China in the World

Over the past few years, Europe and the United States have each approached China’s rise differently. Washington has moved to reduce its economic reliance on Beijing while castigating its increasingly assertive global stance. Brussels, on the other hand, has tried to insulate its business ties with China from its concerns about Chinese policies and ambitions. Europe and China jointly proposed the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), while German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron strived to keep the continent’s relations with Beijing on solid footing. Recently, however, it appears as though Europe has shifted course to align elements of its China strategy more closely with those of the United States. The CAI has been shelved, and France and Germany have announced plans to play a larger role in the South China Sea disputes. How will Europe manage its relationship with Beijing going forward? And how should Europe deal with worsening U.S.-China relations? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, and Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, on the trajectory of U.S.-EU-China relations. This panel is the fifth of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2020-2021 and is also available to be watched online.

Conflict and instability in the Middle East show no signs of abating. Recent jousting between Israeli and Palestinian forces, the ongoing war in Yemen, and continued Saudi Arabia-Iran friction threaten to further destabilize the region. Though President Biden is attempting to restore coherence in the U.S. approach to the Middle East, his administration remains focused on responding to the pandemic domestically and on countering China in the international arena. Beijing, for its part, appears intent on playing a larger role in Middle Eastern affairs. It continues to foster stronger ties with regional countries through its Belt and Road Initiative and bilateral cooperation agreements, such as the twenty-five-year investment deal with Iran. How will China’s growing influence in the region affect the interests of the United States and other actors?During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program, and He Wenping, a professor at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This panel is the fourth of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2020-2021 and is also available to be watched online.

The Biden administration has an opportunity to recalibrate U.S. China policy to better reflect current realities. Has the administration been effective in laying the groundwork for strategic competition with China? How can Washington maintain a competitive relationship with Beijing while minimizing the risk of conflict? What did the U.S.-China Anchorage summit signal about the trajectory of U.S.-China relations? On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and Polaris-Live, Paul Haenle joined Sarwar Kashmeri to discuss U.S.-China relations 100 days into the Biden administration. The discussion was hosted by Polaris-Live, in conjunction with the Foreign Policy Association of New York, and can be viewed online.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ59Nf_inhA&ab_channel=SarwarKashmeri

While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has grown in its stead. On the heels of the contentious U.S.-China Alaska summit, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met in Guilin to discuss bilateral cooperation on a range of issues and even published a joint statement promoting a shared vision for global governance. However, it is unclear to what extent Russian and Chinese interests will continue to converge. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will Russia manage the relationship in a way that concurrently maintains cooperation with China and protects its own national interests? Will China continue to view Russia as a security and economic partner? And how does the United States view and approach strong China-Russia ties?During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Andrew Weiss, James Family Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Guan Guihai, associate professor at and executive vice president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, and Vita Spivak, analyst at Control Risks, a global consulting firm, on recent developments in China-Russia relations and their implications for the United States. This panel was hosted as the third of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2020-2021 and is also available to be watched online.

As President Biden wraps up his first 100 days in office, there remain significant questions surrounding the future of U.S.-China ties. How has the bilateral relationship changed? Will the Biden administration maintain the Trump administration’s policy of strategic competition? How has Beijing responded so far? On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and AmCham Shanghai’s China Voices podcast, Paul Haenle joined Kate Magill to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations after Biden’s first 100 days. For more in-depth analysis on Biden’s 100 days, be sure to check out Haenle’s recently published piece “Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition.” Link: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/04/27/setting-table-for-u.s.-china-strategic-competition-pub-84378

As the U.S.-China relationship becomes more competitive, how should the Biden administration approach ties with Beijing? What concepts should guide Washington’s China policy? In part two of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Ali Wyne, senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s Global Macro practice, about four principles the administration should follow to formulate a sustainable U.S. strategy toward China.

As the U.S.-China relationship becomes more competitive, how should the Biden administration approach ties with Beijing? What concepts should guide Washington’s China policy? In part one of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Ali Wyne, senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro practice, about four principles the administration should follow to formulate a sustainable U.S. strategy toward China.

