Is The Federal Reserve Really That Bad At Long Range Economic Forecasts?
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Show Notes
Broken Pie Chart | Episode 31
With Derek Moore
Is The Federal Reserve Really That Bad At Long Range Economic Forecasts?
Show Summary:
In this episode Derek Moore discusses how the Federal Reserve economic survey projections have been off, especially for long run economic forecasts. He also clarifies the difference between the Fed Funds Rate, Discount Rate, and IOER or Interest on Excess Reserves. Plus, Derek explains where to find the probabilities for the Fed Funds rate by looking at the CME Fed Funds Futures.
Should the Federal Reserve even be doing long range forecasting?
How St. Louis Fed President James Bullard once left his long-range interest rate dot blank?
What is the Federal Funds Rate?
What is the Federal Reserve's Discount Rate?
What is the Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (IOER)?
What is the Federal Reserve's Dot Plot?
How to find Fed Funds probabilities of interest rate changes
Where to find historical Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Mentioned in this Episode:
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says Fed can't do long range projections https://theotrade.com/dramatic-shift-feds-bullard-says-fomc-stop-making-long-run-projections/
Fed Funds Futures Probabilities of Rate Cuts or Rate Rises https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Calendar and Historical Dot Plots https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm
Contact Derek Moore www.razorwealth.com
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr