CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax

Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai dig into the latest macro data and benchmark today's landscape against some uncomfortable historical parallels. Drawing on three major economist surveys covering more than 100 forecasters, they also map out where there's consensus, where there's divergence, and what it all means for CRE performance and capital markets.Key moments:00:48 Stat of the day: Commercial real estate pricing through the 1970s02:29 70’s déjà vu06:31 Hot PPI inflation08:40 Fed holds rates13:33 Housing sales slide16:21 Wholesale inventories18:56 Economist surveys outlook26:19 Upcoming data and events27:02 Catch us at the ARES conferenceResources mentioned:Producer Price Index – February 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03182026.htmFOMC Rate Decision – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htmFOMC Summary of Economic Projections – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htmNew Residential Sales – January 2026 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.htmlAdvance Economic Indicators (Wholesale Inventories) – January 2026 - https://www.census.gov/wholesale/Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q1 2026 - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998

Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording. Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market. Key moments01:29 - Brian’s career journey07:00 - From Fed to Trimont09:09 - Office lending sentiment11:55 - Trimont data advantage14:11 - Stagflation and expenses18:20 - Capital markets inflection22:03 - Wall of maturities25:54 - Non-bank lending risks29:52 - 2026 themes by sector32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks34:36 - An industry wish for transparency Resources mentionedBrian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/Trimont - https://trimont.com/

The CRE transaction market posted its first annual property count increase since 2021, industrial dollar volume surged 54%, and office may finally be finding a floor. In this episode of CRE Exchange, hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry break down Q4 and full-year 2025 transaction data, pricing trends across major sectors and MSAs, and what the numbers say about where the market is heading. Featuring a special conversation with Phil Tily, Alex Jaffe, and Mike Amthor from Altus Group's advisory practice on valuation and performance trends across the ODCE Index. Key moments01:28 Key stat of the day and macro backdrop05:50 Q4 and full year transactions09:12 Velocity and pricing trends12:36 Subsector and deal size comparisons14:13 Geographic winners and losers19:15 Biggest surprises in 202521:48 Sector shockers: retail, industrial, office27:21 ODCE data and Q4 returns31:46 Apartments trends and outlook35:20 Industrial markets and SoCal repricing40:56 Office stabilization and green Shoots46:58 Retail resilience and mark-to-market Resources mentionedPhil Tily: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-tily-7b9a9027/Mike Amthor: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/Alex Jaffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-jaffe-mai-31425123/Q4 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions quarterly report: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/Altus' Q4 valuation and performance trends analysis of the NCREIF ODCE Index: https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/#featuredEmail us: [email protected]

Bank lending standards are easing, CRE financing competition is rising, and even office is seeing selective reengagement. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, share and discuss the latest SLOOS data, earnings insights from major banks and asset managers, county-level GDP data, consumer sentiment, and small business optimism. Featuring a special conversation with Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on the latest trends from Altus Group’s Debt Capital Market Survey.Key moments01:47 Stat of the Day: Multifamily property age03:09 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey insights07:48 ADP employment data analysis10:07 County-level GDP data breakdown16:19 Consumer and business sentiment reports20:58 Earnings season highlights27:55 CRE Debt Capital Market Survey results with Andrew Pabon47:02 Upcoming Data Releases and AnnouncementsResources mentionedReonomy: https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/reonomy/ Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202601.htm ADP Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com BEA County-Level GDP & Personal Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gross-domestic-product-county-and-personal-income-county-2024 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-above-52-year-average/ Altus Debt Capital Market Survey: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/ Altus Connect: https://www.altusgroup.com/connect/

