More or Less

The rise and fall of an online epidemic: How studying the spread of infectious diseases suggests the global drinking craze Neknomination will fizzle out. Drinkers post videos of their exploits and nominate others to do the same – but eventually the fad will run out of steam says epidemiologist Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Plus, while politicians debate how much to tax the rich in France and the UK– we look at which countries levy the highest and the lowest rates of income tax for both the wealthy and average worker. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Can economics help you find love? Tim Harford and the team look at the maths behind modern match-making. Economist Michele Belot from the University of Edinburgh explains why women are pickier than men at speed dating events. Plus - how analysing numbers from online dating agencies can help improve the chances of finding a partner: a personal story by Amy Webb, CEO of digital strategists Webbmedia Group. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

In the US, more people are dying from drug overdoses than from road traffic accidents and firearms. As headlines are filled with the news that actor Philip Seymour Hoffman died from an overdose recently, the team takes a look at the number of deaths from drug overdoses of both illegal and prescription drugs in the US and the rest of the world. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

How much do migrants cost or benefit a nation? Plus, planning a wedding - when you have friends and family all around the world and a finite number of places at the venue, how do you work out how many invitations to send? Tim Harford speaks to a couple who thought statistics might have the answer. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Chancellor George Osborne says a 50p tax rate does not bring in much revenue; Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls says it does. Tim Harford takes a look at why it is so hard to pin down how much tax is owed by the wealthy. Plus, have wages risen? How much does it cost to raise a child? Who do you invite to your wedding?

Do two large glasses of wine triple your risk of mouth cancer, as claimed on a health leaflet spotted by a sceptical listener? Tim Harford examines the difficulties of extracting smoking from the equation. Surprising as this may seem, one of the world's best tennis players of all time, Roger Federer, is also the worst ranked player on one scale. The scoring system makes it possible to lose a match despite winning more points, and Federer has lost the highest percentage of these types of games. Tim speaks to sports number-cruncher Ryan Rodenberg about why this might be the case. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

What does a detailed look at immigration statistics tell us about the benefits, or otherwise, of welcoming overseas citizens? Plus, is it true that by the age of 60, more than twice as many women as men are single, and that older men are often living with younger men? Do two large glasses of wine triple your risk of mouth cancer? And which of the world's best tennis players of all time is also the worst-ranked player in one sense. Tim Harford presents.

An apple-a-day will actually keep the doctors away, according to a study in the Christmas edition of the British Medical Journal. It generated headlines around the world. But were the media right to take the story so seriously? Tim interviews one of the study’s authors and critic Paul Marantz. And, mathemagical mind-reading: Jolyon Jenkins reveals the maths behind a classic long-distance mind-reading card trick. Presenter: Tim Harford. Producer: Ruth Alexander. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford discovers that health statistics contradict a report which says obesity is worsening. Plus, he fact-checks: armed police shooting statistics; reports that the UK's had the worst winter storms in 20 years; media reports about controversial Channel 4 programme, Benefits Street; a study that says an apple-a-day really keeps the doctor away.

In Iraq, estimates of the death count since the war started 2003 range from 100,000 to about one million. Tim Harford explores why such a range exists and what methods are used to count those killed during war. Meanwhile he discovers that Iraq's population has been growing strongly over the same period. Plus, mathematician and comedian Matt Parker presents his guide to the imperial measurement system. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Most deaths occur in this week of the year - Tim Harford asks why. He also asks: are there really two million millionaire pensioners in the UK, and how many people have died in Iraq since 2003? Plus, mathematician and comedian, Matt Parker, apologises for his previous apology.

A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees. Contributors: Dr Pippa Malmgren, President and founder of Principalis Asset Management; Merryn Somerset-Webb, Editor in Chief of MoneyWeek; Helen Arney, Comedian and Presenter. Producer: Ben Carter. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

When the government announced that fees charged by pension providers could be capped, some listeners were sceptical that the benefits could be as great as was being claimed. Tim Harford and Money Box presenter Paul Lewis explain why the numbers do add up. It's claimed that an average of 100,000 Christians die as martyrs every year; Ruth Alexander and Tim Harford fact-check the widely-quoted statistic. Plus, Number Hub mathematician Matt Parker presents his guide to imperial measures; is Britain's railway really Europe's 'most improved'? And when six cyclists died in just two weeks in London, was that a cluster in a random distribution, or a sign that something is systematically wrong with road safety in the capital?

A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees. Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Linda Yueh, BBC Chief Business Correspondent; Simon Singh, author of The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets. Producer: Ben Carter. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees. Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor for the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University; Linda Yueh, BBC chief business correspondent; Simon Singh, author of The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets; Dr Pippa Malmgren, president and founder of Principalis Asset Management; Paul Lewis; presenter of BBC Radio 4's Money Box programme; Dr Hannah Fry, Centre of the Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London; Merryn Somerset-Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek; Helen Arney, comedian. Producer: Ben Carter.

