Better System Trader

Tomas Nesnidal has been a full-time trader for over 11 years, specializing in automated algorithmic trading strategies. He has experience with a number of trading styles, including option trading, spread trading, statistical arbitrage and market internals but in this episode we're going to discuss one of his other specialties, breakout trading. In our chat we discuss the key components of a breakout strategy and how to combine them to create profitable trading strategies. We also discuss the degradation of strategies over time, how to add new life into old strategies and why creative thinking is such an important aspect of successful trading. In this episode we discuss The benefits of trading breakout strategies and what makes a good breakout strategy How to build profitable breakout strategies using 4 key components The degradation of strategies over time and how to add new life into old strategies Using filters to improve trading results Adapting strategies to market conditions The best timeframes and markets for breakout strategies Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Murray Ruggiero is the chief systems designer and market analyst at Tuttle Wealth Management, with around 200 million dollars under management. He is one of the world's foremost experts on the use of intermarket and trend analysis in locating and confirming developing price moves in the markets. He is also a speaker, author and has been a contributing editor to Futures magazine since 1994, producing over 180 articles. In this episode we discuss various aspects of system development, including optimization, curve-fitting and creating robust strategies. We also discuss why strategies must have a premise, the importance and applications of intermarket analysis, cycles and a bunch of great questions from the audience. In this episode we discuss Factors to success in system development Why it's important to understand the underlying premise of a system Techniques to reduce or avoid curve-fitting and develop robust strategies Why Intermarket Analysis is so important and how it can be used to create profitable trading strategies How to get started with intermarket analysis and common issues traders face Using cycles to detect market breakouts and other applications PLUS questions from the audience on... How to determine if a strategy has broken down or is just in a normal state of drawdown The relationship between drawdown and time Creating robust strategies and which ones have stood the test of time Performance of Tuttle Wealth Management and the differences between managing money for others and trading your own money Exits and how to choose the correct exit for your entry method Effective uses of AI in trading Regime switching between strategies The future of trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

For those traders looking for an edge in every aspect of trading, today's topic is something that isn't discussed too much but has had a great impact on the 2 guests of this episode. The topic is collaboration in trading and the guests are Michael Cook and Kevin Davey. Both of these guests have appeared on the podcast before, with Michael being a guest on Episode 39 and Kevin being a guest on Episode 5 and Episode 38. Both have extensive trading experience too, successfully trading their own money and others. In this episode they share the impact collaboration has had on their own trading as well as why collaboration is so important, the actual benefits to traders, how to find the right people and tips to maximising effectiveness. In this episode we discuss Why it pays to put the work into strategies other people would find awkward or too difficult Why collaboration is so important in trading The benefits of collaboration and what you could be missing out on The different levels of collaboration and tips to maximising it's effectiveness How to determine if someone may be a good fit for collaboration How to find traders to collaborate with The most important aspects of trading The most common mistake traders make Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Larry Williams has been a guest of the podcast before, sharing insights from 50 years of trading in Episode 20. In 1987 he won the World Cup™ trading championship, turning $10,000 to over $1.1 million in 12 months. He is a published author, with a long list of best-selling books and has also created a number of market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, the Williams Accumulation/Distribution Indicator, COT indices, cycle forecasts, market sentiment and value measures. In this episode we'll be discussing algorithmic forecasting, the methods and applications of forecasting, cycles and seasonality, plus some forecasts for the markets in 2016. In this episode we discuss Why algorithmic forecasting can be so interesting and so challenging Is forecasting just an academic exercise or can it actually be applied to real trading? The difference between Larrys forecasts and others made in the media How past cycles can project what may happen in the future How Larry actually generates forecasts based on past market behaviour Factors that can make forecasts inaccurate and why some factors aren't even considered when forecasting How the forecasting process has changed over the years Forecasts for the Australian and US markets in 2016 Which factors have the best forecasting ability Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

We've been very lucky to have a number of trading champions on the podcast before and this episode we get to talk to another champion trader, Michael Cook, who won the World Cup Trading championships in 2007 (Futures), 2011 (Stocks) and 2014 (Futures). Michael worked in the institutional world for a number of years before leaving behind the banks and hedge funds to trade for himself. In this episode we'll be discussing how to increase returns with the same risk, using the market to determine stop levels, selecting a position sizing algorithm and the role of discretion in systematic trading. In this episode we discuss How a short statement from Larry Williams influenced Michael to enter the World Cup Trading championship and what we can all learn from it How Michael won the trading championship multiple times and the unexpected benefit of winning A method to increasing returns for a given risk Why market related stops make more sense that a fixed cash amount Position sizing algorithms and why fixed fractional is often the best approach How to recognise conditions that could cause a strategy to fail before it actually does Hard and soft stops, and how to consider the risk of each The role of discretion in systematic trading Occasions where it make sense to override trading strategies - being more trader than system purist Where to find trading ideas Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Happy New Year! The