Was it a Mistake to Defund the Police? (Asks Local Idiot) The Free Money Glitch to High Crime

In this gripping episode, we explore the rising crime rates in major U.S. cities, focusing on new crime trends and their impact on local businesses. We dive into the implications of advanced surveillance technologies like Amazon Go's 'Just Walk Out Technology,' and discuss shocking incidents such as the TikTok 'Chase Money Glitch.' Examining societal perceptions and police responses, we debate tough-on-crime policies, including drastic measures like mass incarceration and execution. Additionally, we explore the ethics of creating penal colonies for repeat offenders and the distinction between intellectual property and personal crimes, ending on a lighter interaction through social media. Join us for an in-depth analysis of crime, justice, and societal responses. ​

[00:00:00]

Speaker 2: Hello, Simone. Today we are going to be talking about an interesting topic. One is new forms of crime and crime waves that are hitting major American cities at the moment and transforming the nature of business in these cities.

Speaker 6: If you could walk into a store, grab what you want, and just go. What would shopping look like?

Speaker 7: Oh my god! Call the police!

Speaker 6: Welcome to Amazon Go. We call it Just Walk Out Technology. Piece

Speaker 8: of s**t. I'll be overdosed.

Speaker 2: recently. There was a TikTok trend. . That was called the, the chase money glitch.

Speaker 20: Twins, Twins, I'm not even gonna lie. I'm not even supposed to condone this type of behavior due to the direction that I'm trying to project my life in. But that Chase Bait Plate looking too sweet right now, Twins. No cap. I can just hit one Chase Bait Plate.

Speaker 18: The f**k man? They really told me to tap in next day I was supposed to [00:01:00] clear look at my account yo

Speaker 24: Cause I have 30, 000 in credit card debt. When they call, I tell them I can't pay it back yet. Credit card debt

Speaker 3: I'm so excited about this.

Speaker 2: is despite what people think there is actually pretty strong evidence that crime in the current day and age is at one of its highest levels in human history.

Speaker: That's meaningful because normally the trend is, oh, you watch the news, you think crime is so bad when really crime has never been lower and violence has never been lower.

Speaker 2: If you crime is going down. Just to quickly know where this number comes from. Specifically, what they do at is they correlate crime rates across cultures with homicide rates, which are much easier to track in absolute amounts, right? Because many

Speaker: people have things stolen from them and just never report it or even that reporting just gets lost.

And so it's not good. And then what they

Speaker 2: do is they correlate the homicide rates. with [00:02:00] correcting for survival rates due to advances in medical technology. And when you correct for that, what looks like a dropping crime rate is actually a quickly rising crime rate,

Speaker: right? Because the issue is that in what really we were looking at was, Oh, our hospitals have gotten a lot better.

It's not crime has gone down. It's that now when you get shot, you're more likely to live, which is

Speaker 2: nice. I guess. I'd also be going over a phenomenon where police have basically given up, or it looks like from the data, people are just not being convicted anymore. Can you blame them? Also, a lot of people are getting elected at all.

I mean, it's, it's such a thankless job today, but let's get into the data. Cause this is going to be a very data heavy episode and some of the individual claims here,

Would you like to know more?

Speaker 2: Well, the statistic I wanted to find that I just thought was absolutely insane and I'm going to find it somewhere is that in NYC, your average retail store is being robbed on average once a day.

Okay. So I decided to do the math on this. [00:03:00] Since 2021 full year numbers of shoplifting incidents have escalated up to 59,000. , and that. Represents a nearly 35% increase. So I took this 59,137 number. And then I looked up how many stores are in Manhattan and there are 750, , and that gives us a. Any given store in Manhattan is robbed on average. 79 times per year.

Speaker 2: At this point, but the big thing that's changed recently, and they'll always talk about like, Oh, crime rates are down to where they were before the pandemic, but that's just not true.

Yeah. Actually, robberies have risen 5 percent year over year. As anyone who has been to a place like Manhattan would know, like Manhattan, now every store, everything is locked up, like everywhere you go. CVS in Manhattan recently, Simone.

Speaker: Yeah. Everything is locked up. You have to wait forever to get someone to unlock the shelf door.

To help you, which is very annoying,

Speaker 2: right? And [00:04:00] that now new forms of crime because it's so easy to rob people has started where one form of crime started where, because the New York had these outdoor seating areas for the restaurants during COVID that weren't really part of a restaurant. People would just go up and rob everyone who was sitting at them you know, do a stick up, ask for their wallets, their phones, everything like that.

​

Speaker 2: And now they become more brazen and they're moving into within the swanky parts of New York just going directly into the wealthy restaurants and just robbing everyone in the restaurant. And then driving away and this has become a new type of crime this year that like, I guess people hadn't thought of [00:05:00] doing before, just no,

Speaker: this used to be, this is, I always used to see this as you know, stick them up, you know, you go in and you you point a gun at everyone in a restaurant or something.

