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Show Notes
US President Donald Trump's recent threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on any country "doing business with" Iran has once again injected uncertainty into global trade and raised fresh concerns about the stability of China-US economic relations. While details of the proposed measure remain vague and its legal basis unresolved, the signal it sends is troubling: unilateral tariff threats risk undoing the hard-won progress achieved through dialogue and cooperation in recent months.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普近期威胁称，将对任何“与伊朗开展商业往来”的国家征收25%的关税，此举再次为全球贸易注入不确定性，并引发外界对中美经济关系稳定性的新的担忧。尽管该措施的具体细节仍不明确，其法律依据亦尚未厘清，但其释放出的信号令人不安：单边关税威胁可能抵消近几个月来通过对话与合作所取得的来之不易的进展。
A trading partner of Iran, China's position on the issue is clear and consistent. As Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated in response to questions on the matter on Tuesday, tariff wars have no winners, and China will firmly protect its legitimate and lawful rights and interests. This principled stance reflects not only China's own development experience but also a widely shared international consensus that trade barriers and coercive economic measures ultimately harm all sides.
作为伊朗的贸易伙伴之一，中国在这一问题上的立场清晰且一贯。外交部发言人毛宁在周二就相关问题回应时表示，关税战没有赢家，中国将坚定维护自身合法正当权益。这一原则立场不仅源于中国自身的发展经验，也反映了国际社会的广泛共识，即贸易壁垒和强制性经济措施最终将损害各方利益。
The ambiguity of Trump's new tariff threat unsettles markets, complicates business planning and undermines confidence at a time when the global economy is already facing headwinds. According to the World Bank, the world is entering what may be the weakest decade for growth since the 1960s, with policy uncertainty and trade tensions among the headwinds to global growth.
特朗普新的关税威胁所具有的不确定性扰乱了市场秩序，使企业经营规划更加复杂，并在全球经济本就面临多重逆风的背景下进一步削弱信心。世界银行指出，全球正步入自20世纪60年代以来增长最为疲弱的十年，政策不确定性和贸易紧张局势正是制约全球增长的重要逆风因素。
For China and the United States, the timing of the threat is sensitive. Over the past months, both sides have made concerted efforts to stabilize their economic and trade ties. The outcomes of their five rounds of economic and trade talks have demonstrated that dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit can yield tangible results.
对中美两国而言，这一威胁提出的时机尤为敏感。过去数月，双方一直在共同努力稳定经贸关系。五轮中美经贸会谈的成果表明，建立在平等、尊重与互利基础上的对话能够取得切实成效。
Trump himself has also acknowledged the importance of the bilateral relationship, telling the media on Tuesday he believes China can open its markets further to US goods and reaffirming that he maintains a good relationship with his Chinese counterpart. The US administration should realize that cooperation, not confrontation, serves the fundamental interests of both countries, and China remains a major market to the US.
特朗普本人也承认双边关系的重要性。他周二在接受媒体采访时表示，相信中国可以进一步向美国商品开放市场，并重申其与中方领导人保持着良好关系。美方应当认识到，合作而非对抗符合两国的根本利益，而中国依然是美国的重要市场。
China's economic performance further highlights why confrontation through tariffs is counterproductive. Despite a complex external environment, the country's foreign trade in goods grew by 3.8 percent year-on-year to reach 45.47 trillion yuan ($6.51 trillion) in 2025, hitting a new record high. This resilience, despite some developed economies' "de-risking" or "decoupling" attempts, is driven by China's pro-trade policies, sizable domestic demand as well as its complete and upgrading industrial system that adapts to global needs. For US businesses, China has been and will continue to be an opportunity.