start of a new year is typically the time when people review their accomplishments and progress for the past year, and make fresh plans for the year to come. I thought it might be good to do a quick bonus episode with someone who knows all about setting goals and achieving them. That person is World Cup trading champion Kevin Davey, who was a guest of the show on Episode 5. Now this is a bonus episode so it's a really short one but it's full of great information, including the importance of goals in trading, common mistakes traders make when setting goals and the process to creating good goals. Whether you're an accomplished goal setter or just starting out I think you'll find value in what Kevin has to share with us today so I hope you enjoy this short chat on goals in trading. In this episode we discuss Why it's important to have goals in trading The impacts of not having goals can have on trading success The types of goals appropriate to traders Common mistakes traders make when setting goals An easy way to create good goals How to determine if your performance goals are attainable Why some traders get hung up on goals that aren't relevant Why you need a time limit on your goals Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In this episode we're discussing the results of a quantitative study on stop losses completed by Cesar Alvarez of Alvarez Quant Trading. Cesar was also a guest of the show way back in Episode 3. Cesar was director of research for Connors Research for almost 9 years, developing quantitative trading models for individuals, prop traders and hedge funds. In this episode he's going to share the results of a quantitative study on stop losses, also testing out some common pieces of trading advice to see if they're actually true. Stops can have such a huge impact on trading results so I'm sure traders of all levels will find this research invaluable. We will be discussing backtesting results and some charts. We'll be explaining them for those who are listening along but if you'd also like to see the results while we discuss them, you can download a copy or even watch as a video in the show notes page at bettersystemtrader.com/37. I hope you enjoy Cesars discussion of 'Stops - the Good, the Bad and the Ugly'. In this episode we discuss Different types of stops, their application and performance results Percentage vs Volatility based stops Intraday vs End of Day stops Trailing stops vs Targets Some common trading statements that are often assumed to be true and the results of testing them - do they hold up? The levels of Stop knowledge, which level are you at? Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Creating robust trading strategies can be a difficult task, sometimes taking months or even years to generate something you find acceptable. Even then, once you start trading it live there is no guarantee it'll work in the future. With strategy creation being such an involved process at times, how would you like it if you could just tell the computer the results you wanted and let it figure out the trading rules? Is it actually possible to create robust trading strategies that way? In this episode Michael Bryant from Adaptrade talks to us about automatic code generation, methods to exploit trade dependency and techniques to trade the equity curve. Michael has been trading the markets since 1994, providing trading systems for the futures markets and even managing money as a CTA. He is founder of Adaptrade, a company which provides innovative software tools for individual and professional traders. In this episode we discuss The traditional approach to creating trading systems and issues caused by this approach Potential areas of improvement in traditional approaches to system development Evolution of the strategy creation process Genetic programming and optimisation and it's use in trading strategy creation The advantages of automatic code generation Measuring and reducing over-fitting when using genetic optimisation techniques Addressing concerns with removing human logic from the strategy development process Degrees of freedom and the impact if can have on strategy results Trade dependency, how to detect it and methods to exploit it Trading the equity curve based on trade dependency and trading style Which stage of the strategy creation process to include position sizing Common position sizing mistakes traders make Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Andrew Gibbs has been involved in the financial markets since 2001 and is the founder and CEO of Halifax New Zealand. Andrew has extensive experience in all forms of equity and derivative contracts, managing millions of dollars and trading a number of markets around the world. In this episode we discuss volatility and methods to trading the VIX plus the benefits and methods of including fundamental data in technical quant models. Topics discussed Instruments you can use to trade volatility and the benefits or disadvantages of each What makes the VIX attractive to trade and why it often trends over time The types of trading styles that suit the VIX The dangers of trading volatility products Seasonality in the VIX How to get started building volatility trading models Fundamental data and the types of fundamental datasets that work well in quantitative models Why some fundamentals work better than others The frequency of fundamental data release and how that dictates trading model style How to account for revisions to data The impact of including fundamental data can have on trading results Technical vs Fundamental data and which tends to be more robust Issues with fundamental data and company reporting accuracy How to reduce the chances of investing in a company that is likely to go bust Combining fundamentals and technical data and how to test How to get started building fundamental quant models Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Jay Kaeppel has over 25 years experience in the financial markets. He has worked as the Head Trader for a CTA and published a number of popular trading books on Futures, Options and Stock Market Seasonality. He also spent a number of years writing a weekly column titled "Kaeppel's Corner" and publishes on his blog "Jay On The Markets". He is now Portfolio Manager for Alpha Investment Management, offering strategies such as the 'Alpha Multi-Income Strategy' to investors. In this episode we discuss a number of seasonal tendencies, how they can be integrated into a trading model, the applications of the Known Trend Index and the reasons why most traders fail. Topics discussed The Santa Claus rally - what it is and how to trade it How to use seasonality to complement other models Seasonality tendencies around holidays Monthly seasonal tendencies and a simple monthly seasonal system that vastly outperforms stock index returns Boiling down the trading process into 4 simple words Using leveraged