There's that famous scene. From I think a Quentin Tarantino movie that it starts with a couple being like,

Speaker 5: No more liquor stores? What have we been talking about? Yeah, no more liquor stores. And if it's not the gooks, it's these old f ing Jews who've owned the store for 15 f ing generations. You've got Grandpa Irving sitting behind the counter with a f ing magnum in his hand. This place? A coffee shop. What's wrong with that? Nobody ever robs restaurants. Why not? Restaurants, you catch with their pants down. They're not expecting to get robbed.

Customers . One minute they're having a Denver omelette, next minute someone's sticking a gun in their face. A lot of people come to our restaurants. Buy the wallets. Pretty smart, huh?

 You, honey bunny. Everybody be cool, this is [00:06:00] a robbery!

Any of you f ing pricks move! And I'll execute every

Speaker: yeah,

Speaker 2: it's a Pulp Fiction.

Speaker: There you go. So I always saw that as like the classic crime, but that never happened. People didn't do this at fancy restaurants. Not historically. You did it at like Yeah, you did it at a diner, but the smart people do it at fancy restaurants.

I'm just glad people have come around. But one Cinematic magic taking place. I mean, and why wouldn't

Speaker 2: these people be doing this? You know, somebody's pointing out in the comments of one of the videos I was watching of this that if you steal less than a thousand dollars a day, you're not going to get jail time in the U.

S., but if you don't pay 500 in taxes to the IRS, you know, your life gets ruined. Yeah. And it, it, it, it, and, and people are like, how, like, If you're from other places in the U S and I might play some video of like how brazenly these robberies are happening now, your initial reaction is like, how are people doing this without fear of being shot?

And it's just, it's Amazon

Speaker: [00:07:00] go.

Speaker 6: If you could walk into a store, grab what you want, and just go. What would shopping look like? Oh my god! Call the police! Welcome to Amazon Go. We call it Just Walk Out Technology. Piece of s**t. I'll be overdosed. Piece of s**t. Take whatever you like. Sometimes when I call 911, nobody answers. No lines, no checkout.

No, seriously. Shop looker? Don't seem to care who's watching once you've got everything you want you can just go Filling bags and backpacks in the middle of the day You can keep going Amazon go Yeah, yeah, yeah morning

Speaker: It's what that internet history just

Speaker 2: grab it and go, [00:08:00] but that's different. So robbing stores is one thing because most stores have a policy that says the employees can get fired for intervening with a robbery for

Speaker: insurance reasons. So, so in other words, Because because the, these larger corporations have insurance policies that basically won't pay out properly if employees intervene, because that can increase liability even more.

They, they, yeah, they have these policies where you can't intervene, which is really hard for employees. Because yeah, like once a day, it's fine, but then when the same person comes in the 15th time and steals another pair of Lulu lemon leggings, are you going

Speaker 2: to talk about this? Because it is actually a very small number of people just doing it over and over and over again.

And, and again, why wouldn't they, there is very little punishment and they're being incentivized to

Speaker: do it effectively. They're being rewarded every time they do it because they get the thing and they don't get caught. Yeah. Well, they don't get apprehended.

Speaker 2: So Asmogold, you know who he is, right?

Speaker: No.

Speaker 2: He's one of the most [00:09:00] famous, like, talk YouTubers.

Fantastic guy. I really love his content. I will go watch other people's videos. I can't wait till he does one of ours. And he was doing one on this crime spree and he was like confused as to how people thought they could get away with this without getting shot. Right. And, and because New York is a concealed carry state.

Speaker: It's a super liberal state. So who's doing it?

Speaker 2: Learned. Yeah. It's concealed carry. Yes, but it's basically impossible to get a concealed carry license. So you have to do like 16 hours of courses. And one person was talking about how they had done the 16 hours of courses, but they were still denied the concealed carry license.

Because they were quote unquote a 25 year old male and able to defend themselves without being

Speaker 3: You go to the office they look you up and down they're like you could cut a b***h like you don't need

Speaker 2: no but hold on this is insane because one it's like yeah but what if the criminal has a gun first of all it's supposed to like Jiu jitsu.

Somebody was a gun. And then two. [00:10:00] Yes. We know what happens in New York. If you, if they're basically saying no, just beat them to death. And it's like, Oh, well, I mean, if you're a white man, you just

Speaker: stand on their neck and they die or something. Isn't that how white people kill people? I don't know.

Speaker 2: No. So there was the incidence of the, the guy who was going around trying to kill people that, that guy in the subways.

Station threatening to kill people, guy up, beating him to death, and then they're like, oh, well I know we said that you're supposed to do this, but he was black and you were white. And that makes him a protected class. So, you know, to jail for life with you. It's, it's absolutely insane how little incentive there is to not do this.