It has been reported that global wine supplies are running low. But shops still seem to be well-stocked. So, what is going on? Tim Harford fact-checks the claim. Plus, are the four festive football fixtures as crucial to Premier League teams as many claim? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

About 80,000 children will wake up homeless on Christmas Day, according to the charity Shelter. What exactly does that mean? Tim Harford explores the statistic. Plus, he fact-checks the news reports of a global wine shortage; and a magician, who exploits the maths of card shuffling, attempts to read his mind. Also, are the four festive football fixtures as crucial to Premier League teams as many claim? And, in tribute to the former BBC economics editor, Stephanie Flanders, listen to what was perhaps her finest broadcasting moment.

It is claimed white South Africans are being systematically killed because of the colour of their skin, but do the crime statistics back this up? No, explains Julian Rademeyer from Africa Check and Johan Burger from the Institute of Security Studies in Pretoria. Presenter: Ruth Alexander. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The publication of the latest international education league table has created waves around the world. From Shanghai at the top of the table to Peru at the bottom, the PISA rankings create a lot of discussion about the best way to teach children. In some countries the OECD-led ratings are taken so seriously that education policy has been changed to try to improve national performance. But is the league table really as definitive as many people believe? Ruth Alexander looks behind the numbers. Presenter/producer: Ruth Alexander This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Ahead of the 2014 World Cup draw next Friday, we look at world football rankings. How are Switzerland seeded when the Netherlands, Italy and England are not? The answer lies in the playing of friendly games, which can be incredibly unfriendly to your ranking if you play the wrong team at the wrong time. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Ruth Alexander speaks to a statistician at the forefront of cancer research, Professor Terry Speed. He has just been awarded the Prime Minister’s Prize for Science in Australia. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar has amassed 15,847 test runs, which is 2,500 more runs than any other batsman. But other ways have been devised to calculate cricketing greatness and the Little Master, as he has become known, does not feature as prominently in a lot of them. More or Less crunches the numbers. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

To what degree do our personal opinions cloud our judgement? Yale University researchers have attempted to detect and measure how our political beliefs affect our ability to make rational decisions. The study suggests that our ability to do maths plummets when we are looking at data which clashes with our worldview. Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter consider Professor Dan Kahan's findings. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

It is claimed an average of 100,000 Christians have died because of their faith every year for the past decade: and that this is an 'unreported catastrophe'. The Vatican has called it a credible number. But is it? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson report.

Women in their late thirties shouldn’t be as anxious about their prospects of having a baby as is commonly assumed, psychologist Jean Twenge argues. Tim Harford finds fertility experts agree. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford tells the story of how two economists who disagree with each other have been jointly awarded the Nobel Prize. Eugene Fama has shown that stock markets are efficient, while Robert Shiller has shown that they're not. Tim interviews both professors about their findings, and this apparent contradiction.

Tim Harford tells the story of the Hawthorne Experiments, one of the most famous social studies of the Twentieth Century. The finding – that workers are more productive if they are given attention - became known as the Hawthorne Effect. And he hears how the original data are now casting doubt on the legendary results. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Has the mosquito killed half the people who have ever lived? Tim Harford assesses the claim. Are 96 elephants a day being killed in Africa? Plus, a return to the subject of left-handers – could it be true that they're more likely to be criminal masterminds? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Are hundreds of young children visiting A&E because of alcohol? Plus, an update on the Trumptonshire economy. And has the mosquito killed half the people who have ever lived? Tim Harford presents.

"We just shut our eyes to the fact that the world's population is increasing out of control." Is broadcaster and naturalist Sir David Attenborough right about global population projections? And Tim Harford wonders whether it's true that Scotland is home to 20% of the world's redheads. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford examines the claim that NHS hospital patients are 45% more likely to die than US ones. Is Sir David Attenborough right that the world's population is increasingly out of control? And are 20% of the world's redheads in Scotland? Plus, the story of the Hawthorne Experiment, one of the most famous studies in industrial history.

'I accept every time I get in my car, there's a 20% chance I could die'. It's a line from the Formula 1 hit film, Rush. Spoken by racing driver Niki Lauda's character. Formula 1 was certainly a dangerous sport during the 1970s, but was it really that dangerous? Tim Harford and Hannah Barnes look at the data. Plus, is it true that it takes 1,000 years for a plastic bag to degrade? It's a popular claim, but More or Less finds the environmental facts about plastic bags are much less certain than that statistic suggests. This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

All pupils at infant schools in England are to get free school lunches from next September, but does the evidence prove free dinners improve results? 'I accept every time I get in my car, there's a 20% chance I could die' - it's a line from the Formula 1 hit film, Rush, but was it really true for 1970s racing drivers? The government wants shops to start charging for plastic bags and the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg says a plastic bag takes 1,000 years to degrade, but More or Less finds the environmental facts about plastic bags are much less certain than that statistic suggests. And do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risk of injury? Professor David Spiegelhalter goes through the numbers.