ETFs for seasonality trades The worst performing month of the year (it's not October) Converting seasonal tendencies into a trading model A simple seasonal sector system that takes only 6 trades per year Diversification vs Specialisation and the impact it can have on trading and drawdowns Are seasonal trading strategies just data mining? The Known Trends Index (KTI) and how it can be used in trading Why most traders fail Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Laurent Bernut was a systematic short seller with Fidelity for 8 years. His mandate was to underperform the longest bear market in modern history: Japanese equities. Prior to that, he worked in the Hedge Fund world for 5 years. He now runs an automated Forex strategy and travels the world with his family. In this episode we talk all about Short selling, creating shorting strategies, the challenges of implementation and how to manage risk. We also discuss the importance of exits, insights into Bear markets, autotrading Forex and why complexity is a form of laziness. Topics discussed The benefits of developing a strategy on the short side first and why long/short symmetry is important Challenges with executing short systems and solutions The most important aspect to worry about when short selling Finding short candidates in a Bull market and why you should ignore absolute performance Tips to creating profitable short strategies The importance of exits and how to test them Insights into Bear markets The 3 wrong questions to ask during a Bear market and the 3 best ones to ask A simple method to identifying Bull and Bear markets Why complexity is a form of laziness Using MT4 as a professional trading platform Why being disciplined is a myth The type of strategies that work in the Forex markets The Common sense Ratio and why it's more robust than the Sharpe ratio Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Thomas Stridsman has over 20 years experience in the financial markets. He was an editor for Futures magazine and published two books on trading system development and money management. He is now a fund manager at Alfakraft, specialising in short-term trend following strategies with a focus on dynamic size allocation and risk distribution algorithms. In this episode we discuss strategy testing, why you need to normalise metrics, tips to creating robust strategies and why he doesn't test entries and exits any more (and what to focus on instead). Topics discussed The differences between short term trend following and long term trend following Why backtesting metrics should be normalised to give an accurate picture of performance Why you should look to restrict the number of consecutive winners and losers The difference between a good model and a profitable one Tips to creating robust systems Trading costs and when to include them in testing Using standard deviation to determine system robustness How his systems development approach has changed over the years The one particular insight that propelled his trading forward Applying Optimalf to position sizing The future of trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Greg Morris was Sr. Vice President, Chief Technical Analyst, and Chairman of the Investment Committee for Stadion Money Management, overseeing the management of over $5.5 billion in assets. He has been featured in the media a number of times, being invited to lecture about technical market analysis around the world. He is currently semi-retired, serving as a consultant and working on a few projects, including golf. In this episode we talk about the real definition of risk and how to manage it, the applications of market breadth and how the 'Weight of the evidence' concept can be used in trading. Topics discussed Why defining risk as volatility isn't accurate and what risk really is Can diversification actually be used to minimise risk? Why Rebalancing doesn't make sense The 'Weight of the evidence' concept and how it can be used in trading Why it's important to test indicators over non-standard ranges What market breadth measures can reveal in market tops Different types of breadth and their applications in Trend Following Selecting indicators and why diversification of indicators is vital How often should you tweak your model if something isn't working so well The current state of the market Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

A couple of weeks ago I went back through all the guests we've had on the show so far and realised how very fortunate we've been to have so many fantastic guests on the show, sharing their knowledge and experience, some of them with more than 50 years of trading experience! To be honest, I'd actually forgotten some of the topics we'd covered so far and going back through them was an excellent reminder of all the valuable information the guests had shared, so for Episode 30 I thought it might be a good idea to revisit some of the highlights from the earlier episodes so that those that haven't heard them will go and listen to them, and those who have already listened may get some value out of hearing the highlights again. I know when I went back through them it reminded me of some things that I wanted to test or investigate further, and I really found it a valuable exercise so I hope you do too. This episode will cover some of the highlights from episodes 1 to 20; some of my favourites and some of yours. Topics discussed How to find new trading ideas every day Using optimisation to understand market behaviour, not to find the optimal parameters How the level of market noise can indicate the type of strategy to trade Tips to creating robust models Avoiding over-optimised trading strategies Combining multiple conditions or strategies into an ensemble system Why simple systems are better than complex ones How market timing can improve strategy performance The concept of conditional trading and why you need to consider market context Testing the effectiveness of entry and exit rules The type of strategies that should have stops and when stops don't make sense Factors to consider when choosing a position sizing strategy How dual momentum can produce profits and protect in a downturn Trading the equity curve to protect capital Why traders should focus on process and not outcome Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Alan Clement is a Certified Financial Technician, full time independent trader, quantitative trading systems designer and private investment consultant. He is also a councillor with the Australian Technical Analysts Association and contributes to the technical analysis articles for Fairfax press. In this episode we talk about Rotational trading systems, the impact of stops on results and alternatives to managing risk. Alan also shares some interesting tips into measuring system health, dynamic position sizing and anticipating trading signals. Topics discussed Rotational trading - entries, exits and managing risk Methods to measure momentum in trend following strategies The impact of stop losses in trading systems and alternatives to managing risk Tips to position sizing without a stop loss Using dynamic profit targets to reduce risk and increase return Why drawdown is not a single number Using Monte Carlo analysis as a dynamic position sizing tool Methods to determining current system health Factors to consider when creating a system health metric Choosing the right Backtesting metrics and using them in live trading Five factors to consider when choosing a strategy to suit your personality Anticipating trading signals, the benefits, challenges and solutions How to anticipate trading signals without reverse-engineering indicators Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

