Carnegie Politika Podcast

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Sophia Besch, a fellow at the Carnegie Europe Program, and Eric Ciaramello, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.The recent NATO summit in Vilnius is being labeled by many as a historic moment for the future of European security, and Ukraine's in particular. What were the summit's key results? How will the accession of Sweden to the alliance change the security role of the Baltic Sea? And is the plan for future NATO accession enough to satisfy Ukrainian society?

Alex Gabuev is joined by Tom de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Anna Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar at Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia program, to discuss developments in and around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh. As the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be inching toward a resolution, is the new political reality accepted in Armenia? What does Azeri President Ilham Aliyev hope to achieve? How will the failure of Russian peacekeepers to intervene in recent developments affect the relationship between Moscow and Yerevan? Is the rivalry between competing Western and Russian resolution tracks an asset or a hindrance? And how will an eventual resolution impact on the political systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Why did Xi Jinping choose to visit Moscow at a time when Russia has been ostracized by the global community for its invasion of Ukraine? Did both sides get what they wanted from the visit? Has Russia resigned itself to being the junior partner in this burgeoning relationship? What is China’s agenda in putting forward a peace plan for Ukraine? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Research, and Vita Spivak, an analyst at Control Risks and non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev and Sergei Vakulenko, a new non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, discuss the energy dimension of the ongoing battle between Russia and the West. How successful was Russia’s plan to wreak economic havoc in Europe by choking gas supplies? Can Europe breathe a sigh of relief, or will Russian energy blackmail still a be threat next winter? How effective have Western energy sanctions been in cutting off the cash flow for the Kremlin’s war machine? And what impact has the war in Ukraine had on the green agenda, both in Russia and beyond? Read Vakulenko's piece on how Russian oil companies defied sanctions and paid less tax here: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89052

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses what the next few months may have in store together with Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, and Mark Galeotti, CEO of Mayak Intelligence. As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, Ukraine is set to receive Western battle tanks, while Russia is believed to be planning a new offensive. What military developments can we expect to see in the next few months? What impact will the Western tanks have on Ukraine’s capabilities, and why has the West only agreed to supply them now? What do the changes in the military leadership mean for Russia’s campaign? And who is really dictating Russia’s aims and tactics in this war?

As we relaunch our Russia-focused podcast under the Carnegie Politika brand, FT correspondent Polina Ivanova and economist-in-exile Sergei Guriev join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how access to both data and sources has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and whether people inside the Russian government itself also have a poorer understanding of the broader picture as a result of the same changes.

This podcast episode focuses on the recent upheaval in Kazakhstan and what to expect moving forward. What and who was behind the recent unrest in Kazakhstan? What was the role of Russia? What will become of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family, and what are the implications for other former Soviet countries? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Assel Tutumlu, an assistant professor at the Near East University, and Temur Umarov, a fellow at Carnegie Moscow Center.

What are the roots and drivers of the digital sovereignty narrative in Russian politics? Is there any Russian alternative to foreign 5G technology? How successful is Moscow’s import substitution policy in telecom hardware and software? Is the specter of sanctions against 5G equipment and other civilian telecom software a real threat, or a myth spread by scaremongers? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Janis Kluge, a senior associate with the SWP research facility in Berlin, and Alena Epifanova, a research fellow at DGAP—also in Berlin—to discuss the ideas of digital sovereignty and a sovereign internet, and the challenges to those concepts.

What are the driving forces and goals behind China’s nuclear build-up? Should the ongoing U.S.-Russian arms control talks take into account Chinese progress? And does China’s refusal to take part in those talks render them meaningless? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at Kommersant to discuss China’s plans for its nuclear arsenal.

Is the German regulator’s suspension of the certification process for Nord Stream 2 technical, or political? Why isn’t Gazprom cashing in while prices are so high, by sending additional gas to Europe? How does the Russian gas giant plan to deal with the global green energy transition? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and Sergei Kapitonov, a gas analyst at the energy center of the Skolkovo School of Management, to discuss the European gas crisis and Russia’s role in it.

The pandemic has failed to bring geopolitical rivals together, but has it created new divisions, or merely amplified existing disagreements? And have any lessons been learned for dealing with other global challenges, like climate change? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Kadri Liik, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic became a new frontline in Russia’s competition with the West.

