4. Market review – Wealthsteading Podcast

Episode 402:  There’s been a notable shift in Stock Market technical indicators since Friday’s “unexpectedly” high employment numbers. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 401:  Money is the most expensive in 16 years and the 3rd highest in over a generation.  Regardless of Fed monetary policy, if corporate profits continue to decline, then just as during the DotCom Bubble and the Housing Bubble, the Stock Market would be extremely likely to have a hefty decline.  [-50% peak-to-trough] Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 399:  Single family residential real estate should fare much better than most people are expecting and not likely to see a 2008 style price collapse.  Industrial real estate should continue to grow at a substantial pace as manufacturing continues to onshore.  The negative areas of real estate will likely be brick & mortar retailers, office space and potentially short term vacation type rental properties (Airbnb).     Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 398:  The Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy to burn off excesses in the economy and given the rebound of unprofitable MEME stocks, I think there’s ample underbrush to scorch. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 394:  For me and my money, I want liquidity, so I’m using cash equivalent money market funds, which are currently paying at or near 4%.  If you don’t have access to a money market fund, other good alternatives are 401k/403b Stable Value Funds or the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) G Fund. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 392:  The seasonal Santa Claus rally is in full effect, but I think two of the three drivers are head fakes. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 389:  Of the several factors holding the Market back, I think the most critical is lack of sustainable stock leadership. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 388: The economy is hungover from the excesses of the pandemic. Hangovers are painful. They’re not fun. But they’re not fatal. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 383:  The S&P 500 is back in rally mode, retracing more than half of the distance from the Bear market peak-to-trough.  I remain cautiously optimistic, but beware of the bounce in highly speculative stocks…eventually fundaments matter. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 382: Speaking of apprenticeship, check out my recent visit to the Homesteady homestead: https://youtu.be/Df5UB7h0Bxg Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 380:  How the stock market performs at the end of each week is an important nuanced signal that can indicate investor sentiment.  Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 379:  Second quarter earnings will be forthcoming…pay attention to forward earnings estimates, but regardless of what CEOs say, know that June’s PMI indicates an expanding economy. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 373: The Stock Market has been selling off for 6 weeks…here’s what I’m doing. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————

Episode 368:  Value is a better word than cheap, but it isn’t as good of an attention getter.   Here are five large cap stocks that I own and I believe they are valuable because they have a favorable price to future growth ratio:  GE, GS, IBM, MU & SCHW. ——————————————————

Episode 362:  Contrary to the Wall Street myth, bonds and specifically bond funds are not “safe”.  There are a number of risk factors, and today’s dominant risk is a rising interest rate environment. ——————————————————

Episode 356: Ignore the crisis du jour, and fortify your portfolio with quality, diversification, and especially US equities. ——————————————————

Episode 355: How should you handle an individual stock collapse?  In this episode I’ll discuss how I’m dealing with a 80% loss in SelectQuote. ——————————————————

Episode 351:  The way that 2022 is beginning is likely the way it will end…volatile & profitable.  In this episode I discuss why I believe that stock valuations can support further growth in the economy and the stock market. ——————————————————

Episode 346: I’m not at all concerned about the stock market selloff that happened on Black Friday. In fact, the rally will likely continue even longer, because now the FED will be more hesitant to raise interest rates. In this episode I discuss the two primary drivers of COVID inflation…and neither have anything to do with FED monetary policy. This temporary, transient inflation is being caused by: lack of Immigration Inheritance…the greatest generational transfer of wealth in history. ——————————————————

Episode 344: Stocks are at record highs at the same time that 3rd Qtr GDP was way below estimates. Join me today as I discuss free market economics along with a stock market review. ——————————————————

Episode 340: There wasn’t a stock market correction in September and I think it’s highly unlikely there will be one in October. In this episode I’ll highlight names of companies that I own that have done well during this period of “seasonal volatility”. ——————————————————

Episode 339:  My mantra hasn’t changed…buy the dip.  In this episode I’ll discuss positive harbingers for the stock market, including how hotel stocks like Hilton and Marriott are outperforming the general stock market. ——————————————————

Episode 338:  The media narrative this month is that a September or October stock market correction is inevitable.  Maybe…maybe not. ——————————————————

Episode 336: Small Caps & ReOpening Trade stocks have been underperforming…but I remain optimistic and continue to “buy the dip”.  The two factors that are driving the most fear right now are mutually exclusive- 1) ReOpening slowdown due to COVID Delta Variant & 2) Federal Reserve tightening the money supply by tapering next month.  Logic dictates that these two events can’t happen simultaneously, because if the economy is slowing, then the FED won’t taper. ——————————————————

