Astral Codex Ten Podcast

A red sun dawns over San Francisco. Juxtaposed against clouds and sea, it forms a patriotic tableau: blood red, deathly white, and the blue of the void. As its first rays touch the city, the frantic traffic slows to a crawl; even the birds cease to sing. It is Election Day in the United States. Future generations will number American elections among history's greatest and most terrible spectacles. As we remember the Games in the Colosseum, or the bloody knives of Tenochtitlan, so they will remember us. That which other ages would relegate to a tasteful coronation or mercifully quick coup, we extend into an eighteen-month festival of madness. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-judgment-day

I. Time to own the libs! ACX joins such based heterodox thinkers as Curtis Yarvin, Nick Fuentes, Richard Spencer, and David Duke in telling you what the woke Washington Post and failing LA Times don't want you to know: Donald Trump is the wrong choice for US President. If you're in a swing state, we recommend you vote Harris; if a safe state, Harris or your third-party candidate of choice. [EDIT/UPDATE: If you're in a safe state and want to trade your protest vote with a swing state voter, or vice versa, go to https://www.swapyourvote.org/] I mostly stand by the reasoning in my 2016 post, Slate Star Codex Endorses Clinton, Johnson, Or Stein. But you can read a better and more recent argument against Trump's economic policy here, and against his foreign policy here. You can read an argument that Trump is a dangerous authoritarian here. You can, but you won't, because every American, most foreigners, and a substantial fraction of extra-solar aliens have already heard all of this a thousand times. I'm under no illusion of having anything new to say, or having much chance of changing minds. I write this out of a vague sense of deontological duty rather than a consequentialist hope that anything will happen. And I'm writing the rest of this post because I feel bad posting a couple of paragraph endorsement and not following up. No guarantees this is useful to anybody. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/acx-endorses-harris-oliver-or-stein

[This is a guest post by Clara Collier. Clara is the editor of Asterisk Magazine.] Proposition 36 is a California ballot measure that increases mandatory sentences for certain drug and theft crimes. It's also a referendum on over a decade of sentencing reform efforts stemming from California's historical prison overcrowding crisis. Like many states, California passed increasingly tough sentencing laws through the 90s and early 2000s. This led to the state's prisons operating massively over capacity: at its peak, a system built for 85,000 inhabitants housed 165,000. This was, among other things, a massive humanitarian crisis. The system was too overstretched to provide adequate healthcare to prisoners. Violence and suicide shot up. In 2011, the Supreme Court ruled that California prisons were so overcrowded that their conditions violated the 8th Amendment ban on cruel and unusual punishment. That year, the state assembly passed a package of reforms called "realignment," which shifted supervision of low-level offenders from the state to the counties. Then, in 2014, Californians voted for Proposition 47, which reduced some felony crimes to misdemeanors – theft of goods valued at under $950 and simple drug possession – and made people in prison for those crimes eligible for resentencing. Together, realignment and Prop 47 brought down California's prison and jail population by 55,000. The campaign for Prop 36 is based on the premise that Prop 47 failed, leading to increased drug use and retail theft (but don't trust me – it says so in the text of the measure). 36 would repeal some parts of 47, add some additional sentencing increases, and leave some elements in place (the LA Times has a good breakdown of the changes here). It's easy to round this off to a simple tradeoff: are we willing to put tens of thousands of people in jail if it would decrease the crime rate? But this would be the wrong way to think about the measure: there is no tradeoff. Prop 36 will certainly imprison many people, but it won't help fight crime. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-case-against-proposition-36

Tyler Cowen is an economics professor and blogger at Marginal Revolution. Patrick Collison is the billionaire founder of the online payments company Stripe. In 2019, they wrote an article calling for a discipline of Progress Studies, which would figure out what progress was and how to increase it. Later that year, tech entrepreneur Jason Crawford stepped up to spearhead the effort. The immediate reaction was mostly negative. There were the usual gripes that "progress" was problematic because it could imply that some cultures/times/places/ideas were better than others. But there were also more specific objections: weren't historians already studying progress? Wasn't business academia already studying innovation? Are you really allowed to just invent a new field every time you think of something it would be cool to study? It seems like you are. Five years later, Progress Studies has grown enough to hold its first conference. I got to attend, and it was great. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/notes-from-the-progress-studies-conference

