Bloomberg Surveillance

Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says 2023 is opening the door for a recession. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says small caps are starting to outperform. Daragh Maher, HSBC Head of Research Americas & Head of US FX Strategy, says risk appetite has been at the core of everything that's happening in the FX market. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says the oil narrative has shifted from supply to a demand. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says there's reason to be slightly hopeful for 2023. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief US Economist, says its clear the Fed is not done hiking. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says the risk of recession is high. Ola Kaellenius, Mercedes-Benz Group CEO, says what happens in China matters for the auto industry. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Officer & Global Head of Investments, says 2023 will be a tale of two halves. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Chief Economist, says we're not seeing a lot of loosening in the labor market. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses Tesla delaying new hires in Shanghai. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow & 'SAUDI INC: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit if Profit & Power' Author, discusses China's Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. This episode focuses on Royal Caribbean Group CFO Naftali Holtz, who moved into the job at the start of 2022 when former CFO Jason Liberty was promoted to CEO. Carol Massar speaks with Holtz and Liberty about the company's comeback from a total shutdown during the pandemic, and its plans to rebuild its business and its balance sheet.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Research Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says the oil market is 'springy' because inventories remain quite low. Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says the bond market is telling you that inflation is a thing of the past. Blerina Uruci, T.Rowe Price US Economist, says the Fed will need to continue hiking. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says the Republican party is very fractured in the House. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Solomon, Goldman Sachs Chairman & CEO, says pay is set to fall as there are 'bumpy times ahead.' Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says the likelihood of a soft landing is low. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist, says this year comes down to positioning. Edward Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, says it will be painful if oil hits $65. Brian Deese, National Economic Council Director, discusses Biden's trip to the TSMC plant in Arizona. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Markets 360 Chief US Economist, says the Fed will keep at it until the job is done. Rebecca Patterson, Bridgewater Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed is not likely to ease in '23. Stephen Roach, Yale Professor and Author of 'Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives', says it's important to stay focused on a potential wage price spiral. Gabriel Makhlouf, Ireland Central Bank Governor, says the euro area is likely to endure a technical recession.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, discusses the November jobs report. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Federal Reserve Governor, says the Fed has to keep at it until the labor market cracks. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, is watching wage data and a potential wage price spiral. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, says the jobs report is giving mixed signals. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, is confident this market rally will continue through December. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, sees GBP-USD at 1.25 next year. Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus Mellon Chief Economist, sees an economic downturn within the next 12 months. Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics Chief US Economist, says the Fed doesn't want to overtighten. Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer, says the Fed has to pray this labor market quiets down. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economics Research, says real economic growth is accelerating in the US. Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed won't be able to cut rates in 2023. Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says the Fed's path to a soft landing is narrow. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says the dollar has peaked. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, sees the Fed pausing rate hikes once they get to a 5.25-5.5% range and then holding for a longer period. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Market Advisory, says the top of the market still has risk. Evan Brown, UBS Asset Management Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, says the US economy is still reasonably health despite the Fed's rate hikes. Vasileios Gkionakis, Citi Head of European FX Strategy, says the US dollar is at an inflection point. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Head of Global Fixed Income, says that, from an investment perspective, the protests in China are just another part of the broader story of economic turmoil. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the bond market is pricing in a recession. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, says the future of oil in the US is very hazy. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Senior Equity Analyst, says Apple is at the mercy of China's Covid Zero policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs Multi Asset Strategist, says China's path forward is going to be incredibly bumpy. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, expects the dollar to see a "series of jagged peaks" and be "significantly weaker by the end of next year." Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Former Federal Reserve Economist, still thinks the US could skirt a recession. Joe Feldman, Telsey Senior Research Analyst & Assistant Director of Research, says we may have seen the end of the in-person early morning Black Friday rush. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alan Blinder, Princeton University Professor of Economics & "A Monetary & Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021" author, expects to see more separation between the Fed and the Treasury in time. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says he will be bullish on oil come next spring. Troy Gayeski, FS Investment Solutions Chief Market Strategist & Managing Director, thinks Bitcoin will be around for the long haul, but says it will remain very volatile. Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics Chief Global Economist, expects recessions in the UK and the Eurozone. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alvaro Pereira, OECD Acting Chief Economist, predicts global growth will slow to 2.2% in 2023. Dana Peterson, Conference Board Chief Economist, says the economy will be flat in 2023. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO says it's hard to see a turn in the dollar if we still have problematic growth in China. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says there's a risk of diesel shortages. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees Bitcoin below $10,000. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we are at an inflection point. David Riley, BlueBay Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says we are close to peak inflation. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says his long-term worry is not Russia, but China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jean-Yves Fillion, BNP Paribas USA CEO, says the US economy is the most resilient in the world. