CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game

The podcast has moved to the Bleacher Bunch Network, which can be found wherever you find your podcasts. Links below to Bleacher Bunch and CubsPS+ on Patreon: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cubspsplus Bleacher Bunch Network: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleacher-bunch-network-a-chicago-cubs-podcast/id1462808218

We’ve talked about Shohei Ohtani and what the Dodgers are doing. We’ve talked about what the Cubs aren’t doing. We’ve talked about what the Cubs might look like if they actually do nothing. Here we are, stuck in Groundhog Day, waiting for news of the first big move. Why is the baseball offseason the way it is? Why don’t things move faster? This week I dig into those questions. Find CubsPS+ on the Bleacher Bunch Network: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleacher-bunch-network-a-chicago-cubs-podcast/id1462808218

A week after Shohei Ohtani came off the board, the Cubs still have not made a single major league transaction this offseason. A lot of rumored and potential paths to a successful offseason remain available, but in this episode, I dig into the current roster and what this season could look like if the Cubs do nothing. How many wins could this team win? How might they replace lost production from 2023?

It’s been a wild week of fake reports, erroneous reports made in good faith and a whole lot of rumors as the world waited for Shohei to sign. Now he’s made up his mind and will be staying in LA. I talk about his contract and the what deferred money means in terms of luxury tax hit and then get into the “so what?” Of it all. What does this mean for the Cubs? Where do they pivot next. Let’s dive in. UPDATE: Jon Becker corrected the calculations he had put out yesterday before I recorded. I have provided the updated link below. Nutshell - deferring $400M of Ohtani’s contract would take LA’s CBT hit to as low as $42-ish million per year, not the $60M per year I cited in the pod. Excellent Twitter thread about deferred comp in MLB from @jonbecker_ https://x.com/jonbecker_/status/1733855093462630748?s=61&t=1Aka_sJo8QXHplWFFqMVAg Great read on Collective Bargaining Tax (CBT) optimization (including explanation on deferred money) by @DrummeyDylan at Pitcher List https://t.co/r0wrSwMBoZ

It’s hot stove time, but the fire is just getting started, so it’s still a little chilly in here. Not much is happening yet, outside of a few moves here and there. All of the big guns are still on the board and everyone – pretty much the whole world – is waiting for Shohei Ohtani to make a decision. Do the Cubs have a shot? Could they actually land the biggest free agent in the history of baseball? Nobody knows, but it sure looks like they’re trying. Let’s see what we know about Ohtani and what other players the Cubs may be targeting. Starting January 1, this podcast will be exclusively posted to the Bleacher Bunch podcast feed and on my Patreon feed. Patreon supporters will always get episodes ad-free. https://cubspsplus.patreon.com

The Cubs have added a number of young players to the 40-man roster over the last week and today I was joined by friend of the pod, Greg Huss of Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck podcast. We talked about the guys the Cubs added, a variety of strategies for turning prospect depth into a winning big-league club and then dove into the first year of his BASH metric, which measures offensive production across levels of the minors in a way somewhat similar to wRC+. Greg Huss can be found across social media at @OutoftheVines and @cubsondeck. His writing can be found at North Side Bound

Jed Hoyer comes in off the top rope to open the offseason with the shocking hire of former Brewers manager Craig Counsell, setting up what could be a really exciting offseason. This week I’m joined by Cody Delmendo from the CHGO Cubs podcast and we discuss the Counsell hire, how he makes the Cubs better and what this all means for the offseason.

There’s a lot to talk about today – I get into the front office moves and rumors and what those might mean for the Cubs going forward. I also talk more about the various Kyle Hendricks rumors and how those might play into the Cubs’ roster construction for 2024. Let’s also talk through some hitting numbers and what the Cubs should target on the trade and free-agent markets.

Let’s talk about pitching - the Cubs had more quality pitching this year than they’ve had in 5+ years and they’re developing pitching better than they have since the early 2000s. How do they build on that in 2024? What do they need to do this offseason? Today I break down some of the Cubs’ pitching numbers and what was missing. Factoring in who is likely to return gives an idea what the Cubs need to target. The obvious answer is velocity and swing-and-miss stuff in the rotation and certainly more in the bullpen, but let’s dig deep into velocity, K rates, barrels, etc. and look at what the numbers tell us.