What does the CRE credit landscape really look like heading into 2026? Cole Perry is joined by Andy Boettcher, Head of Research at Trepp, to pull back the curtain on bank lending behavior, refinancing risk, extensions, and why fears around the “maturity wall” may be overstated. Drawing on decades of experience from the Federal Reserve to today’s lending data, Andy offers a seasoned, data-driven outlook on where CRE credit is stabilizing, and where it’s still sorting itself out. Key Moments:01:53 Andy’s Background and career journey07:06 From the Fed to Trepp09:53 Macro and CRE market analysis16:34 Bank lending vs. CMBS market25:53 2026 forecast and predictions27:45 Final thoughts and industry wishes Resources Mentioned:Andy Boettcher - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aboettcher/  Trepp - https://www.trepp.com/  Federal Reserve H.8 Report – Weekly Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm  Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/  Atlanta Fed GDPNow - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow  New York Fed Staff Nowcast - https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast   What CREFC Miami revealed about CRE debt markets in 2026 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/what-crefc-miami-revealed-about-cre-debt-markets-in-2026Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

We examine the economic data and policy developments setting the tone for the US commercial real estate market in early 2026.  Discussing what recent labor reports, GDP estimates, and financing trends suggest about growth, risk, and capital markets conditions heading into the year. The conversation also turns to housing policy, including new local initiatives and national proposals, and how these policy signals could influence supply, affordability, and investment strategy across CRE sectors. Key Moments:00:58 Key statistics and market trends03:26 Economic data and labor market insights07:56 GDP and service sector analysis12:18 Housing market update15:13 Consumer data and AI impact19:03 Housing policy and national proposals27:34 Upcoming events and announcements Resources Mentioned:Debt Capital Market Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/Altus Connect Conference - https://events.altusgroup.com/event/altus-connect-2026/summaryJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ADP National Employment Report - https://adpemploymentreport.com/BLS Employment Situation / December Jobs Report - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htmAtlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowS&P Global US Services PMI - https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/ISM Services PMI - https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-reports/Consumer Credit (G19) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

The biggest risk in multifamily right now isn’t oversupply, it’s misunderstanding the data. Jay Parsons joins CRE Exchange to discuss where public housing datasets fall short, why headline narratives around supply, rents, and defaults spread so quickly, and how investors should interpret conflicting signals as the market moves into its next phase. Key moments01:09 Jay Parsons' background and career02:26 Evolving perspectives in rental housing05:17 Supply and demand dynamics in multifamily housing08:40 Demographic trends and housing preferences11:36 Cost pressures and operational challenges15:09 Interest rates and multifamily market impact20:22 Affordability and nuances in rental housing23:27 Historical context of housing affordability25:00 Potential solutions to housing affordability26:14 The role of GSEs in the housing market28:51 Public vs. private data in housing37:00 Misconceptions and myths in housing40:50 Challenges in data collection and market segments Resources mentionedJay Parsons: https://jayparsons.com/The Rent Roll: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-rent-roll-with-jay-parsons/id1770512765 Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Newmark’s President of Capital Markets, North America, Chad Lavender, breaks down the sector-by-sector changes that are redefining today’s capital markets. From the surge in data center demand to senior housing’s NOI outperformance and the resurgence of banks in lending, Chad share a well-defined read on where CRE capital is actually flowing, and why it matters heading into 2026. Key Moments:01:34 Chad Lavender's career journey05:08 Overview of Newmark Capital Markets07:35 Current trends in US CRE capital markets16:40 Deep dive into alternative sectors20:26 Healthcare and senior housing insights25:19 Data centers and life sciences31:39 Medical office, SFR, and BTR36:35 Alternatives on the move and market structures Resources Mentioned:Chad Lavender: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chad-lavender-03551bb/Newmark: https://www.nmrk.com/services/investor-solutions/capital-marketsEmail us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

The latest wave of delayed government data is finally in, and it’s helping the CRE community reestablish a clearer view of the economy heading into 2026. Join Omar and Cole as they interpret new banking, retail, PPI, and sentiment indicators, translating them into implications for capital availability, demand, and development pipelines. Key Moments:01:12 Quarterly Banking Profile insights05:49 Commercial real estate lending trends10:36 Retail sales and economic indicators13:02 Producer Price Index analysis15:07 Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlights22:42 Consumer Confidence and GDP Nowcast28:11 Upcoming data releases and final thoughts Resources Mentioned:FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile - https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profileUS Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index - https://www.bls.gov/pPI/US Census Bureau Advance Retail Trade Report - https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.htmlFederal Reserve Beige Book - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htmThe Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/index.cfmGDP Now - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowUS Commercial Real Estate Transaction Analysis – Q3 2025 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/us-commercial-real-estate-transaction-analysis-q3-2025Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property 

