Software estimation: False sense of certainty (sps25)

It has been known since the 70s that developers tend to give very optimistic estimations. We prefer to have exact numbers, even if that means they are wrong most of the time. In research, developers admitted that they believe their managers will see them as less competent if they provide estimates with huge margins. But mathematically speaking providing a wider min-max interval means you will be right more often. So, maybe it isn’t really accuracy that businesses and people are looking for. Maybe estimates are needed for the sole purpose of risk aversion. Risk can be measured in other ways. Maybe it is time we stop estimating tasks left and right and instead start managing the project’s risk and customer’s expectations. about this event: https://talks.python-summit.ch/sps25/talk/7EKTCB/