Global Commodities: 2026 Outlook – Supply-driven crocodile cycle

Natasha Kaneva and team share J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Commodities Outlook. Commodity prices have experienced repeated and highly synchronized cycles across various markets over the past 50 years, with these fluctuations closely tied to global economic trends through shifts in demand. This co-movement broke down in 2024, as energy prices reset lower while metals prices surged, marking the emergence of a new commodity regime, driven by divergent supply dynamics.  Looking ahead to 2026 this deviation is expected to continue as supply-constrained metals continue to beat glutted energy.

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research

Otar Dgebuadze, Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2025.

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