And there's another crazy thing that's going on in New York right now, which is an increase in assaults due to TikTok. And I'll put an article on screen here about this, but there is a, a, a, a, a punching TikToks are now pretty popular.

Speaker 10: I was literally just walking and a man came up

Speaker 11: and

Speaker 10: punched me

Speaker 11: in the face. Stories from New York city women going viral on Tik TOK. I literally [00:11:00] just got punched by some man on the sidewalk. Their videos detailing how they're allegedly getting punched in the face, completely unprovoked. Several women have posted these videos describing similar allegations in just the last week.

Hallie Kate posted about an assault on Monday. She says she had to be treated at a local medical facility for injuries to the left side of her face. Oh my God, it hurts so bad. I can't even talk. Olivia Brand posting updates on her own experience earlier this month after commenters on TikTok started connecting the two cases.

Speaker 10: And like addin like, look, this girl wen

Speaker 11: She was punched in the face by someone she didn't know last September. Broken down by week, misdemeanor assaults are up 10 percent compared to the same period last year.

Speaker 12: What else are we hearing about this one suspect that is in custody tonight?

Speaker 11: . Skyboki Store. He actually is a bit of a fringe political figure, ran for mayor of New York City back in [00:12:00] 2021.

And he has now been charged with this assault for one of these cases.

Speaker: Oh no, this whole thing. I, I mean, This comes up as a thing in the news every now and then where there's like the whatever game where supposedly impressionable teenagers are being Convinced to go out and punch people and then post it on tick tock.

But I, I don't, I don't doubt that it happens. In fact, there's currently a lawsuit against tick tock taking place for a very different dangerous game in which it's called the choking game. You know, you can imagine the asphyxiation game would play here. Where one 10 year old girl actually died doing it of course.

And, and the parent is trying

Speaker 2: game. What is this?

Speaker: Where it shows you how to engage in auto asphyxiation. Yeah. And it's just like, do it. It's on TikTok. So it's fun. So a 10 year old girl did it. I mean, thousands of people did it. She died doing it. The mother is trying to sue TikTok for [00:13:00] serving an algorithm that, that gave that to her which is.

It's like, it's a difficult, like legal

Speaker 2: thing to litigate, but I mean, who knows? Right. But still like how they'll like take down slightly conservative content, but they won't take down content showing kids how to off themselves. I

Speaker 3: mean,

Speaker 2: Like it is wild how bad the, the censorship is these days, but Simone to go further.

Okay. Yes. Before we go further here, if you're, if we go to New York and we go to

Speaker: a fancy restaurant, someone's going to stick us up, then we're going to go outside. Some kid on TikTok is going to punch us and then run away, right?

Speaker 2: That's that's life in New York right now. I mean, we're about to go to DC, so, buckle up.

No if you're, if you're going into this and you're like, well, But black lives matter told me that black people want less cops. So this is probably all a good thing. You know, there's fewer, fewer

Speaker: cops. If you can count it, it's fewer. If it's something like a mass where it's not countable, like water, then it's less.

[00:14:00] Hey!

Speaker 2: Okay. So less cops. Anyway, so there was Simone, I'm not going to fall for your, your erudite grammar. Okay. I speak like a man. Okay. An American. I use whatever word I want. Um, But anyway, so, if you're like, but I was told by black lives matter that, that and you know, there's that, that horrible, like, Cucked comic where it's the individual who got their bike stolen and they're like I was sad because I got my bike stolen But then I was happy thinking that whoever took it probably needed it more than I did Oh, and it's like wow, have you cucked yourself?

And it turns out there's this one like

Speaker: Mexican bike theft Lord That's selling them in bulk across the border. Have you heard of this guy?

Speaker 2: Yeah It's not like a poor individual who took your bike. It's an industrialized stealing ring. Like, how dumb do you have to be to not understand how, like, basic types of thievery work?

Stealing bikes as an individual isn't a good way to [00:15:00] make money. The individual who stole your bike was making minimum wage working for a drug lord, basically. Probably not even making minimum wage, probably being paid in small amounts. In New York?

Speaker: No, no, they can't afford New York minimum wage. Not in this economy.

Speaker 2: Got it, Malcolm. No, no, you're being paid in math.

Another person who famously shared a similar sentiment was the. Celebrity Seth Rogen.

Speaker 13: Dude, I've lived here for over 20 years. You're nuts. Uh huh. It's lovely here. Don't leave anything valuable in it. It's called living in a big city. You can be mad, but I guess I don't personally view my car as an extension of myself, and I've never really felt violated any of the 15 or so times my car was broken into.

Once a guy accidentally left a cool knife in my car. So if it keeps happening, you might get a little treat. Also, it sucks your s**t was stolen, but LA is not some shithole city. As far as big cities go, it has a lot of homeless people. I mean, a lot going for it.