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Officer & Global Head of Investments, says the Fed may raise rates too high and keep it there for too long. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, says there is confusion in the oil market. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about the curve inversion and other catalysts that are forming his core market view. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says central banks have made inflation worse. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says there's more curve inversion to be realized. Nick Bennenbroek, Wells Fargo International Economist, says Europe is already in a recession. Beata Kirr, Bernstein Private Wealth Management Co-Head of Investment Strategies, says the market is trying to find its footing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Admiral James Stavridis, Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says the rocket hit in Poland was a wake-up call about the war. Elliot Ackerman, Former White House Fellow, US Marine Corps Veteran and Co-Author of '2034: A Novel Of The Next World,' says wars are escalatory by nature. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, says to expect a "challenged" holiday retail season. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist, says bitcoin is just another risk asset. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gilles Moec, AXA Investment Managers Chief Economist, says Europe is sliding into a recession. Linda Duessel, Federated Hermes Senior Equity Strategist, says not to chase this rally. Rep. Andy Barr, Republican from Kentucky, says the GOP needs to do some soul searching. Mike Pyle, Deputy National Security Advisor, says President Biden's vision was essential to getting the G-20 communique over the finish line. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says easing rates won't be enough to revive big tech. Diane Swonk, KPMG, Chief Economist, says inflation looks like it's peaking. Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says inflation is less about the peak and more about the rate of decline. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, expects markets to stay volatile for a bit longer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Management Chief Economist, says the Fed might actually be able to achieve a soft landing. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says the market bottom is now in. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says it's a really interesting moment for the euro. Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Foresight Founder & Geopolitical Strategist, says the US republic, as we know it, faces some serious pressures. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities Chief US Economist, says there's evidence we are moving away from peak inflation. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says it's a mistake to stay all in cash. Michael Regan, EPA Administrator, says there's an opportunity to deploy technology to reduce methane. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, says it's not too soon to call Ron DeSantis the new leader of the Republican party.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says it's time to get invested. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Chief Currency Strategist, says we've seen a shift in dollar sentiment. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says Biden's decision to run for a second term depends on Trump's. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the descent from high inflation is going to be far from gradual. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says the inflation spike of the past year and a half is not primarily a central bank or political phenomenon. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says the Republican Party is ready to take the lead on inflation. Rep. Peter Welch, (D) Vermont, says we need to make clean energy affordable. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group, expects the midterm elections just to be a small blip for markets. Dan Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, Author of “The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations," says gasoline prices have a real impact on how people vote. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, discusses outlook and market implications if the US midterms yield a divided government. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics & Policy Director at Brown University, says Democrats have more to do on messaging to voters. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Research Analyst, says Apple is facing a supply issue, not a demand issue. Nela Richardson, ADP Research Institute Co-Head & Chief Economist, expects inflation to be more persistent. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, discusses the October jobs report. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, weighs the Federal Reserve's next move. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Federal Reserve Governor, says the Fed is looking for cracks in the labor market. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says today's jobs report is a challenge for the Fed and the market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americans Head of Macro Strategy, says the Federal Reserve must be cautious. Winnie Cisar, CreditSights Global Head of Credit Strategy, says investment-grade debt at historic high-yield levels has the "flex" to hedge against the risk of a US economic downturn. Geoffrey Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Strategist, examines the key differences between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Dean Maki, Point72 Chief US Economist, sees more momentum in the US than in Europe and the UK. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. This episode focuses on Duke Energy CFO Brian Savoy, who tells Alix Steel how the company plans to invest $145B over the next decade to transform its energy generation portfolio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, say it's too premature for markets to be pricing peak interest rates. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodities Research, says the return of demand from China won't push the price of crude oil above $100. Michael Gapen, Bank of America Chief US Economist, says the Federal Reserve is not in the business of shutting down markets. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, discusses his interview with US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy on "Peer-to-Peer Conversations." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Equity Derivatives & Quantitative Strategist, thinks the Fed is about to downshift. Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security, says the US still maintains ties with Saudi Arabia despite the “significant disagreement” over the OPEC+ decision to cut oil output. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says central banks would love to see a reversal in dollar strength. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says the Fed is eager for a downshift. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief Us Economist, says he wouldn't be surprised if the Fed's policy rate ends up above 5%. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Head of Research, says we could see $100 oil by the end of the year. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income, says people are excited about fixed income again. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, predicts gridlock in Washington following the midterm elections. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says nobody knows what the market is or should do going forward given the complexity of the new macro environment. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist, discusses the US dollar’s impact on earnings and why he thinks there will be fewer buybacks next year. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the market is consistently underestimating the level of inflation. Steve Case, AOL Co-Founder, discusses his new book “The Rise of the Rest” and his outlook for the tech sector. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nathan Sheets, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the global economy is looking soft. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director, says prices are starting to recede in some areas of the economy. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says Democrats are in trouble for the upcoming midterm election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says the bear market will probably be over sometime in the first quarter of 2023. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economics Research, says the Fed is failing miserably if they are viewing the labor market as the conduit to achieve their inflation objectives. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says we may have to wait for Powell’s press conference next week to confirm or reject the Fed-pause narrative. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini MacroAssociates CEO & 'Megathreats' Author, discusses the "megathreats" facing the US economy. Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, says it's very hard to see something that's a smooth landing in any way. Mary Barra, General Motors CEO, discusses third-quarter results, efforts to address supply-chain issues and electric-vehicle expansion plans. Jordan Rochester, Nomura International G-10 FX Strategist, says the UK is the canary in the coal mine for everybody around the world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says a slowdown is coming. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says markets haven't yest priced in recession. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says the market is back in charge. Peter Trubowitz, LSE Professor of International Relations & Chatham House Associate Fellow, says China's President Xi is consolidating his hold on power and pushing China's ambitions in the region. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says real yields are back. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Market Advisory, says the Fed has trapped itself. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Chief Market Strategist, says inflation is close to a peak See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Purves, Tallback Capital Advisors CEO & Founder; Nicholas Bennenbroek, Wells Fargo International Economist; and Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Chief Economist, react to the resignation of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Deese, National Economic Council Director, says all options are on the table when it comes to a potential ban on diesel exports. Scott Kirby, United Airlines CEO, says business class demand will continue to increase. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor In Chief, says the US economy is the number one issue for voters right now. Dennis Gartman, Chairman of the University of Akron's Endowment Fund & Retired Editor of The Gartman Letter, says 2022 is only going to get uglier. Anwiti Bahuguna, Columbia Threadneedle Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, is seeing no signs of peak inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management Head of North America Investments, says the earnings bar has been revised down. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Managing Director & Head of Short Term Portfolio Management, says "short-term paper is the place to hide" right now. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, says sterling needs volatility to go away. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, says Netflix's new advertising tier could prove to be a very diluted strategy in the short-term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oliver Bäte, Allianz CEO, says investors are underestimating liquidity traps. Bob Miller, BlackRock Head of Americas Fundamental Fixed Income, says returns are "starting to look reasonable" for investors in high-quality assets. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets US Equity Strategy Head, says defensives are at peak valuation. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, expects even further dollar upside from here. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International Co-Founder & CEO, says China President Xi Jinping is unlikely to change his strategy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says nations are in for a “rocky ride” as they adjust to dollar strength. Raghuram Rajan, Former Central Bank of India Governor, says larger emerging market countries have become more prepared for a crisis by building up their FX reserves. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says a Fed pivot is not in the cards right now. Eric Freedman, US Bank Asset Management Chief Investment Officer, thinks it makes sense to dip into the front end of the treasury curve. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Deese, National Economic Council Director, says we need to make progress on rising food prices. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, says inflation is still the IMF's top worry. Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, reacts to the US CPI report. David Malpass, World Bank President, says cutting the debt of poor nations is under discussion. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tim Adams, Institute of International Finance President and CEO, says central bankers are facing their toughest job yet. Axel Weber, Institute of International Finance Chairman, says the ECB is in a worse position than the Fed. Klaas Knot, European Central Bank Governing Council Member, says a “continued effort” is needed to bring inflation under control. Kristin Johnson, CFTC Commissioner, discusses who they are working with the SEC on cryptocurrency regulation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Governor Ned Lamont, (D) Connecticut, says Connecticut is prepared for an economic downturn. Jim Zelter, Apollo Global Co-President, says high-yield nearing 10% is "attractive." Nadia Calvino, Spain Deputy Prime Minister, stresses the importance of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says the Fed has a communication issue. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed owes the world a mea culpa. Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says there is worse to come for the market. Gilles Moec, AXA Investment Managers Chief Economist, says recession is absolutely unavoidable at this stage. Bob Yawger, Mizuho Energy Futures Strategist, says we will probably see oil trading near $100. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marty Walsh, US Secretary of Labor, discusses the September employment report. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Chief US Economist, weighs the Federal Reserve's next move. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Federal Reserve Governor, says this jobs report keeps the Fed on track for a 75-basis-point hike at the next meetings. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the Fed is sending mixed messages. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, sees "huge opportunities" in fixed income. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group President, says the world is heading into the winter with a thimble of oil. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, reacts to US jobless claims. Bipan Rai, CIBC Capital Markets NA Head of FX Strategy, expects rates to remain higher for longer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. In this episode, Deutsche Post DHL Group CFO Melanie Kreis tells Tom Mackenzie how the the logistics giant has built capital and diversified its portfolio while accelerating growth during the Covid pandemic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.