The Median Voter Theorem says that, given some reasonable assumptions, the candidate closest to the beliefs of the median voter will win. So if candidates are rational, they'll all end up at the same place on a one-dimensional political spectrum: the exact center. Here's a simple argument for why this should be true: suppose the Democrats wisely choose a centrist platform, but the Republicans foolishly veer far-right: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-median-voter-theorem

Thanks to our local meetup groups for doing this! Quick lookup version: AUSTIN: Guide here BOSTON: Guide here CHICAGO: Guide here LOS ANGELES: Guide here NEW YORK CITY: Guide here OAKLAND/BERKELEY: Guide here PHILADELPHIA: Guide here SAN FRANCISCO: Guide here SEATTLE: Guide here Longer version with commentary: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/acx-local-voting-guides

What problem do we get after we've solved all other problems? I. Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom got famous for asking "What if technology is really really bad?" He helped define 'existential risk', popularize fears of malevolent superintelligence, and argue that we were living in a 'vulnerable world' prone to physical or biological catastrophe. His latest book breaks from his usual oeuvre. In Deep Utopia, he asks: "What if technology is really really good?" Most previous utopian literature (he notes) has been about 'shallow' utopias. There are still problems; we just handle them better. There's still scarcity, but at least the government distributes resources fairly. There's still sickness and death, but at least everyone has free high-quality health care. But Bostrom asks: what if there were literally no problems? What if you could do literally whatever you wanted?1 Maybe the world is run by a benevolent superintelligence who's uploaded everyone into a virtual universe, and you can change your material conditions as easily as changing desktop wallpaper. Maybe we have nanobots too cheap to meter, and if you whisper 'please make me a five hundred story palace, with a thousand servants who all look exactly like Marilyn Monroe', then your wish will be their command. If you want to be twenty feet tall and immortal, the only thing blocking you is the doorframe. Would this be as good as it sounds? Or would people's lives become boring and meaningless? https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-deep-utopia

Okay, let's do this! Link is here, should take about twenty minutes. I'll close the form on Monday 10/21 and post results the following week. I'll put an answer key in the comments here, and have a better one including attributions in the results post. DON'T READ THE COMMENTS UNTIL YOU'RE DONE. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-art-turing-test

Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are: 1st: Two Arms And A Head, reviewed by AmandaFromBethlehem. Amanda is active in the Philadelphia ACX community. This is her first year entering the Book Review Contest, and she is currently working on a silly novel about an alien who likes thermodynamics. When she's not writing existential horror, she practices Tengwar calligraphy and does home improvement projects. 2nd: Nine Lives, reviewed by David Matolcsi. David is an AI safety researcher from Hungary, currently living in Berkeley. He doesn't have much publicly available writing yet, but plans to publish some new blog posts on LessWrong in the coming months 3rd: How The War Was Won, reviewed by Jack Thorlin. Jack previously worked as an attorney at the Central Intelligence Agency, and is now an assistant professor at the University of Arkansas School of Law. First place gets $2,500, second place $1,000, third place gets $500. Email me at [email protected] to tell me how to send you money; your choices are Paypal, Bitcoin, Ethereum, check in the mail, or donation to your favorite charity. Please contact me by October 21 or you lose your prize. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-contest-2024-winners

I. My ex-girlfriend has a weird relationship to reality. Her actions ripple out into the world more heavily than other people's. She finds herself at the center of events more often than makes sense. One time someone asked her to explain the whole "AI risk" thing to a State Senator. She hadn't realized states had senators, but it sounded important, so she gave it a try, figuring out her exact pitch on the car ride to his office. A few months later, she was informed that the Senator had really taken her words to heart, and he'd been thinking hard about how he could help. This is part of the story behind SB 1047 - specifically, the only part I have any personal connection to. The rest of this post comes from anonymous sources in the pro-1047 community who wanted to tell their side of the story. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/sb-1047-our-side-of-the-story

