Watch the Data not the News on Inflation
Broken Pie Chart · Broken Pie Chart
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Show Notes
Last week the latest CPI inflation data came out from the BLS. If you watched the news, they played it up. While we don't know what inflation will be with any certainty, stop watching the news and start watching the data for yourself. In this week's episode, Derek runs through factors to keep an eye on and where you can track the data for yourself.
What's going in with rental car prices? What about energy prices? What happens if you remove the re-opening items from core CPI?
CPI Consumer Price Index up 5.4% year over year in June 2021
Why are rental car prices surging?
Commenting on Scott Minerd's piece on Guggenheim's site around inflation
Sticky CPI vs Flexible CPI
Real Disposable income check-in
Housing prices vs mortgage payments as a percent of real disposable income
Interesting items in CPI including rent, owners equivalent rent, shelter, used cars, rental cars, and more
How you can track CPI trends
Where to find the data on FRED Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis site
Mentioned in this Episode:
Real Disposable Income data https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96
Sticky CPI vs Flexible CPI data https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice
Mortgage Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP
Household Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
Article explaining the rise in rental car prices https://www.businessinsider.com/rental-car-shortages-us-travel-demand-chip-shortage-2021-4
Scott Minerd Guggenheim piece saying not to panic on inflation https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/still-no-reason-to-panic-about-inflation?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=scott+minerd&utm_content=macroeconomic+research&utm_campaign=macro+alert
BLS Inflation Data Release https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Derek Moore's Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&