He's also a pretty rampant antinatalist. So there's that? I [00:16:00] mean, it's pretty obvious that society is going to become a lot better as people like this, remove themselves from the gene pool. So. You know, I, , that's one of the many reasons why I'm actually quite psyched about fertility collapse.

Speaker 14: I don't want kids. Yeah.

Speaker 15: It doesn't seem that fun.

And most of my friends who are parents, God bless them, spend a lot of their time talking about How much they don't like having kids. Uh, And what me and my wife spend a lot of time talking about is how much fun stuff we can do because we don't have kids

Speaker 14: I think that that's actually pretty rad though because it's like, not everybody, that's not everybody's dream, is to do that. And a lot of people, I think it's important you say it.

But you don't need kids. There's so many kids! I know. And that's the thing too, yeah, I guess.

Speaker 15: Who looks at all the kids out there and thinks, I wish there were more kids?

Speaker 14: No, I think there should be more

Speaker 15: voices of the reason you don't need to have kids. Also, like, won't the world not be here in 30 [00:17:00] years?

Speaker 2: Bite. The truth is, is no, while you are being told by progressives that blacks don't want police in their communities, I'm going to read a quote here, and this is from SciPost, a very centrist organization. Most black Americans favor maintaining or even increasing local police presence and funding, according to a recent study published in the Journal of Criminal Justice.

Surprisingly, this preference is more robust among Black Americans than non Black Americans. It holds steady regardless of changes in crime trends or information about policing reforms. Support for police, however, is reduced by negative feelings towards police and perceptions of unfairness in police procedures.

So Black Americans are more pro police than white Americans. And they want, on average, more police in their neighborhoods, not less. It's fair. The idea that they want anything else is a, not just a fiction, it is a lie that victimizes black communities.

Speaker 3: [00:18:00] Yeah.

Speaker 26: Because we're shooting all People that are actually in, , a lot of these poor communities, outside of the ones doing the crime, are not defund the policers, okay? They know they need the f*****g police. It's always Upper middle class people that think they have some kind of solidarity with poor people And so they want to take their right to safety away from them.

They're like, oh, we're gonna try to help you We're gonna we're gonna make your life better. You're not gonna get arrested anymore by these mean police officers It's crazy, man. And the reason why they don't get it is because they live such sheltered privilege lives That they've never needed police. It's never been a problem

Speaker 2: Okay, so let's, let's start with that, but now we are going to go into the stats and I'm gonna be putting some graphs on screen here and we're gonna have a lot of fun, okay?

Woo! Stats! And this comes from an Aporia piece called Murder as a Measuring Stick. And Aporia, you know, we know Matt who runs it. Rant! He

Speaker: stepped down, yeah.

Speaker 2: Yeah but anyway, great, great magazine. I remember the last time we went to it because we were mentioning it on the podcast and I go to it and the front page of the [00:19:00] magazine is one of our child's faces for the front page article that day and no one had asked us.

Speaker: No, I had sent that to Diana Fleischman who wrote the article. Oh, you had,

Speaker 2: okay. I hadn't. Yeah. I was just like, what? I

Speaker: want everyone to know how cute our children are, Malcolm.

Speaker 2: Of course. Comparing crime rates between countries and across time is hard. Definition shift. Unpunished crimes go unreported. The quality of statistics varies and what constitutes a crime changes. And they had a citation on the unpunished crimes go unreported part.

Exception is murder. Both its definition and the reporting are consistent between countries and across time. Hence, murder rates are often used as a proxy for crime rates, and they have a citation there as well. And this is when you're dealing for very, very long crime rates. And right here is a visualization from 1909 to 2010.

23 of murder rates. And even when you are not adjusting for medical advancements, which we'll get to in a [00:20:00] bit we right now are above the average murder rate from 1909 to

Speaker 4: 2023.

Speaker 2: It shot up massively in the early 2020s and it looks like what you actually have here is a scenario in which the murder rate goes way up then you'll get a slight dip, then it goes way up again.

Yeah, what is that? It seems

Speaker: like there was murder season. What is going on there? Oh, is it? It's summer. Sorry. I forgot. It's summer. No, I actually,

Speaker 2: well, yeah, there is like murder season, but here, what I actually expect is happening when I look at where the rates go way up again is it is as a result of the, the lead when they started using lead in.

But then when,

Speaker: but it went up and down and up and down, like, I don't think the, like it should just go up

Speaker 2: and down. At all. This is over a century, Simone. Oh, okay. Sorry. I should, it does go up and down over a century. We're talking decades apart. Oh, so when it goes down for that big thing, it's the lead. And then [00:21:00] yeah, it looks like it was from leaded gas.

If you, if you overlay this big middle rise in crime rates, it's probably due to leaded gas.

Speaker: Yes, of course. That makes sense. And you had a

Speaker 2: huge decrease in crime rates after so basically crime rates are constantly going up from like 1909 to like 1933. Oh, what happened in 1933 that depressed the crime rates and then led to them to continue to be depressed, the great depression, World War one and World War two.