I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Earlier this year, I published Daniel Böttger's essay Consciousness As Recursive Reflections. While we were working on editing it, Daniel had some dramatic experiences and revelations, culminating in him developing a theory which he says "will contribute to saving the world", which he asked me to publish. Although I can't speak for its world-historical importance, and although he admits his mental state is fragile, after some discussion I decided to publish because - if nothing else - he's a great writer with a fascinating story and some really interesting thoughts. Content warning for medical horror; you can skip to the section "Thankful Theory" to avoid this. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/triple-tragedy-and-thankful-theory

The "cultural Christianity" argument says that atheists might not like Christianity, but they like a culture which depends on Christianity. They like open, free, thoughtful, liberal, beautiful, virtuous societies. Unmoored from a connection to Christanity, a society will gradually have less of those goods, until even atheists are unhappy. Therefore (continues the argument), atheists should be cultural Christians. While they can continue to privately disbelieve, they should support an overall Christian society, which they can dwell contentedly on the fringes of. I think this is sort of where Ayaan Hirsi Ali is coming from. https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-against-the-cultural-christianity

How is Javier Milei, the new-ish libertarian president of Argentina doing? According to right-wing sources, he's doing amazing, inflation is vanquished, and Argentina is on the road to First World status. According to left-wing sources, he's devastating the country, inflation has ballooned, and Argentina is mired in unprecedented dire poverty. I was confused enough to investigate further. Going through various topics in more depth: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/preliminary-milei-report-card

Exegi monumentum aere perennius There's a Twitter meme on how men constantly think about the Roman Empire. Some feminist friends objected that women think about Rome a lot too. To settle the matter, I included a question about this on this year's ACX survey, "Have you thought about the Roman Empire in the past 24 hours?" (the Byzantine Empire also counted). Here are responses from 607 cis women and 4,925 cis men: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/how-often-do-men-think-about-rome

Finalist #14 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] Introduction The Ballad of the White Horse is a 2,684 line poem about conservatism, and it is brilliant. It has been called the last great epic poem written in English. I have not read the three dozen or so English epic poems that Wikipedia claims have been written since, so I cannot confirm the "last" part, but I can confirm the rest. It is a great poem, in both quality and size, and it is undoubtedly an epic poem. It has almost all the qualities required of an epic poem: it begins by invoking a muse (his wife), it starts in media res, the plot is centered around a hero of legend, there are supernatural visions and interventions, and an omniscient narrator. The only epic requirement it lacks is a long boring list shoved in somewhere, for which I am grateful. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-ballad-of-the

Sakana (website, paper) is supposed to be "an AI scientist". Since it can't access the physical world, it can only do computer science. Its human handlers give it a computer program. It prompts itself to generate hypotheses about the program ("if I change this number, the program will run faster"). Then it uses an AI coding submodule to test its hypotheses. Finally, it uses a language model to write them up in typical scientific paper format. Is it good? Not really. Experts who read its papers say they're trivial, poorly reasoned, and occasionally make things up (the creators defend themselves by saying that "less than ten percent" of the AI's output is hallucinations). Its writing is meandering, repetitive, and often self-contradictory. Like the proverbial singing dog, we're not supposed to be impressed that it's good, we're supposed to be impressed that it can do it at all. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/sakana-strawberry-and-scary-ai

Probably No Superintelligent Forecaster Yet FiveThirtyNine (ha ha) is a new forecasting AI that purports to be "superintelligent", ie able to beat basically all human forecasters. In fact, its creators go further than that: they say it beats Metaculus, a site which aggregates the estimates of hundreds of forecasters to generate estimates more accurate than any of them. You can read the announcement here and play with the model itself here. (kudos to the team for making the model publicly available, especially since these things usually have high inference costs) https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-91624

Finalist #13 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] Cats have nine lives but they don't get involved in jungle wars in the Philippines Aimen Dean (pseudonym) compares himself to the proverbial cat: he has nine lives, surviving every impossible situation and starting new lives under strange new conditions. Cats pack their nine lives in an average of 12-18 years, which is a quite impressive speed, but Aimen Dean was committed to living his lives even quicker than that. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-nine-lives

