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Show Notes
It's official, we reached a bear market in stocks. But when and how long will a pending recession last? How do you know an official recession has been declared?
What is a recession?
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
NBER vs GDP 2 quarters decline
Calculate GDP C + I + G + (X – M)
Annualizing GDP quarterly growth rate
Cyclical, Structural, or Event Driven Bear Markets
Supply Shocks vs Demand Shocks
Recoveries: U Shaped vs. V Shaped vs. L Shaped
Mentioned in this Episode:
Percent change real GDP growth rates https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI
Historical recessions from the NBER https://www.nber.org/cycles.html
HBR Harvard Business Review economic shocks of coronavirus https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus
Forbes on bear markets https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/03/17/keep-calm-bear-markets-are-temporary/#388b279230ba
Podcast deconstructing GDP and Inflation https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/broken-pie-chart/e/56922114
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com