The playoffs are in full swing and we’re seeing former Cubs all over the place. The Cubs missed the post-season by 2 games. It was so close and yet so far away. The Cubs are obviously working to get back to the playoffs, but before the offseason team building begins, let’s take a look at this year’s field, the new playoff structure and what it all means going foreward.

With the Cubs missing the playoffs by a hair after fading to the finish, I want to talk about what happened this season to keep them out and talk about the idea of blame. What does blame mean? Who should carry it? What should happen next? There’s a lot to get into, so I’d love for you to join me!

NOTE: It’s a long episode. Worth listening to with opinions from a lot of smart Cubs people. I join for the last hour and get introduced at the 2 hr 20 minute mark….but it’s great from the jump. Kap is always entertaining to open and the rest of the voices are first rate and all worth following on their own. Join an All-Star Cast of the best brains in the baseball biz! Featuring! David Kaplan, Bleacher Nation’s Michael Cerami and Luis Medina, Fly the W’s Crawly, Cuppa Cubbie Blue’s Sara Sanchez, Cubs Insider’s Evan Altman, Swerski’s Alex Patt, CHGO’s Cody Delmendo, Comedians: Joe Kilgallon, Billy Devore, Eric Wielo and Zach Funk, Poet Sandra Marchetti, Cubs PS +’s Mike Waller and Cubs on Deck's Greg Huss. With the Son Ranto Show Crew, Danny Rockett, Michael Cotton and Infield Fly Girl.

After a devastating week with 3 close losses and several blown leads to the Atlanta Braves, the Cubs limp into Milwaukee behind Miami and currently out of a playoff spot. Can the Cubs find a way to get back into playoff position? It’s do-or-die time now. In Episode 54, I talk about missed opportunities and how the Cubs got here.

The Cubs are hanging on to a playoff spot and have a a huge last week with three games in Atlanta followed by three games in Milwaukee. Today, I’m joined by my friend and Braves fan, Lance Rafdal to talk about the Braves and look ahead to the playoffs.

It has not been the best or most enjoyable week of Cubs baseball. The Cubs’ position as the 2nd Wild Card team is gone and the Cubs are barely hanging on to a tie for the 3rd wild card, having lost 9 of their last 12. Can the Cubs hang on and get into the post season? Why are the Cubs struggling? In this episode I talk about what I see as the problems with the Cubs season, opine on David Ross as manager and on Jed Hoyer & the front office. Can the Cubs do this thing? Let’s find out!

CHGO’s Brendan Miller joined me this week for a great conversation about all things Cubs - Pete Crow Armstrong and his impact on the Cubs up-the-middle defense, as well as the state of Cubs pitching development with all the baseball nerd breakdown you’d expect from Brendan. As he put it, “the car is driving itself at this point” and we’re all just along for the ride as the Cubs sprint to the finish, hoping to lock up their first playoff bid in 3 years. In this episode, we talk about the debuts of PCA & Luke Little and Brendan breaks down a variety of pitchers, including Justin Steele, Jamison Taillon, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Cuas, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter, Jr., and others. Brendan (@brendan_cubs) does a weekly Sunday podcast with long-time co-host Corey Freedman (@corey_cubs) as part of the CHGO Cubs podcast. You can find CHGO’s Cubs content at https://allchgo.com and on Twitter/X @CHGO_Cubs

This week I’m thrilled to be joined by Bryan Smith, who provides prospect coverage for Bleacher Nation. Bryan and I talk about how the Cubs are handling September roster expansion and what to expect from Alexander Canario and Luke Little now that they’re up and have debuted. We also talk about a variety of other prospects like Jordan Wicks, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton, among others. Who else might the Cubs look at this month in a pennant race? Let’s find out.

It’s an off day today, but for a day off, there’s a lot going on. In this episode I talk about the Cubs ongoing surge, all the waiver activity today and the Cubs announced roster expansion for September. We’re going to get to see at least one really exciting young player. Want more? What more could you want than to watch a contending team as we head into September???

