Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod

This week’s podcast is going out to all subscribers. Please feel free to share liberally with friends and colleagues. If you are interested in getting more 🐿️ - get in touch with me for a trial.Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThis week’s (2 in 1!) podcast running order:Doc! My EM Tech is sick!“Will Energy Kill The Japanese Bull Market?” - with Mateen Chaudhry (from minute 14.30)The full 'Monday' and 'Start the Week' notes can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThis week’s (2 in 1!) podcast running order:- Adobe: SaaSacre™ Victim or Don Draper’s Nightmare?- “The Silver Short Squeeze is OVER” - with John Johnston (from minute 21)The full 'Monday' and 'Start the Week' notes can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThis week’s (2 in 1!) podcast running order:- The weekend note - Meet ShinyAcorns™- “Time to get Bullish Asian FX?” - with Tom Roderick (from minute 24)The full 'Monday' and 'Start the Week' notes can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThis week's pod running order:1. The weekend note - Did I buy GDX in a Safari Suit?2. There are not enough EM assets to go around - with Louis Gave (from minute 20)3. "Did Banks Catch the SaaS Flu? -Benny & The Squirrel - the Sunday Show (from Minute 90)The full 'Monday' and 'Start the Week' notes can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

A Trillion to TashkentScott Osheroff is true emerging market frontiersman. On Tuesday, he and I sat down to discuss the investment opportunity in Uzbekistan. This is a macro story that ticks multiple boxes for the 🐿️. I had been doing quite a bit of homework on this topic and I wanted to time our conversation for after the recent Templeton / UzNIF investor day in Tashkent. This weekend’s note will be my deep dive on the opportunity.In the meantime, please enjoy our discussion as an introduction to the theme. Following YurtaScott is the CIO of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund (link) and CEO of Yurta Capital (link). You can follow him on Twitter and he provides regular market commentary on the Yurta Telegram channel. Podcast Overview00:00 — Introductions and BackgroundWe cover Scott’s early career in Southeast Asia, involvement with Asia Frontier Capital, and start in Myanmar. In 2018, Scott toured Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, noting Uzbekistan’s impressive growth and infrastructure. He convinced AFC to launch a fund focused on Uzbekistan to capture this unique opportunity.03:00 — Central Asia overview and geopolitical contextScott explains Central Asia’s geopolitical importance, highlighting Uzbekistan as the “belt buckle” of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative and the competing influence from China, Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Europe, and the US. 06:00 — The Uzbekistan macro storyScott covers Uzbekistan’s hawkish central bank, inflation reduction from ~20% to ~8.5%, economic growth of ~6%, and a stronger currency fueled by gold production and remittances. The regulatory environment is open for foreigners to invest, with high yields on government bills, term deposits, and corporate bonds (up to 30%). Investor capital controls exist but are easily manageable for foreigners.12:40 — Uzbekistan National Investment Fund (UzNIF). Scott explains UzNIF, the fund holding shares in state-owned Uzbek enterprises that is expected to be dual-listed in London and Tashkent early in 2026. Managed by Franklin Templeton, the UzNIF portfolio includes banks, utilities, and transportation assets. The fund will be listed as part of a broader privatization push. ​18:00 — Investor interest and governance reformsScott talks about high level of global investor interest at the recent UzNIF investor day, highlighting Franklin Templeton’s role in improving SOE governance, including in board and management appointments and influence on robust capital allocation discipline. 23:00 — Public market valuation and banking sectorUzbek listed banks and industrials trade at low valuations. Banks currently trade at 1-2x book, with low single digit PEs of 3-4x - with very rapid earnings and book value growth (30-40%+ annually). Banking is transitioning to digital but remains traditional, primarily lending in local currency. Rising interest income spreads make the sector attractive.28:00 — Metals production and fiscal reservesScott highlights the Navoi gold mine (the world’s 4th largest) and a large copper mine expansion at Almalyk as key drivers of the Uzbek resource story. The country is fiscally sound, with a well-managed reserve policy. Uzbekistan holds $50-55 billion in FX reserves, with a large share in gold. 30:30 — What can go wrong?Scott sees no major political risk despite uncertainties about presidential succession. The economy is moving away from manufacturing, which is declining due to subsidy removal, toward services, logistics, and tourism. Remittances from 5 million overseas Uzbeks form a large part of GDP (around $18 billion). Growth may slow in a downturn but remains robust.34:30 — Closing remarks and more about Yurta!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.blindsquirrelmacro.comThe full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.comMusic from Max Slorach. Find him at:email: [email protected] / web: maxonsax.com.auThanks for listening!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.