Last year’s Mamallapuram summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested the historically tense China-India relationship was warming considerably. 2020, however, has been a markedly difficult year for the two countries. The ongoing Himalayan border conflict has plunged bilateral ties into crisis, and New Delhi has taken steps to limit Chinese investment into India and banned hundreds of Chinese mobile applications. While the border situation has stabilized over the past couple months, the future of China-India relations remains uncertain. What has driven the relationship’s deterioration, and is there any chance the two countries can get back on track? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Han Hua, associate professor at Peking University, about the trajectory of China-India ties and the prospect for improved relations between Asia’s two largest countries.

While the recent election of Joe Biden likely signals a raft of domestic political changes, its impact on U.S.-China relations remains unclear. The Trump administration has remolded the relationship, which is now defined by confrontations over economic practices, emerging technologies, and security. There is also growing bipartisan support for pursuing a tougher approach to China, and the Justice, State, and Defense departments are increasingly prioritizing new initiatives to push back on Beijing. Will Biden maintain the confrontational tone and policies of his predecessor? Or will he devise an entirely different posture toward Beijing? The answers to these questions will not only have critical consequences for the two countries in question, but for the broader international community as well. During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, on how the Biden administration might approach China, as well as how Beijing is gearing up for the new U.S. president.

President-elect Joe Biden will enter the White House with challenging domestic and foreign policy agendas. Where does China rank on the Biden administration’s priority list? How is Beijing likely to respond to Biden’s election, and what are the implications for U.S. policy in the Asia-Pacific? On this collaborative episode of the China in the World podcast and the Carnegie Endowment’s The World Unpacked podcast, Paul Haenle joined Laura Lucas Magnuson, Carnegie's vice president for communications and strategy, to discuss the future of U.S.-China relations.

The result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will directly impact how the United States, China, and Russia approach issues on the Korean Peninsula. How would a second Trump or first Biden administration deal with North Korea? How do policymakers in Beijing and Moscow evaluate their relations with Pyongyang? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Carnegie experts Alexander Gabuev and Tong Zhao about the outlook for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the role of the United States, China, and Russia.

Why has the coronavirus crisis evolved into a contest of systems between the United States and China? What is driving China’s “wolf warriors?” Can Washington and Beijing construct more effective official dialogue mechanisms to address bilateral problems? On this episode, Paul Haenle and Zha Daojiong, professor of international political economy at Peking University, have a wide-ranging discussion on U.S.-China relations. Haenle and Zha analyze the many factors driving a downward spiral in U.S.-China relations and the outlook for bilateral ties ahead of the U.S. presidential election. They end the discussion reflecting on steps that both Washington and Beijing should take to pull the relationship back from the brink.

U.S.-China relations are more adversarial than at any time in decades. The risk of confrontation or conflict has significantly increased, and domestic politics in both countries have exacerbated tensions. What role does ideology play in the ongoing deterioration of the relationship, and how will it impact future bilateral ties? In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Jie Dalei, associate professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, to discuss the role of ideology in the U.S.-China relationship and its impact on consequential bilateral issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and COVID-19.

On June 15, a month-long border standoff between Chinese and Indian forces escalated into a bloody conflict. A week later, former National Security Advisor John Bolton released his tell-all book revealing troubling positions taken by President Trump on China. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Chen Dingding, professor of international relations at Jinan University and founding director of the Intellisia Institute, to better understand how these developments are being viewed in China and analyze their implications for the U.S.-China relationship and upcoming presidential elections.

As nations confront the pandemic, rumors of Kim Jung-un’s death and a flurry of North Korean missile tests injected even more uncertainty in the international landscape. How do views in Washington, Seoul, and Beijing differ or align on North Korea? What are the prospects for the resumption of diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang? And how do tensions on the Korean Peninsula affect Northeast Asia more broadly? Paul Haenle spoke with other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a live recording of the China in the World podcast, where they discuss the outlook for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia Pacific.

Paul Haenle is hosting a special live episode of the China in the World Podcast this Friday, May 15, at 9 PM EST. Join Paul and other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a discussion on the outlook for denuclearization efforts on the Korean peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific.A link to the event can be found here: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/15/china-in-world-interactive-podcast-coronavirus-and-korean-peninsula-event-7328

China is facing growing international scrutiny due to its initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. Countries are increasingly questioning the motives underlying Beijing’s recent international aid efforts, and there is growing concern over developments in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Hong Kong. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, to better understand China’s perspective on recent pushback against Beijing, the implications of regional security developments, and China’s role in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

The coronavirus outbreak has highlighted the many issues in the U.S.–China relationship. Why can’t Washington and Beijing better coordinate a response to the pandemic, replicating their cooperative efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and 2014 Ebola outbreak? Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the dynamics preventing bilateral cooperation and the implications for a post-coronavirus world.