The Cubs are in the dog days right now – the bullpen is tired and the starting rotation is going through injuries and struggles, but the team continues to win baseball games. There are some big questions as the Cubs move forward towards September, but they’re moving up in the Wild Card race and staying on the Brewers’ heels in the division. What do the Cubs need to do to stay in the race and get over the hump? Let’s discuss. Are you ready? I’m ready. Here. We. Go.

All we asked for before the season was to play meaningful baseball after the trade deadline, and here the Cubs are. It’s all about the sense of urgency - fans feel it in ways they haven’t in years game by game, David Ross is showing more of it in his lineup decisions and Jed Hoyer is showing more of it in his roster construction. It’s winning time and this week I talk about that increasing sense of urgency and what it means as the Cubs continue to fight for a spot in the post-season.

This week, I talk about the Cubs decision to be buyers and what that means for this season and beyond. I get into the trades made themselves, talk about the last week of Cubs baseball and how the Cubs are looking for the post-season. With Jeimer Candelario once again a Cub, it’s a 53-game sprint to the post season – what are their chances? What does their run differential mean? Let’s discuss.

This is a busy episode. I open with my tribute to the legendary Pat Hughes, then talk about how the Cubs have been playing lately and what that means for the trade deadline. After walking through what I think the Cubs should do and might do at the deadline, I close out with a brief bit on what I saw on a trip to Myrtle Beach last weekend to see the Pelicans. There’s a lot to do and the Cardinals series starts in just about an hour and the Cubs need to do damage.

Welcome in to Episode 45 – the Billy Jurges episode of this podcast. This is the 2nd time Billy Jurges has been a part of these episodes – in Episode 11 “October 6: The Ghosts (and Goats) of Baseball Past” I talked about Billy Jurges missed the 1932 season (and World Series) after being shot by a Chicago showgirl – which may have played into both Babe Ruth’s famed Called Shot and been part of the inspiration for Roy Hobbs in The Natural. It was one of my favorite episodes to do, so if you haven’t checked it out, I recommend it. Since I last recorded, we got to see a series win in the Bronx, a thrilling Home Run Derby, Justin Steele pitch well in the All Star Game and the Cubs open the 2nd half in very “meh” fashion. This weekend against the Cardinals will go a long way towards determining whether the Cubs are buyers or sellers. For today, though, I have a very special guest – Greg Zumach from Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck podcast. He and I had a really enjoyable conversation about all things MLB Draft – we talk about the Cubs picks, overall draft strategy and how he approaches getting to know so many players and breaking it all down for his audience. It’s a look behind the curtain today, beyond which Cub draftees might contribute down the line.

I joined the Son Ranto show Thursday night to discuss the Cubs first half performance and the outlook going forward as they head toward the trade deadline. I was on for the first 2 segments and participated the most in the first segment. The Cubs are just beyond the mid-point in the 2023 Season. Do they have what it takes to make the playoffs? The Son Rant Show welcomes the best baseball brains in the biz. Join Cuppa Cubbie Blue's Sara Sanchez, Cubs PS+'s Mike Waller, CHGO's Cody Delmendo, Wrigleyville Nation's Jeremy Diemer, Swerski Sports Alex Patt, Pinwheels and Ivy's K Fidds, Comedians Joe Kilgallon, Billy Devore and Zach Funk, Mistaken Identity's Frank Walker, and Crawly from Fly the W.

Welcome to (appropriately) to Episode 44 - the Anthony Rizzo episode of this podcast. With the Cubs opening their last series before the break in the Bronx tonight, it seems the Cubs have just as many unanswered questions as they had heading into the season. In this episode, I talk about how the Cubs are competing, what matters in the last 20 games before the trade deadline and what options the Cubs have as the deadline looms. Where DOES “Next” start? So far, it hasn’t started here.

Coming off a bad loss where the Cubs played some inexplicably bad baseball, the Cubs are now no longer hot. They’ve lost 4 straight and still have a lot of questions heading into the last 10 games before the All Star break. This week, I talk about Thursday’s bad 3-1 loss to the Phillies, take a look at Jameson Taillon’s struggles and talk about whether it even makes sense for the Cubs to be sellers if things do really go south.

