Arms Control Wonk

Does North Korea have a triad? Perhaps a boostrapped, janky triad? How mature is their arsenal at this point? North Korea lobbed a Hwasong-12 over Japan after a week of smaller missile tests, and sparked a testy exchange of missile tests and aircraft scramblings. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about missile overflights, what it means to begrudgingly accept a new nuclear power, and what North Korean nuclear strategy looks like in 2022. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to....steal a power plant? Links of Note: Russia Tries to Steal a Nuclear Power Plant, Cheryl Rofer Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Why isn't North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test? Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House Rule... The team talks about the impact of Michael Krepon on the field and on us personally. He will be greatly missed, and his importance and mentorship in the field of arms control cannot be understated. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

As the President visited various states in the Middle East, Jeffrey and Aaron sat down to eulogize the JCPOA renegotiation attempts as they slowly slide farther off the rails. Iran's programs continue and it looks like the U.S. is preparing to continue into the sanctions and containment realm, as Israel continues its seemingly ineffective hardware sabotage campaign. The North Korea-ification of Iran-US relations continues, unabated. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

After a brief hiatus due to Jeffrey's house catching on a lil' bit of fire, the Arms Control Wonk team is back to take a look at North Korea's triple missile launch and looming possible nuclear test. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the North Korean nuclear testing schedule, the expectations of precision that open source intelligence has generated, and what it means when half of the attendees at a nuclear conference all simultaneously leave... Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of the institutional hurdles the U.S. must overcome for a long-lasting commitment to space-based arms control. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Gerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century. The group sits down to talk through China's DF-21D and DF-26 missiles. Do they work? What do they do? What can they actually accomplish? How do navies adapt to the new threat environment? The group talks through the realities and the puffed up hype around these systems, and how they actually impact strategy and naval operations. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

...get a pod. North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests. Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good OSINT in the form of Jeffrey's talented class of missile modelers. Jeffrey also predicts a Hwasong-17 test is coming, and as this episode is being published, he is proven right. Next episode: North Korean Test Bingo Cards. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics. Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence, wherein an individual actor's rationality can be gauged by the company they keep. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could've deterred Russia "if it had never given up nuclear weapons." But they never "had" nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the Cold War, and the "return" of those weapons to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jasmine Owens, Lead Organizer and Policy Coordinator at the Physicians for Social Responsibility, joins Jeffrey to discuss social justice and nuclear weapons. Jasmine and Jeffrey attack the tough issues facing culture within the nuclear security field, embedded bias, and the disproportionate impact these weapons have on minority and oppressed communities. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Dr. Michal Onderco, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam, joins Jeffrey to talk about his new book, Networked Nonproliferation: Making the NPT Permanent. Dr. Onderco and Jeffrey talk about the history of the NPT extension, interpersonal relationships in diplomacy, and the methods and study of diplomacy in nuclear treaty-making. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

After North Korea tested its new MaRV twice, a bunch of weird news stories suddenly started breaking about U.S. responses. Flights were grounded in parts of the West Coast, there was a shelter in place order up at the missile defense site in Alaska, and it seemed like someone may have mistook the North Korean test for an ICBM launch. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the U.S. early warning and ballistic missile defense system, pressures of decisionmaking, and what happens when missile warnings are misunderstood in high-pressure environments. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

North Korea tested what appears to be a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), which could support a tactical nuclear mission and subvert ballistic missile defenses. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the difference between a MaRV and a hypersonic glide vehicle, discuss the development of the DPRK missile industry, and walk through North Korea's tactical nuclear ambitions. Other Episodes of Interest: Glide or Die: When the DPRK tested what appears to be a hypersonic glide vehicle Iranian Nuclear Talks are Not Going Well: Jeffrey visits our friends on the War on the Rocks Warcast to talk about Iran's recent space launch attempt. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

North Korea seems to be taking its new, small, solid propellant missiles to the sea, after taking them to the show. Perennial friend of the pod and aficionado of all things submarine Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute of Strategic Studies returns to talk to Jeffrey about what it is that the DPRK tested this time, whether it is the same missile that the DPRK showed off at its recent military expo, and what their submarine program is looking like in 2021. Previous Episodes with Joseph Dempsey: North Korea's New SLBM: The Pukguksong-3 North Korea's Missile Submarine(s): Part 3 North Korea's Missile Submarine(s): Part 2 North Korea's Missile Submarine(s): Part 1 North Korea's New Missiles Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