Almost a quarter of men in some Asian countries admit rape, it has been reported. The headlines have been sparked by a UN report, which looks at violence against women in parts of Asia. Are the numbers of rapists really this high? Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander look into the detail of the study. And, “Africa has a drinking problem” - so says Time Magazine. More or Less discovers a more mixed picture. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Psychologist Jean Twenge argues that women in their late thirties shouldn’t be as anxious about their prospects of having a baby as is commonly assumed. Tim Harford finds fertility experts agree. The economy’s turning a corner, the Chancellor says - Tim Harford takes a closer look at the numbers. Plus, sexual violence statistics in Asia; Britain’s ‘small island’ status rebutted; and does Africa really have a ‘drinking problem’? This is the edition of the programme first broadcast on BBC Radio 4.

As global leaders remain divided on whether to carry out a military strike against Syria in response to the apparent use of chemical weapons against its people, Tim Harford looks at the different claims made about how many people have been killed. And, apparently, it's a fact that if there's one thing that's worse for you than drinking, scoffing bacon sandwiches and smoking 80 unfiltered cigarettes a day, it's being left-handed. Left-handers die on average several years earlier than right-handers. Or do they? Tim gets to the bottom of a sinister statistic. This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford looks at the different claims made about how many people have been killed in the apparent chemical attack in Syria. The cost of care has forced a million families to sell their homes in the past five years, it’s been reported – but is it true? What can statistics tell us about the safety of Super Puma helicopters? Tim finds out whether left-handers really die nine years earlier than right-handers. And, he assesses the facts behind the claim that 300,000 attempts have been made to access pornographic websites at Parliament in a year.

Is it true that environmental problems will create 200 million migrants? Some politicians and environmentalists warn that this is the case. But migration experts say that the numbers are exaggerated. Tim Harford and Hannah Barnes investigate. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Has the government taken into account the worth of a badger's life in any cost-benefit analysis of the badger cull? It aims to kill 70% of badgers in the two cull zones, but Tim Harford discovers that such precision might be tricky. Plus, have blundering doctors and nurses really killed 13,000 patients in England? Shadow immigration minister Chris Bryant has warned that climate change is going to create 200 million more migrants but, More or Less discovers, migration experts disagree. And, always down with the cool kids, Tim discovers more about this buzz phrase, "big data". Might it be telling the world our darkest secrets?

People who drink more than 4 cups of coffee increase their chances of dying by 50%, it was reported recently. Given everyone’s chance of dying is already 100%, this seems a puzzle. What does the research really say, and how reliable are the findings? Plus, Ruth Alexander interviews economist and Expecting Better author Emily Oster, who used her statistical training to assess the evidence for herself on what effect coffee, alcohol and certain foods have on pregnant women. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford speaks to Persi Diaconis, top professor of maths and statistics and legendary magician. The Stanford University professor and co-author of the book "Magical Mathematics" has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below. This programme was broadcast on the BBC World Service. The interview was recorded in 2011.

If all the world’s population crowded together, where could we all fit? London? Texas? More or Less figures it out, and separates fact from fiction. And, as the soccer season returns, is it possible to measure the effectiveness of a team’s manager? We hear from David Sally, author of The Numbers Game. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

This week we find out what the most visited country in the world is and ask why aren’t they capitalising financially as well as their rivals. Plus we also investigate the complex - and often controversial - web of international extradition treaties. The programme hears from extradition lawyer Anand Doobay, from Peters and Peters, and Ted Bromund, a senior research fellow in Anglo-American relations in Washington DC. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The winner of this year's Tour de France, British rider Chris Froome, faced numerous questions about doping during the course of his victory. More or Less assesses his performance stats, and asks whether maths can measure whether cycling really has cleaned up its act and whether Froome is simply a victim of the ghosts of cycling's past. Dr Ross Tucker from The Science of Sport website gives us his views and we hear from physiologist Fred Grappe - the only man to see Froome's tour data. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

It’s claimed that Egyptians have taken part in the biggest uprising the world has ever seen. The nationwide demonstrations, which were followed by the removal of the president by the army, were certainly a massive show of people power. But were the crowds really as large as reported? Ruth Alexander assesses the evidence, and finds out why it is so difficult to count a crowd. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

The world of porn is often exaggerated but does it really make up 37% of the web? And after some high profile cases we ask whether the American football league has a crime problem? This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Life expectancy at birth around the world has increased by six years in the past two decades. But can this striking trend continue? Ruth Alexander looks at the data. This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Ruth Alexander examines US Secretary of State, John Kerry’s claim that 40% of the world’s workforce will be in Africa by 2050 and talks to the chief of the United Nations’ population division about its projections for 2050 and 2100. The programme also examines the final scene in The Fast and the Furious 6, the global box office sensation. How long must that runway have been at the end of the film? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Ruth Alexander examines the claim that every 15 seconds a child dies of hunger. It’s a popular statistic used by celebrities and charity campaigners in support of the Enough Food for Everyone IF campaign. It conjures up the image of millions of young children starving to death. But is this really the case? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Parents take note – what can numbers reveal about bringing up children? Plus, Tim Harford explore if men really do think about sex every seven seconds. This urban myth will not go away and yet pinning down any evidence proves a challenge for the More or Less team.