Happy Ryne Sandberg Day to all who celebrate! Cubs are across the pond, having won 10 of 12, to face the last place Cardinals. Cubs need some bangers so they can mash the Cardinals in this series. Oh, massive missed pun opportunities with Mash Mervis in Des Moines. In this episode I talk about how the Cubs have flipped their season and take a deeper look at Christopher Morel, Cody Bellinger and some of the emerging stars in the Cubs’ bullpen.

This week I’m joined by the voice of the Iowa Cubs, Alex Cohen. Alex and I talk about what seems to be a growing divide between AAA and the majors and how those players who live on the edges or the middle of it approach the game. Through that discussion we hit on a variety of Cubs and I-Cubs. Alex’s passion for the game shines in this one so enjoy! You can find Alex on I-Cubs broadcasts (including AM 940 in Des Moines), on Twitter @voiceofcohen2 and on his website, https://voiceofcohen.com.

Fresh off getting swept by the Angels, the Cubs limp to beautiful Oracle Park to take on the Giants. Nobody seems to have any answers as to why this team is so much worse than it really should be right now - Is it the manager? The lineups? Or is a team full of proven vets just not getting it done? Let’s discuss.

Welcome in to Episode 39 – making this the Andrew Chafin episode, because – man, we sure could use him in the pen right now! With the Cubs licking their wounds after a losing home stand – a losing home stand in spite of winning series against both the Mets and Rays – the topic this week is missed opportunities. We all knew the Cubs had a tough schedule in the first half and would have some rough stretches, but in order to survive those difficult road trips and top opponents, the Cubs needed to bank some wins against lesser teams….and they simply haven’t done that. In this episode, I look back at the Cubs record in both close games and in games where FanGraphs had them as a favorite to highlight the opportunities missed and then discuss why they continue to lose in the margins and why the series finale against Tampa was a microcosm of their entire season so far. Are you ready? I’m ready. Here. We. Go!

This week I cover a few topics impacting the Cubs right now. The episode opens with my thoughts on the return of Kyle Hendricks and then I get into the slowly (maybe too slowly) changing face of the Cubs bullpen. After that, the big topic - why do Cub fans hate Miles Mastrobuoni so much? I break down Mastrobuoni’s numbers and make a comp to a memorable Cub from 2015-2017 who had a similar start to his career.

Welcome in to Episode 37! The #37 makes this the Travis Wood episode! The Cubs opened the weekend by designating Eric Hosmer for assignment, a move we’ve all been talking about for a few weeks. Nico Hoerner made his return in Philadelphia and the Cubs were a mixed bag over the weekend – winning a blowout Friday, getting blown out Saturday and wasting another fantastic outing from Justin Steele today and – in the process – continuing to struggle with men on base and getting big outs from the bullpen. On the plus side, Christopher Morel is all the vibes and can’t be human at this point. I’ll get back into those issues next week, but today, I’m thrilled to be joined by Ben Lindbergh, longtime host of the Effectively Wild podcast from FanGraphs and co-author of two books, “The MVP Machine” and “The Only Rule is it has to Work”. Ben and I talk about player development and how things have changed since he and Travis Sawchik published The MVP Machine 4 years ago – changes in technology and process, what things were once advantages and are now table stakes and how players are empowered more than ever before thanks to all the data and measurables at their fingertips. Ben is always a great listen, so sit back and enjoy his unique perspective. Are you ready? I’m ready. Here. We. Go! Where to find Ben: Twitter: @BenLindbergh and @EWPod Effectively Wild Podcast (co-hosted with Meg Rowley of Fangraphs) Ben’s work at The Ringer The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists are Using Data to Build Better Players (co-authored with Travis Sawchik) The Only Rule is it has to Work (co-authored with Sam Miller)

The Cubs are surprisingly among the league leaders in run differentials, yet sit on this off day with an 18-19 record. In this episode I dig into run differential and how it plays into playoff chances. Tied in with run differential is the baseball idea of “luck” (no, not black cats & dark magic), so I talk about baseball luck and how the Cubs can make their own. When a team plays a lot of close games, the winning and losing comes in the margins, so what do the Cubs need to do to flip the script in close games? Give it a listen and let me know what you think.