Our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, unpack an unexpectedly strong Q3 2025, one that defied seasonal norms and signaled potential momentum building across US commercial real estate. They break down what drove transaction growth, why large deals may have returned, and how pricing trends varied across sectors and major metros. Tune into this data-rich recap for valuable context heading into year-end.Key Moments:00:50 Overview of Q3 2025 and market environment01:28 Macroeconomic trends and Federal Reserve actions04:44 Credit and equity market performance09:13 US CRE investment and transaction market in Q311:54 Detailed analysis of CRE pricing and pacing trends20:20 Geographic differences in CRE market performance25:46 Surprising trends and insights from Q3 dataResources Mentioned:Q3 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions Quarterly report - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Every quarter, we dig into dozens of CRE earnings calls, tuning in, reading the releases, and looking for what really stands out. This time, we’re taking a different approach. Instead of focusing on individual companies, we’re pulling out the biggest themes across lenders, REITs, and brokers, from credit thawing to where capital is flowing next in 2026.Key Moments:01:51 Lenders' insights and trends06:41 Retail REIT earnings highlights11:51 Office sector analysis18:18 Industrial sector developments26:30 Multifamily sector review31:15 Brokerages and asset managers outlook41:13 Overarching takeawaysResources Mentioned:Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Legendary New York broker Bob Knakal shares lessons from more than four decades shaping the city’s investment landscape. He discusses the founding of Massey Knakal, the power of specialization, and how zoning and policy continue to define opportunity. Knakal also explains why he’s integrating AI and data analysis into his brokerage, and why, despite political headwinds, he still believes you should never bet against New York.  Key Moments:01:01 Meet Bob Knakal03:24 The early days of Massey Knakal04:50 Lessons learned and keys to success08:14 The importance of market expertise11:26 Founding BK Real Estate Advisors13:14 Specialization and market changes17:37 AI and technology in real estate24:15 The unique challenges of the New York market26:20 Current market cycles and trends29:57 Impact of political changes on housing32:42 Proposed solutions for housing issues38:35 Future of New York real estate Resources Mentioned:Bob Knakal - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobknakal/BKREA - https://www.bkrea.com/485-x Program - https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/services-and-information/tax-incentives-485-x.pageMajor Capital Improvement program - https://www.nyc.gov/site/finance/property/landlords-mci.pageIndividual Apartment Improvement program - https://hcr.ny.gov/apartment-iai-and-building-mci-improvementsEmail us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