Speaker: Oh, oh yeah.

Speaker 2: And, and that 1933 though, we didn't go to war on

Speaker: 33.

Okay. So my internal memory of dates is not very good. , world war one started. The United States joined world war one in 1917. And we ended our involvement in 1918. And you still see a pretty sharp rise in the crime rates after that.

So I'm going to retract that being the main reason for this depression and the crime rates. That's where the band unleaded gas that happened in 1973. And as you can see, the rapid [00:22:00] decrease in crime rates began exactly 20 years after that, which is I think about what we'd expect.

 Now we are dealing with a massive uptick in crime rates. And the rise we are seeing looks like it might be faster than any of the previous rises that we've seen. All right. Although the murder rate is insulated from reporting and definition shifts, it is very strongly affected by medical care.

Speaker 2: Both improved techniques and better access, a fatal injury in 1960 might be easily treatable today. To put it in concrete numbers, if aggravated assaults in the United States had been as lethal in 1999 as they were in 1960, the murder rate would have been 3. 4x higher. Whoa. Okay.

Yeah. You're looking at this graph, adjust the more recent ones by 3. 4 X meaning that basically rates have, well, we'll, we'll get into what we've actually seen from rates. And I'm going to put a graph on screen here so people can see the rise in lethality [00:23:00] basically directly correlates with the drop in homicide rates.

It's being recorded. Taking this into account, I would estimate that a murder today represents 4 to 5 times as much crime and disorder as a murder in 1960, and probably 10 times as much as a medieval murder, with early 20th century somewhere in between the two. As such, today's murder rate being comparable to that of the 1960s represents a colossal failure of justice, with overall crime and disorder being several times higher than it was two generations ago.

Why does this matter? The major costs of crime are not from murder because murder is rare and highly concentrated in a few demographics. They are are from more common crimes like assault, mugging, burglary, housebreaking, and grape, as well as general public disorder, both directly and in the huge cost people pay to avoid it.

Murder is a reasonably, murder is a reasonably good proxy for these things [00:24:00] in the short run, because all crime is murder. And disorder tends to go together, but the ratio of murder. I just want to

Speaker: highlight. I had never thought before about the, the cost of crime. When you consider how people live differently, when they anticipate crime, the things that they don't do to avoid crime.

Oh, and there's a huge article

Speaker 2: we could go into on this. It's really interesting that goes over how in countries like Japan and Korea, where you don't have as much crime there are not big dead zones in the center of major cities, but in the U S and parts of Europe, there are where you know, you'll, there'll be zones in the center of certain cities.

Like just people don't go because they're dangerous. Right. I mean, this is not a universal phenomenon. It's a phenomenon unique to high crime countries. Right. A murder rate of X,, corresponds to a lower crime rate than the murder rate of X today. Discourse about crime and its prevalent must take this into [00:25:00] account.

Now, here they have a very long explanation about why in the United States, The homicide rate is higher, but the overall disorder rate is not higher because this is true in the United States. We just have a uniquely high homicide culture in our country.

Speaker: Well, God bless us for being so effective, right?

You know, at least we get the job done when we get back.

Speaker 2: Obviously, progressives will be like, but this is because of our gun laws, but that's like, Objectively not true because Canada has similar gun laws and some other countries have similar gun laws, and it doesn't lead to the same rise in crime, so no, it's not due to our gun laws, it's due to a cultural phenomenon.

In this article they go into a fairly detailed number focus argument based on HBD, which I am not going to get into. But third rail, third rail, third rail, third rail, even I'm willing to go. I actually was hesitant to, to write for them because I was like, I can't be um, we actually thought when we were originally doing this podcast we were going to do it as [00:26:00] an Aporia podcast, like to, to work directly with them to do it and be funded partially by them.

But we just couldn't bring ourselves to do it because I didn't want to be connected with the HBD stuff for people who don't know what HBD is. It's human biodiversity, basically a euphemism, the, the, the, the theory that there are intergenerationally large and persistent genetic differences in behavioral patterns across asset groups.

Anyway I just, I just don't want to touch it. I don't, I don't see any reason why I need to argue that particular third rail. So, wait, why am I missing here? Okay. Yes. If the Western criminal justice systems were merely as effective as they were in 1960 and Western populations have a similar genetic propensity to commit crime, we would naively expect crime to fall over time as has happened in Japan for the following reasons.

Obesity, despite being of lower socioeconomic status and intelligence by the way, the reason they point that out is because being lower [00:27:00] socioeconomic status and lower intelligence increases the probability that somebody will commit a crime.

Speaker 4: Yeah.

Speaker 2: And you can look in prison systems. that. And actually the types of crimes they commit change.