中国的经济表现进一步凸显了通过关税进行对抗的做法适得其反。尽管外部环境复杂多变，2025年中国货物贸易进出口总额同比增长3.8%，达到45.47万亿元人民币（约合6.51万亿美元），再创历史新高。这种韧性在一些发达经济体试图“去风险”或“脱钩”的背景下尤为突出，其根源在于中国坚持促进贸易的政策取向、庞大的国内需求，以及不断升级、能够适应全球需求的完整产业体系。对美国企业而言，中国过去是、今后仍将是机遇所在。
Attempts to use tariffs as tools of extraterritorial pressure run counter to the principles of international trade. Imposing penalties on third countries for their independent trade decisions infringes upon the legitimate rights of other nations and risks fragmenting the global trading system. The US approach only complicates the problem and will not bring more benefits to the US by giving it more leverage to use. Instead, it will introduce a dynamic that is more difficult to manage and create more variables beyond its control. It is an approach that will lead to a lose-lose situation, ultimately harming the interests of the US itself.
将关税作为施加域外压力的工具，违背了国际贸易的基本原则。因第三国作出独立的贸易决策而对其施加惩罚，侵犯了其他国家的正当权利，并有可能导致全球贸易体系碎片化。美方的这一做法只会使问题更加复杂，并不会因为“增加筹码”而为自身带来更多利益，反而会引入更难以管理的局面，制造更多超出其控制范围的变量。这种路径最终将导致两败俱伤，并损害美国自身的利益。
The legal uncertainty surrounding the tariffs within the US adds another layer of uncertainty. The US president's reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs is currently under scrutiny by the Supreme Court. A ruling against the Trump administration would not only curtail its authority to unilaterally raise tariffs but also expose it to substantial financial liabilities.
关税措施在美国国内所面临的法律不确定性又为局势增添了一层变数。美国总统依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施广泛关税的做法，正受到最高法院的审查。若裁决不利于特朗普政府，不仅将限制其单方面加征关税的权力，还可能使其面临巨额的财政责任。
The progress achieved so far in stabilizing China-US economic and trade ties should be cherished, not squandered. Threats of new tariffs, citing whatever pretexts, risk reopening old wounds and sending the wrong signal to markets and the international community.
当前在稳定中美经贸关系方面取得的进展来之不易，应当倍加珍惜，而不应被轻易挥霍。无论以何种理由发出新的关税威胁，都可能重新撕裂旧有伤痕，并向市场和国际社会释放错误信号。
At this juncture, what the world needs most is stability and predictability. China and the US, as the world's two largest economies, bear a special responsibility in this regard. The US should work with China to maintain the momentum in their relations, move forward in the right direction, shorten the list of problems and lengthen the list of cooperation areas.
在当前节点，世界最需要的是稳定性与可预期性。作为全球最大的两个经济体，中美在这方面肩负着特殊责任。美方应同中方一道，保持双边关系的积极势头，沿着正确方向前行，缩短问题清单，拉长合作清单。
Bilateral economic and trade relations are finally experiencing a hard-earned respite from the trading of blows. The US side will only sabotage the development momentum of Sino-US economic and trade ties if it repeats its past mistakes. It should therefore refrain from resorting to its so-called "art of the deal", hallmarked by bluster, coercion, bullying and expectation management.
中美经贸关系终于迎来了难得的喘息空间，暂别你来我往的贸易冲突。若美方重蹈覆辙，只会破坏中美经贸关系的发展势头。因此，美方应避免再度诉诸其所谓的“交易艺术”，即以虚张声势、胁迫施压、霸凌行径和操控预期为特征的做法。
inject uncertainty into /ɪnˈdʒekt ʌnˈsɜːrtənti ˈɪntuː/
向……注入不确定性
hard-won progress /ˌhɑːrd ˈwʌn ˈprɑːɡres/
来之不易的进展
coercive economic measures /koʊˈɜːrsɪv ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk ˈmeʒərz/
强制性经济措施
counterproductive /ˌkaʊntərprəˈdʌktɪv/
适得其反的
extraterritorial pressure /ˌekstrəˌterɪˈtɔːriəl ˈpreʃər/
域外施压