This is a complicated one. According to Demetri Sevastopulo at the Financial Times, China tested something that sounds a whole lot like FOBS with an HGV. Something that orbited the globe and dropped a hypersonic glide vehicle against a target. Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott try to figure out what actually was tested (HGV-FOBS? An intercontinental glider? A super-lofted ballistic missile??), talk about what it means to be a "fractional orbital bombardment system" versus a regular ballistic missile, and why the pursuit of perfect missile defenses may make us all less secure. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Glide or die, baby. The North Koreans, on a real cavalcade of missile debuts reminiscent of 2017, have tested what they claim to be a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Which means they are just checking off their list of goals, leaving a nuclear powered submarine, a MIRV, and a solid propellant ICBM as the main untested-but-announced capabilities.... While it isn't 100% clear that they actually tested an HGV, the team dissects what it might have been, if a DPRK HGV is realistic, and why HGVs and other missile-defense-defeating technologies fit the DPRK's national strategy perfectly. Oh, and FOBS makes an appearance, almost entirely to give Scott nightmares. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Put another pot of coffee on because it is launch week again. North Korean launched two missiles off of the back of a train this week, right as the president of South Korea watched their own tests of a submarine launched ballistic missile, stealthy air launched cruise missile, ballistic missile test, supersonic anti ship cruise missile test, large diameter solid motor test, and good lord it is a hard week to keep up. Oh right and North Korea is expanding its uranium enrichment facilities. One day we'll catch up to AUKUS. Jeffrey and Scott try to keep up and parse through everything that is happening, from why trains are a strategically sensical choice for North Korean missile basing to why the South Korean conventional SLBM makes us very, very nervous. Recent Episodes of Note: North Korea's recent long-range strategic land-attack cruise missile test: https://armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com/not-lackin-lacms North Korea's plutonium reprocessing campaign: https://armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com/boiling-fish-at-yongbyon Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The DPRK tested a cruise missile, but this time it was a big one. Like "INF Treaty" big, if that term still meant anything. The DPRK announced that it launched a 1500 km range cruise missile, after months of hints that a strategic nuclear-capable cruise missile was in the works. While it technically does not fall under the United Nations Security Council resolutions sanctioning DPRK ballistic missile and space tests, it is a huge concern, especially since it is probably meant to carry a nuclear payload one day. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the tech, cruise missile proliferation, how the DPRK has been signaling this capability for a while, and why this is a very serious capability that needs to be addressed. And, of course, they make fun of the JLENS. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Looks like Yongbyon is running a little hot. The IAEA has announced that it believes the DPRK is conducting a plutonium reprocessing campaign at Yongbyon. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why the DPRK would want to do this. What could the mystery be? Why would the DPRK reprocess plutonium? For nukes. It's for nukes. Basically like the DPRK has been saying. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and his team fear no cloud. Working with Capella Space to acquire cloud-piercing synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, the MIIS team has been monitoring eternally-cloudy Novaya Zemlya, Russia, for evidence of Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile tests. Evidence pointed to the Burevestnik test site being revived after the previous failures, and the team started utilizing radar returns to obviate the satellite-imagery-frustrating weather that plagues Russia's northern nuclear test ranges. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss remote sensing technical education, and the value of teaching practical imagery interpretation, technical processing skills, and how to evaluate imagery at a non-technical level. Previous Episodes: Discussing the tragic accident during the previous Burevestnik test. Links of Note: Zachary Cohen's CNN article on monitoring the Burevestnik. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Bad news abounds for Iranian and US returns to JCPOA compliance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the frustration around breakout time requirements, the timidity of the Biden administration, and the shortfalls of the wait-and-see approach. Links of Note: The Economist article on OSINT, including Arms Control Wonk and the Slack channel, which is filled with only the most brilliant and beautiful of people, whom all listeners should aspire to emulate: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/08/07/open-source-intelligence-challenges-state-monopolies-on-information Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen with the Federation of American Scientists have tracked down what appears to be a second field of missile silos near Hami, Xinjiang. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott gather up to discuss the rapidly increasing number of missile silos, what this means for the shell game theory, how many missiles and warheads could be in the PLARF's ICBM arsenal, and how China strategically responds to U.S. ballistic missile defenses. Links of Note: Our first episode on the first field of silos: https://armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com/nuclear-silos-in-the-chinese-desert Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