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-september-2024

Freddie deBoer has a post on what he calls "the temporal Copernican principle." He argues we shouldn't expect a singularity, apocalypse, or any other crazy event in our lifetimes. Discussing celebrity transhumanist Yuval Harari, he writes: What I want to say to people like Yuval Harari is this. The modern human species is about 250,000 years old, give or take 50,000 years depending on who you ask. Let's hope that it keeps going for awhile - we'll be conservative and say 50,000 more years of human life. So let's just throw out 300,000 years as the span of human existence, even though it could easily be 500,000 or a million or more. Harari's lifespan, if he's lucky, will probably top out at about 100 years. So: what are the odds that Harari's lifespan overlaps with the most important period in human history, as he believes, given those numbers? That it overlaps with a particularly important period of human history at all? Even if we take the conservative estimate for the length of human existence of 300,000 years, that means Harari's likely lifespan is only about .33% of the entirety of human existence. Isn't assuming that this .33% is somehow particularly special a very bad assumption, just from the basis of probability? And shouldn't we be even more skeptical given that our basic psychology gives us every reason to overestimate the importance of our own time? (I think there might be a math error here - 100 years out of 300,000 is 0.033%, not 0.33% - but this isn't my main objection.) He then condemns a wide range of people, including me, for failing to understand this: Some people who routinely violate the Temporal Copernican Principle include Harari, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Sam Altman, Francis Fukuyama, Elon Musk, Clay Shirky, Tyler Cowen, Matt Yglesias, Tom Friedman, Scott Alexander, every tech company CEO, Ray Kurzweil, Robin Hanson, and many many more. I think they should ask themselves how much of their understanding of the future ultimately stems from a deep-seated need to believe that their times are important because they think they themselves are important, or want to be. I deny misunderstanding this. Freddie is wrong. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-deboer-on-temporal-copernicanism

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] For the longest time, I avoided reading The Pale King. It wasn't the style—in places thick with the author's characteristic footnotes,1 sentences that run for pages, and spasms of dense technical language. Nor was it the subject matter—the book is set at an IRS Center and tussles with postmodernism. Nor the themes, one of which concerns the existential importance of boredom, which the book, at times, takes pains to exemplify. No—I couldn't read The Pale King because it was the book that killed him. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-pale-king

[Original post here.] Aeon writes: The main complaint about this expression is that it's "not a real apology," and that's true, it isn't. The error is in thinking it is therefore a fake apology. But it isn't, because "I'm sorry" is not a statement of contrition, it's a statement of sorrow. Somehow everyone has gotten confused into thinking an apology is the only correct use for that phrase despite the plain meaning of the words. This is the comment that best expresses what I wished I'd said at the beginning. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-sorry

You look up from your massive mahogany desk. "Tom, right? Thank you for coming…hmm…I see you're applying for the role of Vice-President Of Sinister Plots. Your resume looks very impressive - I didn't even know any of the masterminds behind the Kennedy assassination were still alive." "That's what we want you to think," says Tom. "Of course. Then just one question for you. What's something you believe, that very few people agree with you on?" "I think we're in a simulation." "Hm, yes, that was very shocking and heterodox back in 2012. But here at Thiel Capital we're looking for something - " "Let me finish. I think we're in a simulation, and it's a porno." "What?" https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/interview-day-at-thiel-capital