David Aronson is a pioneer in machine learning and nonlinear trading system development and signal boosting/filtering. He is author of "Evidence Based Technical Analysis" and his most recent book "Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments" is an in-depth look at developing predictive-model-based trading systems. He was also an adjunct professor of finance, regularly teaching MBA and financial engineering students a graduate-level course in technical analysis, data mining and predictive analytics. In this episode David shares research into the effectiveness of indicators to identify Bull and Bear markets; he's tested a large number of indicators and combinations with some interesting results! We also discuss issues with data mining, conditions where traditional methods of measuring data mining levels can be problematic and then finish up with the future state of Technical Analysis. Topics discussed What the popular Golden and Death Cross can tell us about the probability of a Bull or Bear market Using the RSI indicator to determine market state Methods to reduce the lag the 50/200 Moving Average crossover experiences Using ADX and Price Variance to identify Bull and Bear markets Creating indicators based on the value of other indicators Modifying the McClelland Summation Index indicator to identify market states How datamining increases the chance of good luck in the results Why the White's Reality Check and Monte Carlo Permutation methods breakdown using certain data-mining approaches How the role of Technical Analysis could change over the next 10 years New developments in Machine Learning which may see the end of the role of technicians Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Dr. Gary Dayton has been an active trader since 1999 and is President of a consulting firm that specializes in developing "peak" performance in traders. His approach to trading psychology is very different to the traditional approaches used by other trading coaches, introducing traders to the practise of mindfulness to not only overcome fear and other unwanted trading emotions but to develop the concentration and focus needed to trade successfully. In this episode we discuss why traditional approaches to controlling emotions don't work, the role of emotions in trading and how mindfulness can improve trading performance. He also shares some tips on how to get started practising mindfulness, the benefits it can have outside of trading and how the approach of Mental Parking can increase focus. Topics discussed Comparisons of sports and trading performance Traditional approaches to handling emotions in trading and why they don't work Why it's impossible to suppress your emotions Landing a plane in the Hudson River and what the Captains response teaches us about trading The role of emotions and how experienced traders actually leverage emotions in trading The concept of Mindfulness and the benefits to traders How to use Mindfulness when trading The evidence that Mindfulness can improve trading performance and how it impacts the brain How to get started practising Mindfulness How to use Mental Parking to increase focus and productivity How exercise can improve mental and trading performance Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Robert Carver is an independent systematic trader who spent more than seven years working for one of the worlds largest systematic hedge funds. In this episode we discuss trading rules, what makes a good trading rule and the advantages of using continuous rather than binary rules. He also shares insights into over-fitting and the challenges of walk-forward testing that can make it impractical. Topics discussed What makes a good trading rule The advantages of simple rules Why only some trading rules are profitable Walk-forward testing and some of the challenges that can make it impractical How much data you actually need to determine if a trading rule is better than another Why choosing the optimal values during a walk-forward test is not the best approach and some alternatives Weighting trading rules Steps to avoid over-fitting Should trading rules be adjusted for individual instruments? Continuous trading rules compared to binary rules The applications and advantages of continuous trading rules What makes a good systematic trader The issues that overconfidence creates in trading Two aspects of institutional trading that most retail traders could apply to their own trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is a trader, psychologist and trading coach who has been actively involved in the financial markets since the late 1970s. He is the author of a number of popular trading performance books and consults for hedge funds, investment banks and proprietary trading groups. Brett has an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge publishing measures and strategies on his popular TraderFeed blog. He is also a regular contributor to Forbes. In this episode we discuss creativity, static thinking and why it's important to have unique ideas for trading success. We also cover tips to increasing our creativity, why traditional trading rules need to be updated, the challenges of daytrading and how to overcome them. Topics discussed Three important components of successful traders Why the traditional rules of trading need to be updated Why traders get stuck in static thinking and need to be more like entreprenuers The two different types of trading brains and how understand which we are can improve our results How creativity can be used in the strategy research process Why we come up with ideas at seemingly random times and how that can be harnessed to improve our trading The two stages of creativity and how traders are hurting their performance by neglecting the second stage How just immersing ourselves in the market without stepping back can be harming our performance Improving creativity through lifestyle Why unstructured free time away from the markets can improve your trading Techniques to turn creativity into a habit How Brett identified his strengths and used those