Bullish Board, Bearish Leverage – Friggin' Farm & Ranch Report (March 25, 2026)
Strong cattle board and boxed beef, thin cash trade, worsening Western drought, and a quiet land grab reshaping ranch country.
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Show Notes
Today's Friggin' Farm & Ranch Report for March 25, 2026 — MLB Opening Day edition.
Daily Call: Bullish board, bearish producer leverage. Confidence: 70%.
Board & Boxes: June live cattle ~234.65, up ~1.25 on the day. April feeders ~352.48, up ~1.30. Choice boxed beef just under $400, Select mid-390s. Packer margin jumped from ~$57 to ~$118/head in one week.
Cash Trade & Leverage: Multiple March days labeled light or inactive on negotiated slaughter cattle. Some days only a few hundred head set the national cash price. Cash fats steady near 235 while packer margins double.
Nevada & West Drought: Humboldt Basin snowpack at ~40% of median SWE — lowest on record. Multiple Nevada SNOTEL sites at record lows. Around 55% of the Lower 48 in drought. NV, AZ, CO, NM all worsening. Tighter Walker and Humboldt River allocations ahead.
Policy & Macro: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power infrastructure — crude eased, equities rallied, cattle followed. Fed still higher for longer. No new farm bill or EPA rule today, but rates and input costs keep grinding.
Quiet Land Grab: Senate budget proposals targeting 2-3 million acres of federal land for sale. Stan Kroenke acquired ~937,000 acres in New Mexico. Pathfinder Ranches (~916,000 acres in Wyoming) sold early 2026. Land consolidation is accelerating.
The Daily Call will be revisited and scored in a future episode. Questions and pushback welcome.
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