The U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the expiration of the New START treaty in 2021 threaten to derail decades-long efforts to maintain an effective global arms control regime. In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, about the deterioration of global arms control institutions and its effects on U.S.-China relations and regional nonproliferation efforts to contain North Korea and Iran's nuclear ambitions.Weitz argued that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty stemmed from Russia’s repeated violations of the agreement and had little to do with China. Weitz said, however, that Beijing must be included in any new negotiations despite the difficulties of implementing trilateral arms control agreements. Furthermore, Weitz highlighted Beijing’s crucial role in either resuscitating the crumbling Iran nuclear agreement or negotiating a new one. On North Korea, Weitz said a lack of forward momentum in diplomacy could lead to increased tensions with Pyongyang. Though measured sanctions relief might be necessary to prevent a return to the brinksmanship of 2017, Weitz cautioned against any such actions that do not include safeguards that prevent Pyongyang from reneging on its commitments.

Recent speeches by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated the Trump administration’s China-related grievances, yet they also revealed a new openness to engagement with China. Paul Haenle spoke with Michael Swaine, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how a more thoughtful approach to the bilateral relationship might look, as well as what recent changes in the Trump administration’s rhetoric about Beijing reveal. Swaine said Beijing’s transformation into a more ideological, party-driven, assertive, and capable power has raised questions in the United States over the efficacy of engagement. The Trump administration, however, has been too simplistic in its assessment of China and presented a one-dimensional “cartoonish” picture of Beijing. In doing so, it has failed to articulate a nuanced approach that addresses the real challenges China pose. Recent polls highlight that most Americans still prefer positive relations with Beijing but are concerned about China’s more assertive behavior at home and abroad. Different definitions of human rights, among other issues, limit the possibility of future cooperation. However, Swaine argued recent speeches by senior Trump administration officials may indicate a new attitude toward Beijing–one that does not completely reject engagement. Swaine argued this shift in tone is due to the administration’s realization that American allies and partners have serious misgivings about its zero-sum view of its relationship with China. Swaine cautioned, however, that U.S.-China relations are unlikely to improve substantially in the near future, especially if Beijing continues to be unwilling to take greater responsibility to address growing international concern surrounding its rise.

The U.S. strike on Qasem Soleimani took the world by surprise and has enormous implications for U.S. relations not only with Iran, but also with the rest of the Middle East and the international community. How have news of the attack and other related developments been received in China? Just days after the January 3rd strike, Paul Haenle spoke with Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University, to discuss China’s view on the killing of Soleimani and developments since.

Is the current downturn in U.S.-China relations different from anything the two countries have experienced before? Paul Haenle sat down with Daniel Russel, vice president for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute and former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, to reflect on why bilateral relations have deteriorated and what each country can do to right the ship, as well as expectations for diplomacy on the Korean peninsula in 2020.Russel said the ongoing downturn in U.S.-China ties is different from past pendulum swings and that there is a real possibility the two countries could enter a downward spiral that would be difficult to reverse. He attributed part of the deterioration to China’s growing assertiveness and exploitative economic practices, many of which have provoked the United States, as well as other countries, to push back. Russel also highlighted the Trump administration’s abandonment of a multilateral, deliberate, and solutions-oriented approach to foreign policy. The administration has taken a “wrecking ball” to China policy solely to halt Beijing's rise and express American grievances, Russel said. Escaping this negative spiral will require good-faith actions from both countries. Beijing needs to recalibrate its feedback mechanisms, which have prevented it from understanding how other countries perceive its actions, and should narrow the “say-do” gap that has eroded China’s credibility in the United States and around the world. Along with revising its wrecking-ball approach, the Trump administration needs to resist the temptation to adopt illiberal tactics, such as restricting Chinese investment and limiting people-to-people exchanges. On North Korea, Trump has humiliated American allies, ignored Pyongyang's violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, and ceded important leverage to Kim Jong-un, Russel said. Put simply, Kim has demonstrated he has a strategy while Trump has demonstrated he does not.