to dictate his trading style The challenges of daytrading and how to approach them Analysing successful trades to improve performance Why we need to have something more important in your life than trading PLUS listener questions on: Applications of diffusion indices Formalising edges and the impact of market regimes on edge performance How traders can follow their rules about stops and targets The psychological differences between systematic and discretionary trading The validity of Acceptance Commitment Therapy (ACT) in trading Handling drawdowns and turning it into a constructive experience How to move from retail trader to full-time/pro Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In this episode Dr Van Tharp talks about beliefs and their impact on trading, the qualities of successful traders, adapting trading to market types, position sizing, trading mistakes and overcoming fear, perfectionism and impatience. Topics discussed How Van got started in the markets and the issues he faced initially The main reasons the majority of trades are unsuccessful How traders can identify the type of strategies that suits them What it means to trade your beliefs in the market How to assess whether your beliefs are useful or limiting The real importance of psychology in trading Your collection of parts and how they interact The process of transformation in a trader Qualities of losing traders and how to test yourself for them The impact mistakes could be having on your results without even knowing How to cope with larger trade sizes as your account grows PLUS listener questions on: Using position sizing to meet your objectives The 6 market types, how to measure them and how to apply it to your trading How to find positive expectancy systems Developing patience when in a trade Trading in short timeframes How to address issues with perfectionism Systematic vs Discretionary trading Overcoming fear of pulling the trigger Handling drawdowns Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Michael Himmel is a Founding Partner, Portfolio Manager and Director of AI Research for Essex Asset Management. He has been actively trading and designing systems since the 1980s, managing the No.1 Global Macro Hedge fund in the world in 1999. He now uses large doses of AI and Machine Learning in his current practice. In this week's episode we discuss Artificial Intelligence, the challenges and applications of AI in trading, criticisms of Machine Learning, event studies and the importance of selecting datasets. He also shares insights from starting out as a runner for some of the biggest players in the 1980s, to managing the no. 1 global macro hedge fund in 1999 to using AI in his practise today. Even if you're not into AI and machine learning, the stories and insights Michael shares are invaluable. Topics discussed Lessons from running orders for some of the big players in the 1980s Transitioning from discretionary to systematic trading The challenges of applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning in the 1990s How changes in technology have made AI in trading available to almost every body How Hedge Fund Lambeth Capital achieved a 260% return in 1999 The impact September 2001 events had on hedge fund operations The applications of AI in non-finance industries The three divisions of AI The relationship between machine learning and AI Trading applications of AI How to decide which datasets should be used to avoid data mining Addressing the criticisms of machine learning The challenges of using AI for longer timeframes and is it the right tool for the job? Event studies in trading The future of trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Robert Bubalovski is the Managing Director and Head Trader at TradeView investments, a privately held proprietary trading firm located in Melbourne, Australia. Since 1996 Robert has been actively involved in the financial markets and trading, in 2012 he decided to set up his own Proprietary Trading Firm to concentrate on his own trading strategies. His team of professional proprietary traders specialize in the trading of Equities, Futures, Options, FX and Money Markets across multiple exchanges around the globe and around the clock. In this weeks episode we discuss prop trading, the challenges and lessons from beginner trader to starting an investment firm and what it takes to be a successful trader. We also discuss arbitrage and pairs trading strategies, statistical rather than indicator-based trading and the importance of simplicity. Topics discussed The pros and cons of prop trading The progress of a prop trader How long it takes to become a successful prop trader The attributes of successful traders Advice for those wanted to get started in prop trading Challenges starting out and the lessons learnt Arbitrage and Pairs trading Index arbitrage Selecting stock pairs for arbitrage opportunities Getting started in pairs trading/arbitrage The benefits of pair trading indices vs stocks The dangers of pairs trading in stocks Why keeping strategies simple is so important The main attributes a trader needs to be successful How to increase trade size and be comfortable with it The advantages of strategies based on statistics rather than indicators Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Tim Rea is a proprietary trader, trading his own money with well over 100 automated systems across 25 different Futures contracts. He is a past winner of the World Cup trading championship, along with being a CTA and broker but gave that away to focus on trading his own money. In this weeks episode we discuss various aspects of trading multiple strategies, including monitoring performance, money management, correlation, technology and trading in markets not in your timezone. We also discuss the impacts of the MFGlobal and PFG collapses and how Tim overcame the heavy losses to continue trading. Topics discussed How poor experiences investing with others drove Tim to figure it out for himself Becoming a systems vendor, CTA and broker and why he then left it all behind to just trade his own money How shorter term trading can increase confidence in a system How many strategies he's currently trading (hint: its more than 100!) Keeping track of the performance of multiple strategies Why you shouldn't just stop trading a system when the drawdown is larger than it has been historically Why you should try to understand the underlying reasons for strategy drawdown Considerations when adding more strategies to a portfolio Managing correlations with multiple strategies Position sizing when trading multiple systems The benefits of trading a portfolio vs trading an individual method How to manage trading in markets not in your timezone The impact of the PFG collapse and how Tim overcame the heavy losses Lessons learnt from dealing with MFGlobal and PFG collapses How to manage your trading account to minimise