Now Its 1 Fed Rate Cut? | Nvidia Options Volatility Implied Move at Earnings | Sell in May and Go Away in Election Years? | Inflation Higher Than 1970s?
Broken Pie Chart · Derek Moore
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Show Notes
Derek Moore discusses the declining probabilities for Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. Plus, how PCE Supercore did not make the case for Fed rate cuts. Later, looking at the analyst's expectations for earnings growth within the S&P 500 Index. Finally, comments on a paper showing how using the pre-1983 methods to compute CPI Consumer Price Index show we had higher inflation that the 1970s.
Declining Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for 2024.
Explaining how implied interest rates from Fed Funds futures are computed.
The case against rate cuts seems to be buoyed by sticky US CPI Supercore measures.
What is CPI Supercore and PCE Supercore compared to CPI Core and plain old CPI?
Explaining how the US CPI Consumer Price Index used to compute inflation prior to 1983.
How measuring housing inflation changed in 1983.
Why did they change how CPI is measured to owners' equivalent rent?
Looking at the probabilities for rate cuts across different Fed FOMC meeting dates
What about Sell in May and Go Away in election years?
Explaining how to tell what the options market is implying for a 1-standard deviation move
Implied volatility around Nvidia earnings date scheduled for May 22nd
How to calculate the implied move in a stock based on the options market
Examining the at the money ATM straddle on Nvidia options expiring 2 days after earnings
Mentioned in this Episode
Is it 1994 All Over Again? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306
Podcast: Explaining How and Why Bonds Make or Lose Money https://open.spotify.com/episode/3AUT2DVbHfEQyJglpe70nP?si=wIFug8IfR1-sb_bX03qNHA
Previous Week's Podcast:
Market Correction | Mortgage Rates Higher | No Thanks 24-Hour Trading | Synthetic Options https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/market-correction-mortgage-rates-higher-no-thanks-24/id1432836154?i=1000653114012
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Contact Derek [email protected]