The Cubs aren’t playing as well as they were the last time I sat down to have a conversation with y’all, so let this week’s episode be a nice distraction from all the concerns about what’s going on with the team on this road trip (1-5 heading into today’s finale against the Nationals). This week I was thrilled to talk baseball with Cubs baseball scientist Dr. Mike Sonne, a PhD with a lot of biomechanics expertise who the Cubs hired last October. We talk about the role of baseball science within the Cubs’ system and how things have gone in his first 6 months.

The Cubs continue to play good ball and are now beginning a 10-game stretch against the Marlins and Nationals, hopefully they can continue to win series. This week I look back at what the Cubs have been doing over the last week and talk about the roster changes made in the last couple of days and what those might mean going forward. I get into some players who have already shown some performance extremes and then I break down some catching metrics between Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart. Are you ready? I’m ready….Here! We! Go!

This week I’m thrilled to welcome back friend of the pod Greg Huss of Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck Podcast. Greg is always a great listen and, as always, he brought great energy and deep knowledge of Cubs prospects. We talk primarily about power - power bats and swing & miss power arms - that the Cubs have in the system ready for the big leagues and how those guys play into roster construction for a major league roster seen as light on power. When might we see Matt Mervis or Christopher Morel in Chicago? Can the Cubs use arms from Iowa’s power ‘pen to get more swing & miss at the major league level? Late in the episode Greg talks about his newly released offensive metric, BASH, which is designed to help compare offensive prospects across levels, while factoring in performance, age and park factors. You can find Greg at Northside Bound (Northsidebound.com), on Twitter @OutOfTheVines and the Cubs On Deck podcast can be found through your pod catcher of choice.

It’s been a really good stretch for the Cubs - series wins at home against Seattle and Texas before going to LA and winning their first series there in nine seasons. Today, the Cubs go for the sweep against an Oakland team going nowhere fast. What’s driving the Cubs? Surprisingly, it’s the offense to a greater degree than we expected. In this episode, I talk about what’s going right for the Cubs, but also talk about where the Cubs could get better, particularly first base. I dive into Hosmer’s start and what he’s giving the Cubs so far. This will be a prelude to a larger discussion of power bats and power arms and how those things play into the Cubs current roster construction when I talk to Greg Huss, writer for Northside Bound and host of the Cubs on Deck podcast later this week.

Thanks for bearing with me during a brief hiatus while our family moved. In this episode, I look at some interesting trends over the first 8 games of the season, including some interesting (and at times) detrimental roster construction choices and highlight some of the great early performances - I’m looking at you Stro & Steele! At the end, I talk through my prediction on the Cubs win totals this year.

Welcome in to Episode 30! The Stro Show at Wrigley on Opening Day is just a week away and the Cubs still have a lot of roster decisions to make. Let’s pick up where we left ff last week and dig in on some of the questions yet to be answered before the season starts - but first, I highlight the end of the World Baseball Classic (I mean, seriously, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout?!!??) and discuss some injury updates and what htey might mean as we head into April. Are you ready? I’m ready. Here! We! Go!

Who do you think should play third base? Who should the Cubs plug in RF until Seiya Suzuki returns? Who is the 5th starter going to be? This week, I walk through the options the Cubs have in some key positions and lay out my thoughts on how the Cubs will approach some of those decisions. Geek out with some talk about option years and the 40-man roster implications on this week’s podcast. I also banter about about the World Baseball Classic and highlight a few Chicago Cubs who are showing out in the tournament. Are you ready? I’m ready. Here! We! Go!

Did you try watching the KBO during the COVID shutdown? Are you excited about the WBC? This is your episode. I’m thrilled to welcome avid international baseball following @InfieldFlyGrl to talk about baseball around the globe and the WBC. Baseball is fun - and the whole world knows it. All things World Baseball Classic: https://www.mlb.com/world-baseball-classic International Baseball Streaming Guide: https://wordsabovereplacement.com/streaming-guide/

Welcome in to Episode 27! Spring is here! Well, sort of…in some places. With the Cubs heading into game action this weekend, it’s time to start thinking about what the Cubs will be this season. Seiya and Morel are huge, Bellinger took Smyly deep to left center today and Willson Contreras is getting under Cub fans’ skin already. Today I hit all that, talk about Happ & Hoerner contract extensions and spend some time looking into the newly released PECOTA projections and how the NL Central race is looking. Are you ready? I’m ready. Here. We. Go!

