More or Less

This is the first in the new series of the programme. There’s a well-established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?

This is the first in the new series of the programme. Tim Harford has been busy felling some ash tree statistics. He asks whether the UK could lose 30% of our woodland trees and did the ash die back disease really kill 90% of ash trees in Denmark? Plus, there’s a well established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?

There's not an obvious link between chocolate and Nobel prizes, but this did not stop news outlets around the world reporting the amount of chocolate a country consumes influences the number of Nobel prizes they will win. In many cases the scientific study was reported without question or comment. Ruth Alexander asks what this story tells us about the way the media reports scientific studies, and why the correlation between the two might be so strong. Also – it's often said that chopping boards or dishcloths have many more bacteria than toilet seat but is this really true?

This week Ruth Alexander looks at the other winner the US elections. Blogger and pioneer of aggregated polling, Nate Silver, predicted the outcome of the vote in every state one better than 2008. Others who have tried similar methods have also done well. Is this the dawn of a new era of poll prediction or just luck? Also, what effect did Hurricane Sandy have on death rates in places it hit and how did they differ from a normal day.

Conrad Black has claimed that 99.5% of prosecution cases in America end up in convictions. Is it really this high? We try to estimate how this compares to the number of convictions in other parts of the world.

This week six scientists and one ex-government official were sentenced to prison for multiple manslaughter following the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Part of the case against them was the falsely reassuring comments they made before the earthquake struck. Will this deter scientists from giving advice in the future?

Professor Al Roth tells Tim Harford about the work for which he has just been awarded the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

Predicting the global population: does anyone really know what’s going to happen?

Nate Silver tells us who will win the 2012 US election - and how he knows.

Only 100 cod are left in the North Sea according to newspapers. Is this the most wrong headline in More or Less history?

US Presidential Election factchecked. Is Mitt Romney right to say that 47% of Americans pay no tax? And how many jobs has President Obama really created?

Ruth Alexander investigates Sweden's high rape rate, and finds out which countries are the surprise leaders of the world kidnap league. Plus, who went home from the London 2012 Games with more medals – Olympians or Paralympians? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service

Why did the USA top the gold medals league in the Olympics, but not the Paralympics? Ruth Alexander examines the performance numbers of the London 2012 Paralympic Games and discovers which countries are punching above their weight, and which below. And Yan Wong tries to calculate how many opening bars are possible in music. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

‘What’s the number before infinity?’ asks Claudia, aged 4. We challenge Johnny Ball, legendary British TV presenter, to explain. And in celebration of the voice of Sesame Street’s Count von Count, Jerry Nelson, who’s died aged 78, there’s another chance to hear our 2009 interview with the Count, in which he revealed his favourite number: 34,969. Presented by Ruth Alexander, this programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia is the fourth African premier to die this year alone. Are African leaders more likely to die in office, than their counterparts elsewhere? Also: does marriage make economic sense?

Given that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.

Given that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.

Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?

Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?

There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.

There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.

Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not surprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?

Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not suprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?

The Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?

The Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?

How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? And we investigate the claim made by a leading charity that a million British children are "starving".

How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? After all, most financial trades are two way bets – and for every winner, there is a loser.

Do residents of the tiny micronesian island of Palau really smoke more cannabis, and drink more beer, than anyone else?

What is the highest-earning film ever if you adjust for inflation? And are birthdays killing us?

How fat could the global population become? Plus, Angela Saini considers whether statistics could settle the disputed result of the world title fight between boxers Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Is the likelihood of bumping into your boss on holiday greater than you think? Angela Saini and the More or Less team assess the probabilities of some of life's great coincidences. This edition of More or Less was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford interviews Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics. The author of Thinking, Fast and Slow describes the common mistakes people make with statistics.

How many images of Queen Elizabeth II have ever been created? And is Facebook really worth more than twice as much as every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange?

Is there any evidence to support the Beecroft Review's recommended changes to employment law? Plus: hard-working Greeks, infidelity, and Ben Goldacre on publication bias.

It’s a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible? And we answer a cry for help from an Australian listener who wants to be “a bit more average”.

Earlier in the year we found out that Greeks put in more working hours than Germans. But the Germans are more efficient. So that got us thinking: who works the longest hours in the world?

Troubled families, nursing numbers and the mathematical consequences of unneutered cats.

Would it be cheaper to send every Greek rail passenger by taxi instead? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Executive pay, chess and trouble on the Greek railway.

Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment being played out between Europe, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption? Plus, we investigate the height of North Koreans. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment playing out between Britain and the United States? How long have travellers been waiting to get through immigration at Heathrow? Plus, are you going to destroy the economy this bank holiday weekend?

The Midas Formula - In this week's More or Less: The story of Black-Scholes, the equation that transformed Wall Street – and the arguments over whether it made the world a better place, or helped cause the financial mess we have all been dealing with for the past five years. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Rain and drought in numbers, the formula which changed Wall Street and then the world forever - and why Conservative MPs used to be taller than their Labour counterparts.

Is the rate of species extinction exaggerated - or even unknowable? Producer: Richard Knight This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

We investigate the height of North Koreans, the width of police officers and rate of species extinction. Producer: Richard Knight

Are there really more Porsche Cayenne owners in Greece than taxpayers earning over 50,000 euros? Can there really be 30,000 chauffeur driven cars for the exclusive use of Italian politicians? Would it really be cheaper to send everyone by taxi than train in Greece and is youth unemployment in Spain really 50%? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson take a very close look at some widely reported Eurostats to see whether they stand up to scrutiny for out this week's More or Less. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The Royal Mail says UK stamp prices are still among the best value in Europe, despite an imminent steep price rise. Tim Harford finds out whether this is true, and compares the price of postal services around the world. Plus, he finds out how, after being invented by Indian mathematicians, modern numbers became established in the ancient Arab world and then journeyed on to Europe in what was essentially the first maths textbook ever written, "Liber Abaci". Its author was Leonardo of Pisa, better known as Fibonacci. Tim speaks to Keith Devlin, author of The Man of Numbers, to find out more. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Do Manchester United and other leading clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona benefit from biased refereeing decisions when they play in front of their home crowd? It’s a widely-held view, but Tim Harford challenges it with a look at the penalty statistics. Plus, he meets Hans Rosling of Gapminder at the Skoll World Forum: if you want to understand the world you’re living in, and how it will be different to the world your children and grandchildren will live in, listen to this interview. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

If there were perfect income equality worldwide, and everybody earned the same amount of money, how much would they earn? And what is the average employee wage across the world? Tim Harford answers both these questions. Plus, he attempts to rank the world’s top military forces. This edition of the programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Eating an extra portion of red meat every day is associated with an increased risk of death, says a new study. But what does this mean? A risk expert works it out for Tim Harford. Plus, which are the world’s largest employers? This edition of More or less was broadcast on the BBC World Service.