Shortly before the United States and China announced that they had reached a “Phase One” trade deal, Paul Haenle sat down with Andy Rothman, principal advisor at the investment firm Matthews Asia and former head of macroeconomics and domestic policy at the U.S. embassy in Beijing. The two discussed the trade dispute, whether the U.S. policy of economic engagement with China failed, and the trade deal.Rothman argued that, contrary to the dominant narrative in Washington, engagement has accomplished many of the goals it was designed to achieve. China has dramatically liberalized its economy, is one of the largest markets for U.S. companies, and is a source of cheap goods for American consumers. He argued decoupling is both impractical, given how integrated the two economies have become and how much U.S. companies rely on the Chinese market, and politically unfeasible, insofar as U.S. allies would be reluctant to back the effort. A more viable strategy would be to focus on achieving limited goals, such as securing increased market access and IP protection, rather than a structural overhaul of the Chinese economy. However, Rothman said that the first step should be securing a “Phase One” deal.

At the beginning of 2019, Paul Haenle and Tong Zhao, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center Senior Fellow, discussed the outlook for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula on the China in the World podcast. As 2019 draws to a close, Haenle and Zhao sat down again to analyze developments involving North Korea, the United States, and China over the past year and discuss Kim Jong-un’s end of year deadline for the United States to change its approach to denuclearization negotiations.Zhao pointed to Trump and Kim’s failure to reach an agreement at the Hanoi Summit as the biggest surprise in developments relating to diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula in 2019. In the wake of the summit and following a series of unproductive working-level talks, Kim is ramping up pressure on the United States to extract concessions, Zhao said. Pyongyang only wants a limited agreement from Washington that would see the relaxation of the most stringent United Nations Security Council sanctions in return for some controls on North Korea’s nuclear program. Zhao argued the United States and the international community no longer have the coercive ability to force North Korea to take significant actions that would circumscribe its nuclear program. As we approach North Korea’s end of year deadline, Zhao said he is uncertain to what extent Pyongyang will ratchet up tensions if a deal cannot be reached. However, he noted that Kim is increasingly adept at ensuring provactive actions such as missile tests do not irritate Russia or China, while applying greater pressure on the United States. North Korea increasingly views Trump as a paper tiger, Zhao said. Facing domestic pressures and unwilling to go to war, many in Pyongyang believe Trump will eventually lower his demands and agree to a lesser deal.

In October 2019, Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Delaware Senator Chris Coons, delivered speeches laying out their respective visions for the U.S.-China relationship. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute at the Wilson Center, about American and Chinese reactions to the speeches and the implications for the bilateral relationship. “America has woken up to the dangers of China,” Daly said. There is agreement that the bilateral relationship will be more competitive but a lack of consensus on a comprehensive strategy going forward. Daly argued the speeches by Pence, Pompeo, and Coons articulated different strategies for future engagement. Coons laid out an approach in which competition and cooperation with China are not mutually exclusive. He advocated for the United States to revitalize domestic policies that spur economic growth and uphold U.S. values. Alternatively, Pompeo and Pence put forth more confrontational visions for the relationship in line with those of individuals like Steve Bannon and Senator Tom Cotton who view China as an existential threat. Americans must understand that either competition or outright rivalry with China will incur significant costs for the United States, Daly argued, but the latter approach is likely to be more costly in the long term.

Discussion of U.S.-China-Russia relations often focuses on how American policy is driving Moscow and Beijing closer together. This analysis, however, ignores important factors limiting cooperation between China and Russia and preventing the two countries from forming an alliance. Paul Haenle sat down with Carnegie scholars Dmitri Trenin, Eugene Rumer, and Alexander Gabuev to discuss constraints on the China-Russia relationship and their implications for U.S. policy.Trenin, Rumer, and Gabuev agreed that there are clear limits to further China-Russia cooperation. Trenin characterized the relationship as an “entente” driven by a high degree of mutual strategic understanding on common core interests. Gabuev argued that China’s rapid pace of growth relative to Russia’s has led to insecurities in the Kremlin despite their growing economic, military, and technological ties. Russia does not want the relationship to become too asymmetrical and fears becoming overly reliant on Beijing for economic and technological support. Rumer argued neither side is looking for an alliance, as both Moscow and Beijing want to maintain positive relations, but at an arm’s-length. Haenle highlighted that Russia and China hold divergent views of the international system, leading to fundamental disagreements over whether to reform or undermine the global order. He argued that China is increasingly frustrated by Russian attempts to further its geopolitical aspirations by exploiting global instability.