Finalist #11 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] 1. The Supernatural is Dead April, 1861 was a cruel month. The American Civil War had just started, and across the Atlantic, high in a remote valley in the western Alps, in the old market town of Morzines, another war was raging, this one pitting the locals against the legions of Hell. The regional authorities, confronted with an outbreak of townspeople writhing in convulsions, entering trances, shrieking in weird tongues, and suffering from other diabolical whatnot, had begged the central government for help, writing: "To conclude, we will say: That our impression is that all this is supernatural, in cause and in effects; according to the rules of sound logic, and according to everything that theology, ecclesiastical history, and the Gospel teach and tell us, we declare it our considered opinion that this is truly demonic possession." Dr. Augustin Constans, Inspector General of the Insane Department (inspecteur général du service des aliénés) was dispatched from Paris to investigate. The Doctor later reported, "Arriving in Morzines on April 26, I found the entire population in a state of depression difficult to describe; everyone was deep in morbid gloom, living in constant fear of finding themselves or their loved ones consumed by devils." Dr. Constans' next action was highly unorthodox. Standard protocol for treating these afflictions called for accusing someone of witchcraft, preferably a poor, socially isolated, old woman, (although, in a pinch, anyone of any sex, status, or age would do, and often did), torturing her until she confessed to creating the calamity by consorting with the Devil, and, after that, lighting her on fire, first strangling her to death, if, at this stage of the proceedings, one judged that a modicum of mercy was in order. Undoubtedly aware of this precedent, Dr. Constans rounded up the possessed and subjected them to: …an examination. From which, all of his new patients emerged non-tortured and unburnt. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-history-of-the

And its cousin, "I'm sorry if you're offended" People hate this phrase. They say it's a fake apology that only gets used to dismiss others' concerns. Well, I'm sorry they feel that way. People sometimes get sad or offended by appropriate/correct/reasonable actions: Maybe one of your family members makes an unreasonable demand ("Please lend me lots of money to subsidize my drug addiction"), you say no, and they say they feel like you don't love them. Maybe you speak out against a genocidal aggressive war. Someone complains that their family member died fighting in that war. They accuse you of implicitly dismissing their relative's sacrifice and calling them a bad person. Maybe you argue that a suspect is innocent of a crime, and some unrelated crime victim says it triggers them when people question victims or advocate for the accused. They say that now they are re-traumatized. I see three classes of potential response: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-defense-of-im-sorry-you-feel-that

Finalist #10 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] I. Suppose you were a newcomer to English literature, and having heard of this artistic device called 'poetry', wondered what it was all about and where it came from. You might start by looking up some examples of poetry from each century, going back until you can't easily understand the English anymore, and find in the 16th century such poems as John Skelton's "Speke, Parott" [sic]: My name is Parrot, a byrd of Paradyse, By Nature devised of a wonderowus kynde, Deyntely dyeted with dyvers dylycate spyce, Tyl Euphrates, that flode, dryveth me into Inde; Where men of that countrey by fortune me fynde, And send me to greate ladyes of estate; Then Parot must have an almon or a date.

Now that we've gone over the pharmacology of the GLP-1 agonists, let's get back to the economics. Last time, we asked - how will the economy handle a $12,000/year drug that everyone wants? Now we have an answer: the compounding loophole. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-compounding-loophole

In a recent post, I said that part of opposing cancel culture is to rigorously define it. Greg Lukianoff, president of FIRE, took up the challenge. His definition, first mentioned in his book Cancelling Of The American Mind, is: Cancel Culture is the uptick, beginning around 2014 and accelerating in 2017 and after, of campaigns to get people fired, disinvited, deplatformed, or otherwise punished for speech that is — or would be — protected by First Amendment standards, and the climate of fear and conformity that has resulted from this uptick. When I talk about wanting to "rigorously define it", I don't just mean the kind of definition you would put in a dictionary. Consider the debate around the definition of "woman". It's perfectly fine for a dictionary to say "you know, female person, opposite of male". But the debaters want something you can use to adjudicate edge cases. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/lukianoff-and-defining-cancel-culture

Finalist #9 in the Book Review Contest You are a serious person with serious interests. The last comic book you read was more likely by Bryan Caplan than Jonathan Hickman. You would prefer to be reading high quality book reviews on AstralCodexTen. You believe ACX book reviews are usually more insightful than the books themselves, and a far more efficient use of your time. But even book reviews take time to process, and there are a lot of book reviews to read. Why spend your valuable time reading an 11,000 word review of superhero comic books? That is the first question I aim to answer in this review. If I am successful, maybe you will invest a little more time to discover the answer to the next four questions. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-silver-age-marvel