risk of loss in another collapse The benefits of trading Forex How Tim won the World Cup Trading championship trading just the EURUSD The importance of vision in your trading business Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In this weeks episode Larry Williams talks about conditional trading, understanding what drives prices, the misuse of indicators and how to apply them correctly. We also discuss cycles, forecasting markets, what to look for in market tops plus loads of listener questions where Larry shares tips and insights from 50 years of trading. Topics discussed What it means to be a conditional trader Why buy and sell signals need to be analysed in the context of market conditions Fundamental factors that drives markets Interpreting the COT reports correctly The buying differences between retail and commercial traders and how it can indicate future market direction Why you should approach trading like a combination lock Coming up with unique indicator ideas The mis-use of indicators and how to use them correctly Trading styles of successful traders Forecasting markets based on technical factors Characteristics of stock market tops and bottoms The fundamentals to watch during market tops Listener questions Issues with the Forex market Trading prices patterns, do they still work and are they scalable Why short term price patterns work What happened in 2002 and why you need to consider that when backtesting Will trend trading always be effective? How many positions to trade at one time Money management tips for those who aren't into heavy maths Choosing the best markets to trade Favourite Larry Williams indicator What keeps Larry motivated to trade after 50 years What drives peak performance (it's not money…) The key component that really drove Larry to becoming a consistently successful trader How Larry lasted so long in the industry How to overcome emotions when entering or holding trades Larry's biggest contribution to the trading industry Why Larrys strategies have lasted the test of time Common traits against the most successful traders The trading model that's worked for Larry for over 50 years Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Scott Andrews 'The Gap Guy' shares his expertise in gaps, why they work, what factors to take into account when trading gaps and what to avoid. We also discuss gap zones, when to fade and when to follow and calculating stops and targets. PLUS, for those that aren't into Gap trading, we cover some important concepts that can impact all styles of trading, include one concept called 'Ensemble Systems' which may just change the way you look at trading strategies. Topics discussed Why it's important to trade a style that matches your own strengths rather than follow someone else Why gap trading works Markets where gaps work best and those that don't The best type of stocks to trades gaps and the stocks to avoid The benefits of trading gaps in indices vs stocks The 3 market conditions to look at when analysing a gap How seasonality impacts gap trading Signs of gaps to avoid Using ATR to determine the probability of gap size closing Gap zones and how the location of the gap can provide useful information The worst performing gap zone The psychology of certain gap zones and why some work better than others When to fade the gap and when to follow it Calculating stop and profit levels based on gap characteristics and market conditions How to determine if a target should be a full gap close, partial gap close or an extended target past gap close The impact of QE on gaps How to combine systems into Ensemble Systems for an interesting view on trading strategies Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Jerry Parker, Turtle Trader and CTA, talks about trend following, how to approach wins and losses, dealing with drawdowns, managing correlations in asset classes and how changing market dynamics have impacted trend following and the solution. He also gives us some tips on systematic trading including how he trades without relying on optimal values of the past. Topics discussed What types of characteristics Dennis and Eckardt were looking for in the Turtle traders program How the Turtles were taught to approach losses Common traits amongst the most successful Turtles The hardest part of trading as a Turtle How Jerry overcame the fear of taking trades The biggest lesson being a Turtle What Jerry did with the Turtles approach after the program ended The impact managing other peoples money can have on trading The key factors that make trend following work Managing correlations between asset classes Long-term vs short-term trend following Dealing with drawdowns How changes market dynamics have impacted trend following and solutions How to diversify to lessen the impact of any one parameter How to trade without relying on optimal values of the past PLUS questions submitted by listeners: The difficulties in knowing when to adjust strategy parameters Adjusting your system for whipsaws Tips to avoid data mining Do the Turtles systems still work in the todays markets? Are there any markets where the strategies no longer work? Short versus Long trades Overcoming emotions in trading Biggest mistakes and the lessons learnt What todays Turtle program would look like Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

World Cup Trading champion Andrea Unger discusses how to create robust strategies, the role of indicators in trading, principles to strategy creation, Forex trading strategies and optimising to understand market behaviour. Topics discussed The strategies and position sizing Andrea used to win the world cup trading championship 4 times The role of luck in trading Controlling risk when trading multiple strategies Where to find trading ideas The principles Andrea uses in the Forex and Futures markets to develop profitable strategies The role of indicators in strategy development Matching strategy type to market characteristics Why you should analyse your biggest winners as well as your biggest losers Forex trading tips and changes in the Forex market Using longer timeframes to filter trades in shorter timeframes When to optimise or tweak a strategy and how to ensure you don't over-optimise The drawbacks of trend following and the solution Tips to handling drawdowns Intraday vs End-of-day trading The key to trading success. Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Stuart McPhee discusses the common mistakes traders make, the single biggest factor to trading success, the counter-intuitive side to trading and tips to improving trading discipline. Topics discussed Why trading can be simple but not easy Common mistakes traders make Factors to consider when choosing a trading strategy that suits you Common Money Management mistakes The single biggest factor to trading success Common mindset issues traders experience Tips to improving discipline and changing trading behaviour How the Petronas towers can be applied to trading The counter-intuitive side to trading The Chinese Bamboo story Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Performance coach Rande Howell discusses the most common issues limiting trader performance, the impact of emotions on trading, the importance of managing process not outcome and tips on changing our physiology to improve performance. Topics discussed The most common issues impacting trader performance What causes hesitation when taking trades How to calm the emotions when trading An easy way to monitor changes in emotions The impact of breathing on emotions and trading A simple trick to disrupt fear Patience and boredom in trading and how to overcome them Are you an African Lion or an American Cougar when trading? Personal traits that don't align well with trading success How successful traders handle drawdowns The stage in a traders journey where performance coaching provides the most value What successful traders need to watch out for to continue operating at their peak How overconfidence and euphoria can destroy your trading Tips for getting prepared for the trading session Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Andreas Clenow is a hedge fund manager who specialises in developing and trading quantitative strategies across all asset classes. Before joining the hedge fund world by establishing his own hedge fund he maintained Global Head positions at Reuters and Equis International. He is the author of two books, the first being international best seller 'Following the Trend' and the second 'Stocks on the Move' has just been released. In this episode Andreas talks about trend following in stocks, why traditional approaches don't work and what you can do to account for this. We also talk about trading concepts, cash vs risk allocation, position rebalancing and building robust strategies. Topics discussed The origins of trend following and why a traditional trend following approach doesn't work on stocks Why it's a bad idea to think in terms of cash allocation and the solution Position rebalancing, why, how and when How hedge funds look at position sizing compared to retail traders Why pyramiding positions doesn't make sense How to get a more realistic understanding of performance results than just a backtest report can provide How a random number generator can beat the mutual funds How to ensure you strategies are robust and not curve-fit Handling large losses or periods of drawdown The role of critical thinking in trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Dr Ernest Chan talks about many aspects of quantitative trading, including how market crises impact momentum strategies and how to manage the impacts, when to use stop-losses and when they don't make sense, automating trading, managing funds in a portfolio of strategies and a simple money management approach which aims to limit drawdowns while maximising returns. Topics discussed Where to find trading ideas The first aspect of a market to identify before building a strategy for it Momentum crashes and the performance of momentum strategies after a financial crisis How to manage the times when momentum strategies aren't working When stop losses should be used and when they don't make sense How to limit drawdowns while maximising growth Factors to consider when automating your trading How independent traders can avoid competing with the big trading firms When you need to worry about market microstructure and when it doesn't matter Managing funds for a multi-strategy portfolio The hardest part of trading Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Ralph Vince talks about position sizing, how to choose a position sizing model that suits you, optimalf, the curve and how it can be used for maximum growth and other applications. The risk of multiple strategies in a portfolio and how to manage it, dynamic position sizing, martingale strategies and how Ralphs views on money management has changed in the past 25 years. Topics discussed The single biggest factor in trading which is also probably the most overlooked The most important factor when determine position sizing How horizon impacts position sizing How Optimalf is only one point on the curve and other critical points you also need to consider Traversing the curve and how it applies to your trading criterion How to manage a portfolio of multiple strategies The risk of multiple strategies and how to manage it Trading the equity curve Dynamic position sizing When Martingale strategies make sense How Ralphs views on money-management have changed in the past 25 years Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Perry Kaufman discusses market noise, the impact it has on trading styles and how it can be used to determine which strategies suit a particular market. We also talk about price shocks and how to mitigate their effects, how to use volatility in your favour, volatility parity for position sizing, the information ratio for strategy performance and some strategy ideas you can test yourself. Topics discussed How market noise impacts trend following and mean reversion The effects of money flow during a crisis The types of strategies that work best in new markets and why How the efficiency ratio can be used to determine the best type of strategy for a market The best markets for trend following and mean reversion What strategy style to choose if you're just starting out Using Volatility Parity for position sizing Impacts and dangers of price shocks on backtesting and how to handle them Mitigating the risk of price shocks Using the Information Ratio to measure strategy performance and detect possible over-fitting The effects of volatility on strategies and how to use volatility in your favour Fractal Geometry High Frequency Trading And some strategy ideas you can test Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Gary Antonacci discuss all things momentum; the different types of momentum and their individual applications, how they can be combined, how momentum can be refined, the benefits and challenges of momentum, why momentum works and much more. Topics discussed The different types of momentum and their use How to combine them for better performance How Dual Momentum protects in a bear market The benefits of Dual Momentum The impact of lookback periods and rebalancing Using Dual Momentum with other asset classes Reducing the impact of mean reversion in stocks Why momentum works and is likely to continue working in the future Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Gary Stone discusses market timing, why it works, the impact it can have on strategy performance and simple methods you can test for yourself. We also discuss the misinformation published by some fund managers and how you can outperform the majority of professional fund managers using very simple techniques. Gary also explains the importance of perspective and how it can improve your trading and we get some tips on one of the most important components to executing your trading plan correctly. Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Rob Hanna tells us how he comes up with so many trading ideas, the type of market behaviours to look out for and his favourite piece of information in a backtest report (clue: it's not a number). He also discusses how a confluence of ideas can improve trading results, how to look at market behaviour from different angles, some simple market timing techniques, adjusting strategies based on market conditions plus loads of ideas we can test ourselves. Topics discussed Where to find trading ideas The types of market behaviour to look for and what to ignore The most important piece of information in a backtest – it's not a number! How to handle an edge that is performing poorly How a confluence of ideas can improve trading results Looking at market behaviour from different angles Simple market timing techniques Where to find the biggest edges Adjusting strategies based on market conditions How Fed meeting days impact the market and how it can be traded PLUS loads of ideas to test! Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In our chat with Dr Howard Bandy we talk about major changes occurring in the fields of trading system development, trade management and technical analysis. We also discuss why trading is becoming increasingly difficult, what causes trading systems to experience periods of poor performance, how to identify and manage a trading system when it is out of sync with the market and the 2 most important skills in system development. Topics discussed The major changes occurring in the fields of trading system development, trade management and technical analysis Why trading is becoming increasingly hard How to compete with the professionals What causes trading systems to experience periods of poor performance How to identify and manage a trading system when it is out of sync with the market The shift towards machine learning and pattern recognition The importance of data mining in the system development process The 2 most important skills in system development Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Kevin Davey talks about how we went about winning the trading competition, the type of systems you want for the future, some very important aspects of system development that will cost you money if you ignore them, what you need to do before you start trading a strategy and what skills you need to be a good system developer. He offers some really valuable insights and provides an excellent process to system development so you do not want to miss it. Topics discussed: Why goals and objectives are so important in trading How to use "the monkey test" to validate entries and exits Which type of systems adapt better to future conditions Why walk forward testing is so important and when you shouldn't use it How often should you re-optimise your systems Why ignoring Monte Carlo testing can cost you money Why you shouldn't start trading a strategy immediately after you've finished testing it How to eliminate bad systems before risking your money on them Adding or removing systems from your portfolio Why you need to determine when you will stop trading a system BEFORE you start trading it What skills are required to be a good system developer Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In our chat with Nick we discuss system design, the best type of systems to trade, how observations can lead to better strategies, the best way to handle a bear market, measuring system performance, survivorship bias and the difference between successful traders and everyone else. Topics discussed: The trading style most people should try first Systematic ways to determine a trend Why simple systems are the best Why broker consensus is a poor indicator The best type of stocks for trend following strategies What you need to know about a system to be able to handle the drawdown How observations can lead to better strategies Why buy and hold offers average returns and the best approach to handling a bear market How trading can take less than 5 minutes per day Measuring the performance of a system The difference between very successful traders and everyone else The types of survivorship bias that could be ruining your backtest results The warning signs of over-optimisation Coping with drawdown and personal doubts 2 basic strategies you can start testing today! Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In our chat with Cesar Alvarez we talk about trading ideas, key concepts and pitfalls of backtesting, the impact of stops on returns, market timing, over-optimisation, drawdown and using multiple strategies in a portfolio. Topics discussed: Where to find trading ideas Why you should test all of your ideas, even if you think they won't work Pitfalls of backtesting you need to look out for How to identify coding errors in backtesting Some clues that indicate you may have over-optimised a strategy Issues with splitting data into in-sample and out-of-sample portions The impact of stops on returns Handling a 50% overnight drop in a stock price Finding your personal drawdown tolerance How market timing can impact a strategy Why you need multiple strategies in a portfolio Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In this episode with Brent Penfold we cover fundamental topics that impacts traders of all levels, from beginner to advanced. We talk about some of the psychological issues traders face, the principles all traders need to accept to be successful, that elusive Holy Grail of trading and an extremely important mathematical concept that can identify if you're going to blow up your account, so don't miss that. The guest also provides actionable tips and tricks to overcome these issues along with a simple method to determine if a strategy is broken, which could save you lots of money and stress. Topics discussed: How to trades 24 markets actively and be finished by 9:30am The simple reason why most traders fail The principles all traders need to accept to be successful The one mathematical measure that can tell if you'll blow up your account - don't miss this! The Holy Grail The most important aspect of trading How to remove hope from your trading How to combat greed The impact fear can have on your trading and a hot tip to overcome it A simple method to determine if your strategy is broken, this tip could save you loads of money! Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Welcome to Better System Trader, the podcast where expert traders share tips, tricks and actionable insights to improve trading results. In this episode I introduce Better System Trader, what its all about, what to expect, and a little background on myself. Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.