American weapons systems need better names. Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Jeffrey to talk about just what it is that inspires soldiers: Legendary, heroic, and historical names, not descriptive acronyms and jargon. What, are ALCM and JASSM not as sexy as Hades or Pluton? Tom explains his philosophical and classical background, and the inspiration for his article in War on the Rocks about giving U.S. weapons systems respectable names more befitting of their purpose. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Decker Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis's team at CNS have found 119 silos for ICBMs out in the deserts of China. That's the largest expansion of PRC silos in history, by far, but it isn't totally clear what is going on, and whether each of these Bouncy Castles of Death represents a new missile or if there are some decoys in the mix... Aaron and Jeffrey discuss how Decker found these silos out in the middle of the desert, whether each silo has its own missile or if this is a Shell Game with empty silos and decoys, and how this is going to impact arms control incentives in the very near future. Further Reading: Jeffrey's op-ed in Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/30/china-nuclear-weapons-silos-arms-control/ Catherine Dill's article on new test silos at Wuzhai: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1205826/open-silos/ Decker Eveleth and Scott LaFoy's article on possible silos at Sundian: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208828/possible-icbm-modernization-underway-at-sundian/ Hans Kristensen's articles on DF-41 training silos at Jilantai, which constituted the foundational discovery of DF-41 silos in open source research: https://fas.org/blogs/security/2019/09/china-silo-df41/ https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/02/plarf-jilantai-expansion/ Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey's team is at it again. This time, they (and Jonathan McDowell!) caught an unannounced (and failed) Iranian space launch attempt and have now caught what appears to be a second unannounced (and failed) Iranian space launch attempt. The failed launch detection was covered by Zachary Cohen and Oren Liebermann at CNN, who were kind enough to get the Pentagon to confirm that the first launch did, in fact, fail. We're still waiting to hear about that second one though... Jeffrey and Scott walk through Iran's textbook space launch preparations, how Jeffrey's team tracked the preparation and launch, and how one assesses that a rocket flight failed in absence of a big, obvious explosion. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.

Is the Nuclear Posture Review something worth doing, or a massive waste of time and political capital? Jeffrey and Aaron vote "waste." The NPR takes up a ton of time, leaves policy on autopilot during its duration, and burns a ton of bandwidth that could be used for actual reflection and policy change. But what is more valuable? No Review at all? An Integrated Deterrence Review? The team walks through the pitfalls of the NPR, propose some modest alternatives, and outline a possible alternative mission for the Missile Defense Agency.... Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The hype is real. Maybe it's a branding thing, maybe people forget ballistic missiles are a thing, maybe nobody thinks "glider force" sounds cool. But whatever the reason, people keep calling hypersonic glide vehicles fast compared to existing missile systems. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss hypersonic weapons, what people keep getting wrong about them, and why the D5 missile is so dang cool. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

On April 20, an Israeli twitter user posted a video of a large smoky cloud to his Twitter account with the comment "A mysterious explosion in northern Israel." Jeffrey and his team tracked down the "mysterious explosion," identifying it as a solid rocket motor test for an unknown missile or space system. Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the team's methodology, how they found the site, how they identified that it was a rocket motor, and how CNS's knowledgebase of missile industrial facilities assists in rapidly disproving disinformation. https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1211676/israeli-rocket-motor-test/ Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

North Korea has been active the past few weeks, launching a set of cruise missiles (probably just coastal defense systems) and a separate set of ballistic missiles (which look like stretched KN23 short-range ballistic missiles) a few days later. But these events were received very differently by the Biden administration and analysts. Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott discuss why these events were received so differently, what the deal is with North Korea's newest short-range ballistic missile system, and what the Biden administration may be getting itself into with its denuclearization policy. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.