Let’s reflect on Dexter Fowler’s short, but really impactful time with the Cubs. He was a really valuable player offensively and defensively on both the 2015 and 2016 teams, probably no moment greater than his leadoff home run in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. This week, I talk about what Dexter did in Chicago and compare him to other short-term (3 seasons or less with the Cubs) additions the Cubs have made in the divisional era going back to 1969. Where do I rank Dexter? Tune in and let’s find out. UahzohcpMFjCxK4rTeTB

I’m cross-posting this episode of the Son Ranto Show after joining the crew for a guest appearance this week. Son Ranto is one of my favorite Cubs podcasts and Danny Rockett was very generous to bring me on. It’s always a great time and this episode was no exception. This episode reflects on the retirement of Dexter Fowler and where he stands among Cubs leadoff hitters over the past few decades. I join in the 2nd segment (at the 45:15 mark) to talk about mental skills after my last episode interviewing the Cubs’ David da Silva and in the end we get into some of my process. They wrap up the third segment discussing their good, bad and ugly Cubs uniforms. I highly recommend giving this podcast a listen if you haven’t. It’s the longest running Cubs podcast (and I’m probably the shortest). You can find them on YouTube (live at 8 pm Central most Thursdays) and all the major podcast services. You can also go to https://SonRanto.com. The podcast (@SonRantoShow) and the three hosts are active on social media: Danny Rockett: @dannyrockett and/or @SonRantoShow on most platforms Michael Cotton: Reddit.com/r/sonranto InfieldFlyGirl: @InfieldFlyGirl on most platforms

This week, I was joined by David da Silva, Mental Skills Coordinator for the Cubs. David talked me through the Cubs mental skills program and we talked about how he tries to give players the tools they need to handle so many situations that come up – the pressure of a big spot, the long mental grind of a season, and how to deal mentally with injuries. You can find David on Twitter @DaviddaSilva99, Instagram @ddasilva99 and on LinkedIn.

Welcome in to Episode 24! I’m jealous of all of you who were able to make it to the Cubs Convention last week, it looked like a really good time and I hope I can join y’all next year. Today, I’m going to talk about a few of my convention takeaways and then change it up a little by bringing in Lance Rafdal, a lifelong Braves fan, to talk about Dansby Swanson. If you enjoy my guest episodes, there will be several more in the coming weeks while we work through the rest of the offseason.

Welcome in to Episode 23 - the Ryne Sandberg episode here to liven up a dead week in January! The offseason really does seem like it’s starting to wind down - which is fine with me, I’m ready for spring training. In this episode, I’ll talk about the most recent addition — 1B Eric Hosmer — and dive a little deeper into defensive metrics now that it’s abundantly clear that the Cubs are lining up the pitching and defense game for 2023.

Welcome in to Episode 22! It’s been a crazy couple weeks since I last recorded – I’ve traveled across the country and halfway back, celebrated Chanukah and Christmas and watched the Cubs FINALLY land a big fish all while Carlos Correa agreed to terms with at least two teams and saw those deals fall apart. Jed’s plan is becoming more and more clear (whether it’s a good enough plan remains to be seen) and I talk about recent moves play into that plan. The bulk of this episode, though, will focus on on what I think were the Top 5 most impactful moves the Cubs made in 2022. As we look back one more time before stepping into 2023, what do you think were the biggest moves of the last year?

Well, we’re STILL waiting. This week, I talk about the stall, why star power matters and what paths are still available for the Cubs. We could be traveling right along Jed Hoyer’s preferred path or we might be watching live as Jed struggles to adjust to a rapidly changing free agent market. What kind of hopes remain for Cub fans as we head into the holidays? Let’s dive in.

It’s been quite a week for Cubs fans – the Cubs got out of the gates quick in the Winter Meetings with a couple early signings, but the week was mostly rumors, reports about reports and waiting. The waiting is definitely the hardest part. This week I talk about the waiting, why we’re all waiting and how I read the tea leaves on what has been a tense off season.