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Show Notes
Lately commentators have been trying to predict the next recession. But what would you look at to try and tell for yourself what the numbers are? In this episode Derek Moore reviews the 5 areas that the NBER per their site uses to develop their criteria to call recessions.
What is a recession?
NBER historical list of recessions
Real GDP Growth Rate
Real Median Income Growth in the U.S.
Unemployment Rate
Retail Sales Monthly Growth Rate
Industrial Production Index
Real versus Nominal Growth Rates
Mentioned in this Episode:
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDP Now Forecast https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
United States Real GDP Growth Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
United States Inflation Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED Retail Sales Monthly growth rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILMPCSMSA
US Annual Median Real Wage Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
US Real Median Personal Income Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
US Civilian Unemployment Rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
US Industrial Production Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO
Atlanta Fed Real Wage Growth Tracker (more updates) https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx
Atlanta Fed Real Wage Growth by Job Switcher and Job Stayer https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx
Book: Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/31oy1hE
Razor Wealth Management www.razorwealth.com