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Elizaveta Fokht, a reporter with the BBC Russian Service, and Andrew Roth, Moscow correspondent for The Guardian, to discuss the outcome of the recent elections for the State Duma. Will the entrance of new parties into the Duma make life difficult for the Kremlin? Why have we seen no real protest movement this time around, despite considerable evidence of electoral fraud? Were there any new voting trends in terms of demographics? And will the pressure on civil society be dialed down now that the elections are over?

Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies’ program on Central Asia, and Temur Umarov, a research consultant at Carnegie Moscow Center, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how Central Asian governments have reacted to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, what their priorities are, and whether any of them might be prepared to facilitate U.S. military operations in the region from their own territory.

How does the latest version of Russia’s National Security Strategy differ from the last one, released in 2015? Does the inclusion in it of environmental issues mean that this is finally a priority for Russia? Why does the strategy fail to address the growing rivalry between China and the United States? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Anastasia Likhacheva, director of HSE’s Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies.

“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.” What’s Alexander Lukashenko’s game plan in Belarus? Could the West have done more when protests broke out last year, and does it have any tools to impact the situation there now? Is there any alternative to Lukashenko that would be acceptable to Russia, or is any future regime now destined to be anti-Russian? Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center, and Sabine Fischer, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Studies, join podcast host Alex Gabuev to discuss events in Belarus.

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Andrey Movchan, a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Maria Shagina, a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich, to discuss the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. After eight years of Western sanctions, has the Russian economy suffered substantially as a result? Do the latest U.S. sanctions in fact show that Washington is ready to turn the page? How successful has Russia’s import substitution been? And how far do sanctions actually play into the Kremlin’s hands at home?

In the wake of the first summit of the Quad countries (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India), this episode of the podcast focuses on the grouping’s scope, its cooperation with other nations, Russia’s significance in the region, and whether the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is impacting the long-established relationship between Russia and India. Featuring podcast host Alex Gabuev; Darshana Baruah, an associate fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University in Tokyo.

Is Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine as successful as the Kremlin claims? Are political considerations really preventing it from getting approval in Western countries? Why is the vaccination rate so low in Russia, and why didn’t Putin get vaccinated sooner? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Henry Foy, Moscow bureau chief of the Financial Times, and Polina Ivanova, a special correspondent for Reuters in Moscow, to discuss these questions and other vaccine-related topics.

How will Russian-Japanese relations be affected by the departure of Japan’s longtime prime minister, Shinzo Abe? What drove his policy of active engagement of Russia, and will that policy continue under his successor? What potential remains for cooperation? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Taisuke Abiru to discuss these issues and more.

Alex Gabuev is joined by Janka Oertel, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss changing attitudes in Europe toward China and Russia, and the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing.

What are the main risks from the current state of competition between Moscow and Washington? Is there a pragmatic agenda on which both sides are interested in cooperating? What tools can be used to safely manage this great-power competition? Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how relations could be reimagined. Trenin and Graham's joint commentary on the same topic can be found here:https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83432

How significant are the mass protests that swept Russia last Saturday and look set to be repeated this weekend? Has the Kremlin lost the battle for people's minds? And how much are these protests really about the opposition leader Alexei Navalny? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor at The Economist.

Will China be able to replace Russia as a security provider in Central Asia? What does China bring to the region that Russia has not, and what role is there for Europe and the West there? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his Carnegie colleague Temur Umarov and Niva Yau Tsz Yan, a Eurasia Program fellow at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Has the hyping of foreign cyber influence in recent years overshadowed the need to address domestic disinformation? What would a democratic alliance on data regulation look like, and what should its core principles be? Is there a place for authoritarian countries like Russia in that alliance? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Marietje Schaake, international policy director at Stanford University’s Cyber Policy Center to explore these issues.

Most new U.S. administrations are greeted with hopes for a new era in U.S.-Russian relations, but does anyone in Russia expect anything positive to come of a Biden presidency? Will a more predictable White House mean fewer or more sanctions against Russia? Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent for Kommersant, and Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss what the next U.S. administration will mean for Russia.

It’s been relatively quiet on the Korean Peninsula for the past two years, but is this the calm before the storm? What will North Korea do to ensure it remains a U.S. foreign policy priority if Joe Biden wins the U.S. election? What impact has the coronavirus pandemic had on Kim Jong Un’s regime? And how have North Korea’s relations with China gone from rock bottom to best of friends in just three years? Carnegie’s English-language podcast host Alex Gabuev talks to Myong-Hyun Go, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, about where North Korea is headed.

If diplomacy fails to end the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Nagorno-Karabakh, what’s next for the troubled region? Turkey escalated the conflict; now can it be the one to deescalate it? And will Turkey’s intervention affect Russian-Turkish cooperation in other parts of the world? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses these questions and more with Tom de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe and expert on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Sinan Ülgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yevgeny Preigerman, founder and director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations; Nataliya Vasilyeva, Moscow correspondent for The Telegraph; and Oksana Antonenko, director of the Global Political Risk team at the UK-based Control Risk consultancy and a member of the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN). They discuss the violent crackdown on protests in Belarus and its consequences, Lukashenko’s long-term prospects, whether the opposition can possibly win, the role of Russia and the West in the ongoing protests, and more.

The coronavirus pandemic has only intensified the rivalry between the United States and China, hastening the advent of a new era of bipolarity. How can Russia maintain equilibrium and avoid being drawn into the U.S.-China confrontation as a junior partner of China? Will the collapse of oil prices and subsequent loss of revenue force Russia to rein in its ambitious foreign policy of recent years? Are there renewed hopes for progress in the Donbas peace talks? And will the Kremlin finally be forced to turn its focus to domestic affairs? Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at the Kommersant publishing house, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss these issues and more.

China deployed an array of digital surveillance tools as part of its response to the coronavirus outbreak. Russia is trying to use similar technology but with mixed results. The rapid embrace of such tools is sparking an international debate about the impact on privacy and the need for protections and oversight. In this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center podcast, Alex Gabuev discusses how digital surveillance tools and facial recognition technologies are being used in the post-Soviet space in the age of COVID-19 with China watcher Leonid Kovachich; Paul Stronski, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program; and Steven Feldstein, a nonresident fellow in the Carnegie Endowment's Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program.

Russia-China relations get a lot of coverage in Moscow, but what’s the view from Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East? Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev talks to Ivan Zuenko, an expert on the Sino-Russian relationship, about the real scale of the Chinese presence in Russia’s Far East, attitudes among both Chinese and Russian people to one another, the Belt and Road initiative, and more. This is a joint episode with Evan Feigenbaum's China Local/Global podcast: https://soundcloud.com/carnegie-audio/asia-localglobal-ivan-zuenko

Could Coronavirus actually be a boost for the Chinese government? Is it better to be spied on by China or the United States? Is Russia really serious about its pivot to Asia? Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev and The Financial Times’ Asia editor Jamil Anderlini discuss the impact of Coronavirus on the Russian economy, how the virus is influencing the ongoing US-China trade war, and how events in Asia affect the choices European countries are making.

In this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center podcast, host Alex Gabuev talks to two foreign correspondents currently based in Moscow. Robyn Dixon recently returned to Russia as head of the Washington Post Moscow bureau, having previously worked here for eight years through 2003. Our other guest is Max Seddon of the Financial Times, who has been working in Russia since 2012. Together they discuss what it's like to be a foreign journalist in Moscow, what has changed in the last 20 years, the differences in reporting from China and Russia, and how to deliver the most accurate and least biased story from Russia under the current circumstances.

In December, Gazprom launched its 8,000-km Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China. Sergei Kapitonov, an energy analyst at the Skolkovo School of Management, talks to Carnegie Moscow Center's Alexander Gabuev about the timing of the launch and the prospects and risks of delivering Russian gas to a single buyer.

Changes in foreign trade—the backbone of economic prosperity for Putin’s Russia—reflect the giant shifts in Moscow’s relations with the outside world. Five years after the annexation of Crimea, Russia is moving away from the West and trading less with the EU, while increasing the share of its trade with Asia, in particular with China. Alex Gabuev, a senior fellow and chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, examines the implications of this for Russia, the EU, and the Eurasian Economic Union with podcast guests Tatiana Flegontova, deputy head of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, and Dr. Janis Kluge, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

In September 2014, following the annexation of Crimea, the outbreak of war in the Donbas, and the introduction of the first Western sanctions against Russia, the Kremlin announced a "pivot to Asia." Five years on, what's the outcome of this policy? Have Russia and China really formed a new, much stronger partnership? Alex Gabuev, a senior fellow and chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, sat down to discuss just that with Vita Spivak, head of analytical projects at the Expert creative agency.