The U.S.-China relationship is bad, and it’s getting worse. In part two of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Da Wei, assistant president and professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, to discuss evolutions in China’s politics, economics, and foreign policy affecting the U.S.-China relationship.Da Wei argued that shifting domestic politics in China and the United States are negatively impacting bilateral ties. In Washington, there is no longer widespread support for engagement with China. In Beijing, debates over the role of the state in the economy, driven by a fear of falling into the middle-income trap, are limiting progress in implementing economic reforms. In the international sphere, China has abandoned its policy of “hide and bide” and is pursuing a more active foreign policy representative of it growing strength. The confluence of the above factors is exacerbating tensions between Beijing and Washington, as well as between China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific. No matter who wins the next U.S. election, Da Wei argued, China’s focus will be on creating a more stable and predictable relationship. Specifically, this will require Beijing and Washington to focus on defining clear areas of competition and cooperation.

The U.S.-China relationship is bad, and it’s getting worse. In part one of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Da Wei, assistant president of and professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, to discuss Chinese perceptions of the Trump administration one month after the August 1st tariff announcements.Da Wei said the Trump administration has focused China’s attention on the need to address underlying issues in the bilateral relationship, but that it has overstepped. President Trump’s use of tariffs has hardened Chinese views and limited Beijing’s ability to make concessions, even if they are in China’s self-interest, without appearing weak. Trump’s decision to impose new tariffs on China following the Osaka G20 meeting and Shanghai negotiations reinforced Chinese views that Trump is unreliable and may even change his mind even if a deal is struck. Da Wei argued Trump’s objectives are different from those of his advisors. Officials in the administration have a range of economic and security goals that are not necessarily aligned with Trump’s. However, Da Wei said that a majority of Chinese people now believe that the United States seeks to undermine China’s rise.

Temporary truces followed by rapid escalations in the U.S.-China trade war continue to hamper progress toward a lasting trade deal. Policymakers in Washington and Beijing are now preparing for the possibility of a protracted dispute, and the ramifications that accompany it. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Jia Qingguo, professor at and former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, about the many factors hampering trade negotiations and the deeper structural issues in the U.S.-China relationship. Haenle and Jia discuss the difficulties facing leaders in both countries as they grapple to resolve trade tensions while dealing with domestic politics, vested interest groups, and strong historical legacies.

In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Medeiros, former special assistant to the president and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, on escalating tensions between Japan and South Korea and the implications for the United States and China.

Presidents Trump and Xi will meet on the sidelines of the G20 later this week following a breakdown in bilateral trade negotiations and amid growing technological competition. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Jake Sullivan, former national security advisor to vice president Joe Biden and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on how U.S. policy toward China might differ under a Democratic president and China’s role in the 2020 presidential campaign.

Upheavals and changing political dynamics across the Middle East are threatening to destabilize the region. External powers, notably the United States and China, are shifting their tactics, as Washington rebalances its presence and Beijing expands its economic interests. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Brett McGurk, former special presidential envoy for the global coalition to defeat ISIS and nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on his extensive background working in the Middle East and the implications of shifting U.S. and Chinese policy for the region.

In May 2018, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in Wuhan for an informal summit that many said helped reset the relationship following the Doklam crisis. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Rudra Chaudhuri, director of Carnegie India, and Srinath Raghavan, senior fellow at Carnegie India, about the state of China-India relations one year after Wuhan, as well as the implications of Trump’s “America First” policies on New Delhi-Beijing relations.

As the United States reassess its involvement in the Middle East, China is stepping up its economic engagement with the region. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Marwan Muasher, vice president for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former deputy prime minister for Jordan, on difficult transitions Middle Eastern countries face following the Arab Spring, as well as the challenges for China as its grows its presence in the Arab world,

In recent weeks Beijing has both won victories and suffered defeats during important summits and dialogues with France and Italy, as well as the European Union. Paul Haenle sat down with Tomas Valasek, director of Carnegie Europe, and Pierre Vimont, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, to discuss underlying issues driving China-Europe relations, the outlook for China’s engagement with the European Union (EU), and the implications for transatlantic relations.