Biden campaigned on rejoining the JCPOA, but some of that enthusiasm has dried up since he took office. Aaron and Jeffrey debate what's going on, strategies for negotiating re-joining the JCPOA, and the fallacy of letting the perfect get in the way of the good as people begin to advocate for "waiting for a better deal" again. Also, it is a good time to start listening to Season Two of The Deal, available at IranDealPodcast.com and Apple Podcasts. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

President Biden has extended New START for five more years. But what are we going to do with those years? How to we actually advance stability? Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the steps necessary to secure stable, effective arms control treaties, the history of arms control, and the importance of tacking missile defenses alongside offensive systems. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Iran unveiled a new (mostly) solid-propellant space launcher, the Zoljanah! But it looks....different than the other space launchers. Besides having a new fuel type, the Zoljanah may not have many IRGC or military fingerprints on it, indicating that the Iranian solid-propellant programs are robust and expansive. Jeffrey and Aaron talk Iranian space programs, civilian vs. military control of research programs, and, of course, why a solid-propellant launcher makes a difference. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Israel maintains a technologically advanced but understudied ballistic missile arsenal. Jeffrey and Aaron dive into the French, South African, and American influences on the arsenal, how to model the Jericho missile families, and the history of the Israeli ballistic missile program. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

North Korea put on *another* parade, during the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea. Kim Jong Un dropped some fascinating details about what the DPRK has allegedly completed, and what they may be working on, including a possible nuclear submarine and intermediate-range cruise missile. Then, he paraded some new missile hardware, including a new solid-fuel SLBM and some new short range systems. And, to top it off, Jeffrey and Dave Schmerler found that the SLBM-test platform in Nampho harbor has been moved for a possible refurb, meaning SLBM tests may be possible in the near future. Jeffrey and Scott try to parse out what the North Koreans have built, what they showed us at the parade, and what is to come this year. For our episode on the gigantic new as-of-yet-unnamed ICBM (nicknamed the Hwasong-16 or the Hwasong-X), click here. For our episode on the October 2020 Military Parade in North Korea, click here. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.

On Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. Pacific Time, the U.S. Air Force, in partnership with the Strategic Capabilities Office, conducted a flight test of a prototype conventionally-configured ground-launched ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. But just what the heck did the DOD actually test? Jeffrey and team turn their analytic methods towards figuring out exactly what this strange, Frankenmissile was, and the open-source research lessons that can be gleaned from academic papers and unclassified laboratory newsletters. And yes, we know it is actually Frankenstein's Missile, Frankenstein was actually the prime contractor. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Nancy Pelosi has indicated that Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has assured her that there are safeguards against an "unstable president" accessing "the launch codes" and launching a nuclear strike. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why that is wrong (and/or illegal), what the actual launch process is, and what the political strategy behind Nancy Pelosi's message may be. Previous Entries in The Donald and The Nuclear series on executive power and nuclear weapons: The Donald, The Nuclear, and No First Use 2 Donald 2 Nuclear The Donald and The Nuclear 3: Tokyo Drift The Donald and The Nuclear Goblet of Fire (And Fury) The Donald and The Nuclear V: The Senate Strikes Back The Donald and The Nuclear VI: Pushin' My Buttons Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and crew have been busy at work modelling the giant ICBM that the DPRK paraded in October 2020, as well as tracing out its possible industrial provenance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through modelling methodologies, North Korean industrial espionage, and how to build robust public policies to account for uncertainty. For our episode on the October 2020 Military Parade in North Korea, click here. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

At the end of this awful year, Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the future of arms control, the future of analytics, and the future of the pod. 2021 will have a lot going on: New START expiration or extension, new facilities in Iran, figuring out what the heck the North Koreans are doing, what's going on with anti-satellite missiles, and more. Head over to the Arms Control Wonk slack channel to voice your opinion on what topics we should prioritize, because we have a lot of them and not everything's getting covered! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and Aaron share stories about the life of Dennis Gormley, renowned proliferation scholar and celebrated professor. Dennis's work on cruise missile proliferation, tacit knowledge, and industrial expertise was foundational to the field of proliferation studies, and he was a caring, dedicated educator. Dennis was a good friend and mentor, and is greatly missed.