So for example, the rate of being a grapist goes up really high in proportion to how low your IQ is and goes down with how high your IQ is. Which again, reminds me

Speaker: of that girl. Who's like, well, if I can't buy it, I guess I'm going to steal it. Yeah. Just, just like that whole dynamic summarized. Oh my God.

Speaker 2: It's all the most hilarious, low IQ crime thing that happened recently. There was a TikTok trend. And I'm gonna see if I can find some video of this. That was called the, the chase money glitch.

Speaker: Oh, wait, that was real. I saw people making fun of it.

Speaker 2: Check fraud. It was check fraud. What they found was this really cool glitch where you could deposit a check for money that you didn't have.

And it took the bank like 30 minutes to realize that the check had bounced, but [00:28:00] you could withdraw that money in cash before it bounced. And so this is how the chase money glitch worked and people thought this was free money.

Speaker 17: these have to be They will use these There's no way. There's no way, guys.

Speaker 20: Twins, Twins, I'm not even gonna lie. I'm not even supposed to condone this type of behavior due to the direction that I'm trying to project my life in. But that Chase Bait Plate looking too sweet right now, Twins. No cap. I can just hit one Chase Bait Plate. I can buy so many Shibis. Like, Twins is hitting for 30, 40 balls, 50 balls.

Speaker 21: Like, their plan is to do some kind of scam and then retire for the rest of their lives on the 12, 000 that the scam is gonna make [00:29:00] them

Speaker 22: His comments just filled with people either claim no more nine to five b***h or fishing for victims If you got chased, let me know. Someone PMO. If you got chased, let me know.

How do you withdraw it all at once?

Speaker 3: Yeah,

Speaker 2: I said, then they found out later that it wasn't free money, that they had to find a way to pay it back after they had spent it all,

that the bank had their social security number and place of work and address. They didn't

Know that. Yeah, they know where you live.

Speaker 18: The f**k?

The f**k man? They really told me to tap in next day I was supposed to clear look at my account yo

Speaker 24: Cause I have 30, 000 in credit card debt. When they call, I tell them I can't [00:30:00] pay it back yet. Credit card debt. Tomorrow, I may buy myself a dining room set. Or this Boba Fett. Credit card debt.

Speaker 2: This is an incidence of crime by stupidity. I mean, I love, like, part of me wonders, like, what's going through their head. And I was watching an asthma gold video on this as well.

And my, my general takeaway was his as well, which is that they just do not understand at a base level, how a bank works to them. A bank is a money machine and there's a glitch in it. That's giving them the ability to access more money. I mean, they've never taken out a loan or anything like that. They don't understand these concepts.

If there is a way to get the bank to just give the money, then they, yeah, why not? Right. And there's, there's these videos of them just like incriminating, like twerking and stuff out in front of a bank with like cash, like cash thing on their arm. No. All cool. I don't think you do. Sorry, wait. Do you think it goes like [00:31:00] this?

That's how they did it. They like, they'd like spread out the cash on their arm. No, you go like this. No, no, no, no. You know nothing about like the riz and the drip of the younger generation.

Speaker 17: There's no way. There's

Speaker 2: You're like an old lady. How do you put the bills across your arm? You gotta do it like the youth do or you ain't

Speaker: got no riz.

Okay. Interesting. Well, anyway, though, this did blow my mind because I did not know that obese people are about 20 to 25 percent per five BMI, less likely to commit violent property and drug crimes than their normal weight counterparts. So amazing. You know, if you walk by a fat person on the street, you can be 20 to 25 percent per five BMI, less worried that they're

Speaker 2: I'm going to be honest.

When I see people that my brain recognizes as threatening and I move to the other side of the street, they are never obese.

Speaker: They're never fat. It's true. Cause it's the [00:32:00] wiry ones you have to watch out for. Well, I

Speaker 2: look for the wiry ones or the ripped ones or the ones who look like that, you know, the math gets to the sort of skinny.

Anyway, I'm going to read this, this whole thing here. Cause it is actually interesting in the way it's argued. So obesity, despite being of lower socioeconomic status and intelligent. Obese people are much less likely, about 20 25 percent per 5 BMI, to commit violent property and drug crimes than their normal weight.

Counterparts. The evidence isn't overwhelming. You can't do an RCT, but there are plausible reasons, such as lower testosterone and the physical difficulty of committing crime. So let's note the lower testosterone here, because a lot of people don't know this.

As obesity goes up, your testosterone production decreases, and testosterone production is directly correlated with a person's likelihood of committing a crime. Over the past 40 years, average BMI among young adults 18 to 25 increased by 4. 5 points in the United States. [00:33:00] Without this, it's reasonable to assume that crime rates would have increased further.

That is fascinating. That is really fascinating. The other thing that's increased is wealth. In the 21st century, Western societies are vastly wealthier than their 1950s counterparts. To the extent that wealth causally reduces crime, we would expect crime to drop. And then, and this is the big one here.

Sorry, did you have something to say before I go further?