Fine, the title is an exaggeration. But only a small one. GLP-1 receptor agonist medications like Ozempic are already FDA-approved to treat diabetes and obesity. But an increasing body of research finds they're also effective against stroke, heart disease, kidney disease, Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, alcoholism, and drug addiction. There's a pattern in fake scammy alternative medicine. People get excited about some new herb. They invent a laundry list of effects: it improves heart health, softens menopause, increases energy, deepens sleep, clears up your skin. This is how you know it's a fraud. Real medicine works by mimicking natural biochemical signals. Why would you have a signal for "have low energy, bad sleep, nasty menopause, poor heart health, and ugly skin"? Why would all the herb's side effects be other good things? Real medications usually shift a system along a tradeoff curve; if they hit more than one system, the extras usually just produce side effects. If you're lucky, you can pick out a subset of patients for whom the intended effect is more beneficial than the side effects are bad. That's how real medicine works. But GLP-1 drugs are starting to feel more like the magic herb. Why? https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/why-does-ozempic-cure-all-diseases

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] To a first approximation, there are a million books about World War II. Why should you care about How the War Was Won (hereinafter "HtWWW") by Phillips Payson O'Brien? It provides a new, transformative view of the conflict by focusing on production of key goods and what affected that production instead of the ups and downs of battles at the front. That particular lens used can (and should) be applied outside of just World War II, and you can get a feel for how that might be done by reading HtWWW. I have lectured about World War II and read many, many books about it. I have never texted friends more excerpts of a book than this one. I have some criticisms of HtWWW, but if the criticisms dissuade you from reading the book, I will have failed. These complaints are like tut-tutting Einstein's penmanship. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-how-the-war-was

[original post here] Table Of Contents I. Comments About Master And Slave Morality II. Comments By People Named In The Post III. Comments Making Specific Points About One Of The Thinkers In The Post IV. Other Comments https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-nietzsche

Some commenters on the recent post accused me of misunderstanding the Nietzschean objection to altruism. We hate altruism, they said, not because we're "bad and cruel", but because we instead support vitalism. Vitalism is a moral system that maximizes life, glory and strength, instead of maximizing happiness. Altruism is bad because it throws resources into helping sick (maybe even dysgenic) people, thus sapping our life, glory, and strength. In a blog post (linked in the original post, discussed at length in the comments), Walt Bismarck compares the ultimate fate of altruism to WALL-E: a world where morbidly obese humans are kept in a hedonistic haze by robot servitors (although the more typical example I hear is tiling the universe with rats on heroin, which maximizes a certain definition of pleasure). In contrast, vitalism imagines a universe alive with dynamism, heroism, and great accomplishments. My response: in most normal cases, altruism and vitalism suggest the same solutions. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/altruism-and-vitalism-as-fellow-travelers

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] Content warning: body horror, existential devastation, suicide. This book is an infohazard that will permanently alter your view of paraplegia. The Death of a Newly-Paraplegic Philosopher For me, paraplegia and life itself are not compatible. This is not life, it is something else. In May of 2006, philosophy student Clayton Schwartz embarks on a Pan-American motorcycle trip for the summer before law school. He is 30 years old and in peak physical condition. He makes it as far south as Acapulco in Mexico before crashing into a donkey that had wandered into the road. The impact crushes his spinal cord at the T5 vertebra, rendering him paralyzed from the nipples down. On Sunday, February 24, 2008, he commits suicide. In the year and a half in between, he writes Two Arms and a Head, his combination memoir and suicide note. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-two-arms-and-a-head

I. Bentham's Bulldog Blogger "Bentham's Bulldog" recently wrote Shut Up About Slave Morality. Nietzsche's concept of "slave morality" (he writes) is just a dysphemism for the usual morality where you're not bad and cruel. Right-wing edgelords use "rejection of slave morality" as a justification for badness and cruelty: When people object to slave morality, they are just objecting to morality. They are objecting to the notion that you should care about others and doing the right thing, even when doing so doesn't materially benefit you. Now, one can consistently object to those things, but it doesn't make them any sort of Nostradamus. It makes them morally deficient, and also generally philosophically confused. The tedious whinging about slave morality is just a way to pass off not caring about morality or taking moral arguments seriously as some sort of sophisticated and cynical myth-busting. But it's not that in the slightest. No one is duped by slave morality, no one buys into it because of some sort of deep-seated ignorance. Those who follow it do so because of a combination of social pressure and a genuine desire to help out others. That is, in fact, not in any way weak but a noble impulse from which all good actions spring. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/matt-yglesias-considered-as-the-nietzschean