Episode 334:  Since August 2020 the S&P 500 has climbed a COVID wall of worry consistently putting in new record highs.  I expect that to continue, with temporary bouts of turbulence, along with limited upside potential as we close out 2021.  However, I think vast amounts of opportunity still exist in the more value oriented, cyclical and ReOpening favored stocks that have taken a dip on fears of COVID Variants.  In this episode I’ll also discuss the difference between investing and speculation. ——————————————————

Episode 329: The latest Media driven fear factor is that variants of Covid will squelch the economic recovery. I think the anxiety will be short lived, just like last month’s propaganda about hyperinflation. NOTE to the Inflation Distraught: 10 Year Treasuries have dropped down to 1.3%, hardly an indicator of rampant inflation. ——————————————————

Episode 326:  The subtitle to this episode could be: Why lumber prices are so high but timber prices are so low. Bottom line, the media narrative of hyperinflation is much ado about nothing.  Over the short term, I don’t see the FED raising interest rates nor curtailing easy monetary policy.  Transitory inflation is being caused by short term shortages, not long lasting scarcity. The “experts” were wrong in 2018 when they said the “inverted yield curve” would cause a recession, and they’re wrong now about hyperinflation.   For a historical perspective, listen to this episode from October 2018:  https://www.wealthsteading.com/276 ——————————————————

Episode 325: A lot of the financial news coverage is negative focusing on shortages and price & wage inflation. But technically I think the major indexes are performing well and a great deal of opportunity still exists in the ReOpening Stocks. ——————————————————

Episode 324: In this episode we’ll look at current market conditions in light of investor psychology and especially drill down into the reasons why YOU keeping missing opportunities in the stock market. ——————————————————

Episode 322:   Did you miss the post-election stock market rally?  Well, the easy money has already been made, but there are still MANY opportunities.  In this episode I discuss potential that still exist in the COVID90 portfolio. ——————————————————

Episode 320: The rotation rally looks like it has fizzled. The S&P 500 keeps failing at its 50dma. That’s a good indication that the market is headed lower. ——————————————————

Episode 319: The stock market has fallen for three straight weeks. There are mixed signals that this selloff could simply be a Rotation out of overbought Tech stocks and into Value and Cyclicals.  On the other hand, with over 41% of the S&P 500 already in a Bear market, maybe the Correction has just begun. ——————————————————

Episode 316: The market took a big tumble today. Is this just a normal September swoon? Or are we headed for a more drastic correction? ——————————————————

Episode 314:  The Market has been incredibly resilient over the past month but I believe it could easily stumble into a rapid decline if investor sentiment turns sour.  In this episode I discuss the rationale for prudent investing and give specific examples of why I recently purchasing Tyson Foods and also lessons learned from swing trading the Great Recession of 2008. —–

Episode 313:  The COVID death toll is over 100K, unemployment is nearing 20%, and protesters are rioting and burning the cities…yet the stock market keeps going up. Will this rebound rally continue? Or are we headed for a major downturn this summer? I’m concerned that just as the market was oversold with COVID hysteria, now there’s irrational exuberance about the re-opening of the economy. —–

Episode 311: In this episode I discuss how I’m planning to re-balance my portfolio to take advantage of what I believe will be an inevitable recovery. —–

Episode 307:  Wuhan coronavirus is still in the news but the S&P 500 is setting record highs.  WHY?  There are a number of reasons this market is so resilient- short covering, Chinese monetary policy, and most importantly the growth and profitability of the Tech sector. —–

Episode 302:  The S&P 500 closed above 3120 for the first time, continuing a six week winning streak.  In this episode I’ll discuss the next 7% move, which could be either Up or Down. ————————————————————–

Episode 301:  Today the S&P 500 set a new, all-time record high.  That’s in spite of all the fear over non-existing threats like the inverted yield curve.  Listen in for where I think the market is headed and why I remain optimistic. ————————————————————–

Episode 300:  In this episode I give a very simple example of the difference between an existential threat and a harmless policy decision problem. ————————————————————–

Episode 299:  Over the past eight trading sessions the S&P 500 has surged to within 1% of a record high.  There are several explanations for the rally, with the primary reason being gestures coming out of China.  Will this uptrend hold or is it just a dead cat bounce?  All this and more in this episode. ————————————————————–

Episode 295:  Today the S&P500 dropped 3% on fears of an inverted yield curve.  It’s been an extremely volatile two weeks, with switchbacks almost every other day.  In this episode I’ll review the key events driving the turbulence and explain the entry point that I’m looking for to buy this dip.