On 10/10/2020, the 75th Anniversary of the Founding of the Worker's Party of Korea, the DPRK showed of a lot of missiles. Again. In addition to all the stuff they've been testing over the last two years, they introduced a new, oddly shaped solid-propellent missile, the Pukguksong-4, and what appears to be the largest TEL-based liquid propellant ICBM in history. Kim Jong Un gave the clearest declaration of DPRK nuclear policy to date. Jeffrey, Anne, and Scott sit down for Anne's last official episode and talk about what we saw, what that it means for North Korea's nuclear posture, and what the DPRK's nuclear policy and strategy actually is. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Melissa Hanham, director of Datayo and Deputy Director of the Open Nuclear Network, joins Jeffrey and Scott to talk about Datayo, a project aimed at reducing nuclear risks and fostering a transparent, collaborative, and high-quality analytic information environment. Scott fawns over Datayo's video annotation capabilities for military hardware tracking, and Melissa talks about how much bandwidth Jeffrey's satellite imagery habits actually eat up. Everybody competes to correctly do the podcast's outro. Go check out Datayo! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Now that a few episodes have dropped, Anne and Jeffrey talk about Jeffrey's new project, The Deal. Jeffrey chronicles how researchers like Corey Hinderstein chased down data before satellite imagery was so easily available, Wendy Sherman's incredible memory for names, and just how many BBs Jeffrey has in his car. The Deal tells the story of the Iran nuclear deal: how it came together, how it fell apart, and what that means for the rest of us. Hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He tweets @armscontrolwonk. Learn more at http://IranDealPodcast.com and listen in at Apple Podcasts.

How do we step back from the brink and reduce the very real threat that nuclear weapons continue to pose? Nuclear weapons continue to impact people's lives, even if they are sometimes treated as historical threats of a prior era. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down with Lisa Perry and Dr. William Perry, 19th Secretary of Defense, to discuss their work conducting interviews with and chronicling the personal stories of presidents, cabinet members, congressmen, nuclear physicists, atomic bomb survivors, military officials, and activists in their podcast, At the Brink, and through the William J. Perry Project. They've pulled together incredible personal stories and interviews with individuals involved in the negotiations of the Iran Deal, the exfiltration of bomb-grade uranium from Kazakhstan, and the implementation of the Nunn-Lugar program that reduce former Soviet nuclear stockpiles by over 4,000 devices. And, of course, a history of nuclear and missile crises with North Korea, featuring one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Links of Note: At The Brink, and its parent project, the William J. Perry Project,

In 2002, Corey Hinderstein, a young research analyst, follows a hunch after a routine press conference in Washington, D.C. The results of her scavenger hunt sparked a diplomatic crisis that stretched more than a decade, lasted through two presidencies, and ended with a deal that, depending on whom you ask, either "makes our country, and the world, safer and more secure" or is "a horrible deal that should never, ever have been made." The Deal tells the story of the Iran nuclear deal: how it came together, how it fell apart, and what that means for the rest of us. Hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He tweets @armscontrolwonk. Learn more at IranDealPodcast.com and listen in at Apple Podcasts.

The Deal: The story of the Iran nuclear deal; how it came together, how it fell apart, and what that means for the rest of us. Hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. You can find The Deal on Apple Podcasts or your preferred podcast platform.

In 2018, the US and the UAE conducted a joint military exercise called Diamond Tempest. While looking through still images and videos from the exercise, Jeffrey and his colleagues at CNS thought it would make a great case study. Just how much can we learn using open source tools? They were able to piece together a detailed timeline of the exercise and figure out which bits of footage didn't belong. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The war in Yemen has seen the highest usage of ballistic missiles since the Iraq War, and the highest usage of ballistic missile defense assets in any conflict, offering a preview of any future conflicts with Iran. Aaron and Scott talk about a new CSIS report, The Missile War in Yemen, the utility and difficulties in producing accurate datasets on ballistic missile usage in Yemen, and the operational lessons learned by air and missile defense strategists during the ongoing conflict in Yemen. Scott unironically uses the phrase "theory of missile power." Links of Note: Ian Williams and Shaan Shaikh's Missile War in Yemen, CSIS: https://missilethreat.csis.org/report-the-missile-war-in-yemen/ Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Another day, another suspected nuclear facility in North Korea. Anne and Jeffrey discuss the Wollo-ri Suspected Nuclear Warhead Manufacturing Facility. They discuss how the CNS team has monitored this site since 2015, the satellite imagery analysis that went into it, and Ankit Panda's impressive sourcing. They also discuss the immediate pushback, claims that this site is a training facility, and the open-source methods used to evaluate this site. Arms Control Wonk post on the Wollo-Ri Facility, by Catherine Dill, David Laboon, Jeffrey Lewis, and Dave Schmerler: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1209644/wollo-ri-nuclear-facility/ CNN reporting on the Wollo-Ri analysis: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/north-korea-nuclear-facility-wollo-ri-satellite-images/index.html Daily NK report claiming Wollo-Ri is not a nuclear facility: https://www.dailynk.com/english/source-nuclear-pyongyang-just-school/ Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!