What if the economy could sing? The CRE Exchange team explores what the Fed’s Beige Book, homebuilder sentiment, and recent banking data reveal about the broader economy, and how those trends ripple through commercial real estate. Our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, then turn to Peter Norman, Altus Group’s VP and Economic Strategist, for a deep dive into Canadian economic and CRE trends. Key Moments:01:34 Diving into the Fed Beige Book02:21 Labor market and employment trends03:30 Consumer spending and manufacturing Insights07:25 Home Builder Confidence Index10:43 Large Bank Credit Card and Mortgage Report13:57 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey16:31 Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey20:52 Canadian CRE trends with Peter Norman43:19 Upcoming eventsResources Mentioned:Peter Norman – https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-norman-20637043/2025 Canada State of the Market webinar – https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/canada-state-of-the-market/Federal Reserve Beige Book - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htmNAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index - https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-indexISM Manufacturing PMI - https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/september/Philadelphia Fed Large Bank Credit Card and Mortgage Data - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/large-bank-credit-card-and-mortgage-dataPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regionaleconomy/manufacturing/business-outlook-surveyPhiladelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regionaleconomy/nonmanufacturing/business-outlook-surveyEmail us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Even with the federal data slowdown, there are still alternative indicators that give us a view into what’s happening in the US economy and commercial real estate. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, lean on data from private providers and trade organizations to uncover what’s happening across consumers, small businesses, labor, and financial markets and what it all means for CRE. They’re joined by Andrew Pabon from Altus Group’s Valuation Advisory team to share insights on the CRE debt space. Key Moments:01:31 Labor market indicators05:35 Consumer data insights13:21 Financial market conditions and business data17:01 Small business economic trends20:51 CRE credit trends and debt market insights28:41 Interview with Andrew Pabon on the US CRE debt landscape41:24 Upcoming economic data releases Resources Mentioned:Andrew Pabon - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-pabon-15a6976/Altus Group CRE Debt Capital Markets Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/Alternative version of Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) - https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/an-alternative-version-of-the-kc-fed-lmci-suggests-little-change-in-the-labor-market-in-september/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit Report - https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations - https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index - https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-dataNFIB Small Business Economic Trends report - https://www.nfib-sbet.org/MainPage.htmlEmail us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Retail’s comeback isn’t new news, but its investment potential is still underestimated. In this episode, RockStep Capital’s President, Andy Weiner, joins Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry to shed light on why the most rational capital in CRE is rotating toward shopping centers and “hometown” markets.From positive leverage dynamics to the structural limits on new supply, Andy explains how disciplined operators are capturing double-digit yields while strengthening the communities they invest in. For investors, developers, and lenders, it’s a revealing look at where the next durable returns may come from. Key Moments:01:34 Meet Andy Wiener of Rock Step Capital03:38 The birth of Rock Step Capital05:21 Retail strategy and store metrics07:29 Improving communities through retail10:39 The Rock Steps: Company culture and values16:51 Evolution of Rock Step Capital20:52 Hometown focus and investment strategy22:21 Community involvement and local partnerships24:55 Investment strategies and fund structure27:00 Retail Renaissance and e-commerce integration30:24 Supply and demand dynamics in retail41:38 Public-private partnerships and redevelopment45:37 Exit strategies and market insights46:44 Chick-fil-A fandom and personal insights Resources Mentioned:Andy Weiner - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andy-weiner/RockStep Capital - https://rockstep.com/The RockStep way - https://rockstep.com/company/rockstep-wayEmail us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

From a 20.5% surge in new home sales and persistent affordability challenges in the existing market, to rising inflation, consumer sentiment drops, and labor market paradoxes, our hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry explore how these factors are influencing CRE demand and investment strategy.Also, special guest Dan Kudrik, Senior Director at Altus, adds his perspective on the human edge in real estate, and highlights how valuation, residual values, and transparency are evolving in the US market.Key moments01:19 Latest Housing Market Data06:29 Consumer spending and inflation insights15:07 GDP and corporate profits analysis18:47 Labor market trends21:59 Special Guest: Dan Kudrik on human capital, valuations, and residual valuesResources mentionedNew Home Sales: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html Existing home sales: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales PCE: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index GDP: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ JOLTS: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ Dan Kudrik: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielkudrik/ Email us: [email protected] Thanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Industrial real estate is transforming, and fast. Aasif Bade, founder and CEO of Ambrose, shares his journey, his firm’s conviction for modern warehouses, and why staying ahead of technology and global supply chain shifts is crucial. From outdated infrastructure to AI-driven innovation, Bade highlights what investors and developers need to know to navigate the industrial sector’s next chapter.Key Moments:01:21 Guest introduction: Aasif Bade01:54 Founding Ambrose: A journey04:53 People-first philosophy05:49 Ambrose's core investment strategy07:55 Pivot to industrial focus10:39 Fundraising and investor insights15:35 Current industrial market trends and challenges29:24 Technological advancements in warehousing32:25 Future trends and reshoringResources Mentioned: Ambrose: https://ambrosepg.com/Aasif Bade: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aasif-bade-a3b1851a4/Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property