Deep Dive: Can Bonds Recover? | TLT ETF Breakdown |Inflation and the Fed
Broken Pie Chart · Broken Pie Chart
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Show Notes
Derek Moore explains what it would take interest rate wise for bonds and TLT to get back to breakeven on price. A lot of misunderstanding is out there on buying bonds at the bottom and what that means. How bonds have different drivers than stocks. Plus, inflation is ticking back up and what that means for the Fed. Finally, a deep dive into TLT components and the math behind what those buying TLT are hoping for.
What would make bonds go back up?
Examining TLT iShares 20+ etf components
Effective Duration to show how interest rates affect bond etfs and bonds.
Math behind movement in bonds
What would it take for TLT to get back to breakeven with regard to interest rates?
Looking at 30-year treasuries issued in 2020 that are down greater than 50%
Inflation ticked back up with CPI year over year reaching 3.7% YoY from its low of 3%
What does inflation moving back up mean for the Fed and interest rates?
Earnings seasons begins with expectations rising
Are earnings still the most important driver of price?
Multiple expansion vs earnings falling
Mentioned in this Episode:
Bond Market Collapse https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bond-market-collapse-oil-price-problems-bond-stock/id1432836154?i=1000630742799
Government Shutdowns & Markets | Short ITM Puts Alternative to Covered Calls | Why Hedging Works
John Hussman 12-year forward nominal return estimates chart https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230724/
Cheap vs Expensive Options | Warren Buffett on Options | Fed Powell Presser
0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Berkshire Hathaway meeting discuss using and pricing options https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMkpou-YBGw
Implied Volatility Deep Dive | Real Interest Rate Yields | The Big Short | Tesla vs Nvidia
GameStop Short Squeeze by the Reddit Wall Street Bets Traders Explained
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-pie-chart/id1432836154?i=1000507187446
The Big Short Movie and Credit Default Swaps Explained
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6FG0xHkxfhSXEtbJbFbDF6
Margin Call Movie and Understanding Value at Risk https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek [email protected]