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-real-raw-news

[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-july-2024

The "LibsOfTikTok" Twitter account found a random Home Depot employee who said she wished the Trump assassin hadn't missed. Her followers mass-called Home Depot and got the employee fired. Moral of the story: despite everything, there's apparently still a norm against assassinating politicians. But some on the right interpreted this as meaning something more. A sudden vibe shift, or impending Trump victory, has handed conservatives the levers of cancel culture! This sparked a right-wing blogosphere debate: should they be magnanimous in victory, or descend into an orgy of vengeance? https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/some-practical-considerations-before

Finalist #5 in the Book Review Contest https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-how-language-began [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked]

[Original post here] Table Of Contents 1: Responses To Broad Categories Of Objections 2: Responses To Specific Comments 3: Comments By People Who Have Relevant Experiences 4: Closing Thoughts https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-mentally

A guest post by Daniel Böttger [Editor's note: I accept guest posts from certain people, especially past Book Review Contest winners. Daniel Böttger, who wrote last year's review of On The Marble Cliffs, has finally taken me up on this and submitted this essay. I don't necessarily agree with or endorse all guest posts, and I'm still collecting my thoughts (ha!) on this one.] Nobody knows for sure how subjective experiences relate to objective physics. That is the main reason why there are serious claims that not everything is physics. It has been called "the most important problem in the biological sciences", "the last frontier of brain science", and "as important as anything that can possibly exist" as well as "core to" all value and ethics. So, let's solve that in a blog post.

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] "You wake up screaming, frightened by memories, You're plagued by nightmares, do we haunt all of your dreams?" https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-family-that

Ten people are stuck on a lifeboat after their ship sank. It will be weeks before anyone finds them, and they're out of food. They've heard this story before, so they decide to turn to cannibalism sooner rather than later. They agree to draw lots to determine the victim. Just as the first person is reaching for the lots, Albert shouts out "WAIT LET'S ALL KILL AND EAT BOB!" They agree to do this instead of drawing lots. This is obvious, right? For nine out of ten people, it's a better deal. For nine out of ten people, it brings their chance of death from 1/10 to 0. Bob's against it, of course, but he's outvoted. The nine others overpower Bob and eat him. Something about this surprises me. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/lifeboat-games-and-backscratchers

I. Suppose that you, an ordinary person, open your door and start choking on yellow smoke. You call up your representative and say "there should be less pollution". A technical expert might hear "there should be less pollution" and have dozens of questions. Do you just want to do common-sense things, like lower the detection threshold for hexamethyldecawhatever? Or do you want to ban tetraethylpentawhatever, which is vital for the baby formula food chain and would cause millions of babies to die if you banned it? Any pollution legislation must be made of specific policies. In some sense, it's impossible to be "for" or "against" the broad concept of "reducing pollution". Everyone would be against a bill that devastated the baby formula supply chain for no benefit. And everyone would support a magical bill that cleaned the skies with no extra hardship on industry. In between, there are just a million different tradeoffs; some are good, others bad. So (the technocrat concludes), it's incoherent to support "reducing pollution". You can only support (or oppose) particular plans. And yet ordinary people should be able to say "I want to stop choking on yellow smoke every time I go outside" without having to learn the difference between hexamethyldecawhatever and tetraethylpentawhatever. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/details-that-you-should-include-in

Finalist #3 in the Book Review Contest [This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-don-juan

