic lows; belly of the curve (5–6 year maturities) offers a balance of income and rate risk (Vanguard).Municipals & Credit: Municipal bonds and investment-grade credit stand out as high-quality, inexpensive options.Equities: Active managers struggle against the Magnificent Seven; indexing provides a strong foundation, while Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare offer selective momentum opportunities (Morningstar, Dantes Outlook).Takeaway: Stay disciplined, revisit bond allocations, and avoid overstretching for yield or risk. The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Market Breadth: NYSE advancers outpaced decliners 4-to-1, suggesting resilience beneath the equity rally (SentimenTrader).Macro Signals: Inflation remains domestically driven; Fed unlikely to cut quickly. U.S. dollar regains strength versus peers (DeepMacro).Dantes Outlook Positioning: Trimmed active tilts, maintaining preference for U.S. equities while adding emerging markets. Funded by profits in gold and inflation hedges. Launched tactical semiconductor strategy based on momentum signals.Bond Market Evolution: Portfolio trading volumes in U.S. corporate bonds surged 54% in H1 2025, boosting liquidity and efficiency (Barclays).Investor Behavior: Morningstar’s “Mind the Gap” shows investors underperform funds by ~1.2% annually due to timing mistakes.Forward-Looking Markets: Historical data shows equities often rebound after major payroll revisions, underscoring how markets anticipate economic shifts (Fidelity).Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Topics Covered:Portfolio construction in today’s macro climate — balancing risk, correlations, and tracking error.Credit market health — Morningstar DBRS and Proskauer data show improving leverage, coverage, and default rates.Bond market reset — Deutsche Bank’s historical context on the worst 5-year Treasury returns and forward expectations.Opportunities in core bonds — PIMCO’s view on yields, international duration, and diversification benefits.DeepMacro model positioning — long USD, contrarian equity overweight, and rates strategy.Trend-following under pressure — why CTAs are lagging in 2025.Emerging markets strategy — Victor Zhou on activeness, tracking error, and the under-researched alpha potential in EM small caps.Key Takeaways:Dollar correlations are a driver of our U.S. equity overweight.Credit fundamentals are stronger, with default rates falling.Bond valuations have reset, creating better entry points, but real returns may remain modest.Trend-following struggles highlight the need for multi-strategy systematic approaches.In emerging markets, higher activeness and small-cap allocations improve alpha opportunities.References:Morningstar DBRSProskauer Private Credit Default ReportDeutsche Bank Global Markets ResearchPIMCO Fixed Income OutlookDeepMacro Model PositioningState Street Emerging Markets Strategy Research The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

This week’s episode covers:U.S.–EU trade deal impact and the new 15% tariff baselineMargin debt surges—5th fastest rise since 1998 (source: Deutsche Bank)Fed and ECB hold steady, but tone remains cautiousBreadth weakening beneath the surface despite equity highsTrimming gold, watching silver/platinum and volatility signalsJuly portfolio performance + positioning adjustmentsWhat we’re watching: CTA trends, EMFX momentum, and central bank shiftsReferenced Sources:Deutsche Bank Macro Strategy NotesSentimenTrader Momentum/Breadth IndicatorsMRB Partners EM Currency ResearchDantes Outlook internal trend models & analyticsConnect with us to access portfolios:DantesOutlook.com/connect The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com