Multifamily Thaw meet 2026 Supply Wave

In this episode, we unpack why the narrative about a "Wall Street Ban" on homeownership is rooted in a myth, and why standard rent growth data is currently "lying" to the market. With renewal rates hitting a historic 57%, the gap between headline asking rents and actual portfolio performance has never been wider. We also debate the controversial Yardi forecast that challenges the "supply is cresting" consensus and break down the winners and losers in the Texas market divergence. In this episode, we cover: • The February Pivot: A breakdown of the "rare convergence" including H.R. 6644 (passed 390–9), the 2.4% CPI print, and the delayed reaction in the 10-Year Treasury. • The "Wall Street Ban": We analyze Trump's Executive Order targeting institutional investors. Is it a game-changer or political theater? We look at the data showing large firms own just ~2% of single-family rentals and discuss the critical Build-to-Rent (BTR) carve-out. • The 57% Surprise: Why widely reported "negative rent growth" in the Sun Belt is wrong. With renewal rates at 57% (up from 51% in 2015), we explain why blended performance is holding up even in "soft" markets. • The Supply Debate: CoStar says the pipeline is down 47%, but Yardi just revised 2026 completions up by 6.4%. We discuss who is right and what it means for your underwriting. • Texas Market Split: A tale of three cities—Austin (rents down 4.8%), San Antonio (the quiet recovery), and Houston (the projected top performer). • Capital Markets: Why "the bears have gone into hiding" despite persistent negative leverage, and why AI operations (EliseAI, Bilt) are suddenly attracting massive Series E capital. Key Data Points: • CPI Shelter Inflation: +0.2% MoM (continuing deceleration). • Renewal Rate: 57% of all leasing activity (historic high). • Absorption: Q1 2025 hit a record 138k units; demand remains robust. • Supply: Multifamily starts are down 40%+ from peak.