Over three years into Trump’s presidency, U.S.-China trade and economic issues remain unresolved while security concerns are creeping into the bilateral agenda. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Susan Thornton, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, on the trajectory for bilateral ties and the potential for a crisis in U.S.-China relations.

President Xi Jinping travels to Italy and France this month for his first overseas trip of 2019. His visit comes soon after the European Commission labeled China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor.” In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Philippe LeCorre, nonresident senior fellow in the Europe and Asia programs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip and shifting perceptions of China across Europe.

The upcoming Hanoi Summit and the United States’ withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) are two important developments in the area of nuclear arms control with significant implications for the Asia-Pacific region. In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Li Bin, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy and Asia programs, about the importance of these two critical nuclear arms control issues and their implications for China.

To commemorate the fifth anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle is interviewing five of the most influential Chinese scholars to discuss this important inflection point in U.S.-China relations. For the fifth and final episode in this series, Haenle spoke with Professor Yao Yang, one of China's top economists and Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University.

Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address and fourth visit to Beijing quickly put Pyongyang back in the spotlight in 2019. His meeting with Xi Jinping also likely foreshadowed a meeting with President Trump in the near future. On this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, on the implications of Kim’s New Year’s address and meeting with Xi Jinping, as well as the outlook for North Korea’s relations with China and the United States in 2019. Zhao said Kim’s threats to take a “new path” if the U.S. does not lift sanctions does not mean a return to nuclear and missile tests. Instead, Pyongyang will likely strengthen ties with Beijing, departing from its focus on balancing relations between the United States and China. Zhao agreed with Haenle that the North Korea nuclear problem is not solved, as President Trump has claimed. North Korea appears committed to maintaining its intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear programs. The fundamental barrier preventing progress on denuclearization is that Pyongyang will not trust any U.S. security guarantees, as such commitments are reversible. Instead, Zhao pushed for a long-term process that builds trust and transforms the relationship from hostile to friendly. The Kim-Xi relationship is one of convenience, rather than actual friendship, Zhao said. As Kim prepares for a second summit with Trump, he is not confident he can secure sanctions relief and is more willing to cozy up to Beijing. However, building a long-term relationship with the United States remains Kim’s priority. Washington’s support is key to lifting UN sanctions that prevent the North Korean economy from developing quickly. Zhao said China supports a second meeting between Trump and Kim because there is real hope that it could lead to actual progress on a deal. However, if the meeting does not go well, China is likely to blame the United States for not accommodating North Korean demands, widening the gap between Washington and Beijing during a delicate period in the relationship. If the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorates, China might even accuse the United States of deliberately precipitating a crisis to advance its own interests in the region.

How can the United States and China peacefully manage growing bilateral competition? In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, on the concept of the Thucydides Trap and its relevance to the U.S.-China relationship.Allison said the Thucydides Trap is the best framework to understand why there is potential for conflict between the United States and China. As China grew stronger, the U.S. failed to recognize Beijing would increasingly assert its own vision for the international order, thereby challenging the American-led global system. China now represents both a strategic rival and partner for the United States. The bilateral relationship needs a new framework that accounts for significant areas of competition and cooperation. Allison said the United States and China share vital national interests in ensuring the survival of their respective nations and must work to resolve issues clouding the economic relationship. This includes devising a new set of rules that accounts for China’s unprecedented economic development and status as a global power. For guidance, policymakers should look to John F. Kennedy’s post-Cuban Missile Crisis call for a world “safe for diversity.” This would allow nations with different political systems, economic development models, and ideologies to compete in peaceful co-existence.

To commemorate the fifth anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle is interviewing five of the most respected Chinese international affairs scholars to discuss this important inflection point in U.S.-China relations. For the fourth episode in this series, Haenle spoke with Shi Yinhong, Director of the American Studies Institute at Renmin University and Director of the Academic Committee of the School of International Relations.Shi pointed to two important turning points in China’s foreign policy shift to a more assertive international approach. The first was the global financial crisis stressed the importance of China’s economic development as an engine for global growt. The second was Xi’s rise to power and a more ambitious international approach. Shi said China undertook a number of new foreign policy initiative in the South China Sea, relations with Russia, and the Belt and Road Initiative. China is now at a stage where it should assess the successes and failures of its recent foreign policies. Beijing must be willing to be flexible and adjust its future international engagement to reflect the realities of the evolving geopolitical environment. At home, Chinese policymakers should implement much more broad and deep reforms to ensure stable economic and financial systems. This includes areas increasing market access, giving equal treatment to private and state owned enterprises, and addressing core demands laid out in the USTR section 301 report. Time is running out, Shi argued, and China needs to act quickly before implementing further economic reforms becomes too difficult. In the current contentious US-China relationship, Shi said prudent pessimists are needed to think through urgent resolutions and save the bilateral relationship from continuing down a dangerous path.