The last week hasn't been great for the Democratic Party. First Biden bombed the debate. But the subsequent decision about whether/how to replace Biden has also been embarrassing. Biden has refused to step aside gracefully, and party elites don't seem to have any contingency plan. Worse, they don't even seem united on the need to figure anything out, with many deflecting the conversation to irrelevant points like "Trump is also bad" or pretending that nothing is really wrong. Some of the party's problems are hard and have no shortcuts. But the big one - figuring out whether replacing Biden would even help the Democrats' electoral chances - is a good match for prediction markets. Set up markets to find the probability of Democrats winning they nominate Biden, vs. the probability of Democrats winning if they replace him with someone else. (see my Prediction Market FAQ for why I think they are good for cases like these) Before we go into specifics, the summary result: Replacing Biden with Harris is neutral to slightly positive; replacing Biden with Newsom or a generic Democrat increases their odds of winning by 10 - 15 percentage points. There are some potential technical objections to this claim, but they mostly suggest reasons why the markets might overestimate Biden's chances rather than underestimate them. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-markets-suggest-replacing

[This is one of the finalists in the 2024 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked] Matthew Scully, author of Dominion, is an unlikely animal welfare advocate. He's a conservative Christian who worked as a speechwriter for George W. Bush. That's like finding out that Greta Thunberg's Chief of Staff spent their spare time writing a 400-page, densely researched book called "Guns Are Good, Actually." Scully's unusual background could be why it took me years of reading everything on animal welfare I could get my hands on before I stumbled on his 2002 manifesto. Let this be a warning to other authors — write just one little State of the Union address that exalts the War on Terror and your books might not get a lot of reach in more liberal, EA-adjacent circles. Scully is like a right-wing, vegetarian, Christian, David Foster Wallace. If you read DFW's Consider the Lobster and thought, "I wish someone would write a full length book with this vibe, where a very talented and surprisingly funny writer excoriates problematic industries," Dominion is the book for you. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-dominion-by-matthew

Alexander: Hello and welcome to the first Presidential debate of 2024. Based on the remarkable popularity of the previous debates I moderated (2016, 2020, 2023), I've been asked to come here again and help the American people learn more about the our two candidates - President Joseph Biden, and former president Donald J. Trump. This debate will be broadcast live to select viewers, and I'll also post a transcript on my blog. Let's start with a question for President Biden. Mr. President, the biggest political story of the past four years was Dobbs. v. Jackson Women's Health, which overturned Roe v. Wade and gave final decision-making power on abortion back to the states. How would a second Biden administration treat this issue? Do you think states should be setting policy on abortion? Biden: I'm not even sure states exist. Alexander: You're . . . not sure states exist? https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-2024-presidential-debate

I think I got the original post slightly off. I was critiquing Sam Kriss' claim that the best traditions come from "just doing stuff", without trying to tie things back to anything in the past. The counterexample I was thinking of was all the 2010s New Atheist attempts to reinvent "church, but secular". These were well-intentioned. Christians get lots of benefits from going to church, like a good community. These benefits don't seem obviously dependent on the religious nature. So instead of tying your weekly meeting back to what Jesus and St. Peter and so on said two thousand years ago, why not "just do stuff" and have a secular weekly meeting? Most of these attempts fell apart. One of them, the Sunday Assembly, clings to existence but doesn't seem too successful. People with ancient traditions 1, people who just do stuff 0. But after thinking about it more, maybe this isn't what Sam means. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/clarification-on-fake-tradition-is

I had been living in Japan for a year before I got the idea to look up whose portraits were on the banknotes I was handling every day. In the United States, the faces of presidents and statesmen adorn our currency. So I was surprised to learn that the mustachioed man on the ¥1,000 note with which I purchased my daily bento box was a bacteriologist. It was a pleasant surprise, though. It seems to me that a society that esteems bacteriologists over politicians is in many ways a healthy one. But it was the lofty gaze of the man on the ¥10,000 note that really caught my attention. I find that always having a spare ¥10,000 note is something of a necessity in Japan. You never know when you might stumble upon a pop-up artisanal sake kiosk beside a metro station staircase that only accepts cash and only opens one day a year. So over the course of my time in Japan I had come to know the face of the man on that bill rather well. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-autobiography-of