Trump mired in Iran as China, Russia reap gains

Cha Se-hyeon
The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.
The United States' war against Iran is increasingly turning into a quagmire, with China and Russia emerging as unexpected beneficiaries. The conflict has once again exposed the limits of coordination among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, often referred to as the "CRINKs." Although Iran, a central pillar of this alignment, is under attack, Beijing and Moscow have shown little willingness to provide active support. Their restrained posture mirrors earlier episodes, including the fall of Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime in 2024 and the arrest of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in January this year. Instead, both appear to be enjoying the strategic and economic windfall created by U.S. President Donald Trump's military gamble.

Iran, along with North Korea, has been one of Russia's most important backers in its war against Ukraine for more than four years. Once a major importer of Russian arms, Iran has since become a supplier. Beginning in the fall of 2022, Tehran provided Shahed drones to help compensate for Russia's shortage of precision-guided munitions. It also shared illicit trade networks, including a "shadow fleet" built over a decade to evade Western oil sanctions, helping sustain Russia's wartime economy. Bilateral trade between the two countries has more than doubled since the invasion of Ukraine, approaching $5 billion.
Yet Moscow has stopped short of providing Iran with the advanced fighter jets, air defense systems and precision-guided weapons it now urgently needs. Russia remains constrained by its own war in Ukraine. According to foreign media reports, its support has been limited to sharing intelligence on U.S. military assets in the Middle East and offering upgraded drone technology.
At the same time, Russia is benefiting from soaring energy prices. Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf states have pushed global oil prices higher. European Council President Antonio Costa has said that Russia may be the only clear winner of the Iran conflict. As Middle Eastern supply is disrupted and Western sanctions on Russian energy are effectively loosened, countries such as India and China are turning to Russian crude. The price of Russia's Urals oil, which averaged about $52 per barrel in January and February before the conflict, surged to between $70 and $80 in March. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia is earning at least 970 billion won per day from oil and gas exports. With Gulf infrastructure damage expected to take years to repair, these gains could continue for some time.
The war is also straining U.S. military capacity. As American and European support for Ukraine declines, Russia's spring offensive is gaining momentum. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is considering diverting weapons originally designated for Ukraine. These include air defense interceptors such as Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles, which had been ordered by NATO under its Priority Ukraine Requirements List program.
The scale of U.S. military expenditure underscores the strain. The Telegraph reported that in the first 16 days of the war, U.S. forces fired more than 11,000 munitions for $26 billion, or about 39 trillion won. This included 198 THAAD interceptors, 431 SM-2, SM-3 and SM-6 naval missiles, 402 Patriot missiles and 850 Tomahawk missiles. The Royal United Services Institute warned that if consumption continues at this pace, stockpiles of some critical weapons could be depleted within a month.
China, for its part, has maintained a formally neutral stance while voicing support for mediation efforts by countries such as Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan. Yet Beijing is also reaping indirect benefits. A depletion of U.S. military inventories risks creating broader security gaps. Catherine Thompson, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, warned that the Iran war could w...