Speaker: No, no, no, keep going. I, I love this topic. This article, super interesting.

Speaker 2: Forensic technology and surveillance in the 21st century. Surveillance is ubiquitous and we have DNA evidence, GPS data and numerous other modern forensic tools. It should be much harder to get away with crimes today than it was in 1960 and.

Since the vast majority of crime is committed by repeat criminals, who it should be easier to apprehend near the beginning of their sprees, one would naively expect this alone to be a reason for significant reduction in crime. But! [00:34:00] Clearance rates have instead plummeted. It's much easier for the typical criminal to get away with it.

How much worse would this be without technological advances? And here is one of the things that gets absolutely wild. If you look at the rate of prosecuted crimes, okay, from 2015 to 2022, it's just crashing. Like the police are basically not prosecuting crimes anymore. Well, and I think that's because a lot of the attorneys

Speaker: general are saying stop.

They're telling them to stop. To give people an idea of

Speaker 2: how big of a difference this is. From, from 2015 to 2022, okay?

So this is the, the clearance rates for various crimes. So the total number went from 17 percent to 6%. Assault without injury went from 16 percent to 3%. Assault with injury went from 25 percent to

Speaker 4: 5%.

Speaker 2: [00:35:00] Public fear, alarm, or distress went from 26 percent to 3%. Shoplifting went from 36 percent to 14%.

Speaker 4: Harassment

Speaker 2: went from 28 percent to 4%. Talking went from 35 percent to 5%. It's basically not being prosecuted anymore. If you look at something like residential burglary, 10 percent to 4%. In every case, it's more than a 50 percent drop. In many cases, you're talking about like an 80 to 90 percent drop.

Speaker: Well, and we had this realization when A crime was committed against our business at one point and two years ago. And it was, we were like, it was, it was a pretty big deal. And we went to all the authorities to try to prosecute it. And it was very, like, it was super clearly documented. Oh, we could tell

Speaker 2: them who did it.

We, like, had the name of the person, we had their ID, we had, like, everything. Yeah, we had

Speaker: their bank details. Yeah, and nothing happened. Couldn't get a single response. And then, of course, after hearing all these stories about, you know, people being stabbed in San Francisco regularly, friends we know who live there, and things, things [00:36:00] of that sort, we're like, well, okay, so We live in a world in which we cannot expect protection, which is interesting because that feels like it's the beginning of a collapse of society.

Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I mean, isn't that what the government does? Theft of a vehicle, for example, like if your car got stolen, that went from 9% to 2%, so it was already pretty low. A 50% reduction. Yeah. And this is over a period of only, uh,

I wanna say seven years. Seven years.

Speaker: It's like the mods are asleep. And we haven't realized fully that they've gone to sleep. So society still kind of works, but soon more and more people are going to start exploiting

Speaker 2: this.

Speaker: It makes me nervous. It does make me very nervous.

Speaker 2: Actually. I really liked it in the, the Azma Gold video, where he was comparing what was happening at these restaurants.

He goes, well, you know, back in WoW, you know, when you won a level, you would go [00:37:00] to, you know, outside the raid bosses, because there weren't the, the big bads there, and you could just farm XP. And he goes, and that's what these people are doing, they're just going out and farming XP on low level People are like, they're not doing it in the dangerous areas.

And he's like, yeah, of course. Like, you're not going to, you're not going to want to be in dangerous area. You're going to get the max XP for minimum danger and it

Speaker: smells good. And everyone is dressed nicely.

Speaker 25: That not everybody can fit inside the restaurant. That's why you have these massive outdoor dining sheds. Well, it's like, no, people do this in games, right? It's like you go outside a dungeon and you farm the mobs outside the dungeon. If you don't have a raid, like, no, I mean, I get how it happens. Like it makes sense.

Speaker 26: Like, and it's smart, People did this in Scarborough monastery. Yeah, exactly. So I, cause there's like only one of them. They're not as high level that you don't have to go inside there. Yeah, no, of course. Try to steal 2, 000, and if you can steal 2, 000, you're gonna try to steal 5, 000. Like, duh. Well, of course. You're leveling up. Well, yeah, I mean if [00:38:00] if I was a criminal i'd be like bro like new patch We got a buff, like, let's go. Let's start farming.

Speaker 2: All right. So, And this, this gets interesting as well. So another reason the rate should be dropping.

If you're just looking at broader statistics is aging. Every developed country has gotten significantly older since 20th century. That's true. Yeah. In accordance with the age crime curve, the vast majority of crime is committed by young men. This would be expected to drive crime down. And I'm going to put a graph on screen here.

It is massively, massively, massively young men that commit crime.

The fact that climate disorder are several times worse today than in the 1960s in most Western societies, albeit better than the 1990s, is a sign that something is very wrong. Now, somebody might be like, ultra low crime societies don't exist, and yet they do. Modern day Singapore and Japan are justifiably admired for their extraordinarily low murder rates.

