CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax

Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai dig into the latest macro data and benchmark today's landscape against some uncomfortable historical parallels. Drawing on three major economist surveys covering more than 100 forecasters, they also map out where there's consensus, where there's divergence, and what it all means for CRE performance and capital markets.Key moments:00:48 Stat of the day: Commercial real estate pricing through the 1970s02:29 70’s déjà vu06:31 Hot PPI inflation08:40 Fed holds rates13:33 Housing sales slide16:21 Wholesale inventories18:56 Economist surveys outlook26:19 Upcoming data and events27:02 Catch us at the ARES conferenceResources mentioned:Producer Price Index – February 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03182026.htmFOMC Rate Decision – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htmFOMC Summary of Economic Projections – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htmNew Residential Sales – January 2026 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.htmlAdvance Economic Indicators (Wholesale Inventories) – January 2026 - https://www.census.gov/wholesale/Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q1 2026 - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998

Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording. Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market. Key moments01:29 - Brian’s career journey07:00 - From Fed to Trimont09:09 - Office lending sentiment11:55 - Trimont data advantage14:11 - Stagflation and expenses18:20 - Capital markets inflection22:03 - Wall of maturities25:54 - Non-bank lending risks29:52 - 2026 themes by sector32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks34:36 - An industry wish for transparency Resources mentionedBrian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/Trimont - https://trimont.com/

The CRE transaction market posted its first annual property count increase since 2021, industrial dollar volume surged 54%, and office may finally be finding a floor. In this episode of CRE Exchange, hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry break down Q4 and full-year 2025 transaction data, pricing trends across major sectors and MSAs, and what the numbers say about where the market is heading. Featuring a special conversation with Phil Tily, Alex Jaffe, and Mike Amthor from Altus Group's advisory practice on valuation and performance trends across the ODCE Index. Key moments01:28 Key stat of the day and macro backdrop05:50 Q4 and full year transactions09:12 Velocity and pricing trends12:36 Subsector and deal size comparisons14:13 Geographic winners and losers19:15 Biggest surprises in 202521:48 Sector shockers: retail, industrial, office27:21 ODCE data and Q4 returns31:46 Apartments trends and outlook35:20 Industrial markets and SoCal repricing40:56 Office stabilization and green Shoots46:58 Retail resilience and mark-to-market Resources mentionedPhil Tily: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-tily-7b9a9027/Mike Amthor: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/Alex Jaffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-jaffe-mai-31425123/Q4 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions quarterly report: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/Altus' Q4 valuation and performance trends analysis of the NCREIF ODCE Index: https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/#featuredEmail us: [email protected]

Bank lending standards are easing, CRE financing competition is rising, and even office is seeing selective reengagement. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, share and discuss the latest SLOOS data, earnings insights from major banks and asset managers, county-level GDP data, consumer sentiment, and small business optimism. Featuring a special conversation with Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on the latest trends from Altus Group’s Debt Capital Market Survey.Key moments01:47 Stat of the Day: Multifamily property age03:09 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey insights07:48 ADP employment data analysis10:07 County-level GDP data breakdown16:19 Consumer and business sentiment reports20:58 Earnings season highlights27:55 CRE Debt Capital Market Survey results with Andrew Pabon47:02 Upcoming Data Releases and AnnouncementsResources mentionedReonomy: https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/reonomy/ Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202601.htm ADP Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com BEA County-Level GDP & Personal Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gross-domestic-product-county-and-personal-income-county-2024 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-above-52-year-average/ Altus Debt Capital Market Survey: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/ Altus Connect: https://www.altusgroup.com/connect/

What does the CRE credit landscape really look like heading into 2026? Cole Perry is joined by Andy Boettcher, Head of Research at Trepp, to pull back the curtain on bank lending behavior, refinancing risk, extensions, and why fears around the “maturity wall” may be overstated. Drawing on decades of experience from the Federal Reserve to today’s lending data, Andy offers a seasoned, data-driven outlook on where CRE credit is stabilizing, and where it’s still sorting itself out. Key Moments:01:53 Andy’s Background and career journey07:06 From the Fed to Trepp09:53 Macro and CRE market analysis16:34 Bank lending vs. CMBS market25:53 2026 forecast and predictions27:45 Final thoughts and industry wishes Resources Mentioned:Andy Boettcher - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aboettcher/  Trepp - https://www.trepp.com/  Federal Reserve H.8 Report – Weekly Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm  Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/  Atlanta Fed GDPNow - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow  New York Fed Staff Nowcast - https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast   What CREFC Miami revealed about CRE debt markets in 2026 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/what-crefc-miami-revealed-about-cre-debt-markets-in-2026Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

We examine the economic data and policy developments setting the tone for the US commercial real estate market in early 2026.  Discussing what recent labor reports, GDP estimates, and financing trends suggest about growth, risk, and capital markets conditions heading into the year. The conversation also turns to housing policy, including new local initiatives and national proposals, and how these policy signals could influence supply, affordability, and investment strategy across CRE sectors. Key Moments:00:58 Key statistics and market trends03:26 Economic data and labor market insights07:56 GDP and service sector analysis12:18 Housing market update15:13 Consumer data and AI impact19:03 Housing policy and national proposals27:34 Upcoming events and announcements Resources Mentioned:Debt Capital Market Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/Altus Connect Conference - https://events.altusgroup.com/event/altus-connect-2026/summaryJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ADP National Employment Report - https://adpemploymentreport.com/BLS Employment Situation / December Jobs Report - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htmAtlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowS&P Global US Services PMI - https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/ISM Services PMI - https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-reports/Consumer Credit (G19) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

The biggest risk in multifamily right now isn’t oversupply, it’s misunderstanding the data. Jay Parsons joins CRE Exchange to discuss where public housing datasets fall short, why headline narratives around supply, rents, and defaults spread so quickly, and how investors should interpret conflicting signals as the market moves into its next phase. Key moments01:09 Jay Parsons' background and career02:26 Evolving perspectives in rental housing05:17 Supply and demand dynamics in multifamily housing08:40 Demographic trends and housing preferences11:36 Cost pressures and operational challenges15:09 Interest rates and multifamily market impact20:22 Affordability and nuances in rental housing23:27 Historical context of housing affordability25:00 Potential solutions to housing affordability26:14 The role of GSEs in the housing market28:51 Public vs. private data in housing37:00 Misconceptions and myths in housing40:50 Challenges in data collection and market segments Resources mentionedJay Parsons: https://jayparsons.com/The Rent Roll: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-rent-roll-with-jay-parsons/id1770512765 Email us: [email protected] for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property