Episode 293:  Today the FED cut rates and postponed their Quantitative Tightening program.  The move was much anticipated and therefore we saw a typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction.  The S&P500 was down over 1% and broke below 3000. Should you be worried?  I’m not.  All that and more in this episode. HEY- would you please do me a favor?  Earlier this year in Europe, I was interviewed by an Industrial association and a clip has been posted to YouTube.  I’d like to drive some traffic there and would really appreciate if you’d watch it.  It’s less than 5 minutes and my comments are extremely relevant to the impact of Robotics/Automation on the global economy.  Please watch:  https://youtu.be/LZ4xcsLaH8s ————————————————————– For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 292:  The month of June has been a textbook example of a counter trend rally.  The S&P500 dropped around 7% from the April high, bottomed out on June 3, then went on to make an all time new record high. In this episode I’ll discuss what happened and signs to look for to identify future market rallies.  And I’ll also talk about my current positions in the Banking sector and why I believe they’re undervalued. Here’s the link to Nelson Trout’s Adventures YouTube playlist about coin hunting:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZszRRXDtNGU&list=PLUx3m9PGkSirhBTu5D0fZ-B0NhZAIiCSu ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation  available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles:  http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at:  http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE:  www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 287:  Market Volatility is BACK !  Should you panic or buy the dip?  For now, I think it’s premature to buy; however, overall the markets do seem like they’re behaving in an orderly manner. Before I would add to my US holdings, I’d need to see a more substantial drop. But as has been the case for some time, I do continue to see opportunity in Emerging Markets and might even consider adding to my position if the index drops below its 200dma. Here’s the link to my interview on the Fathers After 50 Podcast: https://fathersafter50.com/john-pugliano/ ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation  available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles:  http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at:  http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE:  www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 285:  The S&P500 is near a record high and while it still has room to run, I’m starting to harvest some profits in the US, but for now don’t have any plans to sell International stocks. In this episode I want to caution against cult like hero worship of celebrities and “experts”.  People give way to much credence to what the Talking Heads say.  Pay no attention to what people say, watch what they do. As an example of elite conceit, I’ll play a few audio clips from the beloved Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation  available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles:  http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at:  http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE:  www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 284:  The stock market and indeed the global economy are likely to keep chugging along because of the trifecta of converging forces: China, the US and the Federal Reserve. ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation  available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles:  http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at:  http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE:  www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 281:  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward their growth forecast and warn of storm clouds gathering for the global economy.  Based on their previous agenda driven interpretation of data, I see this warning as a contrarian indicator to encourage investment in the Emerging Market sector. ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation  available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles:  http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at:  http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE:  www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 279: December 2018 was the worst stock market performance since the Great Depression…January 2019 is turning out to be one of the best. What’s driving the bipolar personality of this market?  Just the same old schizophrenic internal battle between fundamentals and investor sentiment. In my opinion, 2018 was characterized as a market driven down by irrationally poor investor sentiment, while the actual market conditions have been sound.  See this YouTube video for an illustration of S&P 500 fair market value:  https://youtu.be/36-148xJNBM Bottom line, I believe fundamentals are sound and for now, interest rates will remain moderate enough to keep things moving along. ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation  available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles:  http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at:  http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE:  www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2019 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–

Episode 278: The market is in full blown correction and within a few percent from a Bear market. Will it get worse before it gets better? I have no idea…and neither does anyone else. But I believe this market has solid fundamentals…which is what I’ll discuss in this episode. Related episode: #146 Walmart: Working thru a stock crash https://www.wealthsteading.com/146 ————————————————————– The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide to Profiting in the Age of Automation available at AMAZON and all fine bookstores. ————————————————————– 10 Wealth Building Principles: http://www.wealthsteading.com/category/wealth-building-principle/ Full archives are available at: http://www.wealthsteading.com ————————————————————- Subscribe to the Wealthsteading Podcast: via iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wealthsteading-podcast/id896417058 YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com/c/JohnPuglianoWEALTHSTEADING Prepare for retirement and gain stock market insight with money manager John Pugliano. For more information visit us at: www.wealthsteading.com or www.investablewealth.com Copyright © 2018 Investable Wealth, LLC. All rights reserved. This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering advice or recommendation of any security. This podcast does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice. The content is strictly the observations and opinions of Investable Wealth, LLC. The information in this podcast is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Investable Wealth, LLC is an investment advisory firm licensed in the State of Utah. ————————————————————–