0. [00:39:00] 1 out of 23 out of 100k respectively. And these murder rates reflect near zero levels of crime and disorder in society at large. This has massive benefits. Blue collar property and violent crime costs around 2. 6 trillion dollars per year, about 12 percent of GDP in the United States. 12 percent of GDP in the United States is going to crime.

Speaker: Mind blowing. Terrifying.

Speaker 2: But this doesn't account for the massive lifestyle changes that people make, which Simone was talking about earlier. In Japan and Singapore, you can go wherever you want alone at night, leave children unattended, travel however you want, no need to stick to sealed off cars, leave expensive possessions unsecure in public areas, and live anywhere you can afford with corresponding cost of living benefits.

No urban cores are hollowed out by crimes. This means shorter commutes, better amenities, and more efficient use of land. But, these two wealthy aged East Asian societies are not the only ultra low crime societies to exist. Mid century England had about [00:40:00] four times the homicide rate of modern Japan, which, given advances in medical care, implies it had similar levels of crime and disorder.

This was an average age of 34 15 years younger than the median Japanese person today. So to understand how impressive the middle ages were like middle aged England, right. It had similar low crime rates. But a much younger population, which should have made higher crime rates. And it's not just England.

Other parts of post war Western Europe also had extremely low levels of crime, 1950 to 1974. This, however, I think is cheesing it. The Middle Ages, okay, I see that. Actually it's not cheesing it. Oh, actually they both have the same explanation. War. War is very good at reducing crime rates.

So, of course, I'm going to look up to see if there's any statistics on this. And I found one study that showed an 18% reduction in amounts of crime during war times, which is less than I expected to be [00:41:00] honest.

Speaker 2: This is actually something that in the middle ages we see a monarchy talking about.

Because right here he's like, oh yeah, post war United States, the crime rate's dropped. It's like, yeah, because everybody who has like this criminal sort of drive in them to go out and kill and mug and it's ultra aggressive ends up dying in wars or getting it out of their system or. turning it into a career.

You know, but in the middle ages, there were periods where they went significant time periods without war and people noticed that crime rates rose significantly during those periods. So are you saying our solution

Speaker: is just, just war? Should we, should we have Hunger Games, but just for 20 something men?

Yeah. They'd do it. They'd do it. Yeah, there were voluntary hunger games for 20 something men. And you could get famous, like, on TikTok for doing it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, didn't Mr. Beast get in trouble for this whole, like, squid game thing, where a bunch of people went and did a bunch of stuff that, I guess, sounds really unpleasant, but Because, you know, you could, I'm sure I don't [00:42:00] care.

Speaker 2: I just want to watch a bunch of like angry 20 year olds who might be stealing my car, murder each other. Like I think that'd be fantastic.

Speaker: I think they would enjoy it too. A lot of them, a lot of people would genuinely enjoy that.

Speaker 2: One thing I'm going to push for you know, we, we use dual laws on the books in this country, I would watch it.

It would all be voluntary.

Speaker: Yeah. Is there research on whether duals. When they were legal and there was a system for them reduced, I don't know, we'll say like unstructured or spontaneous crime.

Speaker 2: Oh, I'm certain they did. Yeah. I mean, what are duels but like a structured excuse for a crime of passion? Like, oh, you slept with my wife.

Okay, let's duel, you know. It wasn't even that would be

Speaker 3: like, you dissed me, but still, it was often pretty bad.

Speaker 2: Post war Western European countries were among the safest on earth, comparable to much older, much wealthier, and much more forensically sophisticated modern Japan. There's no technical reason why Western European societies today shouldn't [00:43:00] be this safe and reap the benefits beyond a lack of will.

There is a reason, there's genetic reasons, like if they want to talk about like, Hbd or whatever. I mean, we can talk about the white populations that my ancestors came from in the United States. And these were very murderous populations famously

Speaker: murdery.

Speaker 2: Yeah. Famously murdery. And I think that what they might be confused Fusing is looking at across America population samples from these periods where certain communities in America during this time had really low crime rates.

The Puritan communities of New England had incredibly low prime rates. The German immigrant communities that, like, the Midland areas and the Quakers had low crime rates. But the greater Appalachian communities had a really high crime rates. There's there's one of my favorites from American nations.

They were talking about how the there was like a class of men in these communities that would sharpen their nails to be like I think

Speaker: that was actually in LBNC. Maybe both of them talked about it where they took [00:44:00] pride and yes, having uniquely sharp nails so they could gouge out people's eyes and bras, basically.

Yeah. Yeah. This is, this is my eye

Speaker 2: gouging nail. This is my eye gouging finger.

So I couldn't find the exact quote from American nations just by Googling. However, I was able to find a fantastic vice article on this tradition. , titled rough and tumble the deeply Southern tradition of nose, bit