To commemorate the fifth anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle is interviewing five of the most respected Chinese international affairs scholars to discuss this important inflection point in U.S.-China relations. For the third episode in this series, Haenle spoke with Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University and secretary general of the World Peace Forum.Yan asserted the U.S.-China relationship is experiencing structural disruptions, the resolution of which will have a lasting impact on the two countries. China’s economic achievements over the past 40 years are based on market economy reforms and the development of the private sector, Yan argued. He said the tensions in the U.S.-China relationship are primarily due to the narrowing gap between the two countries’ national strength. Going forward, the United States and China need to address their own domestic problems related to economic growth and technological development before resolving foreign policy issues. Beijing was right to shift from its past policy of keeping a low international profile, Yan said. However, China should focus on strengthening its regional position before moving too quickly into other parts of the globe. The Trump administration has made clear that it will forsake traditional U.S. global leadership roles, Yan said, but China does not yet have the capacity to supplant the United States in the international arena. This new dynamic stresses the need for the two countries to establish a framework that allows for joint leadership, as neither is willing or able to lead unilaterally.

To commemorate the 5th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle is interviewing five of the most respected Chinese international affairs scholars to discuss this important inflection point in U.S.-China relations. For the second episode in this series, Haenle spoke with Wang Jisi, professor in the School of International Studies and president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University.

To commemorate the 5th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle is interviewing five of the most respected Chinese international affairs scholars to discuss U.S.-China relations at an important inflection point. For the first episode in this series, Haenle spoke with Cui Liru, former president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. During the episode, Haenle and Cui discussed lessons from the past 40 years of the bilateral relationship, central areas of cooperation and competition, and a future framework that will allow the U.S. and China to avoid conflict. Cui asserted that U.S. and Chinese interests are not fundamentally incompatible, but that the relationship is in a fragile transition period that will require each country to work harder to better understand the other side’s common and diverging interests.

Do the U.S. midterm election results have implications for the U.S.-China relationship? In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Douglas H. Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the midterm elections and the status of pressing security issues impacting the bilateral relationship, including Taiwan, North Korea, and the South China Sea.

In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, about U.S., Chinese and Russian perspectives on nuclear arms control and its relevance to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

As U.S. relations with China and Russia deteriorate under the Trump administration, bilateral relations between Moscow and Beijing grow stronger. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Dmitri Trenin and Alexander Gabuev, director of and senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, respectively, about dynamics between the three countries and whether U.S. policy is driving China and Russia closer together.

Disagreements between the U.S. and China have the potential to reshape the long-term trajectory of the bilateral relationship. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Daniel Russel, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, on the future prospects for U.S.-China relations and the potential for significant and long-lasting structural shifts in the relationship.

One week after Vice President Pence’s Hudson Institute speech, Paul Haenle spoke with professor Da Wei, assistant president and professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, to understand China’s reaction to the speech and discuss what steps the U.S. and China might take to address the current tensions over trade and economics. Haenle noted that official Chinese narratives about the U.S.-China trade war have been absent Chinese reflection or discussion of what role China’s own policies have played in creating trade tensions. Haenle argued that many of the concerns on structural issues – i.e. market access, intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer, and China’s industrial policies – are of common concern by the international community. Casting these concerns only in the U.S.-China bilateral context leads to narratives in China that accuse the U.S. of seeking to contain China’s rise, rather than as shared global concerns. Da Wei stressed that as China celebrates its 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, Chinese policymakers and academics are beginning to reflect on the need for further economic reforms. However, vested interests among various Chinese stakeholders make implementing these reforms increasingly complicated. Professor Da Wei agreed with Haenle on the need for China to acknowledge the concerns of the international community, pointing toward the meeting between presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 as an opportunity to do so. At the same time, Professor Da Wei suggested that Trump could use the meeting to reassure Xi the U.S. is not seeking to contain China or block its continued development.